ALL - WEATHER BETS

bookman2

MaxBet wrote: »

3.05 at Southwell tomorrow , LIGHTNING ATTACK looks a bit overpriced at the very early 33/1 with Hills .
Trainer has a dire record here but has booked Andrew Mullen for this horse’s fibresand debut . Only his second run for this yard and by a top Southwell sire , it’s interesting he’s dropped him half a mile and booked that jockey .
Won a 10f heavy ground Redcar seller on his last run for Richard Fahey in October , then never got into it on reappearance at Kempton earlier this month over 12f .
His only other previous AW run was a good 4th at Newcastle off 4lb higher than he runs now .
Only the 3 places but probably worth a little ew at a big price

those early prices are pointless, they won't lay anything and if you back a few price droppers you will get restricted

MaxBet

bookman2 wrote: »

those early prices are pointless, they won't lay anything and if you back a few price droppers you will get restricted

You’ll get restricted by beating the sp regularly regardless of what time you back at . Afternoon , night before , day of race ... all the same . The only difference being the potential for a greater percentage shift from the very early prices .

As for not laying anything , I suppose that depends on how much you’re trying to get on .

My point about these three runners was more about highlighting the potential improvement for the introduction to fibresand based on their pedigree , hence no bets were actually advised in my usual way .

The horses were all of interest to me in that regard before any firms even had them priced up .

bookman2

MaxBet wrote: »

You’ll get restricted by beating the sp regularly regardless of what time you back at . Afternoon , night before , day of race ... all the same . The only difference being the potential for a greater percentage shift from the very early prices .

As for not laying anything , I suppose that depends on how much you’re trying to get on .

My point about these three runners was more about highlighting the potential improvement for the introduction to fibresand based on their pedigree , hence no bets were actually advised in my usual way .

The horses were all of interest to me in that regard before any firms even had them priced up .

you will get restricted a lot faster at this early prices - must be the only reason they have these is to provide a cheap tissue.

MaxBet

bookman2 wrote: »

you will get restricted a lot faster at this early prices - must be the only reason they have these is to provide a cheap tissue.

Not my own experience of it and that’s all I have to go on .

I generally don’t ever try to get a proper bet on until after 8 the night before so I can’t say much about lads who regularly back the following days horses in the previous afternoon .

Like I said though , my intention was to highlight the horses , not the prices and I didn’t put them up as actual bets because of that .

MaxBet

Poor enough today but a bit unlucky with the 7.45 , 2 bets ... 2nd and 3rd . Beaten well by one that I looked at but ruled out due to the draw . They were the only 2 that ran anywhere close to what I hoped but another barren day , -6 .

Staked : 242pts
Returned : 165.5pts


Jan 30


12.50 Sou -
QAARAAT 12/1 bet365

8.00 Cfd -
RAINBOW JAZZ 10/1 bet365 , BetVictor

MaxBet

Jan 30

3.35 Sou -
ALEX GRACIE 10/1 bet365

MaxBet

12/1 2nd to start off with , hopefully not a sign of things to come . Felt he had a bit more to give there too but winner deserved it , that jockey is great value for his claim


Adding one more in the last at Southwell


4.05 Sou -
PRIVATE MATTER 10/1 bet365

MaxBet

bookman2 wrote: »

those early prices are pointless, they won't lay anything and if you back a few price droppers you will get restricted

Didn’t matter in the end anyway , 25/1 SP ....

bookman2

MaxBet wrote: »

Didn’t matter in the end anyway , 25/1 SP ....

42 betfair sp - well done that will do well for your profit/loss!

MaxBet

bookman2 wrote: »

42 betfair sp - well done that will do well for your profit/loss!

