What ELM got next!

ELM327

DrPhilG wrote: »

So at a guess, what do you reckon a 2016, €50k Model S will be selling for in 3 years?

PS the CPO cars come with 4 years warranty don't they? So in 3 years it would still have a year left to entice another buyer.

4 years 50k miles - about 1.2-1.5 years driving for me.


No idea in 3 years. if we assume linear depreciation curve it would depreciate another 50% so we're down to 25k

Lumen

ELM327 wrote: »

if we assume linear depreciation curve it would depreciate another 50% so we're down to 25k

I'm sorry to be that guy, but I think that's geometric depreciation, not linear.

Forecasting depreciation of a car like the Model S is super hard. The equivalent in speed and comfort is, what, something like an Audi RS5, and that would lose maybe 70% after 6 years.

But fast fossil cars in Ireland become deeply unappealing as they age, cos you're left paying €2350/year for motor tax on top of five figure bills when something goes wrong.

The Model S at that age will either be a useless brick or a slightly creaky spaceship with near-zero running costs. Who knows?

ELM327

Lumen wrote: »

I'm sorry to be that guy, but I think that's geometric depreciation, not linear.

Forecasting depreciation of a car like the Model S is super hard. The equivalent in speed and comfort is, what, something like an Audi RS5, and that would lose maybe 70% after 6 years.

But fast fossil cars in Ireland become deeply unappealing as they age, cos you're left paying €2350/year for motor tax on top of five figure bills when something goes wrong.

The Model S at that age will either be a useless brick or a slightly creaky spaceship with near-zero running costs. Who knows?

Geometric means a plane with each point equidistant from each other.
Linear pro rated distribution is what would describe a 50% 3 year half life

Lumen

ELM327 wrote: »

Geometric means a plane with each point equidistant from each other.
Linear pro rated distribution is what would describe a 50% 3 year half life

https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=1114

unkel

I just heard that in a Tesla OTA update from a few weeks ago the excessive logging has been greatly reduced, so MCU issues will become less likely. Anyone any link to that?

Also a few places have been set up in the Netherlands (where Tesla Model S was the best selling EV for years) where you can bring your Model S and they swap out the MCU for a reburbished one there and then for a couple hundred quid (exactly like I expected would happen)

I really wouldn't be too concerned about that and similar issues popping up on used out of warranty Model S

wcooba

Great thread. I'm more and more thinking about used model S as a replacement for my A7 next year (so far the main contender was 530e). Picking CPO example from the UK sounds very tempting - thanks for the write-up ELM.

As for the MCU fix - it seems to cost around €600 in Netherlands: http://www.allsystemsgo.nl/?page_id=491 although it needs to be done preemptively. Once it's gone - it needs to be replaced as keys cannot be retrieved.

unkel

wcooba wrote: »

As for the MCU fix - it seems to cost around €600 in Netherlands: http://www.allsystemsgo.nl/?page_id=491 although it needs to be done preemptively. Once it's gone - it needs to be replaced as keys cannot be retrieved.

And that looks like a pricey one, there are cheaper places. It's roughly €300 for replacing the cheap 16GB eMMC chip with a high end 64GB eMMC chip (data has to be transferred too) and €200 to remove the unit and re-fit it after the job is done. For an extra €100 you can upgrade to 4G too

unkel

I did a bit more reading up on it and it seems to be safe to wait until you get the first symptoms the MCU is failing (not starting up until a few times trying, lines on screen, etc.) and then to have it replaced. So no need to spend your €600 on preventative maintenance until you know you have the problem. This might help the OP and others reading here too.

Idbatterim

Not a chance a 45k Tesla now will be worth 15 k in 3 years ! We aren’t talking about a new 3 series here

Unless it had Bananas mileage and was in tag order etc ...

At that stage could you just salvage the battery , get pv cells and power your house with it ?

unkel

Second hand Tesla model S battery modules go for about $1k each. OPs car has about 17 of those modules. So even at scrap value the car would still be worth about €15k

So indeed, the notion that a reasonable condition model S is worth just €15k after 6 years is nonsense. In the case of a 3 year old Model 3, even more nonsense!

Mike9832

unkel wrote: »

Second hand Tesla model S battery modules go for about $1k each. OPs car has about 17 of those modules. So even at scrap value the car would still be worth about €15k

So indeed, the notion that a reasonable condition model S is worth just €15k after 6 years is nonsense. In the case of a 3 year old Model 3, even more nonsense!

Exactly

Batteries are well understood, it would take some life changing battery breakthrough to make that car worth 15k add battery cost to get so slow and we all know that ain't happening

Car will be worth well over 20k imo

ELM327

unkel wrote: »

I did a bit more reading up on it and it seems to be safe to wait until you get the first symptoms the MCU is failing (not starting up until a few times trying, lines on screen, etc.) and then to have it replaced. So no need to spend your €600 on preventative maintenance until you know you have the problem. This might help the OP and others reading here too.

I already blagged a free CCS upgrade.
I have a SC appointment on 5th Dec for some niggly issues (sunroof seal seems dodgy, usb port one side not working, lights badly out of alignment and a couple of MCU freezes requiring hard reboot. - booking all in while under warranty) might see if I can blag a free MCU upgrade too! If not, I may ask for the cost anyway.

KCross

ELM327 wrote: »

I already blagged a free CCS upgrade.
I have a SC appointment on 5th Dec for some niggly issues (sunroof seal seems dodgy, usb port one side not working, lights badly out of alignment and a couple of MCU freezes requiring hard reboot. - booking all in while under warranty) might see if I can blag a free MCU upgrade too! If not, I may ask for the cost anyway.

