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Property Market 2020

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    #3302
    Summer2020
    Registered Users Posts: 609 ✭✭✭Summer2020


    davedub2015 wrote: »
    Im the same have viewed many houses and no calls from any estate agent.

    Confirms my suspicions even further about that posters claims. People aren’t desperate to sell. I’m selling, currently sale agreed as of 2 weeks ago. If the buyer rings EA looking to Renegotiate price with me they’ll be told no. We’re under absolutely no pressure to sell, and will happily sit this out for as long as it takes (years if necessary). People expecting sellers to be begging people for offers are delusional in the extreme.


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    #3303
    Nika Bolokov
    Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Nika Bolokov


    Friend a mine had all bidders pull out of the sale of his house two weeks ago.

    Not a fancy house at all but yesterday one rang up , went over asking but a little less than what bidding had been at and boom sale agreed.

    I suppose for some , leases will still expire and families will continue to get bigger.

    Had the offer been a low ball he would have just pulled the property from sale.


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    #3304
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Another factor which will have a huge bearing on our housing market is the impact of Covid 19 on the large US investors who control the market ; they are going to make losses both here and in the US if the housing market falls rapidly and financing will become an issue for them as Covid wreaks havoc in the US , how they react will have a big impact here .


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    #3305
    Nika Bolokov
    Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Nika Bolokov


    pearcider wrote: »
    Spanish flu killed relatively more and we had a much younger and fitter global population then. No obesity no diabetes and few OAPs. The only thing keeping the current death rate “low” at 3.4% is the modern intensive care we can provide but that will collapse in most countries in the next month or so because the cases are doubling every 5-8 days. In Italy it has collapsed hence the death rate of 11%. It’s just mathematics.

    But....European children were chronically malnourished , there was no welfare system , most breadwinners were killed in WW1 , Spanish flu killed the poor mainly regardless of demographic. We're all further on.

    Italy's death rate is driven by it's lack of identified cases due to limited testing. It's a major outlier and is falling.

    It's just mathematics...


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    #3306
    Nika Bolokov
    Registered Users Posts: 651 ✭✭✭Nika Bolokov


    coolshannagh28 wrote: »
    Another factor which will have a huge bearing on our housing market is the impact of Covid 19 on the large US investors who control the market ; they are going to make losses both here and in the US if the housing market falls rapidly and financing will become an issue for them as Covid wreaks havoc in the US , how they react will have a big impact here .


    If anything financing will become cheaper as the Fed opens the taps and buys all sorts of debt.


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    #3307
    SteelyDanJalapeno
    Registered Users Posts: 14,250 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.


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    #3308
    Kivaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,105 ✭✭✭Kivaro


    SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »
    Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
    An old cliche, but very true.
    This will (should) be the new norm for everything in Ireland going forward.


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    #3309
    nerrad01
    Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭nerrad01


    Nika Bolokov wrote: »
    But....European children were chronically malnourished , there was no welfare system , most breadwinners were killed in WW1 , Spanish flu killed the poor mainly regardless of demographic. We're all further on.

    Italy's death rate is driven by it's lack of identified cases due to limited testing. It's a major outlier and is falling.

    It's just mathematics...

    Lets see how this plays out in the UK, US and spain. Italy will definitely not be a major outlier, they were very unfortuanate in that they were one of the first to be hit and didnt get the controls in place in time.

    They were also hindered by the lack of information out of china and the frankly ludicrous numbers that the chinese are reporting.

    The US is shaping up to be just as bad!


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    #3310
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Nika Bolokov wrote: »
    If anything financing will become cheaper as the Fed opens the taps and buys all sorts of debt.

    Then we can look forward to them bottom feeding again and strengthening their monopoly on our market .


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    #3311
    CalRobert
    Registered Users Posts: 133 ✭✭CalRobert


    Summer2020 wrote: »
    People expecting sellers to be begging people for offers are delusional in the extreme.




    When the seller loses their job and can't pay the mortgage, they will be more inclined to seek offers, or the bank will simply take it and sell it to whoever offers the most.



    Most sellers won't be in this boat, but enough will that it will affect prices.


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    #3312
    Summer2020
    Registered Users Posts: 609 ✭✭✭Summer2020


    CalRobert wrote: »
    When the seller loses their job and can't pay the mortgage, they will be more inclined to seek offers, or the bank will simply take it and sell it to whoever offers the most.



