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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,088 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    People won't talk openly about something that is so divisive. What is to be gained by arguing with a remain voting colleague?

    During a similar period of tumult in Irish politics, the bailout, it was barely talked about in the office.

    I agree though, the UK political system is broken, but that's largely due to the way they elect their politicians.

    This.

    Unless you are in a known group of people who agree with you it really won't get talked about. If you are with like minded people then you'll get into a good rant about the other side, but that's about it.

    They certainly are not going to be opening up easily to a foreigner from the EU if they are a brexiteer.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,825 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Headshot wrote: »
    May should really give parliament 2 options back her deal or she'll put it to a peoples vote, remain or her deal

    ERG will vote for deal in droves

    She needs to pass legislation for a People's Vote and currently, it's unknown if there is enough MP's to vote such legislation through. She could try to bluff but she doesn't seem skilled enough to do that.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 886 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    It's a very weird situation with both the leaders of the Conservatives and Labour lacking the characteristics needed to gather a majority behind them that would pull the divided house together.

    It's just painful to watch as both of them flounder and spend all their time on internal party politics.

    May never really seems to have assumed the role of PM. She's still the Tory leader and never really grew beyond that.

    Corbyn meanwhile is the leader of one faction in the Labour Party. He doesn't seem like a shadow PM either.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,375 ✭✭✭✭kunst nugget


    That is all we talked about day in and out, hell still comes up here and there

    There was clear divisions in the office over the abortion referendum and there was little to no talking about it at the time as it was so divisive and at the end of the day, we still had to be civil and work with each other. I'd imagine Brexit would have the same effect for many offices.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,827 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    Andrew Bridgen on RTE radio now still saying that Britain will get a 10 year grace period due to 24-GATT where they would continue to trade on current EU terms. The only thing is all EU27 countries and 164 WTO countries have a veto on Article 24-GATT being implemented.
    Why didn't Sean O'Rourke challenge him on this?
    He probably still thinks he is entitled to an Irish passport because he is from the UK.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,528 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    There was clear divisions in the office over the abortion referendum and there was little to no talking about it at the time as it was so divisive and at the end of the day, we still had to be civil and work with each other. I'd imagine Brexit would have the same effect for many offices.

    I think that is definitely part of it, but I also think that many people simple don't really understand it.

    Whilst the abortion debate had people very clearly divided based on particular beliefs etc, I think many of the people in the UK have their position based on a lack of information. And that is true on both sides.

    You only have to listen to the MP's, whose job it actually is to know this stuff, to see the level of ignorance to the complexities of the issue they face. Any 'conversation' is nothing more than a rehase of a series of headlines and cliches that they have picked up.

    There is little understanding of the real issues. Even on here, we get posters like last night claiming Art 62 is the new saviour, which even if it was (its not) it still doesn't get the UK any closer to the trade deal that they all (even the likes of JRM, Davies, Johnson) accept they need with the EU. Simply ripping up an agreement is not going to get you where you want to go.

    The QT audience is a reflection of this. The more bombastic and simplistic the response from a panel member the more applause they get. If a panelist tries to dig deeper, to discuss the deep issues, they are lost.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Infini wrote: »
    Many think they wont but right now only an A50 withdrawal by parliment will end this but it can only happen if the choice is given to them. If they go on bìtching between thmnselves they crash out by default wether they like it or not.


    The wonderful thing about A50 revocation is that it is really simple and quick. One vote in Parliament instructing the PM, letter to the EU 1 minute before the Brexit deadline, job done.


    They could do it in 30 minutes flat on the 29th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,528 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Andrew Bridgen on RTE radio now still saying that Britain will get a 10 year grace period due to 24-GATT where they would continue to trade on current EU terms. The only thing is all EU27 countries and 164 WTO countries have a veto on Article 24-GATT being implemented.
    Why didn't Sean O'Rourke challenge him on this?
    He probably still thinks he is entitled to an Irish passport because he is from the UK.

