General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Tories 45% in this poll, 37% in another. Who to believe? All these firms have their own methods of weighting, only time will tell who's doing the best job of it.

Really will depend on how many actually go out and vote, for many apathy will be the decider if they think "their" candidate looks certain to win, they may simply stay at home.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Something about that poll quoted above looks off, though. It leaves only 8% for snp, dup, greens & various other small parties and independents. SNP got over 5% last time and will add another point or two. Greens will do 2 or even 3%. The numbers dont add up.

You just need to remember the population differences between England Wales Scotland & NI. SNP could get 100% of the Scottish vote but only about 8% of the GB vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom#Population

Letwin_Larry

the latest YouGov poll does'nt make good reading for Corbyn.
the gap is now 17 points!


https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/16/political-trackers-14-15-nov-update

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Really will depend on how many actually go out and vote, for many apathy will be the decider if they think "their" candidate looks certain to win, they may simply stay at home.


You just need to remember the population differences between England Wales Scotland & NI. SNP could get 100% of the Scottish vote but only about 8% of the GB vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom#Population

Yeah but that you gov poll has the main 4 parties taking 92% of vote which is leaving a mere 8% for every other party. Unless somebody can point out what I'm missing, that doesnt look right. Greens will get 3%, snp 5% - there's your 100% and we haven't even got to northern ire yet!

Tell me how

The Labour party and Lib Dems should be devoting a strategist and a few media personnel to dedicate their time between now and the election to capitalise on Trumps visit which will definitely be used to try to ensure Tories win and Brexit happens.

They should be holding media advertisement money in reserve to use between the 2nd of December and the 10th (media curfew) to ensure that all of Trumps shady deals, the relationship between him and Farage and as a consequence Johnson are laid out in clear transparent messages, headlines, tweets and pictorials. He's business failings, his lack of transparency, his legal difficulties, his connections with Russia, and all the while tying this to Johnson.

Every Trump/Johnson/Farage press conference talking about the special relationship should be followed by a media blitz undermining Johnson because of the fear that he will be rolled over by the bigger/darker forces at play.

This would be learning from the Vote Leave strategy for the Brexit referendum except, all information would be true, the information would be published to everyone and it would be driven by a party media office instead of some form of bot farm.

Ellian

Can anyone advise which polling company called a hung parliament last time? As I recall (possibly incorrectly) they were the only polling company to do so. What's their take on the state of play this time around?

A Dub in Glasgo

It was Yougov the day before

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#UK-wide_seat_projections

The exit poll from the TV media was quite accurate

Ellian

I'm pretty sure there was another polling company that was calling it long before the election. After the election BBC had a spokesperson on explaining how their sampling differed from everyone else.

Joe_ Public

I think its definitely you gov being referred to. They produced a lot of polls that were just as off as others, but one of the statistical models they used - mrp - got close. They say it worked in the us election as well, but in terms of consistent results over a period of time, mrp still obviously has to prove itself.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/14/how-we-correctly-called-hung-parliament

Ellian

You Gov might have been the most accurate but I might be thinking of Survation - apologies - don't want to derail the thread. They seem to be calling a gap as narrower than most other people this time around.

Harry Palmr

Is Jennifer Arcuri the unexploded bomb of this election? She is interviewed on ITVs Exposure programme which is on tonight at 11 PM.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/17/arcuri-says-johnson-cast-her-aside-like-one-night-stand

The US businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri has accused Boris Johnson of brutally casting her aside “like some one-night stand” and leaving her “heartbroken” since he became prime minister and the controversy over their four-year relationship became public.

In an outspoken interview with ITV’s Exposure, to be broadcast on Sunday, the tech entrepreneur also tells the journalist John Ware that Boris Johnson has refused to take her phone calls at Downing Street and has cut her off before she could initiate a conversation.

Addressing her words directly to the prime minister, who actively championed her business interests during his time at City Hall while failing to declare their friendship, Arcuri says: “I’ve been nothing but loyal, faithful, supportive, and a true confidante of yours.

“I’ve kept your secrets, and I’ve been your friend. And I don’t understand why you’ve blocked me and ignored me as if I was some fleeting one-night stand or some girl that you picked up at a bar because I wasn’t - and you know that. And I’m terribly heartbroken by the way that you have cast me aside like I am some gremlin ... He should know me well enough to know who I am ... Shame on him for not answering the phone.”

Beware a scorned ex.

Danzy

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

the latest YouGov poll does'nt make good reading for Corbyn.
the gap is now 17 points!


https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/16/political-trackers-14-15-nov-update

What is worse is where and whose vote they have lost.


Northern working class support.

They've been scorned since Blair's time, Its a problem long before Corbyn came.

Letwin_Larry

Danzy wrote: »

What is worse is where and whose vote they have lost.


Northern working class support.