That's a lucky escape on your part that its happening now. Trying to get that fixed out of warranty would either be expensive via Tesla Ireland or painful and time consuming via a 3rd party in another country and also expensive!

Definitely push for the new MCU upgrade.

ELM327

KCross wrote: »

That's a lucky escape on your part that its happening now. Trying to get that fixed out of warranty would either be expensive via Tesla Ireland or painful and time consuming via a 3rd party in another country and also expensive!

Definitely push for the new MCU upgrade.

For sure
I'm hoping that - like the DC charging issue - they can see it in the logs and fix it under warranty. (MCU2 would be a good upgrade and I'd happily split the cost of it)

unkel

ELM327 wrote: »

a couple of MCU freezes requiring hard reboot. - booking all in while under warranty) might see if I can blag a free MCU upgrade too! If not, I may ask for the cost anyway.

Deffo a free replacement under warranty. Good luck with trying to get free upgrade, but you know yourself, the most demanding customers get the best service

ELM327

unkel wrote: »

Deffo a free replacement under warranty. Good luck with trying to get free upgrade, but you know yourself, the most demanding customers get the best service

Exactly... like a free CCS upgrade that should have cost 500 quid :D
Don't ask don't get is my motto.

copeyhagen

paid vrt yesterday, 3500. thats after the 5k grant, so the OMSP by revenue is 61k.. ****ing idiots.

needless to say ill be appealing it, considering it was 41k euros..

coupe of dodgy done deal ads incoming.. cough cough

ELM327

copeyhagen wrote: »

paid vrt yesterday, 3500. thats after the 5k grant, so the OMSP by revenue is 61k.. ****ing idiots.

needless to say ill be appealing it, considering it was 41k euros..

coupe of dodgy done deal ads incoming.. cough cough

3500, thats the upper end of what I was expecting based on the iPace numbers.
What year was yours again?

copeyhagen

152d
90d

afaik someone vrtd a 171d a few weeks ago for almost the same price.

I was expecting/hoping for the 2k mark upon hearing the above.

copeyhagen

unkel wrote: »

Doesn't the adaptor cost about the same or only slightly less? I'd get the CCS retro done for convenience.

just to follow up on this, the adaptor afaik is around 200, but the retrofit is around 500?

if they end up being closer ill get the retrofit of course.

all of our work chargers (including the 22kw I have to myself lol) are all type 2.

can the retrofitted car still take the type 2 and the ccs no?

ELM327

copeyhagen wrote: »

152d
90d

afaik someone vrtd a 171d a few weeks ago for almost the same price.

I was expecting/hoping for the 2k mark upon hearing the above.

Ah ok, well then appeal it for sure.
I think the owners club on facebook have a standard template they suggest.


Mine is 161 90d, will report back after the appointment this weekend with how much I am charged.

copeyhagen wrote: »

just to follow up on this, the adaptor afaik is around 200, but the retrofit is around 500?

if they end up being closer ill get the retrofit of course.

all of our work chargers (including the 22kw I have to myself lol) are all type 2.

can the retrofitted car still take the type 2 and the ccs no?

The chademo adapter (no refit needed) or the ccs + refit are both around 500 quid. You cannot use the CCS without getting the refit. After the refit, you can use type 2, CCS and chademo.

ELM327

So, one month to the day since collection will be 5th December. And guess what Severus is getting for his anniversary? A trip to Sandyford SC for a shopping list of niggles and one major issue (the mcu I described above)

I'll see what they say, it's started happening more and to be honest I'm glad it is happening now and not a couple of years down the line. If I can blag an MCU2 upgrade all the better!!

I'm on course to have done ~4750km, used 1150kWh at 234 wh/km in that month. (and probably paid for about 25% of those kWh)

jhegarty

How is the real world range with the colder weather ?

ELM327

jhegarty wrote: »

How is the real world range with the colder weather ?

getting about 275-300km

unkel

ELM327 wrote: »

getting about 275-300km

Ouch! You weren't wrong when you said that winter usage in EVs is brutal for you!

275km is just 58% of EPA range. In Ioniq in winter you got about 150km, so about 75% of EPA range?

ELM327

unkel wrote: »

Ouch! You weren't wrong when you said that winter usage in EVs is brutal for you!

275km is just 58% of EPA range. In Ioniq in winter you got about 150km, so about 75% of EPA range?

In fairness I don't plug in every day anymore (unlike with the Ioniq), so the preheat is done from battery. And it's a PTC heater so much worse than Ioniq's efficient heat pump. I lost 60km of rated range preheating the car yesterday and this morning!


I reckon 325km in one trip would be doable but who does that in one go!


(Rated range on mine at 100% charge is 404-406km, so its got some degradation.)

charlieIRL

unkel wrote: »

In Ioniq in winter you got about 150km, so about 75% of EPA range?

Reading that makes me feel so much better about the eGolf!!!

Calahonda52

ELM327 wrote: »

I reckon 325km in one trip would be doable but who does that in one go!

I do nenagh to Belfast: 330km each way. 75 euro for return trip on petrol:eek:

unkel

charlieIRL wrote: »

Reading that makes me feel so much better about the eGolf!!!

Getting 75% of EPA rating in winter with a lot of 120km/h motorway driving is very high. Most EVs would get a percentage a lot lower than that. I'd say you'll stay feeling much better about the eGolf if you don't give this a try

Gumbo

charlieIRL wrote: »

Reading that makes me feel so much better about the eGolf!!!

Match the driving speed and distance as elm in his MS and you’re eGolf will suffer just as bad. Just as any EV out there.