    My own view on why the media is not bringing these people up on this is that it creates GIFs, tweets and YouTube videos. That and even if O'Rourke was to show him the definitive legal advice from the AG Francois would simply claim it all a conspiracy and that the lawyer was a remainer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Tropheus wrote: »
    they largely don't have any interest and seem to feel it will sort itself out without any impact on them.


    They may be quite right, and this is just chaos at Westminster which will eventually sort itself out. Brexit might proceed in an orderly manner per the WA, or might be cancelled.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    VinLieger wrote: »
    Basically is there any point to them staying at this stage?


    I think it is now quite clear that Brexit is and always has been a bloody stupid idea.


    Of course there is a point in not doing bloody stupid things.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,365 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    This is an analysis, by Peter Walker, of the amendments put forward today. Most of them won't be adopted but I could see B, E and H being put forward. Whichever ones are chosen, they will certainly test party unity in both main parties.

    A. Plaid Cymru amendment. This amendment, signed by Plaid’s four MPs, calls for a delay to Brexit until 2021, and a second referendum at the end of this.

    B. Ruling out a second referendum. Signed by more than 100 MPs, mainly Conservative but also Labour’s Caroline Flint and Gareth Snell, this states that “the result of the 2016 EU referendum should be respected and that a second EU referendum would be divisive and expensive, and therefore should not take place”.

    C. Revoke article 50. Put forward by the SNP’s Angus Brendan MacNeil and Tory remainer Ken Clarke, and signed by about 30 other MPs, this calls for the entire Brexit process to be cancelled.

    D. Lib Dem second referendum plan. Tabled by the the Lib Dems’ 11 MPs, this also calls for a Brexit delay and a second referendum.

    E. Labour amendment. Led by Jeremy Corbyn, this notes the rejection by parliament of May’s Brexit plan, and of no deal, and says the government should “provide parliamentary time for this house to find a majority for a different approach”.

    G. The Chope amendment Tabled by Conservative Brexiter and regular malcontent Christopher Chope – and signed only by him – it says Brexit should be delayed for two months “for the specific purpose of replacing the UK negotiating team”.

    F. SNP/Plaid second referendum plan. Yet another extension/second referendum amendment, this also calls for remain to be an option in the referendum, and for the revocation of article 50 to be possible in the interim.

    H. Cross-party request for second referendum Tabled by ex-Tory Sarah Wollaston, now of the Independent Group, and signed by around 30 MPs, this seeks a delay for a new referendum, which would have remain as an option. Could be selected by Bercow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,528 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Jebus, Amendment E, the Labour amendment. Is that really the best they have at this stage?

    Its up there with "Is there anything to be said for saying another Mass"


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭joe40


    The really divisive nature of UK politics is such that a general election will not act as a defacto referendum since there is deep division within the main parties on the topic.
    I'm far from a political expert but I think there is a chance Mays deal will pass if erg and leave labour MP are faced with delays or no deal in reality.
    This probably would be the best outcome.
    Although there was many flaws in the 2016 referendum, there was a general election to reverse things and the triggering of A50 was passed by a large majority.
    This is a mess but the British electorate and HoC have to take responsibility.

    I do have an awful lot of sympathy for the large number of remain voters but hard to see how the UK could be a fully functioning partner in the EU.

    I would actually love to be wrong, but that is my sense of things


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,657 ✭✭✭Whatsisname


    Tropheus wrote: »
    I''ve been working in Newcastle for a couple of days a week for the past few months.

    What amazes me is how the vast majority of people in the UK are completely disengaged from this. There is absolutely no disucsion here in the office. If this was happening in the Dail, it would be the main topic of conversation in workplaces across the country.

    People just seem sick of it. Any mention of Brexit in a social setting gets a glazed look and a quick change of subject. People are sick of it and largely don't seem to get the complexities or want to try and understand them. Yes, it's reproted in the media and the infomration is there if people want it, but they largely don't have any interest and seem to feel it will sort itself out without any impact on them.

    I was on a conference call with a few UK colleagues yesterday morning. In the lull before it started, I said "I see Brexit is doing well". One of them replied, "is it, that's good". I theny said "going well, not". They then replied "oh, ok".

