Spring 2020..... 1.5m Dairy calves.... discuss.

GrasstoMilk

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/creed-in-the-netherlands-quality-of-irish-calves-indisputable-509744

And a certain poster here would have us all believe that irish calves are not wanted in Europe.

mahoney_j

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/creed-in-the-netherlands-quality-of-irish-calves-indisputable-509744

And a certain poster here would have us all believe that irish calves are not wanted in Europe.

An afull lot been made of this ,good news none the less but we’re at the mercy of weather ,windy weather boats won’t sail ,buyers will shy back and its a pure stop gap ,everyone knows export of calves on borrowed time ,good to get these short term measures but long term hearing nothing of note

Panch18

mahoney_j wrote: »

An afull lot been made of this ,good news none the less but we’re at the mercy of weather ,windy weather boats won’t sail ,buyers will shy back and its a pure stop gap ,everyone knows export of calves on borrowed time ,good to get these short term measures but long term hearing nothing of note

No doubt J with anything you write above

It’s good to hear though that the propaganda spouted by some about people shying away from Irish calves is pure nonsense

Bass Reeves

It all very well to spout that we need to maximize funding from Europe but for the last 15 years it is minimizing there reductions. However IFA still considers that the answer to falling farm incomes lies in EU funding. Over the last 4-5+ years SFP/BPS gas fallen by about 3%/year in value. In the previous years to that it fell over 10%

During the same time we depended on farm efficiencies, and modest product price rises to support farm incomes. Dairy was luck enough that quota's went and this gave dairying an income boost which is now ending.

Teagasc is ending the better farm project because it knows that efficiencies are no long the answer and that agriculture will downsize. With this happening where will the funding come to support farm incomes. It will not come from EU funding. It will not come from national funding. It will have to come from farmers getting a higher produce price whether it is for Beef, milk or Lamb.

The poultry industry had to change it direction 5+ years ago and remove the risk from farmers in the production of eggs and poultry meat. They did this by contracting and by being supplied the chickens and feed and getting a fixed sum/bird produced to cover all other costs.

This is not as easy to replicate in the Beef, Lamb and dairy industries. However in the production of lamb action taken by processors have reduced supply of Mountain store lambs that has made the system profitable. Store lamb producers reduced flock size and or exited the game in the late noughties and this removed the glut of lamb that used to happen in Autumn and Winter. The lowest price now is mid/late summer.

Lads can talk about negotiating positions and not showing your hand but the continual expectation of EU funding as a support mechanism . Over the last few years we saw two strikes within the transport system where unions representing workers were not realistic. The Luas workers looking for a 40%+ pay increase and extra terms and conditions representing another 10-15%. Ianrod Eireann workers refusing to negotiate on a change in structure as the company was collapsing around them. Both taught that Government funding would be supplied to support them. In the LUAS case towards the end when questioned about the realism of there demands that would not be met a union man referred to it as an opening gambit.

So when lads spew on about upwards only convergence and mouthing about a support fund that was supposed to be 100M and because of term's and conditions only 70 million was applied for and maybe take a clawnback 1-2 million in penalties in two years time for me that dose not cut the mustard. If you transfer it across the total beef kill for 12 months it equivilent to about 35-40/head of cattle slaughtered.

wrangler

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It all very well to spout that we need to maximize funding from Europe but for the last 15 years it is minimizing there reductions. However IFA still considers that the answer to falling farm incomes lies in EU funding. Over the last 4-5+ years SFP/BPS gas fallen by about 3%/year in value. In the previous years to that it fell over 10%

During the same time we depended on farm efficiencies, and modest product price rises to support farm incomes. Dairy was luck enough that quota's went and this gave dairying an income boost which is now ending.

Teagasc is ending the better farm project because it knows that efficiencies are no long the answer and that agriculture will downsize. With this happening where will the funding come to support farm incomes. It will not come from EU funding. It will not come from national funding. It will have to come from farmers getting a higher produce price whether it is for Beef, milk or Lamb.

The poultry industry had to change it direction 5+ years ago and remove the risk from farmers in the production of eggs and poultry meat. They did this by contracting and by being supplied the chickens and feed and getting a fixed sum/bird produced to cover all other costs.

This is not as easy to replicate in the Beef, Lamb and dairy industries. However in the production of lamb action taken by processors have reduced supply of Mountain store lambs that has made the system profitable. Store lamb producers reduced flock size and or exited the game in the late noughties and this removed the glut of lamb that used to happen in Autumn and Winter. The lowest price now is mid/late summer.

