Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

RobertKK

The UK needs to find a way to undo the mess they are in.

There is nothing good about Brexit. It is a bad state of affairs when the island with a much smaller population has more power than the island with a much bigger population and a military might. This is where we are now with Brexit, Ireland one of the countries deciding the fate of the UK and when they leave the EU.

The big three powers based on economies and population will continue to be the US, the EU and China. The EU is a world leading soft power and trade area.The UK is going to have less power in the world, less power with less control and relevance.
They really need another referendum to undo their mess, or just leave soon. We need this resolved as soon as possible.
Instead it is 'we said we would do it and we will' despite all the evidence that it is really really bad, that is just woeful leadership.

Varta

RobertKK wrote: »

The UK needs to find a way to undo the mess they are in.

There is nothing good about Brexit. It is a bad state of affairs when the island with a much smaller population has more power than the island with a much bigger population and a military might. This is where we are now with Brexit, Ireland one of the countries deciding the fate of the UK and when they leave the EU.

The big three powers based on economies and population will continue to be the US, the EU and China. The EU is a world leading soft power and trade area.The UK is going to have less power in the world, less power with less control and relevance.
They really need another referendum to undo their mess, or just leave soon. We need this resolved as soon as possible.
Instead it is 'we said we would do it and we will' despite all the evidence that it is really really bad, that is just woeful leadership.

I don't agree that what you describe is a 'bad' state of affairs. The UK must go on Friday. The stage is set; they have voted not to accept No Deal, so all the EU has to do is refuse the extension and it's May's Deal or No Deal and, as they cannot have No Deal, May's Deal goes through. It is in the EU's hands now to push through the deal that they negotiated with the UK by simply doing nothing today.

10000maniacs

Laois_Man wrote: »

To my much overused post on Boards....

Well have a look at what the Leave voters were actually told what they were voting for (BY THE LEAVE CAMPAIGNERS)

We now have Tory Owen Patterson on Politics Live after being played a video from 4 years ago saying that he would favour a single market scenario through membership of EFTA now saying "Since then we have had the referendum and that changes everything. Whatever I said before the referendum has been superseded by the absolute promise to deliver to respect the votes of the 17.4 million." :rolleyes:
Even at this late stage, these guys are still churning out this rubbish.

VinLieger

Varta wrote: »

I don't agree that what you describe is a 'bad' state of affairs. The UK must go on Friday. The stage is set; they have voted not to accept No Deal, so all the EU has to do is refuse the extension and it's May's Deal or No Deal and, as they cannot have No Deal, May's Deal goes through. It is in the EU's hands now to push through the deal that they negotiated with the UK by simply doing nothing today.

The vote to not accept No Deal means absolutely nothing unless they also vote to agree to May's Deal. Currently if nobody does anything come Friday they are out of the EU with No Deal and it is definitely not up to the EU to push anything through, they have done their job and negotiated the deal in good faith it is up to the UK parliament to now agree what they want as the vote to not accept No Deal is simply them agreeing what they do not want.

The only thing the EU can do now is agree to an extension but the UK must also then agree to whatever terms the EU sets to that extension.

AdamD

AllForIt wrote: »

Ok. Let's have a vote on one thing today, get a result, and have another vote tomorrow, and get a different result the next day. And the day after that.

That's what your saying basically, isn't it. Review to death.

How many times do you think it's ethical to review the democratic vote?

Until you get the answer you want is what I suspect. As long as it's done democratically as you say.

Edit: I find your point utterly absurd. It would make some sense if Brexit happened but your suggesting to overturn something that hasn't even happened yet. How do you democratically overturn something that hasn't happened. Can you not wait for it to happen before you 'democratically' reverse the decision.

Perhaps if the vote is getting different outcomes each day, the process isn't fit for purpose.

Leroy42

I would have been very much in the no further extensions camp (even prior to the last extension) but the feeling very much to me at this stage is that Brexit is starting to fall apart within the UK.

They have already managed to get the likes of JRM and Johnson to vote for this deal, and the recent public utterances from the likes of Francois would appear to suggest that they realise the game is almost up.