    There is something very broken here in the UK and it's not going to be sorted quickly. I can see this division going on for a generation at least.

    Been working here in Manchester for over a year now, and I'd agree with you. Everyones just fed up of it in the office and nobody really talks about it, I've had a few conversations about it with one of the guys when we go out for a smoke but even he's stated, he didn't vote, for the fact he didn't know enough about either side, and said if there was a second referendum, he probably wouldn't vote again as he feels it's one big broken system as it is. Whether thats right or wrong, thats probably another conversation.

    But definitely feel the same as you, there is something off about the attitude of everyone to it over here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,126 ✭✭✭funkey_monkey


    This is an analysis, by Peter Walker, of the amendments put forward today. Most of them won't be adopted but I could see B, E and H being put forward. Whichever ones are chosen, they will certainly test party unity in both main parties.

    Which out of B or H have any possibility of passing?


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,124 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The wonderful thing about A50 revocation is that it is really simple and quick. One vote in Parliament instructing the PM, letter to the EU 1 minute before the Brexit deadline, job done.


    They could do it in 30 minutes flat on the 29th.
    Would this actually pass?
    Given that nigh on 50% voted last night to keep a no-deal on the table I think the thought of a revocation of Art 50 would make them vote against this.
    I think it is now quite clear that Brexit is and always has been a bloody stupid idea.


    Of course there is a point in not doing bloody stupid things.
    We've had two years of this stupidity and yet a large proportion of the HoC still demand a Brexit in some shape or form.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,779 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    I think it is now quite clear that Brexit is and always has been a bloody stupid idea.


    Of course there is a point in not doing bloody stupid things.


    I completely agree its stupid however is there any point in them staying if the people behind this will just keep pushing their twisted agendas considering how easily the british media and public seem to allow themselves to be lied to and choose to believe those lies?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,744 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Tropheus wrote: »
    What amazes me is how the vast majority of people in the UK are completely disengaged from this. There is absolutely no disucsion here in the office. If this was happening in the Dail, it would be the main topic of conversation in workplaces across the country.

    That's the difference between a country that is (and always has been) ruled by an elite, and a true democratic/republic nation. The people are disengaged by design - FPTP means the opinion of close to half of them is regularly ignored.
    joe40 wrote: »
    Although there was many flaws in the 2016 referendum, there was a general election to reverse things and the triggering of A50 was passed by a large majority.

    Several times I've heard result of the GE 2017 being claimed by Leavers to be a pseudo-ratification of the referendum. No, it wasn't. Again, FPTP and "safe seats" makes a mockery of democracy when there are multiple opinions and preferences within the electorate, and no possibility of getting a parliament that is truly representative of their views. The evidence is right there in the HoC this week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,779 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    That's the difference between a country that is (and always has been) ruled by an elite, and a true democratic/republic nation. The people are disengaged by design - FPTP means the opinion of MORE THAN half of them is regularly ignored.


    FYPFY


    Since the 1950's there has only been one Government elected by a majority of the people and that was the tory/lib dem coalition in 2010


  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    Tropheus wrote: »
    I''ve been working in Newcastle for a couple of days a week for the past few months.

    What amazes me is how the vast majority of people in the UK are completely disengaged from this. There is absolutely no disucsion here in the office. If this was happening in the Dail, it would be the main topic of conversation in workplaces across the country.

    People just seem sick of it. Any mention of Brexit in a social setting gets a glazed look and a quick change of subject. People are sick of it and largely don't seem to get the complexities or want to try and understand them. Yes, it's reproted in the media and the infomration is there if people want it, but they largely don't have any interest and seem to feel it will sort itself out without any impact on them.

    I was on a conference call with a few UK colleagues yesterday morning. In the lull before it started, I said "I see Brexit is doing well". One of them replied, "is it, that's good". I theny said "going well, not". They then replied "oh, ok".

    There is something very broken here in the UK and it's not going to be sorted quickly. I can see this division going on for a generation at least.