Not for the p&l unfortunately , just the pocket

MaxBet

Last one for today . Not one for maximum faith but has track , trip , grade and mark in his favour today. Was hoping for slightly bigger but I’ll take what’s available now


Jan 30

6.30 Cfd -
YOURE COOL 14/1 BetVictor , WHill

MaxBet

Jan 31


4.20 Lin -
BAYSTON HILL 17/2 PP , BF Sportsbook

MaxBet

Jan 31

5.00 Dun -
BIRKENHEAD 10/1 bet365 , BetVictor

8.00 Dun -
TICKS THE BOXES 14/1 PP , BetVictor

8.30 Dun -
MY GOOD BROTHER 20/1 PP , BetVictor

MaxBet

Top up time . Sheep / lamb and all that ...



4.20 Lin -
BAYSTON HILL 1pt win @ 25/1

to add to last nights point . Lack of headgear might be a concern but still looks a generous enough price to me

MaxBet

Both have reached the price where I “have” to back them ....


6.45 Nwc -
TARNHELM bet365 , BetFred

7.15 Nwc -
MR KODI 8/1 bet365 , BetVictor

MaxBet

Less said the better .


Staked : 254pts
Returned : 165.5pts

MaxBet

Feb 1


2.20 Lin -
BEGGARMAN 18/1 PP , BetVictor
TOPKAPI STAR 12/1 PP , SkyBet

4.45 Kem -
MRS BENSON 14/1 PP , BF Sportsbook
MAERCHENGARTEN 8/1 PP , BF Sportsbook

6.45 Kem -
BUSY STREET 22/1 PP , BetVictor
COEUR DE LION 12/1 bet365 , BetVictor

7.15 Kem -
J GAYE 11/1 PP , BF Sportsbook

MaxBet

Very annoying to see Elusif win the opener at Kempton after flagging him up here a while back , going close at big odds . Was never going to be a backable price for a while after that .
Couldn’t understand why Keightley never ran him at Kempton in the run up to Christmas

IAMAMORON

Sorry for butting in max. But i cant get away from Pinto Kid in the next at kempton.

Fanshawe is getting loads of winners.

MaxBet

J GAYE a nose away from a 5pt profit for the day .
As it turned out , 7pts down the pan .

Back tomorrow night for more torture at Wolves on Monday


Staked : 261pts
Returned : 165.5pts

MaxBet

Enough of that 100k race nonsense at Leopardstown , time for some proper racing .. Class 6 claimers , Hands and Heels apprentices ...



Feb 3


5.00 Wol -
MAJOR CRISPIES 28/1 generally

6.30 Wol -
SHE’S EASYONTHEEYE 15/2

7.30 Wol -
JACK BERRY HOUSE 9/1 generally

8.30 Wol -
YASIR 10/1 PP , BetVictor

MaxBet

5.00
Starting point here was looking to get the favourite beaten . Don’t think he is a very to reproduce his Kempton form here , has never looked the same on Tapeta . Thought 13/8 was a crazy price . First stop was Caledonia Laird who is on a winnable mark and took this race last year . Trainer is on a nice run but I’d have a doubt about todays jockey and even at 6/1 I thought he was a 2 points away from a bet . That may have been wrong as he’s been backed in overnight .
So , looking (a lot) further down the market , MAJOR CRISPIES makes more appeal at a big price . First run back from a break lto in a CD handicap , he went along at a nice clip before expectedly running out of puff but still not beaten far in 5th . Dropped 2lbs for that to 44 , his 3 AW wins have come off marks from 69 to 79 so if he comes on even a small bit for that return run then it wouldn’t be a shock to see him involved . Has plenty of bits and pieces of 6/7f Tapeta form that’s as good as anything else here .

MaxBet

6.30
Hot Hot Hot is the only course winner here , never mind course and distance winner but she’s no sure thing to reproduce that win . While it was ran in a good time , it’s hard to take it at face value given her prior to that race and on one run since .
The move on David Evans Microscopic in a first time visor is interesting but I’ve already gone with SHE’S EASYONTHEEYE for the in form trainer and jockey , John Quinn and Jason Hart .
Finished 3rd , beaten a length with a bit left to give on her only C/CD start in a nursery 3 runs ago and now runs off 2lb lower .
Easy enough in the market this morning , I would’ve hoped otherwise but still happy enough with the bet on this one .