They've been scorned since Blair's time, Its a problem long before Corbyn came.

a lot of anecdotal "evidence" suggests the Northern working classes have deserted Lab in big numbers. if this is the case then they are goosed. guy on LBC (sounded quite intelligent, not a ranter) the other night saying Lab has become too metropolitan controlled, and grass-root Lab activists have been cast aside/ignored. he thinks Lab are going to get hammered in the GE.

Leroy42

But wasn't that the one type of voter Corbyn was going to bring back?

Danzy

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

a lot of anecdotal "evidence" suggests the Northern working classes have deserted Lab in big numbers. if this is the case then they are goosed. guy on LBC (sounded quite intelligent, not a ranter) the other night saying Lab has become too metropolitan controlled, and grass-root Lab activists have been cast aside/ignored. he thinks Lab are going to get hammered in the GE.

Lot of anecdotal but polling data as well, polling can get it wrong but we're talking about 20% drops in some northern regions of England.

Letwin_Larry

Danzy wrote: »

Lot of anecdotal but polling data as well, polling can get it wrong but we're talking about 20% drops in some northern regions of England.

well if the polls are that much off the mark, then the results would be more similar to 2015 than 2017.

time will tell i suppose.

Joe_ Public

Of course, it is probably the most interesting aspect of this election, what is happening in those midlands and northern traditional labour heartlands. The working class vote is estimated at some 8-9m in total so it has a huge bearing on the result and why tories are placing so many of its eggs in that basket.

Seems sad to me that many of those voters would desert labour now when it seems to be the only party truly addressing the underlying problems they face, but that seems to be where we are. Too easy to buy lies about immigrants and other issues unfortunately.

But i wouldnt be calling it just yet. Brexit party not standing down will make it hard for tories to make significant gains. Still think labour will hold most of those seats but only after a few titanic struggles.

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Of course, it is probably the most interesting aspect of this election, what is happening in those midlands and northern traditional labour heartlands. The working class vote is estimated at some 8-9m in total so it has a huge bearing on the result and why tories are placing so many of its eggs in that basket.

Seems sad to me that many of those voters would desert labour now when it seems to be the only party truly addressing the underlying problems they face, but that seems to be where we are. Too easy to buy lies about immigrants and other issues unfortunately.

But i wouldnt be calling it just yet. Brexit party not standing down will make it hard for tories to make significant gains. Still think labour will hold most of those seats but only after a few titanic struggles.

They are not going to vote Tory out of liking them just see them as less of a threat than Labour.

Labour tell them what is good for them, tell them they are wrong to think this or that, must look at it in such a way.

A very large number of Labour activists and supporters are blunter, calling them chavs, gammons, racists, white van men, thicks, fools with a false consciousness and on and on.

Now the election is called they'll talk about solidarity and working class politics and give us a vote.

In time Labour will lose the very most of the Working Class vote, they have put the effort in.

Letwin_Larry

i've been saying this for some time now, but according to Boris speaking to the CBI this morning, "there is a tidal wave of investment waiting to happen" once he is re-elected PM and he "Gets Brexit done!".
he likened the UK economy to a super-car firing on only 1 cylinder!

stirring stuff indeed, or just more Boris waffle?

Danzy

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i've been saying this for some time now, but according to Boris speaking to the CBI this morning, "there is a tidal wave of investment waiting to happen" once he is re-elected PM and he "Gets Brexit done!".
he likened the UK economy to a super-car firing on only 1 cylinder!

stirring stuff indeed, or just more Boris waffle?

There is a lot of deferred investment as people wait for clarity, also across Europe and further afield there is incredible amounts of money seeking investments with reasonable growth never mind good return.

Where are they going to get that in the low growth Eurozone, ourselves, the Dutch, few or her small countries.

The money is there, whether it's invested is another thing.

Joe_ Public

Its waffle.

"We export the music of Jason Donovan to north korea."

So what? Just more waffle. Thats all it is.

When will the results be known. Election on 12th Dec. Will the counting go on all day 13th?

Danzy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

When will the results be known. Election on 12th Dec. Will the counting go on all day 13th?

Results should start coming in from 1 am.

Joe_ Public

Johnson repeats the lie that its costing the uk an extra billion each month they remain in the eu. Shouldnt be allowed to get away with that during an election campaign.

Leroy42

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i've been saying this for some time now, but according to Boris speaking to the CBI this morning, "there is a tidal wave of investment waiting to happen" once he is re-elected PM and he "Gets Brexit done!".
he likened the UK economy to a super-car firing on only 1 cylinder!

stirring stuff indeed, or just more Boris waffle?

Or the right way to look at it is that Johnson and his party have been causing all this investment to be held back. Which results in lost income, lost jobs, lost opportunities.

But no, let's let Johnson simply tell us what great stuff awaits if and when he might get a majority and if and when he might get the UK back. Which cannot happen before December 2020 and he has said himself that he is willing to plunge the UK back into the same 1 cylinder if he doesn't get the FTA he wants.