However, on the other side to that is the likely replacement of TM as PM and what that would mean, however, that is always going to happen so not sure that difference it actually makes.

It might be, as Barnier pointed out again yesterday, that even in a No Deal scenario the 1st items on any future negotiation would be the 3 items within the WA and having someone like Johnson or Raab flounder against the very same reality rocks as TM has might be the final nail in the coffin.

As others have pointed out, a delay may lead to a softer brexit, no extension guarantees a hard brexit. There are of course others issues with a further extension, and I am pretty certain the likes of Ireland would not be being given the same space, but more and more, at least from my reading of it, in the UK are coming around to the fact that Brexit really is a bad idea.

Varta

Leroy42 wrote: »

I would have been very much in the no further extensions camp (even prior to the last extension) but the feeling very much to me at this stage is that Brexit is starting to fall apart within the UK.

They have already managed to get the likes of JRM and Johnson to vote for this deal, and the recent public utterances from the likes of Francois would appear to suggest that they realise the game is almost up.

However, on the other side to that is the likely replacement of TM as PM and what that would mean, however, that is always going to happen so not sure that difference it actually makes.

It might be, as Barnier pointed out again yesterday, that even in a No Deal scenario the 1st items on any future negotiation would be the 3 items within the WA and having someone like Johnson or Raab flounder against the very same reality rocks as TM has might be the final nail in the coffin.

As others have pointed out, a delay may lead to a softer brexit, no extension guarantees a hard brexit. There are of course others issues with a further extension, and I am pretty certain the likes of Ireland would not be being given the same space, but more and more, at least from my reading of it, in the UK are coming around to the fact that Brexit really is a bad idea.

There will still be far too many of them that think it is a good idea. They have to go, for at least ten years. If the EU sit on their hands today the UK will leave with May's deal. Unfortunately, the EU won't do that because their goal is to keep the UK in the EU. A big mistake IMHO.

seamus

^^ (In response to Leroy)
Indeed, to a certain extent one might say that the WA came a little bit too late. And since then it's become a bun fight within the UK about renegotiating and demanding and going back and certainty that the EU will cave.

It's only as Brexit day approached and the EU proved that it's not for turning, that reality started to bite in the UK.

Perhaps a lengthier extension, coupled with the continued re-affirmation that the WA is the only game in town, will give the UK the space to actually work this out?

Though it's equally likely based on past form, that a longer extension will just be squandered fighting about how the PM should renegotiate the WA.

DrumSteve

Listening to PMQ's... Its all a big pantomime really isn't it?

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It looks like the Conservatives are heading from bad to worse. James Kanagasooriam who was instrumental in leading the data-driven approach of the Scottish Conservatives in 2017 was commissioned to investigate why the Tories are unpopular with the youth. From the Independent:



I'd find the whole "Party of opportunity" thing a lot more convincing if the Tories had leaders who actually embodied it instead of privileged Etonians. Barring May of course who didn't attend Eton but did attend Oxford.

I imagine you are talking more broadly about the senior people in the party but the last leader before Cameron who went to Eton was Alec Douglas-Home in the 60s.

Grammar school then to Oxford is more typical.

Rjd2

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It looks like the Conservatives are heading from bad to worse. James Kanagasooriam who was instrumental in leading the data-driven approach of the Scottish Conservatives in 2017 was commissioned to investigate why the Tories are unpopular with the youth. From the Independent:



I'd find the whole "Party of opportunity" thing a lot more convincing if the Tories had leaders who actually embodied it instead of privileged Etonians. Barring May of course who didn't attend Eton but did attend Oxford.

I don't really know how the tories really evolve, UK is still relatively right wing, so their is that. May is pretty everything that they need to ignore however. She is an authoritarian, big government, libertarian hating Nativist who like many in her front bench think politics peaked with Tony Blair.

Best of luck with that.

Zubeneschamali

RobertKK wrote: »

We need this resolved as soon as possible.

The UK needs it resolved, perhaps, but there is no rush on the EU to see it resolved, especially if the resolution is a colossally expensive mess like No Deal.