    I have a friend who is a strong leaver and we agree that we see things very differently so rather than repeating the discussions / arguments of the past we skip over it. I met him a couple of weeks ago and after a few drinks he attempted to bring it up - I responded by "glazing over" and looking out of the window.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Would this actually pass?
    Given that nigh on 50% voted last night to keep a no-deal on the table I think the thought of a revocation of Art 50 would make them vote against this.
    I wouldn't put too much store by that vote last night. There were so many factors at play in who voted which way, that you can't really draw any conclusions. Theresa May voted against an amendment to her own motion and then voted against her own motion, thus defeating herself. In light of that, is there any possible view of that vote that doesn't sound like complete lunacy?


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,825 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    A rather good article from BBC news focused on Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy & Poland about the possibility of Article 50 being extended.

    To surmise, as expected France will likely insist on conditions for an extension while Poland and the Netherlands seems to be keen on avoiding no deal and possibly Brexit altogether. The Italians and the Germans seem to be lukewarm about an extension. None of these countries seem likely to grant an extension simply for more party politics in the UK, however which is heartening to read.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,447 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    VinLieger wrote: »
    FYPFY


    Since the 1950's there has only been one Government elected by a majority of the people and that was the tory/lib dem coalition in 2010

    Not since 1932 has a single party Gov in the UK ben elected by a majority of the popular vote. 1932.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,468 ✭✭✭Oafley Jones


    A rather good article from BBC news focused on Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy & Poland about the possibility of Article 50 being extended.

    To surmise, as expected France will likely insist on conditions for an extension while Poland and the Netherlands seems to be keen on avoiding no deal and possibly Brexit altogether. The Italians and the Germans seem to be lukewarm about an extension. None of these countries seem likely to grant an extension simply for more party politics in the UK, however which is heartening to read.

    I'm still not convinced as to the EU 27 robustness as regards foreign interference seeking to deny an extension. It's an easy goal geopolitically. Seeing the likes of Aaron Banks on "holiday" in Italy atm does nothing to allay my suspicion.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,403 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Can you tell me how an obscure part of the Vienna Convention can be invoked?
    On the topic of international agreements related to cities which start with the letter 'V', there's also the Venice Commission which produced the following document on how to run referendums:

    https://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/?pdf=CDL-INF(2001)010-e

    and particularly Section N:
    Referendums on questions of principle or other generally-worded proposals should be consultative only. While some countries recognise that such referendums may bind parliament in principle, this leads to difficulties of implementation and entails a high risk of political conflicts.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,403 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    the possibility of Article 50 being extended.
    Farage, Banks and others have been visiting right and far-right governments around Europe to encourage them to veto an extension:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/brexiters-lobby-for-european-veto-of-article-50-extension

    So much for "taking back control".


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,825 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I'm still not convinced as to the EU 27 robustness as regards foreign interference seeking to deny an extension. It's an easy goal geopolitically. Seeing the likes of Aaron Banks on "holiday" in Italy atm does nothing to allay my suspicion.

    The EU27 will vote based on their own interests, not those of Arron Banks or Nigel Farage. Their Eurosceptics might share some common ground but, unlike the UK they won't vote against their own interests simply because Farage asked them to.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,088 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Now suggesting that they will have a third go at the same meaningless vote next Tuesday... but could Bercow put a stop to that and not let them? Was hints that he might need to during PMQ's yesterday.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,825 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    robindch wrote: »
    Farage, Banks and others have been visiting right and far-right governments around Europe to encourage them to veto an extension:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/brexiters-lobby-for-european-veto-of-article-50-extension

    So much for "taking back control".

    Yep. British Euroscepticism is a completely hollow ideology based on presenting a disaster capitalist libertarian coup as a working class revolt. I know people in Ireland who've swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,825 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    robinph wrote: »
    Now suggesting that they will have a third go at the same meaningless vote next Tuesday... but could Bercow put a stop to that and not let them? Was hints that he might need to during PMQ's yesterday.

    If he did, the consequences could be explosive. It's supposed to stop the abuse of the Commons by dragging up the same bill over and over again.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



This discussion has been closed.
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