Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch · 10-10-2019 10:13PM

threeball wrote: »

If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

But if Johnson agrees to the NI backstop, does he risk being outflanked by the Brexit Party?

liamtech · 10-10-2019 10:14PM

threeball wrote: »

If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

we just cant know yet

threeball · 10-10-2019 10:17PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

But if Johnson agrees to the NI backstop, does he risk being outflanked by the Brexit Party?

Why, no one in the UK gives a sh1t about the north. The propaganda is going out already about what a drain it is. Brexit party has no hold over the press like the Tories. Only one winner in that war.

Inquitus · 10-10-2019 10:17PM

threeball wrote: »

If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

The only thing that BoJo could offer that is workable, is a border in the Irish Sea, and a commitment to NI remaining in the Single Market with some sort of non DUP veto Stormont approval needed. How can he get the DUP and ERG to vote for that? he would need Labour on board surely?

An Ciarraioch · 10-10-2019 10:18PM

Tony Connelly raising the Customs Partnership idea - NI formally outside CU, but applying EU tariffs and customs, thereby eliminating need for checks on island of Ireland:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182402364885655552

MPFGLB · 10-10-2019 10:19PM

Came here to figure ou what Leo is up to saying a deal is possible all of a sudden as reported on BBC at 10pmnews

IS LV just going through the motions to be seen not to be responsible for a no deal ?

Only thing that I can see working is NI staying in the customs union

Which means DUP will be raging

But most NI farmers and people wont

what the hell is going on

threeball · 10-10-2019 10:23PM

Inquitus wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

If he agrees Bojo still wins. The man who delivered brexit by the 31st as promised. The only man to lead them to the promised land. I agree that Cornyn is now on the back foot but only if Boris genuinely tries to get a deal.

The only thing that BoJo could offer that is workable, is a border in the Irish Sea, and a commitment to NI remaining in the Single Market with some sort of non DUP veto Stormont approval needed. How can he get the DUP and ERG to vote for that? he would need Labour on board surely?

That's my point. Even if he doesn't get it, he tried, was thwarted by parliament and didn't have to ask for an extension. If it goes through, he got the UK out like he promised. It's win win for him either way. Going any other way is lose lose.

Inquitus · 10-10-2019 10:25PM

threeball wrote: »

That's my point. Even if he doesn't get it, he tried, was thwarted by parliament and didn't have to ask for an extension. If it goes through, he got the UK out like he promised. It's win win for him either way. Going any other way is lose lose.

But if he doesn't get it through parliament they will force him to go for an extension.

CelticRambler · 10-10-2019 10:29PM

The WA that was voted down three times was not May's deal but the DUP's deal, locking GB into the (undemocratic, indefinite) backstop for ever and all eternity. May's original deal was never voted upon, because at the time, it looked like the HoC was still voting along predictable party lines, and those DUP votes were indispensible. Since then, everything's changed.

It wouldn't surprise me to hear in the very near future that the Varadkar told Johnson that that original proposition would be fine by us, allowing Johnson to deliver a GB-exit on time and on terms yet to be negotiated, while suggesting that he could out-manoeuvre the DUP (and the ERG) by inviting a re-convened Stormont to agree to put it to a public vote (in NI alone) - or have it as a Direct Rule decree, their choice.

Johnson meets his do-or-die deadline, would almost certainly get enough Labour rebels to counteract the DUP, could probably count on at least some of the new independent Tories and not-so-hard-core ERG, and have a better chance of being the PM that "got Brexit done" than by engaging in any more constitutional shenanigans.

threeball · 10-10-2019 10:29PM

Inquitus wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

That's my point. Even if he doesn't get it, he tried, was thwarted by parliament and didn't have to ask for an extension. If it goes through, he got the UK out like he promised. It's win win for him either way. Going any other way is lose lose.

But if he doesn't get it through parliament they will force him to go for an extension.

Possibly but he can spin it as Corbyn stopping the will of the people despite pulling a deal together. Better than arriving at the 31st not having tried a leg.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 10:29PM

This is a pretty good explanation of how this overlapping/dual customs zone/DMZ could work.
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Clutterluck · 10-10-2019 10:39PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is a pretty good explanation of how this overlapping/dual customs zone/DMZ could work

How does that work if goods are imported into the North, but it is unclear whether their final destination is the North or the Republic? e.g. a wholesaler/importer in Tyrone that supplies all 32 counties

Sam Russell · 10-10-2019 10:43PM

Clutterluck wrote: »

How does that work if goods are imported into the North, but it is unclear whether their final destination is the North or the Republic? e.g. a wholesaler/importer in Tyrone that supplies all 32 counties

More importantly, how does VAT work?

Tariffs are say 5% or 10%, but VAT is 20% or 25%, and who gets it, and is NI in the EU VAT regime? Is VAT payable on entry, or does the current system apply?

Paperwork, eg customs clearance - how does that work?

threeball · 10-10-2019 10:44PM

Bertie on Newsnight talking rot about technology of the future solving the border and in the meantime going with self assessment. Wish he'd piss off back under his rock.

Tell me how · 10-10-2019 10:45PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

More importantly, how does VAT work?

Tariffs are say 5% or 10%, but VAT is 20% or 25%, and who gets it, and is NI in the EU VAT regime? Is VAT payable on entry, or does the current system apply?

Paperwork, eg customs clearance - how does that work?

