Who Watches the Watchmen (Our Chit Chat Thread)

893bet

If you consider the sheer rate of money printing or quantitive easing or whatever they call it them then prices of tangible luxury goods are only going one way. The bubble burst will at best be a small reduction. More likely a levelling off or a stagnation of prices.

Fitz II

unkel wrote: »

Any chance you can show that graph from about 2005? Or was that particular watch not around then, or even chrono24? For any other highish end watch would do too, maybe just a submariner?

Would be interested to see the effect (if any) of the peak and the recession and the current run up

Here is the ceramic no date and teh pre ceramic no date. Chrono doesnt go back too far.




Here is a cartier Tank Solo...much less dramatic and more flat, shows if you veer off the path into "less desirable" watches your trajectory is flat at best. Every watch has its own trend

Cyclingtourist

Do you guys trust Chrono24's price graphs? Don't they have a vested interest in watch price inflation?

Wibbs

Fitz II wrote: »

Kev they all have lovely bottoms. I agree but we have to live in the present (Wibbs is exempted). Watches are hot at the moment and the number of people collecting is higher than ever. Good solid classics like the SMP, Sub, datejust are solid buys at any time.

That's the point; they're hot at the moment. This does not make them anything like "investment" buys and it's fine to live in the present, but it's not the sharpest to to believe that this is sustainable, or worse to think of "investment" potential. Dealers push this as do those caught up in it, whatever the "it" de jour happens to be.

Now is you got in in 2014 happy days, but back then things were not as they are now, people were not clambouring to get these watches and also there was a deep recession.

Eh we were well coming out of recession in 2014. It was anything but deep(though the Hong Kong market slump caused a big hit to the Swiss industry in the following few years). The clamour for watches is a very recent thing, spread by the interwebs and Swiss brands creeping prices and throttling supply.

Same with a sub no matter when you buy in you are likely to get back your money. Sure there will be variations but over the long term you either buy now or pay more later.

Currently. Ten years ago you wouldn't. You'd get a decent used sale price, but there was no talk of profit or "buy now or pay more later", that is absolutely classic get in now before it's too late or you miss the show bubble thinking.

So far these watches (classic models from well established brands) I dont think you need to find the "next big thing" the next thing will be the current big thing. Recessions, pandemics, tech bubbles dont seem to massively or permanently effect value.

You do realise that making such a pronouncement based on something currently hot and that only has a five year trend is more than a bit of a stretch? Within that five years we've had one pandemic, no recession before it, no tech bubble.

And on the pandemic; Swiss watch exports plunged by nearly 70% last summer. Rolex shut her plants down last March , which of course triggered more panic in the buying market so that will sustain them for a while. The industry took a dive last year and only came back to close to 2019 figures near the end of the year. At a time when men's watches have never been so "hot".

Now Wibbs will tell us about something from the 1970's

No need. The first 15 years of this millennium would suffice. The classic car market would suffice and over a longer period of time. The smaller vintage arena has shown similar over time. Early Rolex went nuts for a time over about five years, then near overnight it just stopped. They barely sell now if you can find one and prices are a quarter of what they were at the peak(even with the current Rolex mania). Same for the issued military watches phase. Went nuts after it was cool hunted, then prices and sales stagnated. fewer and fewer were selling, hanging on to their "investments" or just hanging on because they were actual collectors and figured they'd never find other examples. Now the vintage stuff has one major difference, they're an actually finite supply, so will have a different trajectory because of that. That's why outlets for the industry like Hodinkee are on a never ending quest to mine untapped resources there - quartz week, 1980's week, focuses on non obvious brands etc - until that gets tapped out. Or doesn't take off. They tend to up dealer prices, but auction and forum prices barely move.

Will a steel Rolex ever fall to pocketmoney? Nope, but the current mania in the grey and (barely)used market is almost certainly going to take a hit. It's just a case of when.

Wibbs

redlead wrote: »

Wibbs, I think that one exception to the Rolex bubble is that they have almost ceased to be a watch brand and have become a commodity thats being traded for its value. The brand is just so big in America now. On top of that, Covid has generally only made the type of people that buy watches richer. I really can't see anything changing for a long time with rolex mania.

