Spring 2020..... 1.5m Dairy calves.... discuss.

Base price

wrangler wrote: »

WOW.... even I have never been accused of that by you

Jeez, I must have slipped up during our many heated and contentious debates.

In fairness to Bass, he knows his figures and is prepared to publish them for his part time livestock operation which is beneficial to all of us.

Bass Reeves

Base price wrote: »

When did it happen before? Cause I don't have any memory other than late 1990's and into the 2000's during the BSE crisis.

Under EU legislation Spanish, Dutch, French, (Belgian) and other EU buyers have access to DAFM records when the calves tags/details are uploaded prior to shipping ex Ireland. AFAIK calf buyers are more than well aware of the AI usage of bulls used across the dairy herd.

IMO your waffling

Late 70's calves could not be given away. Lads and ladies forget when it a bit beyond there generation.

Like I said it all depends on the calf to store man's confidence and if he decides to down size.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Late 70's calves could not be given away. Lads and ladies forget when it a bit beyond there generation.

Like I said it all depends on the calf to store man's confidence and if he decides to down size.

Calves can always be given away:D

1974, the price of calves were so low that myself and my father came back from the mart with more calves than we went in to sell. The prices of stores were back as well but finishing cattle had only a small drop.

My farming career started with those calves that some farmers refused to feed because they resented giving them the milk to feed when they could sell it instead. I made a large profit on those calves sold as stores the following year.

Sometimes you have to run against the herd.

Bass Reeves

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

Calves can always be given away:D

1974, the price of calves were so low that myself and my father came back from the mart with more calves than we went in to sell. The prices of stores were back as well but finishing cattle had only a small drop.

My farming career started with those calves that some farmers refused to feed because they resented giving them the milk to feed when they could sell it instead. I made a large profit on those calves sold as stores the following year.

Sometimes you have to run against the herd.

I agree entirely but it still happened I taught it was later in the 70's but there you go

K.G.

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

Calves can always be given away:D

1974, the price of calves were so low that myself and my father came back from the mart with more calves than we went in to sell. The prices of stores were back as well but finishing cattle had only a small drop.

My farming career started with those calves that some farmers refused to feed because they resented giving them the milk to feed when they could sell it instead. I made a large profit on those calves sold as stores the following year.

Sometimes you have to run against the herd.

Theres legends in every parish about land bought with those calves.

GrasstoMilk

https://www.beefcentral.com/news/african-swine-fever-drives-global-protein-shortage-to-a-critical-level-in-2020/#.Xdmbu-xUIV8.facebook

ruwithme

GrasstoMilk wrote: »

https://www.beefcentral.com/news/african-swine-fever-drives-global-protein-shortage-to-a-critical-level-in-2020/#.Xdmbu-xUIV8.facebook

That explains this year's weanlings prices then so.

K.G.

ruwithme wrote: »

That explains this year's weanlings prices then so.

By the look of things we should be holding on to our calves

jaymla627

K.G. wrote: »

By the look of things we should be holding on to our calves

Thy Americans will be scrambling for beef after the new year with New Zealand and Australia diverting their sales towards China, upshot for milk is if beef prices spike alot of marginal cows will be culled worldwide to cash in on high beef prices, if they dont get a vaccine to stop swine flu, your spot-on about keeping calves, not even Larry will be able to hold back prices if he doesn't raise them exporters will ship them out of the country if their value

wrangler

jaymla627 wrote: »

Thy Americans will be scrambling for beef after the new year with New Zealand and Australia diverting their sales towards China, upshot for milk is if beef prices spike alot of marginal cows will be culled worldwide to cash in on high beef prices, if they dont get a vaccine to stop swine flu, your spot-on about keeping calves, not even Larry will be able to hold back prices if he doesn't raise them exporters will ship them out of the country if their value

About time the market turned, long enough in the doldrums now,
I beginning to regret now that I'm commited to a ten year lease

jaymla627

wrangler wrote: »

About time the market turned, long enough in the doldrums now,
I beginning to regret now that I'm commited to a ten year lease

The perfect storm has happened, the more you read into the attempts of scientists trying to create a vaccine for African swine flu the more you realise their years away from doing it, by summer 2020 Irish beef prices could be at record levels, once free market forces are in play.

Mod note: Point of Information. The disease is African Swine Fever, ASF. I make the distinction because Swine Flu is a different virus and has human health implications which ASF does not have.

Dinzee Conlee

wrangler wrote: »

About time the market turned, long enough in the doldrums now,
I beginning to regret now that I'm commited to a ten year lease

Imagine - instead of getting a set amount every year for doing nothing, you could work hard for what will probably still be poor wages in comparison to other sectors...