Lads can talk about negotiating positions and not showing your hand but the continual expectation of EU funding as a support mechanism . Over the last few years we saw two strikes within the transport system where unions representing workers were not realistic. The Luas workers looking for a 40%+ pay increase and extra terms and conditions representing another 10-15%. Ianrod Eireann workers refusing to negotiate on a change in structure as the company was collapsing around them. Both taught that Government funding would be supplied to support them. In the LUAS case towards the end when questioned about the realism of there demands that would not be met a union man referred to it as an opening gambit.

So when lads spew on about upwards only convergence and mouthing about a support fund that was supposed to be 100M and because of term's and conditions only 70 million was applied for and maybe take a clawnback 1-2 million in penalties in two years time for me that dose not cut the mustard. If you transfer it across the total beef kill for 12 months it equivilent to about 35-40/head of cattle slaughtered.

I don't know about IFA , But I see no answer to the crisis in farm incomes, probably because there is none.
If the candidates say that they support convergence, they will lose votes. the joke is of course they will have no say so they can say what they like.
The only good that came out of your protest was that they proved that prices will always depend on the market and despite all the huffing and puffing of Beef Plan the factories won't tolerate messing by suppliers, It's their way or the highway.
Beef production is subsidised now for at least 30+ years so it never stood on its own, it always required lobbying, a high percentage of BPS payments is still going to drystock farmers so it'll always be all to play for. I know guys getting €10000 -€14000 outa BEAM and I don't hear any of them sending it back

Bass Reeves

wrangler wrote: »

I don't know about IFA , But I see no answer to the crisis in farm incomes, probably because there is none.
If the candidates say that they support convergence, they will lose votes. the joke is of course they will have no say so they can say what they like.
The only good that came out of your protest was that they proved that prices will always depend on the market and despite all the huffing and puffing of Beef Plan the factories won't tolerate messing by suppliers, It's their way or the highway.
Beef production is subsidised now for at least 30+ years so it never stood on its own, it always required lobbying, a high percentage of BPS payments is still going to drystock farmers so it'll always be all to play for. I know guys getting €10000 -€14000 outa BEAM and I don't hear any of them sending it back

They would be as rear as hen's teeth. Maximum payment is 100/head on 100 cattle and 40/head on up to 40 suckler cows. So maximum payment is 11600 provided you had 100 suckler cows and slaughtered over 100 cattle in the Beam period. Even if there was no limit on Suckler cow herd numbers for Beam last figures I saw from the department records was 2015 its shows that there was 236 herds with over 100 suckler cows which would have been necessary to draw 14K if no limitations in place. I imagine that this is below 200 now with lads switching to dairying if not lower.

35K farmers applied for Beam and a little over 70 million was approved. Since approval 750 applicants have withdrawn stupid but they have withdrawn. Average payment will be about 2K. Not to be sniffed at but it is only a once off payment. I expect that payments will be clawed back from about 5K farmers as like myself it would be stupid to reduce production by 5% for sub 500 euro.

But all them lads that told you they are getting 14K are lying to you Wranglerr

wrangler

Bass Reeves wrote: »

They would be as rear as hen's teeth. Maximum payment is 100/head on 100 cattle and 40/head on up to 40 suckler cows. So maximum payment is 11600 provided you had 100 suckler cows and slaughtered over 100 cattle in the Beam period. Even if there was no limit on Suckler cow herd numbers for Beam last figures I saw from the department records was 2015 its shows that there was 236 herds with over 100 suckler cows which would have been necessary to draw 14K if no limitations in place. I imagine that this is below 200 now with lads switching to dairying if not lower.

35K farmers applied for Beam and a little over 70 million was approved. Since approval 750 applicants have withdrawn stupid but they have withdrawn. Average payment will be about 2K. Not to be sniffed at but it is only a once off payment. I expect that payments will be clawed back from about 5K farmers as like myself it would be stupid to reduce production by 5% for sub 500 euro.