I'd reckon there's a few years in it, but beyond five I'll be very surprised if things don't go back to pre 2015 levels. It's a small enough market, one that has recently swelled to a wider public, but these things have a strong habit of contracting just as quickly.

Cyclingtourist wrote: »

Do you guys trust Chrono24's price graphs? Don't they have a vested interest in watch price inflation?

Well yes, they do. Never trust a dealer or dealer marketplace on this score, especially if they're pushing the "investment" angle. They're vested in it as you say and are almost never right anyway. Chrono24 has been around since 02/03 IIRC, yet their graphs only go back more ten years. Ask yourself why.

Fitz II

Thanks Wibbs just won a 5 er on a bet .

The vintage car market is a good analogy but only with vintage Porsche, classic unchanging design, (grouping all vintage cars together would be like chucking in Tag in with Rolex,) never been a bad time to buy one of those either, unpoppable bubbles called in equal measure yet to materialise. Actually went mental last recession

Wibbs

Slight problem. As I said: "vintage stuff has one major difference, they're an actually finite supply, so will have a different trajectory because of that". Outside of tiny number's produced special editions which are sold out before they're sold as it were, which is more expensive, a brand new Porsche or a used one of the same model? Are there new lower spec Porsches going for bigger money than top spec in a grey market? Nope, but that's the current Rolex situation.

Porsche used(non vintage) prices have remained very stable. Though in the vintage arena we also see the usual narrative of when the high end air cooled stuff market started to stagnate because of ever increasing prices and lack of supply and lack of buyers willing to spend large we saw people/dealers/commentators look to previously less interesting models to keep stoking the market.

Also note the date 2014 when you reckon we were deep in recession(we weren't) and look at the price of air cooled Porsches go vertical. Around the same time as some Swiss brands. Stuff like big ticket handbags also started to climb. Also note when the actual recession hit they trended up and then stayed flat for a couple of years, then a similar blip up in '11, but the real climb starts in '13/14.

As I've always said I don't see a bubble bursting in the sense of Rolex(and other brands) suddenly becoming worthless, or anything like it, but the market is pretty clearly in a "bubble" concerning the grey market and talk of investment returns and current models that are still being made and made in their many thousands, even with Rolex throttling the supply.

Wibbs

Oh and as for the classic air cooled Porsche trend. A slight tailing off of the Porsche 911 market has turned into a landslide during lockdown. We take a look at some air-cooled Porsche prices to see which models have been hit the most.

As seen in the downward trend the actually rare and always desirable stuff has remained relatively stable as is nearly always the case unless fashions radically change(or the generational buyers die off). All the rest have taken a correction. That's what always happens in any collecting market. When there is a sudden upswing in interest and wider mainstream buy in and prices rapidly climb, then the "investors" come aboard, there comes a point of plateau and then a price correction. There isn't single example you can point to where this did not happen and the faster the climb the faster this happens. Again, that's in a market with an actually finite supply of goods. We're seeing the same thing now in new goods being currently produced . The brands like Rolex are making it look like it's a finite market(Omega do similar with their special editions). That's even more faddy and prone to correction. Remember care bears prices going mad.

Fitz II

Wibbs wrote: »

Oh and as for the classic air cooled Porsche trend. A slight tailing off of the Porsche 911 market has turned into a landslide during lockdown. We take a look at some air-cooled Porsche prices to see which models have been hit the most.

As seen in the downward trend the actually rare and always desirable stuff has remained relatively stable as is nearly always the case unless fashions radically change(or the generational buyers die off). All the rest have taken a correction. That's what always happens in any collecting market. When there is a sudden upswing in interest and wider mainstream buy in and prices rapidly climb, then the "investors" come aboard, there comes a point of plateau and then a price correction. There isn't single example you can point to where this did not happen and the faster the climb the faster this happens. Again, that's in a market with an actually finite supply of goods. We're seeing the same thing now in new goods being currently produced . The brands like Rolex are making it look like it's a finite market(Omega do similar with their special editions). That's even more faddy and prone to correction. Remember care bears prices going mad.

So then, what models are the best Rolex that will hold their value, are a lot of the worse air cooled porsche not the OP;s and datejusts of the range? Anyway we are not talking vintage. Can you really see a time where a Sub bought today will be worth less than you paid for it tomorrow?