    Most sellers won't be in this boat, but enough will that it will affect prices.

    This is Ireland. People won’t lose their homes. It didn’t happen during the 2008 recession. It’s extremely hard for a bank to repossess a family home in Ireland. The debt will be added onto the mortgage.


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    #3313
    CalRobert
    Registered Users Posts: 133 ✭✭CalRobert


    Summer2020 wrote: »
    This is Ireland. People won’t lose their homes. It didn’t happen during the 2008 recession. It’s extremely hard for a bank to repossess a family home in Ireland. The debt will be added onto the mortgage.




    True, which makes me feel like a chump for buying a cheap hovel I could afford. But then, why doesn't everyone just not pay their mortgage since it would basically mean a free house?


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    #3314
    JohnnyChimpo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,076 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo


    SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »
    Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

    this is a truism though, it can be equally applied to both wildly overinflated and depressed markets


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    #3315
    SteelyDanJalapeno
    Registered Users Posts: 14,250 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    JohnnyChimpo wrote: »
    this is a truism though, it can be equally applied to both wildly overinflated and depressed markets

    It is of course, but it's amazing how many people ignore it


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    #3316
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    The O.E.C.D are saying a much more positive news in regards to our economy
    Out of all oecd members
    Ireland's economy to be least damaged by coronavirous containment measures.
    Maybe the housing market might not be affected as much.
    Full report can be viewed on their webpage


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    #3317
    nerrad01
    Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭nerrad01


    We have done amazingly well with our measures and buy in by the public. Also our numerous advantages over some of the other cities in europe, island, low population density, no real high rise living, one of the least dense capital cities in europe, relatively young population.

    So i think we will do as well as possible, however the UK and US is going to be severely hit by this and unfortunately we are highly highly exposed to this. So job losses and economic impact is inevitable.


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    #3318
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,953 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »
    Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

    Say I'm a builder, and it costs me €300,000 to build a house, but you only willing to pay €200,000 for it. You reckon that's it's 'worth'; not €300,000?

    If that's what you think, would you build any houses, if you were me?


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    #3319
    BillyBiggs
    Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭BillyBiggs


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Sorry but Christmas? Are you joking...you can't even honestly believe it will be even a quarter of that time...

    As people have mentioned, flights are still occurring. People are still flying in and out of most European countries, albeit at a much lower level than before. Besides that, when will it be safe to open cafes, bars and restaurants? When will it be safe open schools again? Most school expect to be closed till September. We could easily have our numbers of infections explode if we allow the general public to mingle in a month even. Don’t forget you have vectors for the disease that are asymptomatic, people who spread the disease and have no symptoms themselves.


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    #3320
    Round Cable
    Registered Users Posts: 824 ✭✭✭Round Cable


    ZX7R wrote: »
    The O.E.C.D are saying a much more positive news in regards to our economy
    Out of all oecd members
    Ireland's economy to be least damaged by coronavirous containment measures.
    Maybe the housing market might not be affected as much.
    Full report can be viewed on their webpage

    And from the Irish Times review of the OECD report:
    Irish Times wrote:
    GDP is, however, considered a poor barometer of Irish economic activity because of the presence of so many big multinationals, which skew the headline numbers.

    This suggests the OECD’s forecast may significantly underestimate the economic fallout here.


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    #3321
    nerrad01
    Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭nerrad01


    BillyBiggs wrote: »
    As people have mentioned, flights are still occurring. People are still flying in and out of most European countries, albeit at a much lower level than before. Besides that, when will it be safe to open cafes, bars and restaurants? When will it be safe open schools again? Most school expect to be closed till September. We could easily have our numbers of infections explode if we allow the general public to mingle in a month even. Don’t forget you have vectors for the disease that are asymptomatic, people who spread the disease and have no symptoms themselves.

    Covid is here forever until either we have a vaccine or we develop herd immunity, this is going to last a long time in terms of varying levels of restrictions. Anyone who thinks everything will be back to normal very soon is wrong, the big fear will be another wave of infections when winter rolls around.


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    #3322
    BillyBiggs
    Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭BillyBiggs


    nerrad01 wrote: »
    Covid is here forever until either we have a vaccine or we develop herd immunity, this is going to last a long time in terms of varying levels of restrictions. Anyone who thinks everything will be back to normal very soon is wrong, the big fear will be another wave of infections when winter rolls around.