But all them lads that told you they are getting 14K are lying to you Wranglerr

he wasn't lying, he just said he was getting the max. I just had another senior moment

Bass Reeves

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/category/schemes/

I think I can stand over what I called them

Siamsa Sessions

Bass Reeves wrote: »

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/category/schemes/

I think I can stand over what I called them

I saw 8 different candidates for the various positions over the past few weeks and only 1 of them seemed to move beyond the fist-pumping, fight-them-on-the-beaches stance. The other 7 mostly tried to act like Timmy Ryan, the GAA manager, in D'Unbelievables sketch 20 years ago


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guT76kAPYs0


From going to meetings and talking to neighbours, there's an appetite for change out there. People seem open to new ideas as the current approach to support farming is failing so badly. Yet the future leaders seem to think us welly-wearing gob-daws just want Timmy Ryan.


Whereas factories, retailers, and the Dept have Brian Cody, Jurgen Klopp, and Rassie Erasmus, our boys are determined to jump up and down on the line, shouting "pull harder lads, will ye pull harder"

wrangler

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

I saw 8 different candidates for the various positions over the past few weeks and only 1 of them seemed to move beyond the fist-pumping, fight-them-on-the-beaches stance. The other 7 mostly tried to act like Timmy Ryan, the GAA manager, in D'Unbelievables sketch 20 years ago


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guT76kAPYs0


From going to meetings and talking to neighbours, there's an appetite for change out there. People seem open to new ideas as the current approach to support farming is failing so badly. Yet the future leaders seem to think us welly-wearing gob-daws just want Timmy Ryan.


Whereas factories, retailers, and the Dept have Brian Cody, Jurgen Klopp, and Rassie Erasmus, our boys are determined to jump up and down on the line, shouting "pull harder lads, will ye pull harder"

Like myself these guys have the experience to know whats worth looking for, I asked on here were the Irish dairy farmers not afraid of over producing, I was told that Ireland was such a small insignificant country that it wouldn't even contribute to a glut never mind cause one.
Similarily no matter what Irish farmers do in reducing numbers of cattle they're not going to cause a scarcity that'll effect the market price.
Apparently the Chinese are paying brazil about €3/kg for their beef, and that's only because they're stuck for protein. China was supposed to be our Utopia

Siamsa Sessions

wrangler wrote: »

Apparently the Chinese are paying brazil about €3/kg for their beef, and that's only because they're stuck for protein. China was supposed to be our Utopia

A guy from Bord Bia was asked at a recent farm meeting I attended what was the bottom line when it came to selling Ireland Inc to China, Japan, etc. That is, what do buyers for these new markets ask about - was it quality assurance or was it price?

He seemed embarrassed to be asked the question so bluntly. And he didn't make much of an effort to defend the line about it being all about food safety, QA, etc.

wrangler

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

A guy from Bord Bia was asked at a recent farm meeting I attended what was the bottom line when it came to selling Ireland Inc to China, Japan, etc. That is, what do buyers for these new markets ask about - was it quality assurance or was it price?

He seemed embarrassed to be asked the question so bluntly. And he didn't make much of an effort to defend the line about it being all about food safety, QA, etc.

Of course it's price,
On food safety you'd wonder can you give a substance to an animal that's harmful to humans without killing the animal as well IYKWIM

yosemitesam1

wrangler wrote: »

Like myself these guys have the experience to know whats worth looking for

Is holding onto as much money as possible in the short-term the best tactic for the long-term. Getting more money ringfenced into environmental results based schemes would surely be the best for the majority of farmers in the long run

wrangler

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Is holding onto as much money as possible in the short-term the best tactic for the long-term. Getting more money ringfenced into environmental results based schemes would surely be the best for the majority of farmers in the long run

I don't agree with environmental schemes, results based or not. I don't think there's enough evidence of anyone taking the damage to the environment serious, government or public.
Environment schemes are a joke at the moment and only a dole for farmers same as the BPS so why change it. Either will do to get money to farmers

Bass Reeves

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Is holding onto as much money as possible in the short-term the best tactic for the long-term. Getting more money ringfenced into environmental results based schemes would surely be the best for the majority of farmers in the long run

I have no problem with any representive organisation taking a position on anything. What I do have is where that organisation trles to dress up there policy as something else. IFA would seem to be against convergence. That is fair enough if you come out and day that. Coming along with an statement of upward only convergence is a way of being unwilling to discuss the issue within the organisation. It gives people paying subscription and levies an opinion that IFA is representing them when it is not. It means that all 3 candidates would seem to be against convergence.

