General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

liamtech

Rjd2 wrote: »

I think so as well.

Johnson has to have a near flawless month or either hope Corbyn is absolutely awful. I have issues with Jez but he is a decent campaigner.

Boris if Scotland and London is out of play still has to win a lot of tight seats for a majority. Is it possible?

Yep of course,,but the 4/7 with bookies is madness. You can find a much safer 4/7 in the premier league next weekend rather than sweating on that for the next month. :P

I hope you are all correct - just to make that clear i genuinely do - I just worry that the opposition will remain in opposition, despite more than 50% of the electorate voting for them - and the torys will have a majority

Time will tell. Btw i will be staying up for results night - all argument and disagreement aside, anyone else planning on it???

Perhaps we could set up a separate thread and discuss the results as they come in:)

Northern Ireland results will be fascinating for me in particular

Bannasidhe

liamtech wrote: »

Time will tell. Btw i will be staying up for results night - all argument and disagreement aside, anyone else planning on it???

Perhaps we could set up a separate thread and discuss the results as they come in:)

Northern Ireland results will be fascinating for me in particular

I'll be there.
For me Scotland will be fascinating.

Professor Moriarty

liamtech wrote: »

I hope you are all correct - just to make that clear i genuinely do - I just worry that the opposition will remain in opposition, despite more than 50% of the electorate voting for them - and the torys will have a majority

Time will tell. Btw i will be staying up for results night - all argument and disagreement aside, anyone else planning on it???

Perhaps we could set up a separate thread and discuss the results as they come in:)

Northern Ireland results will be fascinating for me in particular

The Tories got a majority in 2015 with 37%.

Danzy

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/labour-election-manifesto-activists-radical-policies

Labour activists are going hard to sink the ship.

I think there is a strong chance that Labour will take an almighty battering.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: I have moved some posts over from the Brexit thread and deleted some that were too far off topic, namely the ones concerning what to do with returning ISIS fighters.

liamtech

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Tories got a majority in 2015 with 37%.

Yes exactly - and thats my fear - due to FPTP it is easy to see the combined % of Lib dem, Labour, Unite to remain, Plaid, SNP, etc getting a bigger % than the Torys - but FPTP puts Boris into Number 10

FrancieBrady

liamtech wrote: »

Northern Ireland results will be fascinating for me in particular

Northern Ireland will not be counted until the following day as usual I presume?

26000 Elephants

26000 Elephants wrote: »

But I reckon the BBC have been downright prejudiced to him today. I noticed earlier on another channel Boris getting heckled and then snubbed in Warwickshire, but on the report an hour ago on BBC news it was mysteriously a sent.

Not to quote myself, but just watching 10oclock News and they have shown all the hassle Johnson got in Yorkshire/Warwickshire along with Corbyns heckler.

Obviously they got some flack for it, but its clear there is some serious editorialising going on in the beeb.

liamtech

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I'll be there.
For me Scotland will be fascinating.

Id be very curious to get your opinion on scotland

My own thesis would be that the SNP would win the majority of seats. For the reason that

• The behavior of the Scottish Tory's in the HOC, and of the Tory's in general, has been incredibly provocative towards the SNP. Even if not a nationalist, Scottish people will have noted that and i could see the Torys losing their seats (FPTP means only a few percent is enough in many of the seats too so)
• Labour seemed to lose their edge in Scotland since about 2010

As for Swinson's seat - that is gonna be VERY interesting indeed

Professor Moriarty

liamtech wrote: »

Yes exactly - and thats my fear - due to FPTP it is easy to see the combined % of Lib dem, Labour, Unite to remain, Plaid, SNP, etc getting a bigger % than the Torys - but FPTP puts Boris into Number 10

It's the most likely scenario as things stand.

Danzy

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/labour-election-manifesto-activists-radical-policies

Labour activists are going hard to sink the ship.

Good chance that not only will their be a Tory majority but Labour will lose its heartlands.

As if alienating Scotland wasn't enough.

johnnyskeleton

As strange as it may sound, I hope the Tories get a massive majority e.g. 80 or more, so that they can ignore the ERG types.

The Johnson deal is basically the May deal with a permanent backstop (or the front stop, or the permastop, or whatever people are calling it).

This is the best outcome for Ireland short of the UK staying in the EU.

I dont see how a remain majority can possibly win as the UK are stuck in the Tory v Labour duopoly.

Labour are utterly reprensible. Kier Starmer on Piers Morgan may have been ambushed and the Tories may have falsely edited the footage as a meme, but what shouldnt be lost is that Labours policy is:
1. Have another referendum;
2. Show absolutely no leadership or opinion either way;
3. Somehow use 1. and 2. above to agree a deal with the EU for which they have absolutely no concrete plans as tk what it looks like;
4. Whenever any kind of concrete proposal arises, it splits the party. So just keep talking about how wonderful its all going to be at some unspecified point in the future.

Crazy that Labour are worse than the Tories kn Brexit but there ya go.

