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General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

  • 12-11-2019 9:34am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭


    from what i'm reading/hearing the crucial battleground in this election appears to be those marginal seats, and how in particular will Lab Leavers vote now that Nigel has "put his country before party" and allowed the Tories a clear run at them.
    • will those Lab leavers hold their noses & bring themselves to vote Tory?
    • will the decide to return to or stick with Lab?
    • will they stay at home in disgust/frustration, with a nice cuppa on a cold winter's day?
    • will the vote Lib Dem or possibly Green?
    • will they spoil their votes?

    If these Lab Leavers "swing/defect" in sufficient numbers, then it's game, set & match to Boris imo.

    Another imponderable imo is, will Nigel still do enough damage to the Tories in those constituencies in which they will continue to contest, or will Part 2 of their "agreement" kick in, and will Nigel stand down even more candidates to make way for the Tories?

    Hmmmm?


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    another of the imponderables i suppose are,
    • will Jo & Jeremy manage to get it on, in the same way Boris & Nigel have?
    • will this election be all about Brexit, or will other issues manage to push themselves to the fore?

    certainly is one of the most intriguing and unpredictable GEs and possibly one of the most important imo in my lifetime.

    all to play for, with 4 weeks to go!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Hilarious listening to tory mp on bbc, being tackled on cost of johnsons pledge to grant tax breaks to middle income earners. "I'm not going to sit here and get into costings....we will publish our manifesto in due course...not appropriate to get into."

    All this after she's tried to justify doing exactly that on labour spending. Tories wont even bring their manifesto out until just before election.

    This is through the looking glass stuff. The other tory on the panel says these are unfair questions. I'm not even making this up!

    Edit: she also criticised hilary clinton for sticking her beak into uk electoral politics. If i go check, i wonder will i find her similarly giving out about donald trump last week!?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,011 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Hilarious listening to tory mp on bbc, being tackled on cost of johnsons pledge to grant tax breaks to middle income earners. "I'm not going to sit here and get into costings....we will publish our manifesto in due course...not appropriate to get into."

    All this after she's tried to justify doing exactly that on labour spending. Tories wont even bring their manifesto out until just before election.

    This is through the looking glass stuff. The other tory on the panel says these are unfair questions. I'm not even making this up!

    Sounds like the same thing they were claiming in a Sky interview yesterday.

    "Blah, blah Labours spending plan is ridiculous, see we've worked it all out for you here, blah, blah."

    "So what about the costs for your plan then?"

    "We haven't worked ours out yet, but it's amazing, and you really don't need to know the details, just leave that to us....Look over there at Labours plan and it's obvious ours is better than that."


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    robinph wrote: »
    Sounds like the same thing they were claiming in a Sky interview yesterday.

    "Blah, blah Labours spending plan is ridiculous, see we've worked it all out for you here, blah, blah."

    "So what about the costs for your plan then?"

    "We haven't worked ours out yet, but it's amazing, and you really don't need to know the details, just leave that to us....Look over there at Labours plan and it's obvious ours is better than that."

    Pretty much it. "Would be dangerous to make assumptions," she said, as no manifesto out yet. Labour panellist offered her back of an envelope to tot up the sums because thats evidently what they did with their labour costing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    Hilarious listening to tory mp on bbc, being tackled on cost of johnsons pledge to grant tax breaks to middle income earners. "I'm not going to sit here and get into costings....we will publish our manifesto in due course...not appropriate to get into."

    All this after she's tried to justify doing exactly that on labour spending. Tories wont even bring their manifesto out until just before election.

    This is through the looking glass stuff. The other tory on the panel says these are unfair questions. I'm not even making this up!

    Edit: she also criticised hilary clinton for sticking her beak into uk electoral politics. If i go check, i wonder will i find her similarly giving out about donald trump last week!?

    voters are rightly concerned Lab will bankrupt the UK like they did in the 70s.

    people would be very foolish to forget the mess they made of it, and now that Corbyn & McDonnell are in charge, then the UK can expect more of that should they be elected.
    Brexit happening or not is very important obviously. but of equal import is just how economically illiterate Lab are.
    hopefully as this campaign progresses, Lab will be challenged and costed on their proposals, but what cannot be costed right now is the flight of talent, capital and fall in confidence that will follow a Lab victory.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,129 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    robinph wrote: »
    Sounds like the same thing they were claiming in a Sky interview yesterday.

    "Blah, blah Labours spending plan is ridiculous, see we've worked it all out for you here, blah, blah."

    "So what about the costs for your plan then?"

    "We haven't worked ours out yet, but it's amazing, and you really don't need to know the details, just leave that to us....Look over there at Labours plan and it's obvious ours is better than that."

