fliball123 wrote: » The main reason for them not being able to buy is due to the landing restrictions. So how do you come to the conclusion that people who need and want a home can not be added to the list of people who are on the demand list and wanting a home. That is like saying I want and need to eat a chicken but I am on the vegan list? So do you think the country can afford to, at a time when we are going further in debt and dealing with the issues you have stated and add in the fact that for the last decade we have struggled to build enough houses for demand and now you think we can just give everyone a home for free maybe in your price drop theory your thinking 100% price drop? I say this as if a person who wants and needs a house is not considered on the demand for one then you think they will get it for free? that is the only conclusion I can make with what you are saying? KY, ESRI and KBC have got as many predictions wrong as they have right. There is not one expert in any of those companies who have experienced this. Sure who called the last crash we had experts from the above spinning a soft landing and lead to the government stating the same. So once again I adhere to the principle of no one knows whats going to happen. They have tightened while corona is going on and it will have little effect as there will be very few property transactions going on while corona is here. You only have to look at the process of buying a house, you need surveyors, solicitors, bank staff, an EA, plumbers, sparks, movers. Your not going to get all of these together to sort your move until after corona so why would anyone put themselves through the stress of moving at this particular time? As I say it will be a very low number. The restrictions will be removed once Corona is gone. So can you explain how someone who needs and wants a house cannot be considered on the demand side for a house?
Reversal wrote: » Point 1. I acknowledged there is societal need for 35K units a year. My point is there are not 35K people in a position to buy, not close to it. The SF surge was based on people who had lost all hope of buying. Yes they need a home, but they do not make up demand for houses to buy. And definitely won't after this recession. That is not evidence of demand to buy. It's evidence of a need for housing. Different things unfortunately, so is the inequality we see in Ireland now. The predictions on the economy and jobs are not my own. ESRI, EY, KBC and central bank are all singing off the same hymn sheet in recent days, i.e No bounce back, significant portion of jobs lost are gone for good. To many links to post but it's been all over the news. A quick Google will supply you with all the info you need. The banks have tightened lending already and will likely to do so in the future. This is well reported, again unless you've been living under a rock you surely have seen this reported? The number one evidence of bias is a subconscious tendency to ignore evidence. Seems to be getting more common in here recent days. It's like some haven't opened a newspaper in a month.
Mrisolation wrote: » Have a booking deposit down on a house for 466k just before covid 19 really kicked off. Contracts arrived this week, rang the EA and indicated due to the world being turned upside down im looking for a 10% discount, he was not impressed but will return to seller with offer, il prob loose the house now as there was a lot of interest and bidders but it's not the same world anymore
listermint wrote: » r There is no wealthy people buying right now, they will be waiting till the dust settles so why would you.....
Reversal wrote: » It's simple, 35k people need housing. Only 20k have any hope of getting a mortgage. ~15K are long term unemployed, unable to work, part time, low paid, ****ty contracts etc. The list goes on. Such is the unfair nature of Ireland lately. These people are never going to be part of buying demand. So this "pent up demand" will never keep the property market afloat in the coming depression. While Wlee need to build to 35k units a year to house every citizen. Nobody ever said there will be 35k buyers waiting with mortgage approval ready to pounce on everything thats goes on the market. This point is often misunderstood.
fliball123 wrote: » Well the UK have upped it to only dealing with people who have 40% deposits but dont worry some on here think property will take 100% drop and you can have 2 or 3 houses no bother
Reversal wrote: » A complete misinterpretation. Again, probably non intentional as you seem resistant to unsettling information. 15-20% drop over the next 18 months in not unlikely. 50% drops and 0-5% drops are both extremely unlikely at this point. If we are not going to take the current info on board we are best off waiting for 18 months to see how it panned out. That will be indisputable.
fliball123 wrote: » Where are you getting 35k need a house from this is a fraction of the number that need houses...The figure of 35k was a yearly figure of new houses needed to be built this year alone. Also on that point there has been a discrepancy of houses needed to houses built for the last decade as in we have built too few houses to house our population. Anyone on the long term unemployment or working part time or working a low paying job can phuck off with themselves if they think they deserve a house if you want a house go out and work for it or up skill or re-educate and get a better job. Anyone who cant work due to disability fair enough we need to look after vulnerable people. So I understand you a little more but can you tell me now where your getting the figure of 35k from that need housing? As I understand there is already over 100k on the housing list which is the mechanism used for people on disability and low wage that need housing?
beauf wrote: » If you had loads of money sitting in the bank you wold sit on it. The only exception the that is if a property comes up in a hard to get location, or a location that you want badly, or is ideal for you.
fliball123 wrote: » Where are you getting 15 to 20% from? I do agree with you waiting is best I have not advised anyone to buy or sell as that would be wrong I don't know how this is going to pan out and no one does
Pivot Eoin wrote: » Look at any of the posts predicting a big correction, loaded with thanks. .
snotboogie wrote: I've noticed a big trend of these predictions about the end of Multinationals in Ireland, posted with a sense of gleeful schadenfreude. I don't think you have the first clue about how bad things would get here if your predictions were to come true. This would not be snobby marketing hipsters at Google being brought down a peg or two followed by a utopia of cheap accommodation, it would be the obliteration of our tax base, job market and public services, with a reach far beyond those directly working for multinationals.