Wibbs

Fitz II wrote: »

Can you really see a time where a Sub bought today will be worth less than you paid for it tomorrow?

Six years ago Fitz and for all of the model's history. The current time is the outlier, not the norm. Always look to the norm for trends, not the outliers. Ignore dealers and vested interest commentators like your man up in Belfast. They're talking rot.

We can even see that in the mechanical watch itself within the collector enthusiast market. The "quartz crisis" hit it hard, but that was actually the outlier(and it most hit the cheap everyday watches). Mechanical watches still held quite a bit of favour at the upper end, or many brands like PP, AP, Omega, Longines, Rolex etc would have gone bust, so it wasn't so much a shock that they'd come back in the luxury end.

A Sub will always hold value, but by how much compared to the exact same model brand new RRP is very much another matter. I could see the Daytona getting hit more down the line, as I think it's in play more for the name than the watch itself in many ways(which is a pity), but that's flip a coin territory on my part. The "entry level" models will be hit the most and as the entry level is the last sector to get attention in a boom time as new buyers get priced out, it's nearly always the sector that gets hit first and hardest. After the panic dies down buyers become fewer and tend to become far more discerning. The top tier vintage models will always stay on top or near to it. Finite market, finite supply. Top shelf stuff always or nearly always holds value unless fashions radically change.

Basically I don't see a "bust", but I do see a major correction of the very current new going for daft money in the grey market area.



Another thing that could hit the current boom in mechanical luxury watches are the servicing costs. They've also gone nuts over the last decade as the Swiss try to squeeze out independents and squeeze all the juice out of the berry. If you're say a young guy who got into it in the last couple of years off the back of Hoodwinkee and the Tube, enjoying the models to buy, chopping and changing as you go and trading up on the back of the curve, when the honeymoon is passing and time comes to service the watches you have it may come as a nasty shock. Enough of one to put off a few. Double that if you got into vintage and find parts can't be had. A few years ago when you could buy a Heuer Bund for 2000, a service from Heuer themselves would run to that, and more if parts were required. Eh...nope. They're another example of a trend. Ten years back 1.5-2K, then went nuts and hit 6-7K, now the dealers have them at 4-6k and nobody is buying and at auction go for more like 3k. IWC as a brand where much bigger 10-20 years ago and now don't get nearly the same love, new or vintage. TAG were the "good watch" for the 90's and into the 00's man on the way up and now... well...

micks_address

Fitz II wrote: »

So then, what models are the best Rolex that will hold their value, are a lot of the worse air cooled porsche not the OP;s and datejusts of the range? Anyway we are not talking vintage. Can you really see a time where a Sub bought today will be worth less than you paid for it tomorrow?

i could see a time when Rolexes drop below retail sure... is that the question?

Fitz II

micks_address wrote: »

i could see a time when Rolexes drop below retail sure... is that the question?

Load of Rolex sell second hand below retail today. Question is can you see a time when your pepsi, batman, sub, daytona, cermits, hulks and the sell for below retail? It would be the first time for many of them in their history they do.

micks_address

Fitz II wrote: »

Load of Rolex sell second hand below retail today. Question is can you see a time when your pepsi, batman, sub, daytona, cermits, hulks and the sell for below retail? It would be the first time for many of them in their history they do.

I could see it yes. Will our kids want watches the same we do? Maybe our kids as we watch nerds but the majority?

Time

micks_address wrote: »

I could see it yes. Will our kids want watches the same we do? Maybe our kids as we watch nerds but the majority?

Those particular watches are timeless classics. So the demand is much less likely to fall than something more out there like Richard Mille.

Fitz II

micks_address wrote: »

I could see it yes. Will our kids want watches the same we do? Maybe our kids as we watch nerds but the majority?

Watches are and have always been niche, but social media and flexing are more popular then ever and the mechanical wristwatch has never in history been so useless, what's going to change?

I suppose the equation changes away from the classics as Time says, much more susceptible to the vagaries of fashion. I can see a lot more danger in the Speedmaster moonwatch than in a submariner, and Rolex control the market so heavily it hard to see what cataclysm will happen to tank the market

Cyrus

Time wrote: »

Those particular watches are timeless classics. So the demand is much less likely to fall than something more out there like Richard Mille.

panerai kindof had this, they were very hot for 5 years or so but not so much now.