    It's going to be best spending plan ever... just wait... you guys are going to be saying "that it's the best spending plan ever"... I've got top guys, real top guys, my best guys working on it as I speak. You guys just would not believe how good this spending plan is going to be. Top guys... guys... Top guys.. believe me. Those other guys are scared of what my guys are doing right now. And they should be. We've got top guys on our side.

    Can I ask you guys something? Have you seen Labour's party emblem? It's red. You guys know what else is red? ... Communism guys. Communism.

    Top guys. Guys. Top spending plan. Communists.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,989 ✭✭✭Shelga


    When are the parties bringing out their manifestos?? The election is in just over a month!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Shelga wrote: »
    When are the parties bringing out their manifestos?? The election is in just over a month!

    Labour say theirs will be publised next week.

    Tories talk about later, closer to election.

    Others not sure. Brexit party, dont really need a document to say clean break brexit over and over again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    Here is an interesting article posted in The Independent, not a paper know for its' pro-Tory stance,

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/winter-of-discontent-jeremy-corbyn-trade-unions-margaret-thatcher-a8741256.html
    It is now 40 years since the beginning of the winter of discontent, and a little over 20 years since the Conservatives finally squeezed the last few drops of propaganda value from it.

    In case you’re unfamiliar with those events, they basically ended the last Labour government before Blair’s and acted as a sort of funeral pyre for the old “post-war consensus” that set the preservation of full employment, the welfare state and a mixed (public/private) economy as the prime domestic policy objectives of every government of either party.

    What brought the government of James Callaghan so low – and a few months later helped Margaret Thatcher to begin what turned out to be 18 years of uninterrupted Tory rule – was a series of strikes across industries and public services in every corner of the nation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,651 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Shelga wrote: »
    When are the parties bringing out their manifestos?? The election is in just over a month!

    Not any more, it's not! Under a month as of today. ;)

    Anyway, don't be worrying about manifestos. Chances are (60%-ish) the candidate you voted for won't get elected. And besides, this election is all about Brexit (so I've read). :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,409 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    voters are rightly concerned Lab will bankrupt the UK like they did in the 70s.

    people would be very foolish to forget the mess they made of it, and now that Corbyn & McDonnell are in charge, then the UK can expect more of that should they be elected.
    Brexit happening or not is very important obviously. but of equal import is just how economically illiterate Lab are.
    hopefully as this campaign progresses, Lab will be challenged and costed on their proposals, but what cannot be costed right now is the flight of talent, capital and fall in confidence that will follow a Lab victory.

    And yet the Tories have just signed up to the economic plans put forward by Labour. The only difference is the exact amount but the principle is the same.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,011 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    voters are rightly concerned Lab will bankrupt the UK like they did in the 70s.

    people would be very foolish to forget the mess they made of it, and now that Corbyn & McDonnell are in charge, then the UK can expect more of that should they be elected.
    Brexit happening or not is very important obviously. but of equal import is just how economically illiterate Lab are.
    hopefully as this campaign progresses, Lab will be challenged and costed on their proposals, but what cannot be costed right now is the flight of talent, capital and fall in confidence that will follow a Lab victory.

    How many Labour MP's are there from the '70's still sitting in the HoC?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    robinph wrote: »
    How many Labour MP's are there from the '70's still sitting in the HoC?

    The beast!!! For one anyway. I wonder will he make it, big tory target seat. But i think he will hold on.

    Otherwise, the 70s!!! The seeds of the brexit vote were really sown a decade later and beyond when the north of england, among other areas, were ravaged and then forgotten. By both tory and Labour govs it should be said.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    voters are rightly concerned Lab will bankrupt the UK like they did in the 70s.

    people would be very foolish to forget the mess they made of it, and now that Corbyn & McDonnell are in charge, then the UK can expect more of that should they be elected.
    Brexit happening or not is very important obviously. but of equal import is just how economically illiterate Lab are.
    hopefully as this campaign progresses, Lab will be challenged and costed on their proposals, but what cannot be costed right now is the flight of talent, capital and fall in confidence that will follow a Lab victory.

    And the conservatives have NEVER bankrupted the country?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 19,219 Mod ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Here is an interesting article posted in The Independent, not a paper know for its' pro-Tory stance,

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/winter-of-discontent-jeremy-corbyn-trade-unions-margaret-thatcher-a8741256.html
    It is now 40 years since the beginning of the winter of discontent, and a little over 20 years since the Conservatives finally squeezed the last few drops of propaganda value from it.

    In case you’re unfamiliar with those events, they basically ended the last Labour government before Blair’s and acted as a sort of funeral pyre for the old “post-war consensus” that set the preservation of full employment, the welfare state and a mixed (public/private) economy as the prime domestic policy objectives of every government of either party.

    What brought the government of James Callaghan so low – and a few months later helped Margaret Thatcher to begin what turned out to be 18 years of uninterrupted Tory rule – was a series of strikes across industries and public services in every corner of the nation.

