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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

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As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Danzy

prawnsambo wrote: »

There is also the danger of a no deal exit if an election is called and Johnson changes the date to after the new extension end date. That's what Labour are afraid of.

A no Deal Brexit would not even receive a majority in the ERG wing if the Tories, never mind the party overall or the commons. There is no reason to even imagine Johnson would allow it.

Corbyn and Starmer know that.

They are frightened of the result leaving them on the sideline wirh a smaller party and Johnson walking his deal through.

Tea Shock

prawnsambo wrote: »

And as an illustration, I saw a tweet the other day stating that Canada had pretty much decided that there wa no point in entering a FTA with the UK as the UK's zero-tariff schedule gave them all they needed anyway.

Many people have pointed out the absurdity of their stance for a long time - since even before the 2016 vote

For example, Pascal Lamy, former Director General of WTO - again, this was before the 2016 vote!

Joe_ Public

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU should give them an extension til the end of 2020, the whole transition period, with the same Leave Any Time, Please, Just Leave clause.

We all know they'll still be arguing in a years time whether they get into the Transition period or not, and will still be threatening themselves with No Deal, might as well postpone the cliff edge until then and just have one big cliff.

Common sense, of course, but how much place does that have in any brexit debate? What'd happen is it would go back to house, mps would argue in favour while the other side would scream more angry accusations of "dither and delay" and quite possibly they would end up rejecting it, leaving them god knows where.

Zubeneschamali

Russman wrote: »

I think they're definitely going to need a longer or another extension come January, especially if the election isn't held until mid Jan

The EU should give them an extension til the end of 2020, the whole transition period, with the same Leave Any Time, Please, Just Leave clause.

We all know they'll still be arguing in a years time whether they get into the Transition period or not, and will still be threatening themselves with No Deal, might as well postpone the cliff edge until then and just have one big cliff.

Russman

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. It's a knotty problem. I can't see a way to nullify it. Earliest election date is now December 10th (I think). And there's an issue with holding it later than that before Christmas as the polling stations (in schools) won't be available because of school exams. Which pushes it into the new year. And then it gets really squeaky.

Absolutely. Does the HoC stop sitting once an election is called ? Presumably if an election is called shortly the house won't have time to scrutinise and pass the required legislation for the WA/WAB, or will it ?
I think they're definitely going to need a longer or another extension come January, especially if the election isn't held until mid Jan - whatever new government is returned will need the time.

Its all a bit mad Ted !

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That's pretty much what deliberately leaving talks on the Future Relationship during the Transition Period would be like: disrupt trade by jumping to WTO rules so that you can start the same negotiation for a Free Trade Deal from a weaker position and under enormously more pressure to get the deal done. Mad stuff.

And as an illustration, I saw a tweet the other day stating that Canada had pretty much decided that there wa no point in entering a FTA with the UK as the UK's zero-tariff schedule gave them all they needed anyway.

Zubeneschamali

Akrasia wrote: »

if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

Imagine you are trading in your car for a new one, and the deal is taking more time than you allowed for it (even though everyone warned you it would). So you go out to your current car and break a few windows.

That'll show the salesman you mean business!

That's pretty much what deliberately leaving talks on the Future Relationship during the Transition Period would be like: disrupt trade by jumping to WTO rules so that you can start the same negotiation for a Free Trade Deal from a weaker position and under enormously more pressure to get the deal done. Mad stuff.

prawnsambo

Russman wrote: »

So would that mean that, in theory, no matter what extension is given, that danger still exists and at some point Labour are going to have to bite the bullet and agree to an election ?
They could obviously string it out until the FTPA kicks in, but that would be too damaging for them.

Yeah. It's a knotty problem. I can't see a way to nullify it. Earliest election date is now December 10th (I think). And there's an issue with holding it later than that before Christmas as the polling stations (in schools) won't be available because of school exams. Which pushes it into the new year. And then it gets really squeaky.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

Nicola Sturgeon was on TV last week saying the deal was a complete disaster for Scotland, with virtually no positives.

She has to say that, but the whole mess is a huge boost for the SNP. After Independence they should give Cameron, May and Johnson medals.

Russman

prawnsambo wrote: »

There is also the danger of a no deal exit if an election is called and Johnson changes the date to after the new extension end date. That's what Labour are afraid of.

So would that mean that, in theory, no matter what extension is given, that danger still exists and at some point Labour are going to have to bite the bullet and agree to an election ?
They could obviously string it out until the FTPA kicks in, but that would be too damaging for them.

prawnsambo

Akrasia wrote: »

Once the WAB passes No deal becomes the default when they inevitably fail to get a FTA at the end of 2020 and if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

There is also the danger of a no deal exit if an election is called and Johnson changes the date to after the new extension end date. That's what Labour are afraid of.

Professor Genius

Akrasia wrote: »

Once the WAB passes No deal becomes the default when they inevitably fail to get a FTA at the end of 2020 and if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

Unlikely Brexit party will have any seats. If they run they will create more opportunities for Lib or Lab seat wins from Con

Akrasia

marno21 wrote: »

Surely if no deal is ruled out pre-election, a post election Tory majority can just repeal the relevant legislation and plough the UK into the abyss?