Hopefully SNP sweep the board in Scotland, and Lib Dems do better than expected. But for all our sakes wed better hope that Labour support collapses. If it doesnt, its either a hung parliament or labour coalition, both of which options will lead to another 3-5 yeads of Brexit wheel spinning

Joe_ Public

Danzy wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/labour-election-manifesto-activists-radical-policies

Labour activists are going hard to sink the ship.

I think there is a strong chance that Labour will take an almighty battering.

Very difficult conundrum to solve. Labour support swinging towards a younger, more cosmopolitan demographic very much pro immigration but how to square that with the traditional base who want a tougher line. They'll have to fudge it somehow i think, but nobodys going to be entirely happy with that.

hotmail.com

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Northern Ireland will not be counted until the following day as usual I presume?

Since 2010, votes in the North get counted overnight.

An Ciarraioch

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Northern Ireland will not be counted until the following day as usual I presume?

In 2017 they counted overnight, like the UK.

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Very difficult conundrum to solve. Labour support swinging towards a younger, more cosmopolitan demographic very much pro immigration but how to square that with the traditional base who want a tougher line. They'll have to fudge it somehow i think, but nobodys going to be entirely happy with that.

How to square appealing to young cosmopolitans who want a position on migration that was even too radically free market for Thatcher but decide calling it solidarity or Internationalism makes it compatible with welfare state, public housing, unions, workers rights etc.

Can't be done.

Labour hasn't an idea who it represents or even a coherent and unified vision.

hotmail.com

Latest polls tonight continue to show support rising for the 2 main parties.

It can't be 2017 all over again?

FrancieBrady

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In 2017 they counted overnight, like the UK.

Must be the Referendum we had to wait on.

briany

What has to happen in order for any kind of Labour-led government to be possible? Where do Labour have a chance at picking up seats? Where do the Conservatives have a chance of losing them? Is there a by-constituency poll which would give a clearer picture of the electoral battle and where things could go wrong or right for either of the main parties?

liamtech

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

As strange as it may sound, I hope the Tories get a massive majority e.g. 80 or more, so that they can ignore the ERG types.

The Johnson deal is basically the May deal with a permanent backstop (or the front stop, or the permastop, or whatever people are calling it).

This is the best outcome for Ireland short of the UK staying in the EU.

I dont see how a remain majority can possibly win as the UK are stuck in the Tory v Labour duopoly.

Labour are utterly reprensible. Kier Starmer on Piers Morgan may have been ambushed and the Tories may have falsely edited the footage as a meme, but what shouldnt be lost is that Labours policy is:
1. Have another referendum;
2. Show absolutely no leadership or opinion either way;
3. Somehow use 1. and 2. above to agree a deal with the EU for which they have absolutely no concrete plans as tk what it looks like;
4. Whenever any kind of concrete proposal arises, it splits the party. So just keep talking about how wonderful its all going to be at some unspecified point in the future.

Crazy that Labour are worse than the Tories kn Brexit but there ya go.

Hopefully SNP sweep the board in Scotland, and Lib Dems do better than expected. But for all our sakes wed better hope that Labour support collapses. If it doesnt, its either a hung parliament or labour coalition, both of which options will lead to another 3-5 yeads of Brexit wheel spinning

I would still take the chance of a second referendum, even after Corbyn's Ludicrous renegotiation fence sitting, over a Brexit. The second ref gives the real chance that all of this can be called a halt to -

I worry about Boris's Deal in terms of the Unionist/Loyalist position - and whether it is fueling the fire against a return to power sharing - the usual tact from the Unionists of blaming everyone but themselves, or the Torys of course; but there is a danger that the BREXIT DEAL NI segment becomes the DUP's 'Irish Language Act' - namely that NI staying within the CU/CM permanently is the reason they wont go into Mandatory Coalition- unless Nationalists agree to vote with them as the deal says, and leave

But again, i just hope maybe Labour will try and co-operate with remain parties - not looking good

Joe_ Public

Danzy wrote: »

How to square appealing to young cosmopolitans who want a position on migration that was even too radically free market for Thatcher but decide calling it solidarity or Internationalism makes it compatible with welfare state, public housing, unions, workers rights etc.

Can't be done.

Labour hasn't an idea who it represents or even a coherent and unified vision.

Well, i wouldnt go along with that fully but there is a certain amount of truth there alright. Uk society is fragmenting and the whole broad church party thing, just about manageable at the best of times, is taking a kicking. Unless just a brexit hiatus, tories pretty much given up on it. PR system badly needed.

Strazdas

briany wrote: »

What has to happen in order for any kind of Labour-led government to be possible? Where do Labour have a chance at picking up seats? Where do the Conservatives have a chance of losing them? Is there a by-constituency poll which would give a clearer picture of the electoral battle and where things could go wrong or right for either of the main parties?

Virtually anything that leaves the Tories short of a majority increases the chances.

You could have a multi party coalition with Labour as the biggest party or even a 'confidence and supply' arrangement which makes Corbyn PM.