IFA has very actively represented a certain cohort of farmer's but there is a large number now that see that they are not representing there interests. This is why thousands have walked away and stopped paying leavies. This number is increasing all the time.

wrangler

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I have no problem with any representive organisation taking a position on anything. What I do have is where that organisation trles to dress up there policy as something else. IFA would seem to be against convergence. That is fair enough if you come out and day that. Coming along with an statement of upward only convergence is a way of being unwilling to discuss the issue within the organisation. It gives people paying subscription and levies an opinion that IFA is representing them when it is not. It means that all 3 candidates would seem to be against convergence.

IFA has very actively represented a certain cohort of farmer's but there is a large number now that see that they are not representing there interests. This is why thousands have walked away and stopped paying leavies. This number is increasing all the time.

How do you explain corley then with a large BPS that goes off and leads a cluster**** against the IFA that's protecting his payments, he could afford to make a f...up of his year WITHOUT ANY FEARS or maybe he got in his cattle before the gates were blocked like some BP GUYS
Very easy to see the guys spewing against IFA and then look up their payments, you couldn't make it up. again sad...... 50000 bps is some compensation for selling 100 cattle

Bass Reeves

wrangler wrote: »

How do you explain corley then with a large BPS that goes off and leads a cluster**** against the IFA that's protecting his payments, he could afford to make a f...up of his year WITHOUT ANY FEARS or maybe he got in his cattle before the gates were blocked like some BP GUYS
Very easy to see the guys spewing against IFA and then look up their payments, you couldn't make it up. again sad...... 50000 bps is some compensation for selling 100 cattle

It was not like IFA guys were not spewing against BP from the start

wrangler

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It was not like IFA guys were not spewing against BP from the start

If they think they can give it, they better be prepared to take it, especially now that they have messed up.

Base price

wrangler wrote: »

I don't agree with environmental schemes, results based or not. I don't think there's enough evidence of anyone taking the damage to the environment serious, government or public.
Environment schemes are a joke at the moment and only a dole for farmers same as the BPS so why change it. Either will do to get money to farmers

Whether you agree with environmental schemes or not I think that they are the way forward. Farming is getting hammered by the media at the moment and public perception is like a pendulum that can swing both ways. It is imperative that we keep the public (consumers) on our side if we want to continue receiving their tax dollars, at the end of the day they are our paymasters and we have to be seen to be doing our bit for the environment.

I have no problem with environmental schemes as by entering GLAS we recouped some of the loss of our SFP. I hope the future schemes are more focused on biodiversity within each geographical region rather than the blanket scheme that GLAS was.

Grueller

So then, calves next spring?

DukeCaboom

There's an accountant here telling his dairy clients to just get rid of the calf no matter what at 3/4 days old.
Absolute brainless stuff really and he'd be the one tellling them to buy a tractor in October then to keep down the tax bill.
If you walk into the marts in the spring the big problem is young calves.
Dairy farmers can surly wear the cost of 2 or 3 weeks feeding!
Calves forty days old are so scare in spring sales nowadays they are making plenty.

jaymla627

Grueller wrote: »

So then, calves next spring?

She'll be right jack, seems to be the attitude out their at the minute, with the new bord bia rules been brought-in lads are going to have to invest in more housing and labour to keep the job right, even if its loss making

JeffKenna

DukeCaboom wrote: »

There's an accountant here telling his dairy clients to just get rid of the calf no matter what at 3/4 days old.
Absolute brainless stuff really and he'd be the one tellling them to buy a tractor in October then to keep down the tax bill.
If you walk into the marts in the spring the big problem is young calves.
Dairy farmers can surly wear the cost of 2 or 3 weeks feeding!
Calves forty days old are so scare in spring sales nowadays they are making plenty.

That's the problem with accountants, they're brainless.

DukeCaboom

JeffKenna wrote: »

That's the problem with accountants, they're brainless.

When asked about a permit.... Just do it when they are 10days old and take a chance.

Base price

Grueller wrote: »

So then, calves next spring?

IMO it will be the same as every other year. Good FR bull calves will sell to farmers or for export. If the weather gets windy and the calf lorries cannot sail then farmers will have to hold onto them a little longer and take a hit on prices.

My main concern is the upsurge of so called animal right activists - you'd swear us farmers don't have the welfare of our animals as paramount in our operations.