Once the WAB passes No deal becomes the default when they inevitably fail to get a FTA at the end of 2020 and if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

Joe_ Public

marno21 wrote: »

Surely if no deal is ruled out pre-election, a post election Tory majority can just repeal the relevant legislation and plough the UK into the abyss?

I dont think you can rule out no deal, since it depends on continued willingness of EU to grant extensions. If they stood on no deal manifesto, won a majority on that basis, then they would be free to pull plug at their leisure. Otherwise i think they would have problems, starting with their own party.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

One thing I haven't seen much commentary on is Scotland's attitude to BJ's deal. If it goes through, it will drive the SNP nuts since they will look at how NI has a new status due to the new customs arrangements while they will be exiting fully from the EU. Surely there will be much unrest over this?

Nicola Sturgeon was on TV last week saying the deal was a complete disaster for Scotland, with virtually no positives.

[Deleted User]

One thing I haven't seen much commentary on is Scotland's attitude to BJ's deal. If it goes through, it will drive the SNP nuts since they will look at how NI has a new status due to the new customs arrangements while they will be exiting fully from the EU. Surely there will be much unrest over this?

marno21

Surely if no deal is ruled out pre-election, a post election Tory majority can just repeal the relevant legislation and plough the UK into the abyss?

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think cummings is the one desperate for quick election on a people v parliament ticket so he can wallow in a gloves off dirty campaign.

He is desperate for it because it's a great opportunity for his side to cement power.

The longer it goes on the better it may be as people get frustrated.

Danzy

listermint wrote: »

But how can he get the election?

Corbyn said to be backing an election if No Deal Brexit is ruled out, which isn't asking much as so few MPs want, a dozen?

His shadow cabinet want a 2nd referendum as part of it which is another joke, they want to avoid an election, understandably given the polling, they are looking tougher now than under Foot, according to the Guardian.

Real bind for the opposition there, if they don't want the deal, won't allow an election, people will hammer them the longer it goes on.

Doesn't matter what you think of Brexit, they are stuck in the ultimate gonzo political position at the moment.

GM228

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It might even come to a point that they will simply say the only way is a binding referendum.

That will take six months alone to agree wording and options

The UK does not do binding referendums.

It could legislate that a referendum will be binding, but, then again it could revoke/amend that legislation, as such the UK can never have a truly binding referendum.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

If it was a hung parliament again, it would send the Brexit process right back to square one. It would make it virtually impossible to get any WA through.

If Labour did reasonably ok, you might get a situation where the pressure came on lib dems to back corbyn for pm so to get referendum in place. With snp, green and other support. What odds on all that though? Plus, it would require yet another extension. No easy way out!

Seth Brundle

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes, quite likely he just picked up the trailer to take to the industrial estate, the real question is how long did it take to get from Bulgaria to Zeebrugge.

mod note: let's leave the discussion on the truck tragedy to the threads on it please

jimmycrackcorm

Strazdas wrote: »

If it was a hung parliament again, it would send the Brexit process right back to square one. It would make it virtually impossible to get any WA through.

It might even come to a point that they will simply say the only way is a binding referendum.

That will take six months alone to agree wording and options

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Lib Dems will do decent i'd think, probably hurt labour while damage BP could do to tories is considerable. So volatile its really hard to be certain. If you get some effective alliances working on either side, could have a real bearing.

If it was a hung parliament again, it would send the Brexit process right back to square one. It would make it virtually impossible to get any WA through.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

Indeed, but many think it will be a gamble. Two unknowns are how the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party will fare and how much damage they can do to Con and Lab.

Lib Dems will do decent i'd think, probably hurt labour while damage BP could do to tories is considerable. So volatile its really hard to be certain. If you get some effective alliances working on either side, could have a real bearing.

LeinsterDub

listermint wrote: »

But how can he get the election?

With Labour on board he'd get the 2/3 required. But according the rumours Labour aren't on board and more concerning from his pov is that is party isn't even on board

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think cummings is the one desperate for quick election on a people v parliament ticket so he can wallow in a gloves off dirty campaign.

Indeed, but many think it will be a gamble. Two unknowns are how the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party will fare and how much damage they can do to Con and Lab.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

Two pollsters on Newsnight saying a GE would be risky for Johnson, as the electorate are so volatile at the moment and nobody can be sure what way the votes for the four main English parties will split.

I think cummings is the one desperate for quick election on a people v parliament ticket so he can wallow in a gloves off dirty campaign.

Joe_ Public

listermint wrote: »

But how can he get the election?

While its in labours interests to keep him stewing for as long as possible i do wonder if this waiting for no deal line is going to wear thin very soon. If extension is settled this week for instance, how can labour seriously keep refusing it?

Strazdas

Two pollsters on Newsnight saying a GE would be risky for Johnson, as the electorate are so volatile at the moment and nobody can be sure what way the votes for the four main English parties will split.