We can tip along, poaching foreign investment off the UK because of uncertainty for 20 years if it comes to that.

lawred2

Big government libertarian? Is that not somewhat a contradiction in terms?

Edit... Ooops my mistake - 'libertarian hating' it was

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The UK needs it resolved, perhaps, but there is no rush on the EU to see it resolved, especially if the resolution is a colossally expensive mess like No Deal.


We can tip along, poaching foreign investment off the UK because of uncertainty for 20 years if it comes to that.

There is the thinking that now is the time of maximum pressure on the brexiteers. They are faced with WA or possibly no brexit.

Giving them an additional extension, particularly if it is a longer one, will remove this pressure and allow the Tories to focus on internal power struggles rather than facing up to the realities of brexit. This could, if say Johnson were made PM, have the effect of almost starting the whole thing again.

So, the thinking is that forcing the UK to make a decision now will result in the WA being passed rather than the hope that revokes happens in the future but which carries with it the very real, and IMO increasing, likelihood of a No Deal Brexit.

Russman

[QUOTE=seamus;109896698
Though it's equally likely based on past form, that a longer extension will just be squandered fighting about how the PM should renegotiate the WA.[/QUOTE]

I really fear this will be the outcome, as it seems the hard core over there (including the DUP), just don't get it.

Enzokk

I am not sure if this has been posted but here is the letter from Donald Tusk to the other EU leaders and the extension request.

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1115756171913199625







Basically, the conditions on an extension would be for a year, to pass Theresa May's deal as the WA will not be open for re-negotiation. There would also not be discussions on the future relationship other than the PD. This would only be for a year as projects will need to be decided on by the EU around that time. If the extension is agreed then the UK will also participate in good faith in the EU and not do as JRM has suggested.

lobbylad

What are folks opinions on a potential Customs Union giving Ireland a strengthened hand in europe?

Should the UK leave on a Customs Union, whatever they decide to call it, then they will still have to take the rules/regulations of the EU, but will no longer have a seat at the table where decisions are made.

As the only other english speaking nation, and with an economy that's aligned with that in the UK, and similarly structured, could we end up speaking for both ourselves and potentially the interests of the UK? ie any considerations of the UK will be funneled through us?

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

Provisions included in the constitution are directly effective and can be invoked in the courts.

Just to give an example of that, I think, wasn't there a case of someone asking the High Court to allow his divorce so he could remarry under the recently passed Divorce ref, but before the enabling legislation had been put through?

Not sure of the result though. I think one of the parties was terminally ill.

AdamD

What is the point of allowing an extension whilst also saying the WA is not and will not be open to change?

Nate--IRL--

AdamD wrote: »

What is the point of allowing an extension whilst also saying the WA is not and will not be open to change?

So the UK can get its **** together, eventually.

Nate

ancapailldorcha

AdamD wrote: »

What is the point of allowing an extension whilst also saying the WA is not and will not be open to change?

To give the British government time to implement an actual solution, ie cancelling the damn thing with a People's Vote.

BarryD2

Be interesting to see what Labour do in next couple of days assuming UK get a Flextension. They'll have to decide quickly whether they can get their demands on Brexit or not. If they spin it out at all but don't get their bottom lines, May will then turn and blame them for the UK having to hold EU elections etc.

If they get their demands, good chance the Tories will split anyway. So logic says Labour will pull out, having been seen to make a modicum of effort and let the Tories hang, knowing there's a long extension.

Tell me how

BarryD2 wrote: »

Be interesting to see what Labour do in next couple of days assuming UK get a Flextension. They'll have to decide quickly whether they can get their demands on Brexit or not. If they spin it out at all but don't get their bottom lines, May will then turn and blame them for the UK having to hold EU elections etc.

If they get their demands, good chance the Tories will split anyway. So logic says they pull out, having been seen to make a modicum of effort and let them hang?

They should get busy planning an election manifesto. Hard to see May staying or the government lasting now.

They'd be in a perfect position if the country wanted to leave, they could play the obstructionist May and their willingness to contribute to the process then, but the problem for them is a growing cohort of their base are realising the wannabe emperors who were promising all sorts before the referendum were stark naked.