I’m sure you’ll get over it Wangler...

wrangler

Dinzee Conlee wrote: »

Imagine - instead of getting a set amount every year for doing nothing, you could work hard for what will probably still be poor wages in comparison to other sectors...

I’m sure you’ll get over it Wangler...

Three weeks ago I was worrying that the lease would get to ten years.
You really never know what's around the corner

Bass Reeves

They will just switch to chickens meat. to make up at least 50-80% of the difference.

Danzy

Bass Reeves wrote: »

They will just switch to chickens meat. to make up at least 50-80% of the difference.

19 million tonne meat protein shortage.
If they go 80% to chicken to replace it, that means they'll take every ounce of Beef that Brazil exports for the other 20%.

If they go half chicken and the rest beef, that is the entire export of the top 10 countries, all EU, Brazil, Indian, Oz, Canadian, US, Argentina and then some.

It's a big help at the least.

China could become the leading beef destination in the world and still not have beef as a common dish

.

farawaygrass

I 99% had my mind made up not to let out the bull next spring, why are ye tempting me back??

jaymla627

Bass Reeves wrote: »

They will just switch to chickens meat. to make up at least 50-80% of the difference.

America imported over a million tons of beef last year with Australia/new zealand the top two suppliers, China is swallowing up this supply, that alone will create a huge market in itself

Keepgrowing

The entire calf situation this coming spring will revolve around beef price and sentiment. Asia and China in particular are facing a 10m tonne deficit in protein. To contextualise this the total consumed in EU is 8m tonnes.

That said a processing capability must remain in the republic for “un viable” calves. I define and in viable calf as one nobody will buy and they’re not breed specific.

c200k calved were exported this year. There’s a much larger appetite for dairy bred calves than some would want us to believe, the lairage facilities are also in place. The weak link in all this is the ferry companies, if they meet any resistance/protest it will be stopped over night. If the rules around how many hours a calf can travel are reduced by even 2 it’s over.

Everything we do around calves will be scrutinised to the n’th degree so take care of who you deal with and how you deal with your calves.

We’re lucky to have facilities in place to keep calves for a longer period than heretofore so we will read the situation on the ground as it develops.

We need to be aware of the threats for inside our industry just as much as the outside forces. There will be an expose timed to do maximum damage and the secret then is to keep calm, speak factually and call out the very low percentage of bad operations that bring our industry into dis repute.

As a foot note the Bord Bia dictatorial disallows on farm slaughter of healthy calves and rightly so, there’s no need as we already have a processing facility who will process this meat into a saleable product.

Jjameson

Danzy wrote: »

19 million tonne meat protein shortage.
If they go 80% to chicken to replace it, that means they'll take every ounce of Beef that Brazil exports for the other 20%.

If they go half chicken and the rest beef, that is the entire export of the top 10 countries, all EU, Brazil, Indian, Oz, Canadian, US, Argentina and then some.

It's a big help at the least.

China could become the leading beef destination in the world and still not have beef as a common dish

.

The increased tonnage of South American beef for the Chinese market is always going to be predominantly low value cuts and offal. Where’s Brazil going to target sale of the primal cuts.?

The same place we do. Europe. So along with the main cheap beef producing nations we have outlet for red offal and beef in China but at the same price base. And a political establishment prepared to throw us under a German motor car via mercouser. 99000 tonnes of fillet,sirloin sriploin steak Equate to a lot of cattle compared to a balance of al, cuts.
For meaningful price here we need a European protein deficit be it swine, equine or bovine. I darent say what I’m thinking but it is inevitable!

yosemitesam1

Jjameson wrote: »

The increased tonnage of South American beef for the Chinese market is always going to be predominantly low value cuts and offal. Where’s Brazil going to target sale of the primal cuts.?

The same place we do. Europe. So along with the main cheap beef producing nations we have outlet for red offal and beef in China but at the same price base. And a political establishment prepared to throw us under a German motor car via mercouser. 99000 tonnes of fillet,sirloin sriploin steak Equate to a lot of cattle compared to a balance of al, cuts.
For meaningful price here we need a European protein deficit be it swine, equine or bovine. I darent say what I’m thinking but it is inevitable!

Bord via were estimating 30,000t being sent there at a value of €120 million. Unlikely anyone will be getting rich off of them.

Jjameson

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Bord via were estimating 30,000t being sent there at a value of €120 million. Unlikely anyone will be getting rich off of them.