    That's not an 'article' - which implies it is written by a journalist and at least pretends to conform to come kind of unbiased standard.

    That is an opinion piece.

    Which means it one (anti-socialists) opinion and the best they can so is harp back to the 1970s.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    robinph wrote: »
    How many Labour MP's are there from the '70's still sitting in the HoC?

    very few thankfully, but that doesn't mean the current crop are not cut from the same cloth.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    That's not an 'article' - which implies it is written by a journalist and at least pretends to conform to come kind of unbiased standard.

    That is an opinion piece.

    Which means it one (anti-socialists) opinion and the best they can so is harp back to the 1970s.

    i think it's self-evident it is the opinion of the person who wrote the article.
    and yes it does refer to the 70s ie The Winter of Discontent, which is not a lifetime away and which imo Corbyn & McDonnell are more than capable of replicating.

    imo the Tories would be very negligent not to remind the electorate what is likely in store for them should they elect Corbyn as PM.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 19,219 Mod ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    i think it's self-evident it is the opinion of the person who wrote the article.
    and yes it does refer to the 70s ie The Winter of Discontent, which is not a lifetime away and which imo Corbyn & McDonnell are more than capable of replicating.

    imo the Tories would be very negligent not to remind the electorate what is likely in store for them should they elect Corbyn as PM.

    It is about as likely as being replicated as Elizabeth II being declared Empress of India. Just because a thing happened once it does not follow it will happen again. The conditions would need to be exactly the same.

    The only thing that opinion piece demonstrates is that anti-socialists have to go back to the 1970's to find material for their scaremongering.

    Why not go back further and discuss what socialism brought in? Like the NHS.

    Why not go back and discuss Thatcher's asset stripping of national industries and the destruction of entire communities? Let's talk about what closing the mines did to the North of England shall we?
    That could happen again... if there were any such industries left that the Tories hadn't flogged to the highest (usual not British) bidder.

    A opinion is just an opinion. And that is all the 'article' you linked is.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,546 ✭✭✭quokula


    Latest Survation poll has the gap down to 6% - it's an outlier for now but looks like the trend is moving in a similar direction to 2017.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,495 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    There is still so much time to go so the polls doesn't mean much right now. Trying to read too much in one poll when no manifesto has been released or little campaigning has happened is a mistake. But the polls are good to follow for trends over time. We have to remember the last campaign had 2 terror attacks happen while the campaign was happening so a lot can and will still happen.

    I am interested to see what the reaction from moderate Tory voters are to the Brexit Party pact. There is also candidates that will stand aside because of the pact from the Lib Dems and Labour that the Tories will have to contend with as well.

    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1194325853867593729?s=20


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,495 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Then you have speeches like this as well, we will need to see how voters in the Tories react tho this,

    https://twitter.com/OxfordUnion/status/1194304012734087175?s=20

    That is Aaron Banks stating that Farage has been able to force the Tories to morph into the Brexit Party.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    It is about as likely as being replicated as Elizabeth II being declared Empress of India. Just because a thing happened once it does not follow it will happen again. The conditions would need to be exactly the same.

    The only thing that opinion piece demonstrates is that anti-socialists have to go back to the 1970's to find material for their scaremongering.

    Why not go back further and discuss what socialism brought in? Like the NHS.

    Why not go back and discuss Thatcher's asset stripping of national industries and the destruction of entire communities? Let's talk about what closing the mines did to the North of England shall we?
    That could happen again... if there were any such industries left that the Tories hadn't flogged to the highest (usual not British) bidder.

    A opinion is just an opinion. And that is all the 'article' you linked is.

    Thatcher had to clear up the mess left behind by Lab. and yes history sadly does repeat itself, especially when a Lab Govt under Corbyn will persist with the same failed economic policies.
    Why do you think he is languishing so poorly in the opinion polls, what with Brexit and all the attendant confusion? Because the British public/voter does not trust them. And with good reason.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Letwin_Larry


    quokula wrote: »
    Latest Survation poll has the gap down to 6% - it's an outlier for now but looks like the trend is moving in a similar direction to 2017.

    sorry to burst your bubble but the latest YouGov poll shows a gap of 14 points!


    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/12/political-trackers-11-12-nov-update


  • Registered Users Posts: 301 ✭✭Ellian


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Then you have speeches like this as well, we will need to see how voters in the Tories react tho this,

    https://twitter.com/OxfordUnion/status/1194304012734087175?s=20

    That is Aaron Banks stating that Farage has been able to force the Tories to morph into the Brexit Party.

    I actually think Tory policy over the last decade managed to do that. Farage was just the match to the touch paper they had created.


