Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

dfx- wrote: »

They have to ask the EU to my knowledge so if it's a Brexit mandate from a GE and Brexit PM...



There's no Remain coalition that can win realistically. It will be a Brexit mandate with a strong leave cabinet and PM.

Hmmm. I'm not so sure about that. Polling would indicate that only 32% favour a hard Brexit. Of course it's a FPTP system - which mitigates against coalitions - but there might be much more voters who want no Brexit or a deal and who will vote accordingly. A hard Brexit government isn't at all certain after the next GE.

Igotadose

downcow wrote: »

Deleted post.

No problem. Border on the Irish sea, checks on the UK mainland, easy peasy.

Stop moaning ffs

downcow wrote: »

Deleted post.

You clearly haven’t been paying attention to anything outside british media if that’s your view.
Why should ireland or any country drop its own interests and protection against a hostile and untrustworthy adversary, as the UK has proven to be?
Do you really thing the uk would do it were the tables reversed?
They really really wouldn’t.

The backstop was placed so the UK couldn’t later use NI as a bargaining tool.
Their arrogance and incompetence in negotiations with the EU is to blame.
You’re not dealing with Ireland. You’re dealing with the 27 member states of the EU. You don’t give the country with delusions of long gone imperial grandeur that’s throwing a hissy fit, everything it wants.

Strazdas

prawnsambo wrote: »

It will be interesting to see if the Brexit Party get anything like the number of seats that their polling would suggest. Because UKIP were never able to convert their polling into seats in Westminster. There's a theory that their support stops short of giving them a say in domestic politics.

An intriguing thing is that Farage and the party have been taking a massive amount of criticism on Twitter in the last week or so - over the anthem and Widdecombe in Strasbourg certainly but also over their general behaviour and pronouncements (including demanding No Deal). This is not just the usual stuff, they are being positively lambasted.

trellheim

Just a tiny bit of flexibility around the backstop

You mean when the EU assented at the UK's request to making the back-stop UK-wide, that kind of flexibility and bending over and then having it rammed back in your face , is that the kind of thing you are on about ?

PS : The EXCEEDINGLY short memories of many in the UK in senior roles conveniently forgetting eaten bread like this is precisely why there is no time limit on the back stop and why our current government is effectively one of national unity on this issue.


Edit : OP has deleted their post but was asking why the EU didn't show flexibility

Stop moaning ffs

Ps as dose just pointed out.

None of this would be even an issue if the border was in the sea


But the DUPs ‘Britishness’ is threatened by some cows going back and forth over the Irish Sea.

You couldn’t make it up.

downcow

downcow wrote: »

Deleted post.

Like when the UK asked for the backstop to cover the entire UK and the EU said "OK"?

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

You mean when the EU assented at the UK's request to making the back-stop UK-wide, that kind of flexibility and bending over and then having it rammed back in your face , is that the kind of thing you are on about ?

PS : The EXCEEDINGLY short memories of many in the UK in senior roles conveniently forgetting eaten bread like this is precisely why there is no time limit on the back stop and why our current government is effectively one of national unity on this issue.

Johnson and Hunt are spinning it as if they merely want a few minor technical adjustments made to the WA, when in fact they effectively want it ripped up and an entirely new agreement to be negotiated.

They are asking no less for the UK to be able to dictate to the EU how it will access the Single Market for the next decade or more and the EU will have to accede to their demands - Britain leaves the EU, with no guarantee whatsoever on the border and it still looking for full tariff free access to the SM.

reslfj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

...The WA negotiations have been over for months, the team have moved on to other things.

All the EU has to do ... wait for the UK to Revoke A50, ratify the WA, or leave with No Deal.

If it likely end in a 'No Deal' Brexit Oct 31. may be an OK timing for the EU.

• The UK's food import is at its highest during late Q4, Q1 and most of Q2
• The world market price on pork is very high (+35-40%) and the demand will high for 24-36 months or more due to African swine fever in China (and Asia).
• High prices on pork will stabilise prices on other animal products and much of the cost for EU27 farming will not happen for some time.
• Booming jobmarkets in North Europe incl Poland can now absorb employees affected by Brexit
• The 7 months extension has made EU businesses much better prepared than they were in March.
• Ireland is much more ready to trade with EU26 including using transport og goods via ships to the continent.

