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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

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As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Joe_ Public

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU should give them an extension til the end of 2020, the whole transition period, with the same Leave Any Time, Please, Just Leave clause.

We all know they'll still be arguing in a years time whether they get into the Transition period or not, and will still be threatening themselves with No Deal, might as well postpone the cliff edge until then and just have one big cliff.

Common sense, of course, but how much place does that have in any brexit debate? What'd happen is it would go back to house, mps would argue in favour while the other side would scream more angry accusations of "dither and delay" and quite possibly they would end up rejecting it, leaving them god knows where.

Tea Shock

prawnsambo wrote: »

And as an illustration, I saw a tweet the other day stating that Canada had pretty much decided that there wa no point in entering a FTA with the UK as the UK's zero-tariff schedule gave them all they needed anyway.

Many people have pointed out the absurdity of their stance for a long time - since even before the 2016 vote

For example, Pascal Lamy, former Director General of WTO - again, this was before the 2016 vote!

Danzy

prawnsambo wrote: »

There is also the danger of a no deal exit if an election is called and Johnson changes the date to after the new extension end date. That's what Labour are afraid of.

A no Deal Brexit would not even receive a majority in the ERG wing if the Tories, never mind the party overall or the commons. There is no reason to even imagine Johnson would allow it.

Corbyn and Starmer know that.

They are frightened of the result leaving them on the sideline wirh a smaller party and Johnson walking his deal through.

Joe_ Public

Alastair Burt on sky just now: "I think there should be a short extension, get the brexit deal done and then have a GE. That would be the most advantageous thing for the country."

That's a slip of the tongue, isnt it? When he said country, what he really meant to say was the conservative party.

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Alastair Burt on sky just now: "I think there should be a short extension, get the brexit deal done and then have a GE. That would be the most advantageous thing for the country."

That's a slip of the tongue, isnt it? When he said country, what he really meant to say was the conservative party.

The public will agree, the deal passed gives stability, ends uncertainty, allows movement on other issues.

The ideal situation for Brussels and Dublin is to have the deal passed as soon as possible.

Zubeneschamali

Danzy wrote: »

A no Deal Brexit would not even receive a majority in the ERG wing if the Tories, never mind the party overall or the commons. There is no reason to even imagine Johnson would allow it.

Allow it? What exactly is he going to do about it if the EU say No to his extension request?

The only way to avoid it at this stage is to revoke A50.

Which shows how dangerous the whole "Keep No Deal on the table as a bluff" policy has been.

[Deleted User]

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU should give them an extension til the end of 2020, the whole transition period, with the same Leave Any Time, Please, Just Leave clause.

We all know they'll still be arguing in a years time whether they get into the Transition period or not, and will still be threatening themselves with No Deal, might as well postpone the cliff edge until then and just have one big cliff.

I haven't thought about this at all but I've seen it mooted. Just give them an endless extension where if they go past certain dates, they have to fulfil whatever EU political things are needed at that point, with a notice period once they finally do leave.

The blame has been well and truly shifted. Let them argue amongst themselves and let the EU and Ireland get on with political issues that have been neglected.

Zubeneschamali

Danzy wrote: »

The ideal situation for Brussels and Dublin is to have the deal passed as soon as possible.

No, a referendum followed by Revoke and Remain is best for everyone.

But obviously the EU and Ireland can't say that too loudly.

The WA is better than No Deal, but it is still bad all round - worse for the UK than for us, but a 10 year recession in a major trading partner is not going to improve our economy, and No Deal tariffs and a possible recession here is still on the cards beginning January 2021 even if the WA is ratified now.

LeinsterDub

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, a referendum followed by Revoke and Remain is best for everyone.

But obviously the EU and Ireland can't say that too loudly.

The WA is better than No Deal, but it is still bad all round - worse for the UK than for us, but a 10 year recession in a major trading partner is not going to improve our economy, and No Deal tariffs and a possible recession here is still on the cards beginning January 2021 even if the WA is ratified now.

The EU have been saying that extremely loudly

Jean Claude Juncker wrote:

I am happy about the deal but I am sad about Brexit

jimmycrackcorm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, a referendum followed by Revoke and Remain is best for everyone.

It's actually not because the car is out of the bag for brexiteers. Unless they actually get to experience real brexit and the actual consequences, there will always be division in British society and it would enivitably come back.

At the core of brexit is a feeling of English superiority. Immigrants come here but we're ex-pats abroad. So they really do need a period out in the wilderness to get over that.

For us, as long as the NI conundrum is solved, it's the best we can hope for.

Zubeneschamali

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's actually not because the car is out of the bag for brexiteers. Unless they actually get to experience real brexit and the actual consequences, there will always be division in British society and it would enivitably come back.

Yes, but that is a problem for the UK, not for Ireland or the EU.

For us, the problem is not division and political chaos in the UK, it is Brexit itself. If that never happens and the chaos goes on forever, we don't really care.

Zubeneschamali

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The EU have been saying that extremely loudly

Well, no, they haven't. They have said quietly that they regret Brexit, but are always careful to say it is up to the UK to decide.