Wibbs

Time wrote: »

Those particular watches are timeless classics. So the demand is much less likely to fall than something more out there like Richard Mille.

Timeless classics can also become "boring" too T, if fashions change. The Richard Mille types could be trendy in the future, because they're not the timeless classics. It depends how fashion itself goes of course. We reckon we're in the post modernist period so a major shift in fashions like the modernist 60's and 70's couldn't happen again, though I'm not so sure about that. It could come from a slightly different direction. EG a youth movement that eschews the traditional, the past and embraces the smart watch, or no watch at all. As it is the Apple watch sells more wrist furniture than the entire Swiss industry put together does.

Fitz II wrote: »

Question is can you see a time when your pepsi, batman, sub, daytona, cermits, hulks and the sell for below retail? It would be the first time for many of them in their history they do.

Other than the Batman which was released within the current upward swing, all the others traded below retail, sometimes well below in the case of Daytonas and Subs, before the same current upward swing.

Fitz II wrote: »

Watches are and have always been niche, but social media and flexing are more popular then ever and the mechanical wristwatch has never in history been so useless, what's going to change?

Well the rate of change in social media is high and fast with it. It's a monster that's forever looking to cool hunt and devour what it finds. So at the moment it's anything but niche, but it could go back to niche just as quickly, or the monster will look to different brands and styles than is currently trending and worthy of flexing.

I suppose the equation changes away from the classics as Time says, much more susceptible to the vagaries of fashion. I can see a lot more danger in the Speedmaster moonwatch than in a submariner, and Rolex control the market so heavily it hard to see what cataclysm will happen to tank the market

Their control itself could. The sense of rarity is based on their control and many know it, but go along with it. For the moment. I remember as a kid when Star Wars came out and collecting bubblegum cards was a thing, until one of my mate's dads told him that the very rare cards we all lusted after were only in every few hundred packets to keep you buying and that spread around the school and even as 8 year olds or whatever we got the feeling of unfairness and the trend rapidly died off.

Omega could well screw their Speedies with all the "special editions" they're piling on with. It's their way of doing a Rolex as far as the perception of rarity goes. It's confusing and as the prices for them get ever more daft, I can certainly see the buying public think feck that gimmick for a game of soldiers. I suspect the "basic" Speedy will always be a popular though.

blue5000

One for Wibbs, the repair shop on bbc1 now are restoring a WW1 vintage watch.

Wibbs

Feck and there's me who got rid of my telly years ago.

cnocbui

I have perfectly good, pristine 50" Panasonic Plasma you can have gratis. It only really receives Freesat, but I see that as an advantage.

Wibbs

That's very kind of you good sir. I actually have a Panny plasma myself. Bloody fantastic picture on them and they're getting good money in some quarters because of that. I have it hobbled for receiving TV signals. It was just that a few years back I realised I rarely watched TV any more and pretty much never darkened the door of ArrTeeEee, so why was I paying a licence fee to pay for a wasteful service and largely talentless oiks? So I went streaming and the like. Of course because the RTE junket must be kept afloat they'll bring in a tax to cover that in due course. :rolleyes:

Thirdfox

After all the talk about watches, values, ups and downs - here are some interesting tables and facts (2020 figures).

Any surprises for people?



Richard Mille at no.7 is fun, Zenith down at no.40 is surprising too.

It was interesting to see Lange sandwiched between Mido and Chanel (my point about Patek marketing perhaps?)

I would say the Longines and Tissot placement is heavily influenced by Asian/Chinese demand (天梭 tissot "sky shuttle" and 浪琴 Longines "romantic piano") are hugely recognised and desired in China. Same thing for Titoni - I don't think that brand would have (m)any Irish recognition but it's kinda seen as a fancy Swiss brand in China.