  • Registered Users Posts: 301 ✭✭Ellian


    Thatcher had to clear up the mess left behind by Lab. and yes history sadly does repeat itself, especially when a Lab Govt under Corbyn will persist with the same failed economic policies.
    Why do you think he is languishing so poorly in the opinion polls, what with Brexit and all the attendant confusion? Because the British public/voter does not trust them. And with good reason.

    I fins this analysis somewhat flawed because we're not living in a post war Keynesian economic model anymore. Thatcher and the whole globalisation, Adam Smith Wealth of Nations thinking killed that. I don't doubt that Corbyn is a bit of a seventies throw back but I always find it genuinely curious that critics of any kind of socialist thinking are only willing to go back to the 1970s. Never back to the formation of the NHS. Or the Equal Pay Act. Rermoving the death penalty from the statue books. Decriminalisation of homosexuality. Foundation of the Open University to made third level education available to more of the population. On the other side when's the last time you've heard anyone mention interest rates around the time of Black Wednesday?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 19,219 Mod ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Thatcher had to clear up the mess left behind by Lab. and yes history sadly does repeat itself, especially when a Lab Govt under Corbyn will persist with the same failed economic policies.
    Why do you think he is languishing so poorly in the opinion polls, what with Brexit and all the attendant confusion? Because the British public/voter does not trust them. And with good reason.

    Perhaps Thatcher did.
    And then she created a mess all of her own.
    One that is still being felt in the North of England.

    And I am very well aware of what history does and does not do thanks.
    What it does not do is act the same when conditions are different so stop trying to act like some soothsayer.

    I have no idea why opinion polls do anything. I stopped paying attention to them when they predicted Kinnock would beat Thatcher. Back when I lived in Thatcher's UK, In fact I was living in the North of England then. It was a wasteland of unemployment. People were that poor they couldn't follow Tebbit's advice to get on their bikes because no one could afford a bike.

    But I imagine Tory Press Headlines screaming demonstrable lies may have some impact - we already have seen how gullible some UK voters are. They are voting to drive their own economy off a cliff because some posh boys and a wide boy on the make talked them into it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,546 ✭✭✭quokula


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    Perhaps Thatcher did.
    And then she created a mess all of her own.
    One that is still being felt in the North of England.

    And I am very well aware of what history does and does not do thanks.
    What it does not do is act the same when conditions are different so stop trying to act like some soothsayer.

    I have no idea why opinion polls do anything. I stopped paying attention to them when they predicted Kinnock would beat Thatcher. Back when I lived in Thatcher's UK, In fact I was living in the North of England then. It was a wasteland of unemployment. People were that poor they couldn't follow Tebbit's advice to get on their bikes because no one could afford a bike.

    But I imagine Tory Press Headlines screaming demonstrable lies may have some impact - we already have seen how gullible some UK voters are. They are voting to drive their own economy off a cliff because some posh boys and a wide boy on the make talked them into it.

    On polling, the Yougov tracker over the last few years is interesting.

    polls.png

    Notice the stark difference in direction of travel for Corbyn, between the periods of an election campaign when people actually see him speak or hear his policies, and the periods between elections when all they get is the constant stream of propoganda from the right wing papers that dominate the media over there.

    Johnson hasn't collapsed so far in the way May did though. Which I find quite inexplicable. Who in their right mind looks at anything Boris Johnson does or says and thinks he's the man that should lead the country. It really boggles the mind.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,206 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Canterbury was one of stand-out results in 2017, with Labour overturning a 10K majority and 103 successive years of the constituency returning a Blue.

    But the Labour win was less than 200 votes which would put it in the top 5 Tory targets.
    So, conscious of this the Lib Dem candidate pulled out today, specifically saying it was to avoid handing it back to the Tories. The local parliamentary party seems to be in general agreement with him.

    And yet Lib Dem HQ seem to be determined to stand a candidate regardless. Without local canvassers and being a parachuted outsider they'll probably only get 1500 votes or so, but could be the difference that stops a huge Labour hold.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/12/lib-dem-candidate-stands-aside-to-avoid-nightmare-of-tory-win

    You'd have to wonder what Jo Swinson's thought process is here, it really looks like Tory-enablement.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,925 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo



    You'd have to wonder what Jo Swinson's thought process is here, it really looks like Tory-enablement.

    Anyone with any knowledge of Swinson will know that Marr got it right the last time she was on. You are the 'pro-remain wing of the Conservative Party'

    See the end of this video

    https://twitter.com/chessmartinez/status/1193193829068951554


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Anyone with any knowledge of Swinson will know that Marr got it right the last time she was on. You are the 'pro-remain wing of the Conservative Party'

    See the end of this video

    https://twitter.com/chessmartinez/status/1193193829068951554

    Ideally they win in seats and keep Tories out and she loses her seat to the SNP.


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