MaxBet

7.30
JACK BERRY HOUSE won on debut at Newcastle over 6f and earned an opening mark of 75 . Hasn’t added to that in 9 runs since over 7 and a mile but now steps up to 9.5f for his first run at Wolverhampton .
Running off 62 now , with first time blinkers and Ben Curtis booked he looked worth a bet at the price , dropped into a claimer .
Not the sort of race I usually back in but he did stand out a bit . Been well supported too .
Bond Angel should struggle on the surface , Debbonair and Windsor Cross are obvious dangers .

MaxBet

8.30
Again , not the type of race I’d usually aim for and the current price about YASIR probably explains why .
Basically I reckon any of them could win this and it wouldn’t be a shock but the pick has plenty of solid form for this level around here over a variety of trips and is on a winnable mark .
Most recent run over CD was November , beaten 3.5L off 2lbs higher when he would’ve been closer with a better jockey on . Possibly would’ve got closer even with me on his back .
David Probert takes over and should hopefully manage a bit better today .
You could find holes in all of them but my dart landed here , just ahead of Lyford .

MaxBet

MaxBet wrote: »

5.00
Starting point here was looking to get the favourite beaten . Don’t think he is a very to reproduce his Kempton form here , has never looked the same on Tapeta . Thought 13/8 was a crazy price . First stop was Caledonia Laird who is on a winnable mark and took this race last year . Trainer is on a nice run but I’d have a doubt about todays jockey and even at 6/1 I thought he was a 2 points away from a bet . That may have been wrong as he’s been backed in overnight .
So , looking (a lot) further down the market , MAJOR CRISPIES makes more appeal at a big price . First run back from a break lto in a CD handicap , he went along at a nice clip before expectedly running out of puff but still not beaten far in 5th . Dropped 2lbs for that to 44 , his 3 AW wins have come off marks from 69 to 79 so if he comes on even a small bit for that return run then it wouldn’t be a shock to see him involved . Has plenty of bits and pieces of 6/7f Tapeta form that’s as good as anything else here .

13/8 crazy price .
4/1 not as crazy .

Major Crispies poor ...

MaxBet

MaxBet wrote: »

6.30
Hot Hot Hot is the only course winner here , never mind course and distance winner but she’s no sure thing to reproduce that win . While it was ran in a good time , it’s hard to take it at face value given her prior to that race and on one run since .
The move on David Evans Microscopic in a first time visor is interesting but I’ve already gone with SHE’S EASYONTHEEYE for the in form trainer and jockey , John Quinn and Jason Hart .
Finished 3rd , beaten a length with a bit left to give on her only C/CD start in a nursery 3 runs ago and now runs off 2lb lower .
Easy enough in the market this morning , I would’ve hoped otherwise but still happy enough with the bet on this one .

Maybe the Hot Hot Hot win should’ve been taken at face value ffs . There was enough juice in the price at one stage today to justify a saver but my judgement is so bad atm that I left it alone

MaxBet

MaxBet wrote: »

7.30
JACK BERRY HOUSE won on debut at Newcastle over 6f and earned an opening mark of 75 . Hasn’t added to that in 9 runs since over 7 and a mile but now steps up to 9.5f for his first run at Wolverhampton .
Running off 62 now , with first time blinkers and Ben Curtis booked he looked worth a bet at the price , dropped into a claimer .
Not the sort of race I usually back in but he did stand out a bit . Been well supported too .
Bond Angel should struggle on the surface , Debbonair and Windsor Cross are obvious dangers .

Chicken dinner @ 11/2 .

MaxBet

No good in the last , +6 for the day .

Staked : 261pts
Returned : 171.5pts

MaxBet

Feb 4

5.25 Kem -
YOLO ARIS 33/1 PP , BF Sportsbook