ALL - WEATHER BETS

MaxBet

5.40 -
MAMILLIUS is still an AW maiden but has a decent level of ability and went very close on polytrack last time . A bit like the pick in the 7.10 , a first attempt on Tapeta is a guess but if he took to it , he looks fairly priced now having drifted this morning to 15/2

8.10 -
Jorvik Prince has been solid all morning but going to take him with one at a price . CUBAN SPIRIT ran well lto winning over this trip at Lingfield off 5lbs lower . Good claimer takes 3lbs off today and given that he ran a good time for that win and has course form here off a higher mark , he looks a fair price now .
Superseded wasn’t far off the selection at Lingfield and even though he’s a bit better off at the weights and has won over CD off higher marks , he was disappointing lto and is very unpredictable overall . 10/1 ish is a good price about him but given the yard , you’d have to think he’d be getting supported if they thought he was up for it today .
Fareeq was close up in that Lingfield race too but all in all , I’d side with Cuban Spirit at the prices



5.40 Wol -
MAMILLIUS 15/2 generally


8.10 Wol -
CUBAN SPIRIT 14/1 generally

MaxBet

Bombed out today , disappointing , -3.

Staked : 280pts
Returned : 184.5pts




Feb 11


2.40 Yor -
AIR OF YORK 12/1


7.50 Nwc -
KENTUCKYCONNECTION 20/1

MaxBet

Air Of York double the price now , great call that was @ 12s

del roy

Max
You have to learn to take the drifts on the chin,
yesterday I looked at Newcastle 7.50 reaver 28/1, thought it was a fantastic price and had a score each way, looked an hour later 80/1 with nearly every book, all pink on oddschecker, thats the end of that I said to myself, now back into 25s and 20s with all.

MaxBet

No offence Del , but I’d rather not learn to accept getting the market wrong ....
I’d rather learn how to get it right more often

del roy

MaxBet wrote: »

No offence Del , but I’d rather not learn to accept getting the market wrong ....
I’d rather learn how to get it right more often

yeah but getting it wrong suggests the horse is not off, you/we have no control over that how many big drifters win, not too many.

MaxBet

I just look at it differently , thinking a horse is a good price at 12/1 and then being able to get double the price is as much my bad judgement as anything about the horse being off
My whole MO is about not doing what everyone else is doing , or at least (in the case of price contracting) trying to do it before everyone else

RocketRaccoon

MaxBet wrote: »

I just look at it differently , thinking a horse is a good price at 12/1 and then being able to get double the price is as much my bad judgement as anything about the horse being off
My whole MO is about not doing what everyone else is doing , or at least (in the case of price contracting) trying to do it before everyone else

It did go off at 14/1 if that helps

MaxBet

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

It did go off at 14/1 if that helps

Just a bit !

MaxBet

Feb 12

4.00 Southwell -
PIAZON 1pt @ 12/1
RED INVADER 1pt @ 25/1

6.00 Kempton -
MAERCHENGARTEN 0.5pt @ 20/1
MOONGAZER 1pt @ 50/1

BoldReason

MaxBet wrote: »

I just look at it differently , thinking a horse is a good price at 12/1 and then being able to get double the price is as much my bad judgement as anything about the horse being off
My whole MO is about not doing what everyone else is doing , or at least (in the case of price contracting) trying to do it before everyone else

This is spot on.
Taking it that the horse is "not off" is a lazy approach. Should you congratulate yourself every time a horse goes off half the price you back him at and say that clearly it wasn't your fault when it goes the other way?

The horse "not being off" is a variable you have no control over and should not be used as an excuse for getting it wrong in most scenarios.

IAMAMORON

MaxBet wrote: »

Feb 12

4.00 Southwell -
PIAZON 1pt @ 12/1
RED INVADER 1pt @ 25/1

6.00 Kempton -
MAERCHENGARTEN 0.5pt @ 20/1
MOONGAZER 1pt @ 50/1

Piazon wins, nice one.

I have the other in a reverse forecast, fingers crossed, it would be a lovely div. Singles as well, I think the worm is turning Max, I can feel it.

MaxBet

Was quietly confident about Moongazer but didn’t go as planned , Piazon got the job done though thankfully . +9.5pts for the day .

Not liking much at Chelmsford so no bets until Friday .