They could get tough, and say no more extensions, revoke A50 or leave with No Deal. They could say extension, but only if you hold a referendum with Remain on the ballot.

They could loudly denounce the Tories continuing nonsense, and lay out a timetable for exactly what is needed, week by week, for any extension with No Deal expulsion for non-compliance.

But they are the nice, cuddly EU and will not do any of those things. Mind you, once the UK are out and are looking for a Free Trade Deal, the gloves will be off and the cuddly EU will be nowhere to be seen.

farmchoice

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's actually not because the car is out of the bag for brexiteers. Unless they actually get to experience real brexit and the actual consequences, there will always be division in British society and it would enivitably come back.

At the core of brexit is a feeling of English superiority. Immigrants come here but we're ex-pats abroad. So they really do need a period out in the wilderness to get over that.

For us, as long as the NI conundrum is solved, it's the best we can hope for.

its a valid point but i disagree. my fear is that if they they leave and subsequently find themselves up the creek as they inevitably will it will not lead to a period of self reflection. as opposed to seeing the error of their ways they will do exactly what they are doing now, blame everyone but themselves.
only next time it will be much worse because as opposed to just wishing for a return to an imaginary past they will actually be in some pretty dire straights.
it might be an exaggeration but the big difference between the UK today and Germany in the early 30's is that the Germans really did have something to complain about, for now the Brits dont, but following this madness they almost certainly will.

MassINeverHad

The longer the debate about the deal goes on the more the dup are going to kick up.

The deal is on thin ground. I hope it passes at some point as it seems to be our best option.

robinph

Article 50 needs a complete rewriting as soon as this is over so that it can deal with the reality of how it is actually done, until then though the EU could do with just making the exit date to be the end of the month that the UK gets themselves in order, add a fee onto the UK to pay to keep Tusk in his job until it's all over, and then the EU otherwise ignores the UK.

If it takes the UK another 5 years to figure out what they want then so be it, the EU could do without putting deadlines on things though for now as that just means the Tories will faff about wasting time until the month before the deadline and then complain about not having enough time. Remove that end date and make the UK figure it out.

Leroy42

robinph wrote: »

Article 50 needs a complete rewriting as soon as this is over so that it can deal with the reality of how it is actually done, until then though the EU could do with just making the exit date to be the end of the month that the UK gets themselves in order, add a fee onto the UK to pay to keep Tusk in his job until it's all over, and then the EU otherwise ignores the UK.

If it takes the UK another 5 years to figure out what they want then so be it, the EU could do without putting deadlines on things though for now as that just means the Tories will faff about wasting time until the month before the deadline and then complain about not having enough time. Remove that end date and make the UK figure it out.

The deadline written in A50 is at the very core of why the EU hold the cards. Remove the end date, as is shown by the extensions, simply removes the need for a decision whilst allowing them to continue to threaten to leave.

[Deleted User]

The EU should just give them an indefinite extension. Once the HOC actually votes through, whether it be the deal they've been offered, no deal, or revoke, they give the EU a months notice they're leaving.
All this deadline stuff is utter nonsense. Just give them a take it or leave it option, but stop crying to us looking for extensions because you can't get your house in order.

The EU must have plans for all 3 situations at this stage.

There's a lot more work need to happen in the EU and Brexit is taking a lot of time and energy away from other policies.

ancapailldorcha

robinph wrote: »

Article 50 needs a complete rewriting as soon as this is over so that it can deal with the reality of how it is actually done, until then though the EU could do with just making the exit date to be the end of the month that the UK gets themselves in order, add a fee onto the UK to pay to keep Tusk in his job until it's all over, and then the EU otherwise ignores the UK.

If it takes the UK another 5 years to figure out what they want then so be it, the EU could do without putting deadlines on things though for now as that just means the Tories will faff about wasting time until the month before the deadline and then complain about not having enough time. Remove that end date and make the UK figure it out.

This would effectively require another treaty though and the ratification of Lisbon was far from smooth. I shouldn't think it would be necessary in any case. Brexit is the best piece of pro-EU propaganda we'll see for several years.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Remove the end date, as is shown by the extensions, simply removes the need for a decision whilst allowing them to continue to threaten to leave.

Yes, but we don't care if they threaten to leave for the next 100 years, in fact it does us some good. What we care about is if they actually ever do leave, especially if they manage to trip themselves up and leave with no deal.

I think it would be better if we could just remove the dates altogether and wait for them to sort out what it is they actually want, because 1) it costs very little to wait and 2) it lowers the risk that they will leave with no deal, the most expensive Brexit of all.

This constant drumbeat of cliff-edge leave dates (the latest one only 1 week away now) was thought would focus minds and get them to get their act together, but it hasn't done that so far, and it is very, very risky.

Enzokk

The EU should grant the UK the extension that they requested that will cause the least fuss. So up to 31st January 2020. Anything else will need a further vote and more drama so approve what Johnson asked for. If they were able to get one extension through you suspect a new one can be asked for as well if they come up to the deadline in January. There will be drama, let it be when the deadline is coming up instead of having further council meetings if their extension suggestion is rejected by parliament before an extension is agreed.