It’s good news but the way it was being promoted as a saviour from no deal brexit and not questioned is laughable.

jaymla627

Jjameson wrote: »

The increased tonnage of South American beef for the Chinese market is always going to be predominantly low value cuts and offal. Where’s Brazil going to target sale of the primal cuts.?

The same place we do. Europe. So along with the main cheap beef producing nations we have outlet for red offal and beef in China but at the same price base. And a political establishment prepared to throw us under a German motor car via mercouser. 99000 tonnes of fillet,sirloin sriploin steak Equate to a lot of cattle compared to a balance of al, cuts.
For meaningful price here we need a European protein deficit be it swine, equine or bovine. I darent say what I’m thinking but it is inevitable!

Their taking whole carcasses now from Brazil/Argentina, the simply law of supply and demand will kick in shortly, their has been a massive cull in beef herds worldwide in 2019 due to weather events, which meant a temporary inflated supply that screwed prices for 2019, the whole balance will turn on its head into next year, current pig factory prices in China are heading north of 6 euro a kilo

mahoney_j

Next year/year and a half could see record prices forcbeef and milk ,the situation especially in Asia /China is escalating quickly ,3 calls from exporters in last few weeks wanting to secure calves for next spring and from a few meetings I’ve been at in last few weeks there is a real sense of positivity brewing under the surface

yosemitesam1

jaymla627 wrote: »

Their taking whole carcasses now from Brazil/Argentina, the simply law of supply and demand will kick in shortly, their has been a massive cull in beef herds worldwide in 2019 due to weather events, which meant a temporary inflated supply that screwed prices for 2019, the whole balance will turn on its head into next year, current pig factory prices in China are heading north of 6 euro a kilo

The average Chinese person living in a big city is just surviving. They haven't lots of disposable income to divert to buying meat

jimmy G M

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The average Chinese person living in a big city is just surviving. They haven't lots of disposable income to divert to buying meat

Did you read the article that Grass to Milk posted a few hours ago? .. it addresses a number of queries lads have raised in a few posts..... the Chinese middle class is huge.... they are moving away from chicken and pork to beef as eating chicken and pork is associated with the lower classes....

yosemitesam1

jimmy G M wrote: »

Did you read the article that Grass to Milk posted a few hours ago? .. it addresses a number of queries lads have raised in a few posts..... the Chinese middle class is huge.... they are moving away from chicken and pork to beef as eating chicken and pork is associated with the lower classes....

There will be a limit as to how high price will go. Doubt we'll see anything exceptional here.

awaywithyou

while there is huge optimism for the price of beef and milk for next year and looks like the bull calf situation wont b as bad becasue of China and whats going on there.... tis a real shame that we have to depend on someone elses misfortune in order to make a few quid from this farming lark....

awaywithyou

i wonder what the lads who have converted from beef and sheep make of all this news about demand from China.... wonder are they anyway sorry? see on waikato facebook page they putting in 50unit rotary in westmeath for a guy thats converting... at a time when beef price loooks like it will rocket and lamb demand is well up...

wrangler

awaywithyou wrote: »

i wonder what the lads who have converted from beef and sheep make of all this news about demand from China.... wonder are they anyway sorry? see on waikato facebook page they putting in 50unit rotary in westmeath for a guy thats converting... at a time when beef price loooks like it will rocket and lamb demand is well up...

He's doing 400 TOPLESS cubicles as well
Another big sheep flock gone

Danzy

Jjameson wrote: »

The increased tonnage of South American beef for the Chinese market is always going to be predominantly low value cuts and offal. Where’s Brazil going to target sale of the primal cuts.?

The same place we do. Europe. So along with the main cheap beef producing nations we have outlet for red offal and beef in China but at the same price base. And a political establishment prepared to throw us under a German motor car via mercouser. 99000 tonnes of fillet,sirloin sriploin steak Equate to a lot of cattle compared to a balance of al, cuts.
For meaningful price here we need a European protein deficit be it swine, equine or bovine. I darent say what I’m thinking but it is inevitable!

If they take everything sold from South America, it'll go half way to meeting their protein deficit.

Beef isn't going to fill the gap alone, Brazilian retail beef was already up 30% due to increased Chinese demand, this Will build further.

All this crisis has to do is eliminate the excess globally.

Globally all of Europe is only a bit player but our main market, always will be.

If it raises the base elsewhere, it'll rise here.

Interestingly enough Hong Kong has a per capita consumption of 100lbs of beef a year.

If mainland China approached A fraction of that then they will be by far the dominant market globally.

They were heading there anyway, this just speeds it up.
A