Oh and looking through the group it appears I own watches from the Rolex, Swatch, Richemont and LVMH group - I'm just missing my Gucci from Kering (though perhaps Ulysse Nardin *might* be more to my taste )

Wibbs

Zenith has dropped a lot in the last ten years alright. Hublot climbed. I'm not so surprised at Zenith tbh. While other brands slowly raised their prices Zenith did it overnight in the middle of a product run. No amount of marketing can cover gouging like that. They also had a very lacklustre output with the occasional bright point. Though they had a fantastic history it was mostly in pocketwatches and the very early days of the wristwatch. Really their only known models would be the El Primero and Defy, the former overshadowed by the Daytona(ironies everywhere), the latter trying to be too hip for its own good. They could have "done a Longines" with their Zenith Special pilot watches reimagining, but strayed too far from the original so they looked gimmicky(then doubled down with faux patina) and jumped on the watch must be the size of a dinnerplate trend just as that trend was waning. I've only seen one in the flesh and they're enormous.

I'm still surprised at how many actual Swatch watches are sold. I agree re the Asian market and Longines/Tissot. Longines would be bigger in Latin countries too. AP has climbed in the last ten years. TAG, Breitling and IWC are still hanging in there, but way down on the 90's turn of their century brand awareness. I'm surprised Tudor aren't higher in the rankings.

I'd say a lot of any surprise is coming from being in the watch nutter fraternity. We tend to view many of the brands differently than the average bod or bodess buying a watch in a jewellers or airport duty free.

Cyrus

Wibbs wrote: »

Zenith has dropped a lot in the last ten years alright. Hublot climbed. I'm not so surprised at Zenith tbh. While other brands slowly raised their prices Zenith did it overnight in the middle of a product run. No amount of marketing can cover gouging like that. They also had a very lacklustre output with the occasional bright point. Though they had a fantastic history it was mostly in pocketwatches and the very early days of the wristwatch. Really their only known models would be the El Primero and Defy, the former overshadowed by the Daytona(ironies everywhere), the latter trying to be too hip for its own good. They could have "done a Longines" with their Zenith Special pilot watches reimagining, but strayed too far from the original so they looked gimmicky(then doubled down with faux patina) and jumped on the watch must be the size of a dinnerplate trend just as that trend was waning. I've only seen one in the flesh and they're enormous.

I'm still surprised at how many actual Swatch watches are sold. I agree re the Asian market and Longines/Tissot. Longines would be bigger in Latin countries too. AP has climbed in the last ten years. TAG, Breitling and IWC are still hanging in there, but way down on the 90's turn of their century brand awareness. I'm surprised Tudor aren't higher in the rankings.

I'd say a lot of any surprise is coming from being in the watch nutter fraternity. We tend to view many of the brands differently than the average bod or bodess buying a watch in a jewellers or airport duty free.

still to see that Bregeut, Blancpain and Lange are all well above zenith is a bit of surprise to me, they are far more niche brands imo.

Wibbs

Maybe they have a bigger presence in certain airports and shopping centres around the world?

blue5000

Chanel are overpriced IMHO. Also doesn't Swatch have a hell of big chunk of the market?

Cienciano

Richard Mille at 7. Hublot at 12. Christ.

Throw a decorated ETA into an obnoxious case, triple the markup and sponsor the premier league = win. Reminds me of Grey Goose Vodka. The guy who marketed it said it's bog standard vodka, he just put it at 4 times the price because people see it as premium then. OK, not quite the same, but not a mile off.

Cienciano

Shout out to Panerai, they have 1 watch (don't list models, they have 1 watch :pac:) and managed top 20!

Them and richard mille goes to show if a distinct design becomes popular what can happen.

Wibbs

Swatch does, though all it's companies together are not that much more ahead of Rolex on its own. On the other hand Apple sold more watches in the first quarter of 2020 alone than both Rolex and Swatch put together and their yearly sales in the middle of the pandemic grew and topped out at 34 million watches sold. Absolutely dwarfing the Swiss output. It's certainly not the quartz crisis all over again as many people have both a smart watch and a luxury watch, but the uptake of the smart watch, especially with Apple's worldwide brand recognition and very good marketing and the ability to shift product with big margins on the back of their name(Hans Wilsdorf would have respected Steve Jobs) could impact them in the longterm. The Swiss tried their own smart watches and they died a death. They seem to have no clue about the market, just like back in the quartz crisis where they completely missed how digital watches would come to decimate them.

lfc200

Have a Jorg Gray 6500 commemorative edition that was given as a present to me a number of years ago. Haven’t worn it in probably 7 years so looking to sell, anyone here a feel on what it would be worth?