McGiver

Leroy42 wrote:

As others have pointed out, a delay may lead to a softer brexit, no extension guarantees a hard brexit. There are of course others issues with a further extension, and I am pretty certain the likes of Ireland would not be being given the same space, but more and more, at least from my reading of it, in the UK are coming around to the fact that Brexit really is a bad idea.

UK politicians or UK electorate?

Latest YouGov poll:
No deal - 44%
Remain - 42%
Don't know - 13%

Albeit in the same poll when the question was asked differently:
2nd ref - 37%
No deal - 26%
Norway Brexit - 12%
May's deal - 11%
Don't know - 13%

44% for no deal when offered a choice between remain and crash out is insane state of things IMHO.

MrMusician18

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

To give the British government time to implement an actual solution, ie cancelling the damn thing with a People's Vote.

A people's vote would only be advisory, not binding.

Laois_Man

lobbylad wrote: »

What are folks opinions on a potential Customs Union giving Ireland a strengthened hand in europe?

Should the UK leave on a Customs Union, whatever they decide to call it, then they will still have to take the rules/regulations of the EU, but will no longer have a seat at the table where decisions are made.

As the only other english speaking nation, and with an economy that's aligned with that in the UK, and similarly structured, could we end up speaking for both ourselves and potentially the interests of the UK? ie any considerations of the UK will be funneled through us?

It doesn't strengthen our hand - The EU aren't gonna give a fek about the UK's concerns after they're gone! And I am not sure what you mean by saying the Ireland/UK economies are aligned - they're not really!

ancapailldorcha

MrMusician18 wrote: »

A people's vote would only be advisory, not binding.

This isn't the point.

Politicians cower before cries of 17.4 million people voting for Brexit. Few have the spine to stand up to this. Another referendum either cements the 2016 vote from a political standpoint or solves the dilemma faced by the MP's who care enough about their country not to plunge it into economic ruin based on a nebulous mandate based on unicorns from a referendum that was held nearly three years ago by giving them a mandate to cancel Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

McGiver wrote: »

UK politicians or UK electorate?

Latest YouGov poll:
No deal - 44%
Remain - 42%
Don't know - 13%

Albeit in the same poll when the question was asked differently:
2nd ref - 37%
No deal - 26%
Norway Brexit - 12%
May's deal - 11%
Don't know - 13%

44% for no deal when offered a choice between remain and crash out is insane state of things IMHO.

We know where the first simplistic binary referendum got us.

Enzokk

McGiver wrote: »

UK politicians or UK electorate?

Latest YouGov poll:
No deal - 44%
Remain - 42%
Don't know - 13%

Albeit in the same poll when the question was asked differently:
2nd ref - 37%
No deal - 26%
Norway Brexit - 12%
May's deal - 11%
Don't know - 13%

44% for no deal when offered a choice between remain and crash out is insane state of things IMHO.

Be careful of those polling numbers, it very much depends on how the question is asked to get to the numbers. The numbers for no-deal was in the situation where the EU was not offering any more extensions and the deadline was upon the UK. In that scenario then 44% of people would take no-deal. That doesn't mean that 44% of people want no-deal to happen.

The second numbers you posted is probably closer to what people want and in that scenario people don't want no-deal at all.

You can see an explanation from the YouGov here,

Post 7099

Laois_Man

McGiver wrote: »

UK politicians or UK electorate?

Latest YouGov poll:
No deal - 44%
Remain - 42%
Don't know - 13%

Albeit in the same poll when the question was asked differently:
2nd ref - 37%
No deal - 26%
Norway Brexit - 12%
May's deal - 11%
Don't know - 13%

44% for no deal when offered a choice between remain and crash out is insane state of things IMHO.

It's irrelevant. The exact working of the top poll, dates March 31st was:

And if Britain has not agreed a deal by April 12th
and the European Union refused to grant a
further extension, what do you think should
happen?

Europe isn't going to refuse an extension, therefore they are not the only options.

I will restate my personal position however.....they are not ready for a crash out....so let them do it....and they will come back in a significantly weakened position. All of these extensions are giving them the opportunity (if they're capable of taking it) to get more ready and weakening the EUs position.