Cheltenham 2020

TallyRand

Motivator wrote: »

All about the value. For example, I don’t see any value in the Supreme or the Champion Hurdle so I won’t have a bet. I do see value in Envoi Allen’s price so I’ll back him on the day. If I don’t see any value in a race I won’t have a bet.

The likes of Cheltenham are dangerous weeks for people because logic and discipline can go out the window as people get caught up in the hype of it and end up backing horses for the sake of it. I fell victim to it a few years ago and had a bet in every race, backed probably two winners over the week and I remember looking back on what I had been at a few weeks later and I couldn’t believe it. Some of the mad bets I had, things I’d never done before or did afterwards.

The only problem with value is that it is subjective, depends on the approach one takes in deciding value, hit and miss unless you’re god.

Motivator

TallyRand wrote: »

The only problem with value is that it is subjective, depends on the approach one takes in deciding value, hit and miss unless you’re god.

Oh I agree totally. What I perceive to be value is going to be different from the next man, every one has different angles. I don’t see any value in backing two or three horses in a race but others want to follow that strategy because they feel it gives them something. Betting like that would give me a headache and i see no value in it. But as you say, it’s all subjective. There’s no right or wrong answers, just difference of opinions.

Peintre Celebre

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Any big fancy for the week PC?

No I've followed none of this season's jumps I wouldn't know half of the horses tbh. I'd be more excited about Dundalk on Friday

I like Staker Wallace in the Foxhunters though and had a small e/w on chesterfield in the country at 66s. I've more staked at wolverhampton tomorrow than Cheltenham

mountgomery burns

Motivator wrote: »

Neither has Danny. Danny has been beaten a short head on 5 occasions that spring to mind. He’s been desperately unlucky at the track. Gave some masterful rides there that are forgotten about because he didn’t win. If he has a ride in the bumper pay attention to it, he’s gone very close a few times over the last few years.

Did Danny Mullins not win on Martello Tower?

howareyakid

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Did Danny Mullins not win on Martello Tower?

No, he finished second on Milsean. His mother trained Martello Tower so it was bittersweet for him as he said in an interview with Patrick in the Independent yesterday!

Morleystreet

Slattsy wrote: »

All depends on Faugheen. If Faugheen doesn't travel Allaho ends up in the JLT imho. I have some slight stamina doubts myself and Willie keeps saying they're concerned he pulls too hard... Could be similar to Black Hercules.

RSA it is for Allaho. Just needs to win now!

famagusta

Pissing rain here in Cheltenham lads

begbysback

famagusta wrote: »

Pissing rain here in Cheltenham lads

The ground heavy for day 1?

Plasandrunt

https://www.racingpost.com/news/cheltenham-countdown/soft-ground-predicted-for-day-one-but-conditions-to-dry-out-as-week-progresses/426848

zpehtsfd

Not my most fav of jockeys but Barry Geraghty has a host of decent rides the first couple of days. Can see him a lot shorter then 13/2 (BF exchange) gong into the last couple of days. In a few for a possible trade. GL

The Mig

Giddy fcuking up lads we’re nearly there!

naughto

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Not my most fav of jockeys but Barry Geraghty has a host of decent rides the first couple of days. Can see him a lot shorter then 13/2 (BF exchange) gong into the last couple of days. In a few for a possible trade. GL

He will no doubt fu1ck it up

RivetingRoger

Anyone over there?
Johnny Ward tweeting Cheltenham is like a ghost town, no one around
Anyone confirm?

Andrew00

Seen a few Snapchats, the pubs are fairly quiet over there

famagusta

RivetingRoger wrote:

Anyone over there? Johnny Ward tweeting Cheltenham is like a ghost town, no one around Anyone confirm?

Good crowd around, definitely a bit quieter than last few years, dying here, they ruled most of the world but never figured out how to pull a pint ffs

eagle eye

My bets today.
1.30 Captain Guinness, feel he has a great chance a definite place in my book.
2.10 Brewin'upastorm(nb) He comes in here underrated in my book. Expect a big performance from him.
2.50 Activial. Has had a few good runs in the past at the festival including in this race. Had an op and looked good since.
3.30 Darver Star(nap) There are question marks over every horse in this race including the fav which was coughing ten days. This horse travels well and will be making giant strides up the hill and I think this race is set up for him.
4.10 Honeysuckle. Unbeaten taking on a machine. Free bet to the value of my stake if Bennie wins, if Bennie doesn't win then Honeysuckle does.
4.50 Hold the note. Connections won this two years ago and this fella has followed a similar path.
5.30 Lord Du Mesnil. When Elliott books JJ Codd take note.

zpehtsfd

zpehtsfd wrote: »

At the Acorn to spoil the Glenloe plot. Looks like a horse that is crying out for a trip. Unlucky at Leopardstown when travelling really well. In the hands of the English handicapper as he could easily handicap him out of the race if he wants to. Needs 134 or higher to get in probably. I see a big Tony Martin gamble on this if he runs. Owners would bring the house down on St Patricks Day Thursday.

