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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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    #4442
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,467 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Brexit: Julian Smith says no one NI community will have veto
    Speaking on BBC's The View, Mr Smith did not deny that a NI-only referendum was on the table.

    Interesting. DUP veto could be dead.


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    #4443
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,925 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Brexit: Julian Smith says no one NI community will have veto



    Interesting. DUP veto could be dead.

    It was never alive.


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    #4444
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,467 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    It was never alive.

    It was in fairness considering the UK Govt were actively pushing it at the DUP's behest. It just never would have been acceptable on our end, total non-runner.


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    #4445
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,722 ✭✭✭✭josip


    But won't Scotland also want whatever arrangement is being proposed for NI?
    Not our problem to solve, but an obstacle to agreeing a possible deal surely?


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    #4446
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,925 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    It was in fairness considering the UK Govt were actively pushing it at the DUP's behest. It just never would have been acceptable on our end, total non-runner.

    Exactly, it was never alive.


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    #4447
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,602 ✭✭✭✭briany


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    It was never alive.

    Classic bargaining, really. Lowball/Highball. Johnson knew the idea of a DUP-only veto was never a goer, and by being seen to drop it, he hopes the other side might see that as a significant concession. He was always prepared to concede that one. Let's see if he moves a bit further.


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    #4448
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,524 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Listening to Brexitcast at the moment. They're talking down the prospect of a deal but, interestingly, I'm getting the sense that they're talking it down because it seems to have eminated from the Irish side with statement from Leo Varadkar and article in Irish times hinting progress.



    Edit: I'm now at part where a guy has made a disco album influenced by the sounds and terms of Brexit and they've him in to play snippets.
    They're playing chequers, Tony Connelly is playing chess.


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    #4449
    Rain Ascending
    Registered Users Posts: 172 ✭✭Rain Ascending


    josip wrote: »
    But won't Scotland also want whatever arrangement is being proposed for NI?
    Not our problem to solve, but an obstacle to agreeing a possible deal surely?

    This shouldn't be an obstacle to Johnson agreeing a deal. He's not counting on SNP votes to get the deal through and no Scottish Tory MP would be supportive of a NI-only "arrangement"/"backstop" (*) applying to Scotland.

    Besides it's not on offer from the European Commission. The NI setup is not going to be a simple membership of the SM (remember, the current UK offer is goods only) nor of a straightforward customs union. The EC is bending the rules a bit here only because NI is so small and because a member state (Ireland) has convinced them that it is an existential issue that speaks to historical deeply-held core EU values (building peace between nations previously in conflict). This doesn't apply to Scotland.

    While the SNP will make noise about this, it's in their interest that the broader Scottish population understands the EU's position. Then the argument they can make is that Scottish independence is the only way to get closer to the EU.

    (*) Delete as appropriate for your audience.


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    #4450
    Rain Ascending
    Registered Users Posts: 172 ✭✭Rain Ascending


    We'll see what comes out of Brussels later today, but the last sentence in this Tony Connelly tweet is encouraging...

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1182402368417259520


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    #4451
    fash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    Water John wrote: »
    If parliament rejects, by a small number, a proposed deal acceptable to the EU and the UK Govn't, he can get an Ext and then go for a GE.
    A new Govn't, he hopes led by himself gets the deal across the line.
    That's a sensible plan, maybe one he's stumbled on, as the only positive option left.
    Isn't that one of the loopholes in the Benn act? If he does that, he can then have a "no deal versus this deal" showdown- no way out? At that point, parliament forced to back or abstain.


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    #4452
    fash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Looks a pretty horrid article.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/10/northern-ireland-burden-rest-uk-cant-let-get-way-brexit/

    On cue.

    All choreographed to sell it to the Brexit base.

    It's not altogether horrid. Absolutely mills into the north for being a millstone around the UK's neck and then proceeds to big up the prosperity and secularity of the 26 counties. Funny that...

    Now, I had to subscribe to read the bugger.

    So you don't have to...
    The Telegraph wrote:
    Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

    The EU talks are still in danger of collapsing because of Northern Ireland at a time when the majority of people who live there think they will be part of a united Ireland within ten years, according to Lord Ashcroft’s September poll.

    Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

    In 2016-17, according to HM Treasury figures, total expenditure by the Government on Northern Ireland was £20.6 billion. HMRC reports that tax receipts from Northern Ireland in the same year came to £11.7 billion, a net payment of £8.8 billion.

    There is more than one way of looking at the cost of the EU, but if we use the official figures published by the European Commission, which include payments by Brussels to the UK’s public and private sectors, the net average annual cost for the five years from 2014 to 2018 was £7.8 billion (after deducting the UK’s payment rebate).

    In other words we pay a net £7.8 billion to gain access to a market of about 450 million people (after deducting our own population) and we pay £8.8 billion a year to 1.8 million people in Northern Ireland.

    Moreover, we effectively bribe the people of Northern Ireland to stay in the UK by spending more on them than we spend on ourselves. Average "identifiable expenditure" per head, according to HM Treasury, was £9,159 in 2016-17. Of the four countries that make up the UK, Northern Ireland received the largest amount per head at £11,042. The people of England received £8,898 per head.

    The time has come to test whether the people of Northern Ireland would vote to unite with the republic. Lord Ashcroft’s poll carried out last month found a small majority in favour of having a referendum on Irish unity. True, when asked to predict the outcome if a referendum were held tomorrow, 59 per cent said they thought that Northern Ireland would vote to stay in the UK. However, when asked what the outcome would be in ten years, 54 per cent said they thought it would go the other way.

    It’s not surprising. Ireland has changed. As measured by GDP per head, Ireland is very prosperous. The latest statistics show GDP per head in Ireland of $72,600. The Northern Ireland equivalent is $29,300 and for the UK it is $42,400.

    Twenty years ago Ireland was dominated by the Catholic Church, which ran most schools and hospitals and had an extensive role in politics generally. In recent times, however, the church has been permanently weakened by the child-abuse scandals and subsequent cover-ups. The protestants of Northern Ireland have very little to fear from the modern Catholic Church, and there must now be a real chance that the sectarianism that has so disfigured the island’s history can be overcome.

    The north-south institutions for co-operation created by the Belfast Agreement have worked well and many elements of the all-island economy have proved successful. Ian Paisley famously remarked that island-wide animal-health regulations meant that the cattle were all Irish. And Ireland’s rugby union team, now playing in the World Cup, has long been drawn from both sides of the border. No doubt these examples can be dismissed as minor exceptions, but they reveal what’s possible with a bit of good will.

    Accepting customs checks at the Irish Sea would allow the EU negotiations to be successfully concluded and remains the best solution, but if the DUP continues to block this obvious remedy, then a referendum on Irish unity will be the best way forward for everyone, in Northern Ireland, the republic and the rest of the UK.

    David Green is director of Civitas

    ---

    Now that italicized part is most interesting.

    Civitas are based in 55 Tufton St. Former home of...

    I mean, we're good on this thread, but the Cummings play-by-play just keeps bring called out.
    I get the impression that this article is aimed at the DUP as a threat: "i will turn on you seriously if I have to"- rather than aimed at changing general opinion in GB


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    #4453
    jimmycrackcorm
    Registered Users Posts: 14,331 ✭✭✭✭jimmycrackcorm


    Inquitus wrote: »
    But if he doesn't get it through parliament they will force him to go for an extension.

    The EU might send the signal trust they will accept this deal and will not offer an extension.

    That might sharpen minds.


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    #4454
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users Posts: 26,243 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    fash wrote: »
    Isn't that one of the loopholes in the Benn act? If he does that, he can then have a "no deal versus this deal" showdown- no way out? At that point, parliament forced to back or abstain.
    That's not a "loophole". The point of the Benn Act is to avoid a no-deal Brexit. On the scenario outlined by Water John, the UK leaves with a deal; job done.