The chaos in most of the EU will not be significant, while several sectors - both public and private - in the UK will fast be very, very hard hit. The EU can't and won't continue to listen to such nonsense as unicorn stories and "Just believe", when the gossip come not just from uneducated ordinary Brexiters , but from the likely new PM, from ministers in HMG and from what is supposed to be the opposition too.

The EU will at some point have to force a solution, and Oct 31. seems as good as any for the EU27 to 'call it a day'

Lars

PS! And a 'no Deal' Brexit will most likely and most wonderfully clear all deceptions in the brain of the new Greek PM and with his voters - very much in the interest of the EU member states as a hole.

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

it will be the defining GE issue and all the parties will want to out-brexit the others.

Which is why the LibDem slogan is "Bollocks to Brexit", and the pro-Remain Green party doubled their vote in the Euros.

ArmaniJeanss

Kate Hoey not to seek re-selection at the next election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/08/pro-brexit-labour-mp-kate-hoey-to-stand-down-at-next-election

Seth Brundle

Economic downturn 'may have begun' in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland's economy may have begun a downturn, research from Ulster Bank has suggested.

The bank conducts a monthly survey of private sector activity in what is considered a reliable indicator of the economy.

It indicated there have been four consecutive months of falling output since March.

The output decline in June was at the steepest rate since November 2012.

The bank's chief economist Richard Ramsey said a clear trend was emerging.

"After six years of growth, it appears that the economic cycle has turned," he said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-48885176

trellheim

Heres that PMI data that Seth's BBC link is on about YEEEK that is awful https://ulstereconomix.com/2019/07/08/downturn-deepens-in-northern-ireland-private-sector/

Pa ElGrande

Mod: Don't dump text here please.

Tacitus Kilgore

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

With Britain gone we have no protection from the German and French duopoly.


European Union: Toward a European Superstate
"The EU is a Sham Democracy"

cool, cool, cool

Professor Moriarty

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

cool, cool, cool

Interesting fact: John Bolton came to Ireland to campaign against the Lisbon Treaty.

Tacitus Kilgore

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Interesting fact: John Bolton came to Ireland to campaign against the Lisbon Treaty.

He has a fierce hard on for a hard brexit alright, scutter like himself and the article above - should be ridiculed to tears, we don't need the lies and nonsense to take over discourse here like it has across the water.

1st dalkey dalkey

So what will happen post a no deal Brexit?

Will the UK economy collapse?

If it does, how long will SNIP last in no.10? If it doesn't, what was all the fuss about?

Bozo is focused on self and personal ambition. A short stay in No. 10 is not part of that ambition.

I think it will be interesting to hear what he has to say after the Tory beauty contest is over.

Playing to his current electorate limits what he can say, but his electorate changes entirely once he has the top job.

Seth Brundle

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

So what will happen post a no deal Brexit?

Will the UK economy collapse?

As most of the UKs existing trade deals are via the EU, these will be gone and the UK will be trading at WTO rates which will make their much needed imports very expensive and their exports at far higher prices that will make the products unaffordable in other countries so therefore export trade will decline.
But apparently this is all a good thing to them.

Nody

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

So what will happen post a no deal Brexit?

No one knows; we can only speculate.

Will the UK economy collapse?

No simply because it takes to much time; however fresh food, medicine etc. are all going to run short quickly, certain radioactive materials will not be available in hospitals or research etc. Remember imports to UK are mainly unaffected but the problem is those trucks are going to have a hard time going back which will greatly reduce the imports possible.

If it does, how long will Bozo last in no.10? If it doesn't, what was all the fuss about?

Depends on what he does; EU has been very clear on what they want and Boris can (as I noted yesterday) try to play the knight in shining armor and sign the deal after a week or two of disruption and claim it as a "short term solution" while he sort things out for example. Or if he does not get any deal then his chances of staying in power will diminish at a rapid pace due to disruption but as no one has been stupid enough to do something like this before it's still very much speculation on how badly and how fast.

Bozo is focused on self and personal ambition. A short stay in No. 10 is not part of that ambition.

This is very true; but if he asks for an extension his card holding party members are likely to vote him out for someone else. That's the issue he's facing, he's damned if he asks for extension but he's also damned if he lets UK crash out. A poisoned chalice which is why many of us (myself included) was surprised they did not have May crash them out and then take over instead.

I think it will be interesting to hear what he has to say after the Tory beauty contest is over.

I care more for action than words esp. from someone like Boris who's got as much self control as Trump when it comes to spouting BS.

Playing to his current electorate limits what he can say, but his electorate changes entirely once he has the top job.