Joe_ Public

briany wrote: »

What has to happen in order for any kind of Labour-led government to be possible? Where do Labour have a chance at picking up seats? Where do the Conservatives have a chance of losing them? Is there a by-constituency poll which would give a clearer picture of the electoral battle and where things could go wrong or right for either of the main parties?

Lot of sites with good constituency maps like this one:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50349111


Tories will lose seats in scotland and in south of England (recall johnson basically writing off guildford a while back). Labour could make more ground in london, but success will depend on fighting off the tory challenge in midlands and north. Watching johnson bumbling his way round Yorkshire today, getting short shrift will certainly have lifted spirits as those are kind of people johnson needs to win over to have hope of majority.

Magic number for labour would be around 270-275. They could form gov with that but would be good performance to get it.

Letwin_Larry

hotmail.com wrote: »

Latest polls tonight continue to show support rising for the 2 main parties.

It can't be 2017 all over again?

unsurprising tbh.
there are only 2 people who can be PM at the end of this, but the Lib Dems doing quite well in the polls also.

Rjd2

Strazdas wrote: »

Virtually anything that leaves the Tories short of a majority increases the chances.

You could have a multi party coalition with Labour as the biggest party or even a 'confidence and supply' arrangement which makes Corbyn PM.

Swinson will be under serious pressure to demand the head of Corbyn in such a scenario. People don't quite grasp the bad blood between those who fled Labour to join the Lib Dems such as Berger and across the party ranks. Obviously the Tory defectors will not want Jez as PM.

She's set herself up for a fall saying she won't go into government with either Boris or Jez, because their is no other way into power.

Ideally for Corbyn, a majority or something with the SNP would be less of a headache than having to placate Swinson.

Bannasidhe

liamtech wrote: »

Id be very curious to get your opinion on scotland

My own thesis would be that the SNP would win the majority of seats. For the reason that

• The behavior of the Scottish Tory's in the HOC, and of the Tory's in general, has been incredibly provocative towards the SNP. Even if not a nationalist, Scottish people will have noted that and i could see the Torys losing their seats (FPTP means only a few percent is enough in many of the seats too so)
• Labour seemed to lose their edge in Scotland since about 2010

As for Swinson's seat - that is gonna be VERY interesting indeed

I think with Davidson gone the Tories will struggle, their only hope are the relatively few Leave voters - especially those who also want to remain in the UK. But that will come down to the distribution of those voters. Against that is an ingrained dislike of the Tories in Scotland. Davidson bucked the trend there.

I expect to see a very strong SNP performance. Tbh, they are the party who have impressed me most in the HoC.
Swinson could be in trouble. Her Tory-Lite tendencies could go against her.

As for Labour- that is a hard one to call. They may attract the Leavers who can't stomach the Tories and feel at least with a 2nd ref they get another crack at Brexit.

Labour's main problem in Scotland is that increasingly, esp under Blair, they became seen as a party of Westminster/England and not relevant to Scotland - and the SNP outflanked them on the left. Which was not difficult when the Blairites were in control.

It all depends on if Corbyn can make the LP relevant in a Scottish context and if there is enough Pro-UK union on the left to make a difference.

Joe_ Public

Nomination deadline closes 4pm today. Interesting that speculation about johnson switching from uxbridge refuses to die down. Still not convinced but if their polling figures suggested a substantial risk, guess it wouldnt be out of the question.

Rjd2

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Nomination deadline closes 4pm today. Interesting that speculation about johnson switching from uxbridge refuses to die down. Still not convinced but if their polling figures suggested a substantial risk, guess it wouldnt be out of the question.

Anyone creditable or remotely neutral suggesting he will switch? He would have switched months ago if he was going to.

He was re-selected by tory members a few months in his area to run so chatter about him switching was never serious or in good faith.

Joe_ Public

Rjd2 wrote: »

Anyone creditable or remotely neutral suggesting he will switch? He would have switched months ago if he was going to.

He was re-selected by tory members a few months in his area to run so chatter about him switching was never serious or in good faith.

I dont know credible but jon craig on sky mentioned it on the campaign show between 9-10pm last night. Lib dem candidate has withdrawn (though may well be replaced) and johnson apparently facing a big problem with hs2 rail protests in the constituency. It doesnt seem at all likely, just i wont be astonished if it does come to pass either, thats all.

liamtech

Rjd2 wrote: »

Anyone creditable or remotely neutral suggesting he will switch? He would have switched months ago if he was going to.

He was re-selected by tory members a few months in his area to run so chatter about him switching was never serious or in good faith.

It would damage his whole election campaign if he switched - so he probably wont

but if he does....

He should be rightly attacked on this in every single interview or debate

Any time he replies with 'what the British people want'.. or the 'British people are fed up' - he is open to attack on being a carpetbagger.

Right now anything that can be used to attack the torys should be employed - fight fire with fire - An advert could run on every station about the Conservative Carpetbagger PM, so i for one hope he does switch-

Although for the chance of watching him lose his seat :D:D :eek: