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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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    #4382
    liamtech
    Registered Users Posts: 2,298 ✭✭✭liamtech


    threeball wrote: »
    Corbyn thinks he has the Tories over a barrel and forcing bojo to ask for an extension would be the nail in his coffin. Like all politicians, once the sniff of power is in the air they won't care about doing the right thing, just the right thing for them

    No i doubt Corbyn Could move against BoJo if
    • The EU Agree
    • The ERG Agree
    • Northern Ireland Agree (Whether or not the DUP do is another thing and this is where things are gonna get .. WEIRD..)
    • Dublin Agrees

    For Corbyn to block a deal accepted by the above 4, it would be suicide - i think Corbyn missed his chance - the opposition for that Matter

    ALL OF THIS ASSUMES A DEAL, AGREED BY THE ABOVE

    Highly unlikely but we will know soon enough

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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    #4383
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 8,018 ✭✭✭threeball


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Checked some of the dup twitter feeds - nothing. They are either on board with this or in lockdown mode before erupting in a chorus of NOOOOO!

    Ben Lowry of the Newsletter wonders on Prime Time if Johnson is going to shaft the DUP

    I don't see how it harms him if he does. He certainly doesn't want them in his government if he gets elected PM next time. They're a plague and he'll not want them anywhere near him.


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    #4384
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 8,018 ✭✭✭threeball


    liamtech wrote: »
    threeball wrote: »
    Corbyn thinks he has the Tories over a barrel and forcing bojo to ask for an extension would be the nail in his coffin. Like all politicians, once the sniff of power is in the air they won't care about doing the right thing, just the right thing for them

    No i doubt Corbyn Could move against BoJo if
    • The EU Agree
    • The ERG Agree
    • Northern Ireland Agree (Whether or not the DUP do is another thing and this is where things are gonna get .. WEIRD..)
    • Dublin Agrees

    For Corbyn to block a deal accepted by the above 4, it would be suicide - i think Corbyn missed his chance - the opposition for that Matter

    ALL OF THIS ASSUMES A DEAL, AGREED BY THE ABOVE

    Highly unlikely but we will know soon enough

    If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.


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    #4385
    liamtech
    Registered Users Posts: 2,298 ✭✭✭liamtech


    CarPark2 wrote: »
    Hard to believe BoJo would move unless he was confident of bringing ERG with him.

    This entire situation is very hard to read

    For everyone watching on TV

    The View is on BBC 1 NI tonight at 10:35
    Question Time is on far later on BBC NI but usual time of 10:35 on BBC 1 London

    I honestly have no idea whats going on now
    • If Varadkar is correct then suddenly it looks like BJ might through NI under a bus, from a DUP point of view anyway
    • This could work to every other parties advantage depending on the next election - Unionists might see the DUP as either the original sell outs (for agreeing to BJs first offer) - or the last bastion of proper unionism
    • The ERG - no idea what they think, watching their feeds like a hawk
    • Lets be frank - we DONT KNOW what these 'movements' and or 'concessions' are

    May we live in interesting times - interested to see what everyone else says

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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    #4386
    Dyr
    Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    ToBeFrank123 wrote: »
    Joke of a comment but no surprise it was popular!
    Hundreds of thousands could have died if the unionists and nationalists were forced into a United Ireland in 1923. It would have been all out civil war and far far more than the 3000 or more that died in the recent troubles. Eventually a 6 county solution would be imposed only after we'd finished slaughtering each other.

    To call the Treaty a bad deal is foolish and atrocious revisionism. Thankfully we were led by coolheads like Collins at the time and not a fool like De Valera.

    Cool heads mor dhea :rolleyes:. Collins and Liam lynch wanted to start a civil war in the north so they could unite the pro and anti-treaty forces against Loyalism.


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    #4387
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    threeball wrote: »
    If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

    But if Johnson agrees to the NI backstop, does he risk being outflanked by the Brexit Party?


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    #4388
    liamtech
    Registered Users Posts: 2,298 ✭✭✭liamtech


    threeball wrote: »
    If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

    we just cant know yet

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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    #4389
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 8,018 ✭✭✭threeball


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    threeball wrote: »
    If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

    But if Johnson agrees to the NI backstop, does he risk being outflanked by the Brexit Party?

    Why, no one in the UK gives a sh1t about the north. The propaganda is going out already about what a drain it is. Brexit party has no hold over the press like the Tories. Only one winner in that war.