But said electorate are also fiercely anti EU and if he does not deliver there plenty of other wannabie PMs are willing to play the Brexit card to oust him for that reason.

1st dalkey dalkey

Seth Brundle wrote: »

As most of the UKs existing trade deals are via the EU, these will be gone and the UK will be trading at WTO rates which will make their much needed imports very expensive and their exports at far higher prices that will make the products unaffordable in other countries so therefore export trade will decline.
But apparently this is all a good thing to them.

This would suggest something close to collapse in the event of a no deal.

But a collapsed economy will surely lead to political oblivion for Bozo in relatively short order.

I just don't think that is his plan for himself.

I strongly suspect that his rhetoric will change entirely once he has the top job secured and am actually looking forward to see how he extricates himself from his past utterings. Not that he would be in the slightest embarrassed by a U turn, no matter how blatant.

He can give the English Tories what they want, a backstop free Brexit, but only at the expense of 10 DUP votes. Can he find replacements for those votes?

Seth Brundle

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

This would suggest something close to collapse in the event of a no deal.

With no trade deals with the EU or any other countries (bar a few such as the Faroe Islands) how else will they manage to import and export?

eagle eye

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Britain stands as a stark example of what happens when you try to leave the EU.

Well this is what we haven't find out yet. There are all sorts of predictions from all sides as to how it will go.
The big question is if the EU will survive this.
If there isn't an apocalypse in the UK on two or three years you may see others follow them out the door.

1st dalkey dalkey

"But said electorate are also fiercely anti EU "

The electorate in the leadership vote are all party members and are indeed fiercely anti EU.

But once past that election, the overall Tory party is far less fierce in its opposition. Some downright pro EU and a sizeable section anti no deal.

And the country as a whole is almost evenly split, pro and anti EU, with nearly 80% anti no deal.

That is the change in electorate he is thinking of and is highly likely to change his rhetoric and his options.

Water John

Two interesting TV programmes on tonight. Dispatches Channel 4, 8 pm, looks who is trying to shape things behind the scenes in the Tory Party.
This is followed at 8.30 pm by Panorama looking at, are the UK ready to leave the EU without a deal?

Professor Moriarty

eagle eye wrote: »

Well this is what we haven't find out yet. There are all sorts of predictions from all sides as to how it will go.
The big question is if the EU will survive this.
If there isn't an apocalypse in the UK on two or three years you may see others follow them out the door.

EU approval ratings have risen across the EU in the past year. That might not be down to Brexit but Brexit has to be a factor. So, for now, the omens are good for EU survival. I don't think Britain will become a poster boy for exiting the EU anytime soon. In fact, I see Britain becoming a vassal state of the US.

CelticRambler

Seth Brundle wrote: »

With no trade deals with the EU or any other countries (bar a few such as the Faroe Islands) how else will they manage to import and export?

Imports aren't a problem, as long as they respect the WTO rules of fair play, i.e. the same rules/tarifs for everyone.

But, as Nody pointed out, imports have to be physically delivered to the island, usually in trucks or in containers, and many of those service providers may not see the point of sending their assets on one-way journeys. One-way, because the UK's home-grown exports will be decimated by WTO tarifs applied on the one hand, and tarif-free imports killing off domestic production on the other.

Enzokk

Some Brexit news, the Unions seems to have a unified position.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1148274041456930816

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1148279068133122048

They are slowly inching to where they were supposed to be all the time. It is good that they want a second referendum and will campaign for Remain if it is either a no-deal or a Tory deal. But if they are in power they want a crack at leaving the EU and will only decide once they have had a go what to do.

That is still a bad position to take. Labour could still campaign to leave the EU and damage the economy. I am glad they are moving, but it is taking way too long and still there is a possibility that they will want to leave the EU.

I believe the compromise was probably to get Len McCluskey on board with a common position as is why it is still a terrible position.

Joe_ Public

It's a welcome move and an interesting one, but doesnt it still beg the question as to what happens when the EU's response is the WAB is not open for renegotiation. Why would its position on that alter just because a Lab government is in place?

Leroy42

Is the threat to Boris any greater than it was for TM? ERG will not want an election without Brexit in the bag as the BP will probably take a lot of their seats

Labour, whilst calling for a GE, have no policy on which to stand so will lose out to both BP and lib dems depending on the voters as they have nothing to offer.

So, IMO, the risk of Johnson being removed is quite slim.