Doesn't the tweet state 'goods destined for' so, wherever the destination is, that VAT rate or tariff is applied and collected on behalf of.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 10:46PM

Clutterluck wrote: »

How does that work if goods are imported into the North, but it is unclear whether their final destination is the North or the Republic? e.g. a wholesaler/importer in Tyrone that supplies all 32 counties

The assumption is that there is no customs border in Ireland. So there are no tariffs. I seem to remember that this was looked at by the EU some time ago and they felt it was too small to be concerned about when weighed against the benefits.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2019 10:47PM

Just seen Bertie on newsnight giving sucker to the "alternative arrangements" crowd.

Best not to say anything sometimes Bertie.

LeinsterDub · 10-10-2019 10:51PM

liamtech wrote: »

The ERG will follow the DUP - its been the way all along throughout brexit - if the DUP say 'This New Deal Weakens the Union' - i dont see the ERG supporting it - which brings back the split in their block

The ERG don't give a crap about Northern Ireland. They are already on record as saying the backstop was just a handy thing to hang their hats on so they can get no deal via the backdoor

Mr.Nice Guy · 10-10-2019 10:56PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The ERG don't give a crap about Northern Ireland. They are already on record as saying the backstop was just a handy thing to hang their hats on so they can get no deal via the backdoor

There are a good few that are staunch unionists. Maybe not the majority but a significant enough number.

Clutterluck · 10-10-2019 10:59PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

The assumption is that there is no customs border in Ireland. So there are no tariffs. I seem to remember that this was looked at by the EU some time ago and they felt it was too small to be concerned about when weighed against the benefits.

It seems like a gaping hole to me. If goods from some other third country are brought/dumped into the North, they can find their way into the Single Market and onto the continent via the back door.

threeball · 10-10-2019 11:01PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The ERG don't give a crap about Northern Ireland. They are already on record as saying the backstop was just a handy thing to hang their hats on so they can get no deal via the backdoor

There are a good few that are staunch unionists. Maybe not the majority but a significant enough number.

The real headers are. The main men like JRM are only there to see the pound stink the place out and be there to gobble up the cheap assets and failed companies than a crash out will inevitably bring. They saw what kind of money can be made off a recession and they're not going to hang around for another to naturally evolve.

LooperDan · 10-10-2019 11:01PM

I don't post so much, but just feel I want to say thanks to the posters on this thread which have made this my first point of call on the real happenings of all things Brexit.

I have been following the thousands of posts over the last few months, and the contributions of most of the posters has been excellent.

I have been living abroad from Ireland for a number of years, and have the ultimate desire to return to live one day, so it is a very important issue to me, and when referring to the general newsfeeds for information, I have been educated by this thread by the most and it has become the first port of call for information.

I also want to thank those who moderate the thread for keeping it real and not allowing it to descend into the lower levels of trolling.

It's been incredibly thought provocative and I am the wiser for all your contributions, not to mention very proud of the intelligence that exists in Ireland.

One poster said that the transcript of these posts should be used in the aftermath for reference as how the whole Brexit process has been formally recorded, and I believe that there is no better example, to all of you, thank you.

threeball · 10-10-2019 11:02PM

Clutterluck wrote: »

prawnsambo wrote: »

The assumption is that there is no customs border in Ireland. So there are no tariffs. I seem to remember that this was looked at by the EU some time ago and they felt it was too small to be concerned about when weighed against the benefits.

It seems like a gaping hole to me. If goods from some other third country are brought/dumped into the North, they can find their way into the Single Market and onto the continent via the back door.

Nothing other than a border in the Irish sea will be acceptable to Ireland or the EU

Clutterluck · 10-10-2019 11:05PM

threeball wrote: »

Nothing other than a border in the Irish sea will be acceptable to Ireland or the EU

I can understand that, but not how you prevent smuggling onto the continent.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2019 11:05PM

Varadkar all over the UK front pages tomorrow on a "surprising surge of optimism".

https://news.sky.com/story/fridays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11832501

The irony here is that this could shift Ireland from being the thorn in the side of leavers to be being the thorn in the side of remainers who won't want any deal thinking they can change course still.

Headshot · 10-10-2019 11:06PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The ERG don't give a crap about Northern Ireland. They are already on record as saying the backstop was just a handy thing to hang their hats on so they can get no deal via the backdoor

The conservative base doesn’t give a damn about NI. Back in 2018 YouGov poll results show the conservative base would sacrifice NI for brexit. The ERG wouldn’t even hesitate to get rid of the nuisance NI

Mr.Nice Guy · 10-10-2019 11:08PM

Seems like the DUP veto idea has been done away with. Here's the NI Secretary of State moments ago:

https://twitter.com/bbctheview/status/1182414451364061186

threeball · 10-10-2019 11:08PM

Clutterluck wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

Nothing other than a border in the Irish sea will be acceptable to Ireland or the EU

I can understand that, but not how you prevent smuggling onto the continent.

Well nothing can get on to the island without being checked at the ports and so it will be no different than if the goods arrived in the republic.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 11:10PM

Clutterluck wrote: »

It seems like a gaping hole to me. If goods from some other third country are brought/dumped into the North, they can find their way into the Single Market and onto the continent via the back door.

Not really. The fact that everything entering NI is recorded means that there's traceability. Full SPS checks can take place in Larne. Afaik, they already do have checks there for 3rd country arrivals.

There seems to be indications that this is being taken seriously. Peter Foster has been tweeting about how little information is going around. Even noted that the "peerless" Tony Connelly is in the dark too.
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Sierra Oscar · 10-10-2019 11:13PM

Ben Lowry on the Tonight Show now saying he can't make any contact with DUP politicians tonight, complete radio silence. Ominous for them. If they were onboard they would be briefing. Silence suggests they are out of the loop

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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