Cheers


Rule 4 on this one , was +8pts for the day

MaxBet

Feb 14

8.30 Dun -
VOYAGEOFDISCOVERY 25/1
NORTHERN SURPRISE 33/1

stretchaq

MaxBet wrote: »

Feb 14

8.30 Dun -
VOYAGEOFDISCOVERY 25/1
NORTHERN SURPRISE 33/1

Don’t know if it’s a good sign or a bad one I backed voyageofdiscory before I read this also giving earl of bunacurry one more chance in 5.45 at Southwell

MaxBet

A good omen hopefully .

Had a look at that 5.45 earlier , was long about drawing a line through it . Optima Petamus would probably be the bet if I had to pick one but good luck with yours

Doubt there’ll be a UK bet on Friday, can see plenty of short priced winners there but possibly 1 or 2 more in Dundalk

NaiveMelodies

MaxBet wrote: »

Feb 14

8.30 Dun -
VOYAGEOFDISCOVERY 25/1
NORTHERN SURPRISE 33/1

I've been waiting for Northern Surprise to get a proper jockey up. My best bet of the year so far.

MaxBet

He’s been badly ridden several times since his last win , usually looks to have a lot more to give . Hopefully get a better steer today like you say . It’s the usual story with the race overall though , there’s several that could pop up . I thought Munfallet would be my bet but the 8s went before I made my mind up so I went elsewhere . Crest Of A Wave should be winning at some stage too but hopefully today’s the day for NS ...


Should have made my mind up quicker ...

MaxBet

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

I've been waiting for Northern Surprise to get a proper jockey up. My best bet of the year so far.

Weight of our wedges squashed the price into 14s now NM ...

NaiveMelodies

MaxBet wrote: »

Weight of our wedges squashed the price into 14s now NM ...

Fingers crossed!

MaxBet

Feb 14

5.45 Southwell -
OPTIMA PETAMUS 10/1

8.00 Dun -
CLONVILLE 12/1

MaxBet

MaxBet wrote: »

Had a look at that 5.45 earlier , was long about drawing a line through it . Optima Petamus would probably be the bet if I had to pick one but good luck with yours

Out to 10/1 now, has to be a bet at that



2nd ... just pipped ...

Brock Turnpike

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Fingers crossed!

Into 10/1

MaxBet

8.00 Dun -
ROMAN WARRIOR 14/1


Sorry , 10 mins before the off is taking the piss a bit but I was just checking the price on Clonville when I saw this one had reached the mark for a bet ..

NaiveMelodies

MaxBet wrote: »

Weight of our wedges squashed the price into 14s now NM ...

Arghhh never settled at all. Almost broke too well.
Time to say goodbye to him perhaps.

MaxBet

Staked : 290.5pts
Returned : 193.5pts

Jaysus that P&L is nasty .


Another poor day , -5pts . Not sure what the weather is going to do over the weekend but one for tomorrow anyway


Feb 15

8.00 Newcastle -
DE BRUYNE HORSE 7/1

Showed a bit more on his first run for this yard last month , well backed and finished a close 2nd with the winner going in again nto . Had a good bit of class not so long ago and even though he’s 2lbs higher now , he’s well treated on past form and unexposed on the All Weather should that first run back from a good break bring him on a bit .


I doubt there’ll be anything else tomorrow . After a quick scan there’s a couple of interesting ones running Sunday at Kempton , hopefully the weather plays ball .

If I don’t throw the toys out beforehand , there’s now 6 weeks left for the thread to turn things around . Unlikely at this stage it has to be said , I’d settle for even getting on any sort of decent run and reducing the deficit .

Cheers

Earendil

Best of luck MB.

MaxBet

MaxBet wrote: »

Doubt there’ll be a UK bet on Friday, can see plenty of short priced winners

7 winning favourites from 7 races at Southwell and 4 from 6 at Lingfield , with one of the other 2 winners returning 6/4 .

Not basing this just on yesterday but I’d been getting the feeling over the winter on the AW that the top end of the market had been obliging more often than usual , might go some way to explaining the poor performance here if it was the case .

Not going on any stats and maybe it’s just some of the races I’ve bet in have worked out that way . Or maybe just clutching at straws ...

Either way , I’ll probably re-assess my own betting next winter anyway . Just betting on the jumps at the weekends and festivals might be a healthier option for the bank . And the head .

MaxBet

Feb 15

8.30 Newcastle -
ZEBULON 11/1


That’s it for Newcastle

MaxBet

Zebulon took too long to settle and cost him at the end , reckon he may well have gotten up . De Bruyne Horse was poor . -2pts today ...


Awful news about Kachy .