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    #4455
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    BonnieSituation wrote: »

    That Telegraph piece

    It reads like both a message to the people of England saying 'NI is holding us back on multiple fronts', and a message to the Unionists and Protestants of NI saying 'Ireland ain't that bad for yis now that the RCC have lost a serious amount of power and influence...go on give it a try'.

    Be interesting to see where this goes. As someone else alluded to in this thread - This didn't just appear out of thin air, not when The Telegraph is concerned.


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    #4456
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    MPFGLB wrote: »
    IS LV just going through the motions to be seen not to be responsible for a no deal ?

    what the hell

    No. Leo was there as jointly agreed choreography by the EU and the UK so that BJ could present his concessions with the right optics. He has to be seen not to concede to the EU. But could do it directly with Ireland under the guise of mutual cooperation and concern for peace, the border, the GFA, etc. In reality, Leo was not there under his own steam, and has no scope independent of the EU. But was the acceptable face proxy for M Barnier for this manœuvre.
    Its then a case of working on the Unionists in the North to make it work.
    And everyone is a hero. BJ delivers. Leo guardian of peace and economics on the island. And the EU, for expertly pulling the puppet strings that solved this impasse. Even the unionists get what they want even though they can't admit it, and yet have been seen to fight their corner and uphold their values.


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    #4457
    Torsevt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 45 ✭Torsevt


    Brexit is a goldmine for varadkar

    He's collecting statesman brownie points all the way and distracting from everything else.

    MM has to keep scthum too


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    #4458
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,035 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    briany wrote: »
    I don't know if it's the Russian trolls working overtime in the comment sections of the Internet (I'm sure that's got to be at least a significant amount), but every time I see Tony Blair pop up to talk about a current issue - to offer his opinion - it's, "Oh, **** off, Tony. What about the Iraq war, Tony? How dare the war criminal Tony Blair pontificate about ANYTHING." etc. etc.

    I don't see many sticking up for him, so I think the net result is that he's not the best advocate against Brexit, no matter how much sense he might be talking.

    Its not just far right trolls though.

    Many people feel their was no accountability for the Iraq war and Blair has unfortunately blood on his hands.

    Their was a debate this week in America where Ellen defended her friendship with George Bush, rightfully she got push back and plenty from the left as Bush like Blair have remained prominent figures since then.

    Obviously their was more support on the right for the Iraq war but alas when it comes to the UK the leader of the main left wing party sold the public a lie to enter one of the most pointless wars which he should never be forgiven for.

    Blair is articulate when it comes to Brexit compared to man, but you can understand why people tune him out instantly.


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    #4459
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,035 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Assume we all expect this to break down today aye?

    No matter how pally Leo and Boris were Yesterday, I expect Barclay to undo any progress. He is one of those politicians who is fortunate that looking suave for many sadly is more important than actually been competent in their job.


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    #4460
    Dyr
    Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    fash wrote: »
    Isn't that one of the loopholes in the Benn act? If he does that, he can then have a "no deal versus this deal" showdown- no way out? At that point, parliament forced to back or abstain.

    I said this a while back, Johnson was using the overshoot the target trick, make leaving on the 31st the battlefield for the opposition


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    #4461
    fash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    fash wrote: »
    Isn't that one of the loopholes in the Benn act? If he does that, he can then have a "no deal versus this deal" showdown- no way out? At that point, parliament forced to back or abstain.
    That's not a "loophole". The point of the Benn Act is to avoid a no-deal Brexit. On the scenario outlined by Water John, the UK leaves with a deal; job done.
    Yes, looked into after my post and saw I was wrong (i.e. parliament must approve) - and thought I'd edited post to correct, but didn't seem to have sent for some reason.


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    #4462
    fash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    Deleted User wrote: »
    BonnieSituation wrote: »

    That Telegraph piece

    It reads like both a message to the people of England saying 'NI is holding us back on multiple fronts', and a message to the Unionists and Protestants of NI saying 'Ireland ain't that bad for yis now that the RCC have lost a serious amount of power and influence...go on give it a try'.