12/1 NRNB for me. GL

Missed the cut by one i believe. :mad:

Sultan of Bling

eagle eye wrote:

My bets today. 1.30 Captain Guinness, feel he has a great chance a definite place in my book. 2.10 Brewin'upastorm(nb) He comes in here underrated in my book. Expect a big performance from him. 2.50 Activial. Has had a few good runs in the past at the festival including in this race. Had an op and looked good since. 3.30 Darver Star(nap) There are question marks over every horse in this race including the fav which was coughing ten days. This horse travels well and will be making giant strides up the hill and I think this race is set up for him. 4.10 Honeysuckle. Unbeaten taking on a machine. Free bet to the value of my stake if Bennie wins, if Bennie doesn't win then Honeysuckle does. 4.50 Hold the note. Connections won this two years ago and this fella has followed a similar path. 5.30 Lord Du Mesnil. When Elliott books JJ Codd take note.

Unlucky with capt Guinness. It's the not knowing that kills you.

munster87

naughto wrote: »

He will no doubt fu1ck it up

Some man

NaiveMelodies

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

I think Min will be backed off the boards and finally get his Cheltenham win.
APTs got more questions than answers for me at the moment.

Hon

patmac

I love Cheltenham, I was delighted on Tuesday when they decided to let it go ahead. But as information started to come through regarding the corona virus and how quickly it spread in Italy, I think ITV, The Jockey Club and all associated with the festival have scored a massive own goal here. Even if they cancelled today they might have saved some face.

Sultan of Bling

patmac wrote:

I love Cheltenham, I was delighted on Tuesday when they decided to let it go ahead. But as information started to come through regarding the corona virus and how quickly it spread in Italy, I think ITV, The Jockey Club and all associated with the festival have scored a massive own goal here. Even if they cancelled today they might have saved some face.

I agree and it has nothing to do with the fact that I had 3 seconds today!!!

IAMAMORON

The highlight of the week for me has been all the passive aggressive trolling going on, loved some of it. The condescension has been phenomenal.

I also really enjoyed some of the straight outrage. It is brilliant that people have been given the opportunity to have a tangible thing which they can blame for the entire outbreak, especially as it happened in another country involving a sport they probably despise. Nice.

shanboghted

Like above absolutely love Cheltenham and was delighted it went ahead but once that announcement came out yesterday morning I felt a bit uneasy in myself watching it! In hindsight probably should not of went ahead or went behind closed doors

famagusta

Some week for Elliott and Mullins, the bha handicapper will need to raise ours a stone or more next year, the english lads on racing tv weren't too complimentary or pleased about the whole thing

PillarToPost

The supreme, Albert Bartlett and gold cup were as good as it gets absolutely incredible, plus envoi Allen and goshen look like the next batch of superstars

Fanny Wank

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The highlight of the week for me has been all the passive aggressive trolling going on, loved some of it. The condescension has been phenomenal.

I also really enjoyed some of the straight outrage. It is brilliant that people have been given the opportunity to have a tangible thing which they can blame for the entire outbreak, especially as it happened in another country involving a sport they probably despise. Nice.

Nominative determinism

Though I'm probably a "hater"

Barely bother with boards anymore but have to post this - the festival going ahead was completely irresponsible.

fsfg

RivetingRoger wrote: »

100% This
Don't understand the negativity atall
Has been the best and most consistent performer over fences for well over a year now, beating every horse he comes up against.
Where he runs, he wins.

If Defi and Paisley both get to the festival, the double is the bet of the week

Mad that they both ran so poor. Paisley can come back but Defi needs to go up in trip

IAMAMORON

Fanny **** wrote: »

Nominative determinism

Though I'm probably a "hater"

Barely bother with boards anymore but have to post this - the festival going ahead was completely irresponsible.

Borderline aftertiming Fanny. You should go and post yourself.

Rabbit Redux

famagusta wrote: »

Some week for Elliott and Mullins, the bha handicapper will need to raise ours a stone or more next year, the english lads on racing tv weren't too complimentary or pleased about the whole thing

Willie's placing of Saint Roi was inspired. Always difficult for the handicapper to get an accurate hold of novice hurdler with just a victory in a maiden hurdle at a gaff track last time out.

I'd expect to see an overhaul of the qualifying criteria for the Pertemps, sooner rather than later. The first three home in the final scraped minor placings in their respective qualifying races. There's no incentive to win those qualifiers, and it can't be a good thing for racing where it's better to finish in a minor placing than to win the actual race.