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    #4390
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,749 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    threeball wrote: »
    If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

    The only thing that BoJo could offer that is workable, is a border in the Irish Sea, and a commitment to NI remaining in the Single Market with some sort of non DUP veto Stormont approval needed. How can he get the DUP and ERG to vote for that? he would need Labour on board surely?


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    #4391
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Tony Connelly raising the Customs Partnership idea - NI formally outside CU, but applying EU tariffs and customs, thereby eliminating need for checks on island of Ireland:

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182402364885655552


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    #4392
    MPFGLB
    Registered Users Posts: 3,249 ✭✭✭MPFGLB


    Came here to figure ou what Leo is up to saying a deal is possible all of a sudden as reported on BBC at 10pmnews

    IS LV just going through the motions to be seen not to be responsible for a no deal ?

    Only thing that I can see working is NI staying in the customs union

    Which means DUP will be raging

    But most NI farmers and people wont

    what the hell is going on


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    #4393
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 8,018 ✭✭✭threeball


    Inquitus wrote: »
    threeball wrote: »
    If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

    The only thing that BoJo could offer that is workable, is a border in the Irish Sea, and a commitment to NI remaining in the Single Market with some sort of non DUP veto Stormont approval needed. How can he get the DUP and ERG to vote for that? he would need Labour on board surely?

    That's my point. Even if he doesn't get it, he tried, was thwarted by parliament and didn't have to ask for an extension. If it goes through, he got the UK out like he promised. It's win win for him either way. Going any other way is lose lose.


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    #4394
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,749 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    threeball wrote: »
    That's my point. Even if he doesn't get it, he tried, was thwarted by parliament and didn't have to ask for an extension. If it goes through, he got the UK out like he promised. It's win win for him either way. Going any other way is lose lose.

    But if he doesn't get it through parliament they will force him to go for an extension.


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    #4395
    CelticRambler
    Registered Users Posts: 6,755 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    The WA that was voted down three times was not May's deal but the DUP's deal, locking GB into the (undemocratic, indefinite) backstop for ever and all eternity. May's original deal was never voted upon, because at the time, it looked like the HoC was still voting along predictable party lines, and those DUP votes were indispensible. Since then, everything's changed.

    It wouldn't surprise me to hear in the very near future that the Varadkar told Johnson that that original proposition would be fine by us, allowing Johnson to deliver a GB-exit on time and on terms yet to be negotiated, while suggesting that he could out-manoeuvre the DUP (and the ERG) by inviting a re-convened Stormont to agree to put it to a public vote (in NI alone) - or have it as a Direct Rule decree, their choice.

    Johnson meets his do-or-die deadline, would almost certainly get enough Labour rebels to counteract the DUP, could probably count on at least some of the new independent Tories and not-so-hard-core ERG, and have a better chance of being the PM that "got Brexit done" than by engaging in any more constitutional shenanigans.


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    #4396
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 8,018 ✭✭✭threeball


    Inquitus wrote: »
    threeball wrote: »
    That's my point. Even if he doesn't get it, he tried, was thwarted by parliament and didn't have to ask for an extension. If it goes through, he got the UK out like he promised. It's win win for him either way. Going any other way is lose lose.

    But if he doesn't get it through parliament they will force him to go for an extension.

    Possibly but he can spin it as Corbyn stopping the will of the people despite pulling a deal together. Better than arriving at the 31st not having tried a leg.


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    #4397
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    This is a pretty good explanation of how this overlapping/dual customs zone/DMZ could work.
    .
    .


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    #4398
    Clutterluck
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8 ✭Clutterluck


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    This is a pretty good explanation of how this overlapping/dual customs zone/DMZ could work

    How does that work if goods are imported into the North, but it is unclear whether their final destination is the North or the Republic? e.g. a wholesaler/importer in Tyrone that supplies all 32 counties


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    #4399
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Clutterluck wrote: »
    How does that work if goods are imported into the North, but it is unclear whether their final destination is the North or the Republic? e.g. a wholesaler/importer in Tyrone that supplies all 32 counties

    More importantly, how does VAT work?

    Tariffs are say 5% or 10%, but VAT is 20% or 25%, and who gets it, and is NI in the EU VAT regime? Is VAT payable on entry, or does the current system apply?

    Paperwork, eg customs clearance - how does that work?


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    #4400
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 8,018 ✭✭✭threeball


    Bertie on Newsnight talking rot about technology of the future solving the border and in the meantime going with self assessment. Wish he'd piss off back under his rock.


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    #4401
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,524 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    More importantly, how does VAT work?