    Be interesting to see where this goes. As someone else alluded to in this thread - This didn't just appear out of thin air, not when The Telegraph is concerned.
    Was thinking: it can't have just been drafted in the aftermath of the Varadkar-Johnson meeting- insufficient time to write and publish both I'd guess. Perhaps it was something on hold to send out as a warning shot?

    Edit: Alternative explanation: all of this is choreographed- as mentioned above.


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    #4463
    Torsevt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 45 ✭Torsevt


    Realistically we don't want brexit at all so we have to keep the bar set high in relation to any deal.

    Keep it out of teach of consensus in the UK and get them back to a referendum and get brexit overturned later.

    I'm sure the EU sees it the same


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    #4464
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users Posts: 15,102 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Torsevt wrote: »
    Brexit is a goldmine for varadkar

    He's collecting statesman brownie points all the way and distracting from everything else.

    MM has to keep scthum too

    But he an Covney have also done a good job on Brexit.

    They have made sure that the GFA, the cross border economy and the "normalsee” (sp) of life on the island have been front and center from day one.

    It would be easy for Europeans in far flung places like Bulgaria, Estonia etc and not so far flung like France or The Netherlands to just cast Ireland aside as collateral damage and plough on with a deal that would have been easier to do.

    But no they didn't, and that is in a large part due to Ireland leadership on this.


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    #4465
    Torsevt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 45 ✭Torsevt


    Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »
    But he an Covney have also done a good job on Brexit.

    They have made sure that the GFA, the cross border economy and the "normalsee” (sp) of life on the island have been front and center from day one.

    It would be easy for Europeans in far flung places like Bulgaria, Estonia etc and not so far flung like France or The Netherlands to just cast Ireland aside as collateral damage and plough on with a deal that would have been easier to do.

    But no they didn't, and that is in a large part due to Ireland leadership on this.
    Ya but he's coasting now all the way following a simple enough playbook


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    #4466
    trellheim
    Registered Users Posts: 5,888 ✭✭✭trellheim


    big question do we have enough to get into the tunnel


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    #4467
    20silkcut
    Registered Users Posts: 2,557 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Torsevt wrote: »
    Realistically we don't want brexit at all so we have to keep the bar set high in relation to any deal.

    Keep it out of teach of consensus in the UK and get them back to a referendum and get brexit overturned later.

    I'm sure the EU sees it the same

    I think that’s up to remainers in the UK.
    It’s not up to Ireland and the EU to get a second referendum in the UK.
    That is up to British remainers.
    And they have not got their house in order in any way at all since 2016.


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    #4468
    Remind me
    Registered Users Posts: 871 ✭✭✭Remind me


    Torsevt wrote: »
    Ya but he's coasting now all the way following a simple enough playbook

    You can hardly say him, Coveney or McEntee are coasting now at what is one of the most difficult times in the whole debacle. He has clearly been given some leeway by Brussels to take a bit of a lead and report back and he is having to deal with one of the most irrational PM’s in history.


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    #4469
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,285 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    trellheim wrote: »
    big question do we have enough to get into the tunnel

    The next 24 hours will be make or break. Baker will have to give Barnier solid and detailed proposals, not just vague assurances.


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    #4470
    Torsevt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 45 ✭Torsevt


    Remind me wrote: »
    You can hardly say him, Coveney or McEntee are coasting now at what is one of the most difficult times in the whole debacle. He has clearly been given some leeway by Brussels to take a bit of a lead and report back and he is having to deal with one of the most irrational PM’s in history.

    It's not like anything varadkar and coveney are doing is rocket science

    They have to be careful what they say


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    #4471
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users Posts: 15,405 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Martin currently on morning Ireland

    He’s quite bullish about possibltity of deal being done in the next few weeks.

    He’s emphasizing the need for consent on all sides in NI along with UK Irish engagement


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