Strazdas

robinph wrote: »

Article 50 needs a complete rewriting as soon as this is over so that it can deal with the reality of how it is actually done, until then though the EU could do with just making the exit date to be the end of the month that the UK gets themselves in order, add a fee onto the UK to pay to keep Tusk in his job until it's all over, and then the EU otherwise ignores the UK.

If it takes the UK another 5 years to figure out what they want then so be it, the EU could do without putting deadlines on things though for now as that just means the Tories will faff about wasting time until the month before the deadline and then complain about not having enough time. Remove that end date and make the UK figure it out.

Lord Kerr says he assumed A50 would never be triggered and he was just writing a theoretical piece of legislation. The idea of even the UK leaving would have seemed preposterous to most people in 2009 (Labour were still in power and UKIP were seen as a bunch of cranks / nutcases) - it shows just how far the UK has lurched to the right in the last decade.

gooch2k9

Is there any indication of when the EU will return a decision on the extension? Business motion from JRM doesn't mention Brexit, are they trying to run down the clock to the 31st now in the hopes of no deal?

Strazdas

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Is there any indication of when the EU will return a decision on the extension? Business motion from JRM doesn't mention Brexit, are they trying to run down the clock to the 31st now in the hopes of no deal?

I think Tusk said he is awaiting further details from Johnson and what he intends to do - even though the extension letter has been sent.

FrancieBrady

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Is there any indication of when the EU will return a decision on the extension? Business motion from JRM doesn't mention Brexit, are they trying to run down the clock to the 31st now in the hopes of no deal?

Was it not said yesterday that it would be next week before they give a decision?

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

I think Tusk said he is awaiting further details from Johnson and what he intends to do - even though the extension letter has been sent.

On twitter, he said that following the pause in the WA, he is recommending the EU27 approve the extension, and that he explained why to Johnson on a call.

My read from these tweets (and Varadkars comment) is that Tusk has already gone to the EU27 leaders to recommend they approve the extension, and that the next we will hear is that the extension has been unanimously granted (written format) or that a meeting of the EU27 leaders is scheduled to discuss it, if they don't agree via other means.

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1186737952313004032
https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1186977252011106304

Strazdas

^^ There's also this just in from the BBC's Adam Fleming:

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1187344033779277824

Tea Shock

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Is there any indication of when the EU will return a decision on the extension? Business motion from JRM doesn't mention Brexit, are they trying to run down the clock to the 31st now in the hopes of no deal?

RTE are saying the EU are deciding tomorrow.

Also that some in Number 10, specifically Dominic Cummings, wants to abandon the WAB altogether and go for an election now. Perhaps via the Tory party bringing a motion of no confidence in their own government. The irony!

prawnsambo

Tea Shock wrote: »

RTE are saying the EU are deciding tomorrow.

Also that some in Number 10, specifically Dominic Cummings, wants to abandon the WAB altogether and go for an election now. Perhaps via the Tory party bringing a motion of no confidence in their own government. The irony!

They can do that, but that would give the opposition the opportunity to form a GNU. Or they could move a bill for an election, but that would allow the opposition the opportunity to tack something on to that bill like expanding the vote to 16 or 17 year olds.

Oh what a tangled web we weave...

Field east

Strazdas wrote: »

I think Tusk said he is awaiting further details from Johnson and what he intends to do - even though the extension letter has been sent.

When you have a professional job the minimum requirement by everybody including the public at large is that you behave in a professional way , be courteous , have basic manners, do the right thing, have the right decorum for the situation presented, etc , etc, etc. given this , I was clearly taken aback when BJ sent an unsigned letter requesting the extension. Further insult was added to injury when he sent two further letters and which he SIGNED.

But apparently, BJ thought of a further idea to try and show the ‘two fingers’ or something along those lines ie. THE UNSIGNED LETTER SENT WAS A PHOTOCOPY. There is no end to the guy. So that’s how he plans to treat his ‘European friends’ who he keeps referring to. God help him when it comes to negotiating trade deals with anybody but especially Europe

jimmycrackcorm

farmchoice wrote: »

its a valid point but i disagree. my fear is that if they they leave and subsequently find themselves up the creek as they inevitably will it will not lead to a period of self reflection. as opposed to seeing the error of their ways they will do exactly what they are doing now, blame everyone but themselves.
only next time it will be much worse because as opposed to just wishing for a return to an imaginary past they will actually be in some pretty dire straights.
it might be an exaggeration but the big difference between the UK today and Germany in the early 30's is that the Germans really did have something to complain about, for now the Brits dont, but following this madness they almost certainly will.

They might still point to the EU to blame for not getting a great FTA, but who are they going to blame when they get screwed over by a US FTA?

When the NHS is crumbling and then they can't blame immigration, what will they do?

They've lived under the illusion that EU laws had been stifling them and then discover that actually the imagined benefit never materialises. The fingers will point internally.

They might fingerpoint at the EU after but they're nothing they can do about it except wallow in recrimination until a generation change who will want to rejoin and accept the benefits.