Pivot Eoin wrote: This thread is purely speculation, and obviously driven a lot by people in here, just about ready to get into the housing market.
OttoPilot wrote: » Not all pharma and healthcare is doing well at the moment. Only those companies related to treating Coronavirus. The rest of healthcare seems to have seized up based on Holohans comments this week.
snotboogie wrote: » The US Govt's best case scenario is for a domestic big Pharma company to come up with a vaccine or an effective treatment over the next 12 to 18 months. What I am saying is that the idea that these companies (and all but one or two have a large base in Ireland) will be uniquely exposed to coerced tax repatriation policies by the US govt in the near term is ridiculous.
Reversal wrote: » Apologies a little unclear. 35k units being built a year is the target to meet the demand of the private market and to house those you deem unworthy of housing. If you think they don't deserve it, then we should only be building 20K units a year or less to meet private demand. 35K a year is the nominal target stated by government. It's is often misrepresented on here as the demand in the private market. It is far from that.
na1 wrote: » I think with many people stop paying income tax & PRSI and starting getting 350 from the revenue, it won't be long before ECB will switch on the money printing machine... This will starts the inflation in Eurozone
Assetbacked wrote: » I post with some glee as the super massive big tech companies (FAAGM) are eroding democracy (they are too big and powerful), contributing to the unsustainability of capitalism (by preventing competition and encouraging inequality) and representing the destructive aspects of globalisation. Paying little to no tax on their earnings as a result of immoral accounting practices is all part of the race to the bottom. In Ireland, some have adopted the US attitude of growth at all costs is necessarily a good thing and part of that is enabling the big US multinationals harvest our resources in return for illegitimate corporate taxation. The cost? A swell in demand for infrastructure, transport, healthcare and housing, pushing everything beyond breaking point and contributing to a thoroughly unhappy society as demonstrated by the recent election results. A data protection regulator entrusted to protect the rights of EU citizens is in effect a paper tiger as the instruction is to not look a gift horse in the mouth fit the few shilling that comes in to the exchequer. For the good of healthy capitalism and society generally, seeing the big US tech multinationals taken down a few pegs is not a bad thing.
fliball123 wrote: » If the multinationals in this country leave the country is phucked, we may as well all jump on a plane to Zimbabwe and turn the lights off
Assetbacked wrote: » This is ridiculous and is part of the cap in hand, small time thinking of a lot of Irish people take who don't have enough confidence about themselves and their country. It should not be all or nothing, it is about aiming for a fairer society. The government won't do it so it takes a US led economic struggle to release the pressure valve in the Irish economy. We are an open, English speaking, educated economy (as everyone can see from the IDA promos), with a good standard of living, stable political situation and good to raise families in, we are not the failed economy like we were after 2008 begging the world to save us from ourselves. This mindset needs to change.
fliball123 wrote: » So you think that phucking the Multinationals over would be a good thing.??? How much did they pay last year in corpo tax How much income tax did their workers pay How many other businesses relay on these companies and how much tax to they pay. With the exception of the public sector, multinationals employ more people than any other sector. If they leave the country we are phucked thats a fact there would be too much money gone yearly to make up and when you have a public sector and welfare system that are both hemorrhaging money who do you think will pay for this add in the increase in dole for the ex-multinational employees. ??
cnocbui wrote: » No it won't. The only thing that can start inflation is a meaningful rise in people's purchasing power through widespread wage and sallary increases or a significant reduction in taxes. The last won't happen because the government has to fund the second highest average public sector salaries in the EU. People in Ireland are generally impoverished through taxation to support a very expensive and inefficient public sector. I believe this is largely why there is such a housing affordability problem in this country - the level of taxation is just too high. Cue an outburst of outrage that I'm wrong because if you look at GDP. GDP is gods gift to the Irish government for it to hide how bad things are here. We spend near the highest on healthcare by GDP.... Ireland's tax burden is low as a percentage of GDP... Ireland's Public Service cost as a percentage of GDP is low...
fliball123 wrote: » IDenting demand/Increasing supply OAPs dying of corona - Increasing Supply OAPs dying of Corona - Kids will be getting a big inheritance and most likely a house . .
Steer55 wrote: » Not many OAP's have died (less than 100 deaths in country so far) and this virus is expected to.peak in next few weeks. We not going to see nothing like the level of deaths among OAP's dying in this country unlike what's happening in Italy or Spain. Thankfully
Assetbacked wrote: » I post with some glee as the super massive big tech companies (FAAGM) are eroding democracy (they are too big and powerful), contributing to the unsustainability of capitalism (by preventing competition and encouraging inequality) and representing the destructive aspects of globalisation. Paying little to no tax on their earnings as a result of immoral accounting practices is all part of the race to the bottom. In Ireland, some have adopted the US attitude of growth at all costs is necessarily a good thing and part of that is enabling the big US multinationals harvest our resources in return for illegitimate corporate taxation. The cost? A swell in demand for infrastructure, transport, healthcare and housing, pushing everything beyond breaking point and contributing to a thoroughly unhappy society as demonstrated by the recent election results. A data protection regulator entrusted to protect the rights of EU citizens is in effect a paper tiger as the instruction is to not look a gift horse in the mouth for the few shilling that comes in to the exchequer. For the good of healthy capitalism and society generally, seeing the big US tech multinationals taken down a few pegs is not a bad thing.