Bass Reeves

Base price wrote: »

IMO it will be the same as every other year. Good FR bull calves will sell to farmers or for export. If the weather gets windy and the calf lorries cannot sail then farmers will have to hold onto them a little longer and take a hit on prices.

My main concern is the upsurge of so called animal right activists - you'd swear us farmers don't have the welfare of our animals as paramount in our operations.

A lot will depend on Beef prices this winter. If we go through another winter of sub 4/kg beef price for now until after Christmas. it will leave confidance in beef very low. Remember we produce about 1.5 million calves. In general exporters only want Fr type calves there is expected to be a reduction in these next spring due to the use of more beef bulls.

If beef prices remain low calf to store men may well buy less calves. A 10% drop in Irish demand would need we need to export over 100K extra calves. I am not totally convinced by the propganda from Creeds visit to the Netherlands.Now I know they have reduced cow numbers out there but will this lift demand enough if local demand drops.

IMO it all depends on the confidence of Irish calf buyers not ferry sailings

Base price

Bass Reeves wrote: »

A lot will depend on Beef prices this winter. If we go through another winter of sub 4/kg beef price for now until after Christmas. it will leave confidance in beef very low. Remember we produce about 1.5 million calves. In general exporters only want Fr type calves there is expected to be a reduction in these next spring due to the use of more beef bulls.

If beef prices remain low calf to store men may well buy less calves. A 10% drop in Irish demand would need we need to export over 100K extra calves. I am not totally convinced by the propganda from Creeds visit to the Netherlands.Now I know they have reduced cow numbers out there but will this lift demand enough if local demand drops.

IMO it all depends on the confidence of Irish calf buyers not ferry sailings

Bass I'm not trying to be smart but imo you don't know about calf exports. Calf exporters buy cheap when numbers are on the ground i.e. lots of FR bull calves during Spring, that's how they make their profit. When numbers become scarce they will accept lesser quality FRx for next or nothing and pay good enough money for AAx, HEx, BBx and other continental breeds.

As you previously posted, any upset with live calf shipping especially if the ferry operators refuse to carry livestock lorries will cause a massive problem.

Bass Reeves

Base price wrote: »

Bass I'm not trying to be smart but imo you don't know about calf exports. Calf exporters buy cheap when numbers are on the ground i.e. lots of FR bull calves during Spring, that's how they make their profit. When numbers become scarce they will accept lesser quality FRx for next or nothing and pay good enough money for AAx, HEx, BBx and other continental breeds.

As you previously posted, any upset with live calf shipping especially if the ferry operators refuse to carry livestock lorries will cause a massive problem.

I think a lot of people underestimate the effect of what could happen if Irish calf buyers decide to down size. It has happened before. Before the **** hits the fan the lads in the know duck. Teagasc has started to duck. Like I said it all depends on beef prices. If they stay below 4K all bets are off IMO China might save us this year.

Yes they take BBX and other continental calves. Most HE and AA go to Spain AFAIK. They may decide to take them but the issue with them for veal is there growth rate and marbling to a certain extent. However I am not confident that if Irish farmer demand drops that exports will fill the complete gab.

Base price

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think a lot of people underestimate the effect of what could happen if Irish calf buyers decide to down size. It has happened before. Before the **** hits the fan the lads in the know duck. Teagasc has started to duck. Like I said it all depends on beef prices. If they stay below 4K all bets are off IMO China might save us this year.

Yes they take BBX and other continental calves. Most HE and AA go to Spain AFAIK. They may decide to take them but the issue with them for veal is there growth rate and marbling to a certain extent. However I am not confident that if Irish farmer demand drops that exports will fill the complete gab.

When did it happen before? Cause I don't have any memory other than late 1990's and into the 2000's during the BSE crisis.

Under EU legislation Spanish, Dutch, French, (Belgian) and other EU buyers have access to DAFM records when the calves tags/details are uploaded prior to shipping ex Ireland. AFAIK calf buyers are more than well aware of the AI usage of bulls used across the dairy herd.

IMO your waffling

wrangler

Base price wrote: »

When did it happen before? Cause I don't have any memory other than late 1990's and into the 2000's during the BSE crisis.

Under EU legislation Spanish, Dutch, French, (Belgian) and other EU buyers have access to DAFM records when the calves tags/details are uploaded prior to shipping ex Ireland. AFAIK calf buyers are more than well aware of the AI usage of bulls used across the dairy herd.

IMO your waffling

WOW.... even I have never been accused of that by you