    Thanks. Yeah people are delusional if they think they’ll be sitting in a bar with their friends in two months time.


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    #3323
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Round Cable wrote: »
    And from the Irish Times review of the OECD report:

    Swings and roundabouts
    You're going to have everyone second guessing everyone.


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    #3324
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,948 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    BillyBiggs wrote: »
    As people have mentioned, flights are still occurring. People are still flying in and out of most European countries, albeit at a much lower level than before. Besides that, when will it be safe to open cafes, bars and restaurants? When will it be safe open schools again? Most school expect to be closed till September. We could easily have our numbers of infections explode if we allow the general public to mingle in a month even. Don’t forget you have vectors for the disease that are asymptomatic, people who spread the disease and have no symptoms themselves.

    Schools will be back before September, you can quote me there.


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    #3325
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,953 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    voluntary wrote: »
    No, it's not a 'zero-sum game'

    First,

    20% of 300k is 60k, but 20% of 600k is 120k.

    Upgradeing from a former 300k house to a former 600k house after 20% drop saves you (600-300) - (480-240) = 300-240 = 60k

    So even assuming low-end and high-end properties drop equally by 20% you already save 60 thousand Euros upgrading in the downturn as opposed to upgrading before the pandemic.

    But this is all based on a very WRONG assumption that the market moves evenly. The average CSO increase of drop cannot be simply applied to the wide market. Expensive properties in the vast majority drop by a higher percent in general than the cheaper ones. The very low end of the market may not even move that much so you may be talking about getting small hit on your sale price and saving a lot of money on your next property.

    How many high value properties do you see do that though? I would guess that most of them are mortgage free and you won't see their owners even put them on the market in a downturn. As I have said before, I won't even put mine on the market if it's down to below replacement cost levels. Your person looking to trade up is not going to have much to choose from.

    What you are probably seeing is aspirational asking price coming down, where the seller was looking for a fat profit in the first place. The 20% drop you see might just be someone getting more realistic.


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    #3326
    wirelessdude01
    Registered Users Posts: 8,422 ✭✭✭wirelessdude01


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Schools will be back before September, you can quote me there.

    What do you base that on?


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    #3327
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,953 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Schools will be back before September, you can quote me there.

    Probably, but they will be repeating the current year, starting in Sep.


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    #3328
    wirelessdude01
    Registered Users Posts: 8,422 ✭✭✭wirelessdude01


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Probably, but they will be repeating the current year, starting in Sep.

    Won't be happening


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    #3329
    maestroamado
    Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Say I'm a builder, and it costs me €300,000 to build a house, but you only willing to pay €200,000 for it. You reckon that's it's 'worth'; not €300,000?

    If that's what you think, would you build any houses, if you were me?




    I am curious about this, does the €300,000 include the site cost?

    Also is housing estate or one-off stand alone. I do know that the cost and hassle of getting planning in the countryside is difficult.
    I was talking to a guy the other day who said he spent 30,000 trying to get planning and eventually gave up.

    I had a house built 15 years ago, i do not think i get much more out of it now than what i put i then.
    I was thinking of moving this summer but that may be on hold now.
    I know a few local guys who are in the building trade and most of them bought houses instead of self build.


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    #3330
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,953 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    nerrad01 wrote: »
    Covid is here forever until either we have a vaccine or we develop herd immunity, this is going to last a long time in terms of varying levels of restrictions. Anyone who thinks everything will be back to normal very soon is wrong, the big fear will be another wave of infections when winter rolls around.

    No it won't. If you stop transmission for longer than the time it takes for an infected person to get over it and become non-infections, then you wipe out the disease, as was done with the original SARS and Smallpox.

    The real issue will be travel. People who have immunity can travel outside the country, but those who haven't can't, without a fast antibody test on return. Air travel will have to be restricted when we come out of lock-down. Those without some proof of antibody positivity will need an antibody test before being allowed in. More likely the EU will probably require the proof before boarding.


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    #3331
    SteelyDanJalapeno
    Registered Users Posts: 14,250 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Say I'm a builder, and it costs me €300,000 to build a house, but you only willing to pay €200,000 for it. You reckon that's it's 'worth'; not €300,000?

    If that's what you think, would you build any houses, if you were me?

    I would not, and by doing that, the worth would eventually rise to 300k or whatever the demand for supply.

    If you are building a house for 300k, and a consumer is only willing to pay 200k, then we've got too many houses.


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