    Tariffs are say 5% or 10%, but VAT is 20% or 25%, and who gets it, and is NI in the EU VAT regime? Is VAT payable on entry, or does the current system apply?

    Paperwork, eg customs clearance - how does that work?

    Doesn't the tweet state 'goods destined for' so, wherever the destination is, that VAT rate or tariff is applied and collected on behalf of.


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    #4402
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Clutterluck wrote: »
    How does that work if goods are imported into the North, but it is unclear whether their final destination is the North or the Republic? e.g. a wholesaler/importer in Tyrone that supplies all 32 counties
    The assumption is that there is no customs border in Ireland. So there are no tariffs. I seem to remember that this was looked at by the EU some time ago and they felt it was too small to be concerned about when weighed against the benefits.


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    #4403
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,570 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Just seen Bertie on newsnight giving sucker to the "alternative arrangements" crowd.

    Best not to say anything sometimes Bertie.


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    #4404
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    liamtech wrote: »
    The ERG will follow the DUP - its been the way all along throughout brexit - if the DUP say 'This New Deal Weakens the Union' - i dont see the ERG supporting it - which brings back the split in their block

    The ERG don't give a crap about Northern Ireland. They are already on record as saying the backstop was just a handy thing to hang their hats on so they can get no deal via the backdoor


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    #4405
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,558 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    The ERG don't give a crap about Northern Ireland. They are already on record as saying the backstop was just a handy thing to hang their hats on so they can get no deal via the backdoor

    There are a good few that are staunch unionists. Maybe not the majority but a significant enough number.


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    #4406
    Clutterluck
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8 ✭Clutterluck


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    The assumption is that there is no customs border in Ireland. So there are no tariffs. I seem to remember that this was looked at by the EU some time ago and they felt it was too small to be concerned about when weighed against the benefits.

    It seems like a gaping hole to me. If goods from some other third country are brought/dumped into the North, they can find their way into the Single Market and onto the continent via the back door.


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    #4407
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 8,018 ✭✭✭threeball


    Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »
    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    The ERG don't give a crap about Northern Ireland. They are already on record as saying the backstop was just a handy thing to hang their hats on so they can get no deal via the backdoor

    There are a good few that are staunch unionists. Maybe not the majority but a significant enough number.

    The real headers are. The main men like JRM are only there to see the pound stink the place out and be there to gobble up the cheap assets and failed companies than a crash out will inevitably bring. They saw what kind of money can be made off a recession and they're not going to hang around for another to naturally evolve.


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    #4408
    LooperDan
    Registered Users Posts: 2 ✭LooperDan


    I don't post so much, but just feel I want to say thanks to the posters on this thread which have made this my first point of call on the real happenings of all things Brexit.

    I have been following the thousands of posts over the last few months, and the contributions of most of the posters has been excellent.

    I have been living abroad from Ireland for a number of years, and have the ultimate desire to return to live one day, so it is a very important issue to me, and when referring to the general newsfeeds for information, I have been educated by this thread by the most and it has become the first port of call for information.

    I also want to thank those who moderate the thread for keeping it real and not allowing it to descend into the lower levels of trolling.

    It's been incredibly thought provocative and I am the wiser for all your contributions, not to mention very proud of the intelligence that exists in Ireland.

    One poster said that the transcript of these posts should be used in the aftermath for reference as how the whole Brexit process has been formally recorded, and I believe that there is no better example, to all of you, thank you.


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    #4409
    threeball
    Registered Users Posts: 8,018 ✭✭✭threeball


    Clutterluck wrote: »
    prawnsambo wrote: »
    The assumption is that there is no customs border in Ireland. So there are no tariffs. I seem to remember that this was looked at by the EU some time ago and they felt it was too small to be concerned about when weighed against the benefits.

    It seems like a gaping hole to me. If goods from some other third country are brought/dumped into the North, they can find their way into the Single Market and onto the continent via the back door.

    Nothing other than a border in the Irish sea will be acceptable to Ireland or the EU


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    #4410
    Clutterluck
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8 ✭Clutterluck


    threeball wrote: »
    Nothing other than a border in the Irish sea will be acceptable to Ireland or the EU

    I can understand that, but not how you prevent smuggling onto the continent.


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    #4411
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,570 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Varadkar all over the UK front pages tomorrow on a "surprising surge of optimism".

    https://news.sky.com/story/fridays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11832501

    The irony here is that this could shift Ireland from being the thorn in the side of leavers to be being the thorn in the side of remainers who won't want any deal thinking they can change course still.


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