Did you stop to ask why the investment had stopped? YEs, thats right, because of Brexit. A policy he pushed, a policy his party wanted, and a policy he said would be easy and only benefits.

A Dub in Glasgo

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

i've been saying this for some time now, but according to Boris speaking to the CBI this morning, "there is a tidal wave of investment waiting to happen" once he is re-elected PM and he "Gets Brexit done!".
he likened the UK economy to a super-car firing on only 1 cylinder!

stirring stuff indeed, or just more Boris waffle?

and the Tories removed the other cylinders!

Are people really naive enough to fall for his rubbish?

A Dub in Glasgo

Deleted User wrote: »

When will the results be known. Election on 12th Dec. Will the counting go on all day 13th?

The exit poll will be released just after the polls close and at the last election, it was quite accurate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#UK-wide_seat_projections

Bannasidhe

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

and the Tories removed the other cylinders!

Are people really naive enough to fall for his rubbish?

Sadly, it appears enough are.
And enough is all they need.

quokula

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Sadly, it appears enough are.
And enough is all they need.

As Survation mentioned earlier (and Survation were the only ones who's polls came anywhere near the result last time), although the polls don't look great for Labour right now, they are still actually polling a lot better than they were at this point in the last election campaign, where they ended up taking away the Conservative's majority.

The majority of voters are only just starting to switch on and pay attention. Policy announcements are coming thick and fast. Manifestos are still to be published, and there are still to be TV debates.

The election is a long way from over. As can be seen with the Tories continuing to fall in line and adopt Labour policies, most recently today scrapping their own intended tax cuts in order to announce NHS funding on the same level as Labour, Labour have basically won the economic argument already.

Labour are mostly losing out on both extremes of Brexit, particularly the leave side, by trying to hold the pragmatic centre ground. The theory is, as happened last time, that as manifestos get out and policies get detailed and debates happen, that the hardcore leavers who say they'll vote Tory to get it done might start thinking that the vague concepts of sovereignty that they've been sold aren't quite as important as being able to see a doctor when they need to, or being able to pay their bills. And the hardcore remainers should meanwhile realise that Labour are offering the only possible realistic route to their end goal and a protest vote for the Lib Dems will achieve nothing for 90% of constituencies.

ArmaniJeanss

quokula wrote: »

As Survation mentioned earlier (and Survation were the only ones who's polls came anywhere near the result last time), although the polls don't look great for Labour right now, they are still actually polling a lot better than they were at this point in the last election campaign, where they ended up taking away the Conservative's majority.

The majority of voters are only just starting to switch on and pay attention. Policy announcements are coming thick and fast. Manifestos are still to be published, and there are still to be TV debates.

The election is a long way from over. As can be seen with the Tories continuing to fall in line and adopt Labour policies, most recently today scrapping their own intended tax cuts in order to announce NHS funding on the same level as Labour, Labour have basically won the economic argument already.

Labour are mostly losing out on both extremes of Brexit, particularly the leave side, by trying to hold the pragmatic centre ground. The theory is, as happened last time, that as manifestos get out and policies get detailed and debates happen, that the hardcore leavers who say they'll vote Tory to get it done might start thinking that the vague concepts of sovereignty that they've been sold aren't quite as important as being able to see a doctor when they need to, or being able to pay their bills. And the hardcore remainers should meanwhile realise that Labour are offering the only possible realistic route to their end goal and a protest vote for the Lib Dems will achieve nothing for 90% of constituencies.

Are the Conservatives going to even bother with a manifesto?
I suspect they think a manifesto can only lose them votes from here, so sticking with Get Brexit Done and allowing ministers to promise anything (by definition not costed or subject to forensic analysis) in interviews may be something they see as a winning strategy.

devnull

quokula wrote: »

Labour are mostly losing out on both extremes of Brexit, particularly the leave side, by trying to hold the pragmatic centre ground.

I don't know any centist in the UK who is thinking of voting Labour, in fact I know more who are going to vote Tory, some for the first time in their life as they see Corbyn as a throwback to decades ago. Personally If I was registered to vote in the UK I could never vote Tory, but as someone who voted Labour in the past, I could never vote for them either at the moment because just as I can't support fully fledged right wing politics, I can't support all out left wing either.

As I've stated further up the thread, you have two extremes, one says that private companies are essentially evil and must be banned, taxed to high heaven with the anti business policies and resultant loss of jobs with every service must be nationalised and are economically illterate and living in the past and another one who wants to decimate workers rights, tax the largest companies virtually nothing and make life better for the wealthy few and carry on with a crippling decentralisation agenda which has crippled the education system with the failed academy system and destroyed public services.

There is room for something in the middle, not to either extreme and that is why I would vote Lib Dems. I would not vote for the Lib Dems with any great passion, but they are the only party that is anywhere near the centre in England and for moderates and centerists like me, who would have tradionally always voted Labour, they really are the only choice. A Centre left Labour would get my vote, but simply put, this Labour party is not a centre left.