Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Tell me how

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Bercow is no fool. He would have known not selecting the amendment ruling out a 2nd ref would be met with criticism and would have been well prepared to defend his decision.

He's playing senior hurling now given the people behind the proposed amendment.

It's interesting reading on Twitter. All key commentators, Ian Dunt, Laura Keunnesberg etc are just like the rest of us. Looking on in bewilderment without any sense of what the outcome is going to be.

VinLieger

Tell me how wrote: »

He's playing senior hurling now given the people behind the proposed amendment.

It's interesting reading on Twitter. All key commentators, Ian Dunt, Laura Keunnesberg etc are just like the rest of us. Looking on in bewilderment without any sense of what the outcome is going to be.

In fairness Laura K hasnt exactly been on the ball with her reporting and more just has been regurgitating whatever the ERG are talking to her about

Water John

Have stopped watching BBC News, mainly Sky.

Joe_ Public

I quite enjoyed the german reporter who was on politics live today. Said the german public treated brexit as pure entertainment and that bercow was a huge star, like its all taking place in a circus top. Then with beautiful Germanic efficiency, she resoundingly put Andrew neil back in his box when he came in with a cheap shot about the german economy.

Infini

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Bercow is no fool. He would have known not selecting the amendment ruling out a 2nd ref would be met with criticism and would have been well prepared to defend his decision.

He's a smart man to be fair the delay to A50 pending a 2nd referendum is an obvious way foward and also one the EU would agree an extention to. Ruling out a 2nd vote isnt a way foward and its only being driven by those afraid of the people. They can still vote against the ammendment but I think theyre afraid that it will pass because its a way out and it isolates the DUP and ERG trolls.

robinph

Apparently the Peoples Vote campaign has said that they don't support the amendment that would call for a second referendum because it's not the right time?!?

When is the right time? There are only 8 more days of parliament doing anything to make anything happen before we push ourselves off the cliff.

Professor Moriarty

robinph wrote: »

Apparently the Peoples Vote campaign has said that they don't support the amendment that would call for a second referendum because it's not the right time?!?

When is the right time? There are only 8 more days of parliament doing anything to make anything happen before we push ourselves off the cliff.

There's another amendment planned for the future. Basically it will say that the house approves this deal (whichever deal it is) only if the deal is put to a second referendum.

Metroid diorteM

Bercow in theory could push back on May bringing the same deal for a vote again?

Probably won’t happen but it’s intersting to consider

https://news.sky.com/story/an-ancient-rule-means-bercow-could-take-drastic-action-on-brexit-11664555

ancapailldorcha

Disaster allegedly averted by prudent action from Mr. Bercow:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1106166819671494657?s=09

The EU will need justification to extend A50. Ruling out a second referendum would contradict yesterday's motion.

Labour leadership allowing free vote on 2nd ref. Don't want MPs in Leave majority constituencies breaking away and supporting TM's deal.

Kermit.de.frog

Labour to abstain in vote on 2nd ref.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Labour to abstain in vote on 2nd ref.

Why? That's a disastrous idea.

Shelga

Now the proponents of a second vote are chickening out of voting for a motion to back a people’s vote.

Is this peak Brexit?

Sardonicat

Shelga wrote: »

Now the proponents of a second vote are chickening out of voting for a motion to back a people’s vote.

Is this peak Brexit?

The giant foot is about to squish the lot of em. Shortly followed by the announcement "and now for something completely different! "

If only.

Kermit.de.frog

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Why? That's a disastrous idea.

Labour MPs vulnerable in Leave constituencies.

And according to the Guardian the MPs are going to be whipped to abstain.

What an absolute shambles.

Shelga

If MPs just voted according to their own beliefs and moral values, and not according to the political impact of everything, the situation would be a lot clearer.

Of course, it would have meant May admitting long ago that Brexit is a terrible idea for the UK, in any form.

maynooth_rules

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Labour MPs vulnerable in Leave constituencies.

Its their ****ing countries economic future at stake here. They are elected to determine the best interests of their constituents. If they believe in a 2nd referendum, have the balls to vote for it and then explain that to their constituents.

steddyeddy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Why? That's a disastrous idea.

I can't stand the Tory party. I'm an Irishman through and through but even I'm sickened by their propensity to put party before country. Saying that, Labour have been completely disastrous during Brexit. The party line on Brexit is non-existent an seems to be a mishmash of Euro-scepticism and pro-Europe ideologies.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Labour MPs vulnerable in Leave constituencies.

And according to the Guardian the MPs are going to be whipped to abstain.

What an absolute shambles.

I thought they'd get a free vote so that those in Leave areas could vote it down while those in cities and Remain areas could vote for it.

Pathetic form from the leadership.

Order of this evenings votes. The one at 1715 has the best chance of passing according to the Guardian.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1106200567100174337

Shelga

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Its their ****ing countries economic future at stake here. They are elected to determine the best interests of their constituents. If they believe in a 2nd referendum, have the balls to vote for it and then explain that to their constituents.

Couldn’t agree more. Why is it so difficult for MPs to say: “I can’t in good conscience vote for No Deal, or for May’s deal- both of which I strongly believe will leave this constituency worse off. As the government has been unable to implement a workable Brexit plan, I believe my only choice is to vote for a second referendum. If you still want Brexit, this allows you to vote for it. If you choose not to vote for me at the next General Election because of this, I ask you to consider the position I am in. However, I believe losing my seat is worth it to uphold my values.”

robinph

So as far as I can make out the thinking seems to be keeping tonights vote as simple as possible so that it is only asking for an extension, but not for any specific purpose, so that as many people as possible support it.

Then wait 30 seconds for Tusk/ Barnier to tweet "WFT do you want an extension for you clowns?".

Then once parliament have backed themselves into needing to justify the extension pull the idea of having a referendum out of the hat as if they only just thought of it.

Memnoch

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I thought they'd get a free vote so that those in Leave areas could vote it down while those in cities and Remain areas could vote for it.

Pathetic form from the leadership.

Except it's too early. A defeat for the second referendum now after Labour backing it might make it harder to win the eventual vote on it. Labour aren't in power and can't behave like May, simply bringing the same vote back again and again.

When even Alistair Campbell is saying that this is not yet the time for a vote on the 2nd ref, then that should give you a clue of the lie of the land.

The first step is get a vote for a long delay. The EU will probably then ask for a 2nd ref in order to furnish the same. That's when the vote can be won.

Memnoch

robinph wrote: »

So as far as I can make out the thinking seems to be keeping tonights vote as simple as possible so that it is only asking for an extension, but not for any specific purpose, so that as many people as possible support it.

Then wait 30 seconds for Tusk/ Barnier to tweet "WFT do you want an extension for you clowns?".

Then once parliament have backed themselves into needing to justify the extension pull the idea of having a referendum out of the hat as if they only just thought of it.

Beat me to the punch.

charlie14

At this stage I am not that sure for Ireland`s skge a 2nd referendum is great idea.
It would be a toss of a coin, whereas at least with TM`s deal we know where we stand.
I may be totally off the mark, but after the resounding defeat of the Malthouse amendment last night both the ERG and DUP are weakened and are looking at the possibility of no Brexit in the foreseeable future. The Vienna convention on the backstop opt-out is a fallacy, but I would not be overly surprised, being the charlatans they are, they purposely misread it and back TM`s deal.

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Labour to abstain in vote on 2nd ref.

that's appalling

what an incoherent shambles Labour are

robinph

charlie14 wrote: »

At this stage I am not that sure for Ireland`s skge a 2nd referendum is great idea.
It would be a toss of a coin, whereas at least with TM`s deal we know where we stand.

But would at least be a toss of the coin with a decision at the end of it, assuming they don't have one of the options being lets go back to Brussels and re-negotiate.



It's a disaster either way as far as I'm concerned if it's no deal or Mays deal, but if the country knowingly opts for one of those over remain then so be it and I'll just have to prepare the escape pods. Can you inherit nationality from your children?

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

At this stage I am not that sure for Ireland`s skge a 2nd referendum is great idea.
It would be a toss of a coin, whereas at least with TM`s deal we know where we stand.
I may be totally off the mark, but after the resounding defeat of the Malthouse amendment last night both the ERG and DUP are weakened and are looking at the possibility of no Brexit in the foreseeable future. The Vienna convention on the backstop opt-out is a fallacy, but I would not be overly surprised, being the charlatans they are, they purposely misread it and back TM`s deal.

It is the risk/reward equation again.

IF a second referendum leads to the cancellation of Brexit, then a referendum is a good thing for Ireland.

It also depends on the question asked. Hard Brexit/No Brexit would be hugely risky for Ireland and May's deal would be better while May's Deal/No Brexit would be a win/win for us.

SimonTemplar

To be fair to Labour, People's Vote are advising against that amendment saying today is just about getting an extension and not specifically for a 2nd ref.

eire4

To my mind the idea that there is going to an extension granted before March29th to stop a no deal jump off the cliff exit is far from a sure thing. The biggest problem being what on earth do they want. It is insane that we are here on March 14th and we still do not have an answer to that question but that is the reality. But then again this whole situation is insanity in of itself really.

Shelga

SimonTemplar wrote: »

To be fair to Labour, People's Vote are advising against that amendment saying today is just about getting an extension and not specifically for a 2nd ref.

But the EU is just going to tell parliament that they have to decide what they want an extension for. They may as well decide now, and vote for the motion that extends article 50 specifically to have a second referendum.

robinph

Shelga wrote: »

But the EU is just going to tell parliament that they have to decide what they want an extension for. They may as well decide now, and vote for the motion that extends article 50 specifically to have a second referendum.

Sssshhhh.

Don't tell anyone that just yet, it needs to be a surprise or not enough will vote for the extension. Needs a few of them to think they are voting for the extension for the purposes of renegotiating the deal in some form or other.

BluePlanet

robinph wrote: »

Sssshhhh.

Don't tell anyone that just yet, it needs to be a surprise or not enough will vote for the extension. Needs a few of them to think they are voting for the extension for the purposes of renegotiating the deal in some form or other.

That is exactly what the Tories believe an extension is for.
To buy more time to pressure EU 27 to make changes to the backstop and WA.

Shelga

robinph wrote: »

Sssshhhh.

Don't tell anyone that just yet, it needs to be a surprise or not enough will vote for the extension. Needs a few of them to think they are voting for the extension for the purposes of renegotiating the deal in some form or other.

Then parliament should vote on two things: do they agree in principle to a softer Brexit than May’s, or do they want a second referendum. They are the only options.

A softer Brexit starts to seem pointless and pleases no one, so they should just go straight for a referendum.

BonnieSituation

I was fuming at Labour's approach but yet again this forum comes up trumps.

Solid work guys.

Inquitus

Seems the DUP are looking for a ladder to climb down and will take some weaker guarantees to back a 3rd WA vote.

The DUP leader, Arlene Foster, has signalled her party is ready to do a deal to end the Brexit impasse, saying that the prime minister must prove only that the constitutional integrity of the UK would be preserved, my colleague Jessica Elgot reports.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/14/dup-leader-arlene-foster-ready-to-strike-deal-with-may-to-end-brexit-impasse

Sardonicat

And back in your box you go, Ms Foster.

demfad

robinph wrote: »

But would at least be a toss of the coin with a decision at the end of it, assuming they don't have one of the options being lets go back to Brussels and re-negotiate.



It's a disaster either way as far as I'm concerned if it's no deal or Mays deal, but if the country knowingly opts for one of those over remain then so be it and I'll just have to prepare the escape pods. Can you inherit nationality from your children?

Even though none of the electoral issues that had a massive influence on the first vote have been addressed I think remain would win by 60:40 at least.

There was no 'on the ground' knowledge of the harm Brexit will do.
Now Business, farming, haulage, catering etc. etc. have all looked into it and all understand.

The Remain vote will increase in NI and Scotland and Wales will vote remain this time. So will England I feel.

No poll as far as I know has put leave ahead of remain since 2017.
The constant leave mantra that 'public sentiment hasn't shifted' is evidence enough that it has.

joe40

It seems like Brexit is slipping away from them.

If May's WA agreement is put a 3rd time the ERG and DUP might be onboard this time if they feel there is a significant risk of no Brexit. This might provide the 75 or so votes needed to overturn the last vote.

I would nearly take that myself at this stage.

Another referendum is not guaranteed, and the result is not guaranteed even if there were to be another vote

joe40

joe40 wrote: »

It seems like Brexit is slipping away from them.

If May's WA agreement is put a 3rd time the ERG and DUP might be onboard this time if they feel there is a significant risk of no Brexit. This might provide the 75 or so votes needed to overturn the last vote.

I would nearly take that myself at this stage.

Another referendum is not guaranteed, and the result is not guaranteed even if there were to be another vote

It will be interesting if they run the amendment that says public vote on MDV3 or Remain before the parliament gets to vote on MDV3.

I think it has to happen in that order, because if parliament do approve of MDV3, the 2nd referendum won't have a leg to stand on as parliament has approved

ancapailldorcha

joe40 wrote: »

It seems like Brexit is slipping away from them.

If May's WA agreement is put a 3rd time the ERG and DUP might be onboard this time if they feel there is a significant risk of no Brexit. This might provide the 75 or so votes needed to overturn the last vote.

I would nearly take that myself at this stage.

Another referendum is not guaranteed, and the result is not guaranteed even if there were to be another vote

They lost by 149 last time though. The ERG and DUP between them don't command nearly enough votes.

Leroy42

joe40 wrote: »

It seems like Brexit is slipping away from them.

If May's WA agreement is put a 3rd time the ERG and DUP might be onboard this time if they feel there is a significant risk of no Brexit. This might provide the 75 or so votes needed to overturn the last vote.

I would nearly take that myself at this stage.

Another referendum is not guaranteed, and the result is not guaranteed even if there were to be another vote

But the default is No Deal on 29th. No matter how many votes TM's loses this remains the case. The vote yesterday is not binding, and even if it where there needs to be legislation passed and I see little hope of that.

murphaph

joe40 wrote: »

It seems like Brexit is slipping away from them.

If May's WA agreement is put a 3rd time the ERG and DUP might be onboard this time if they feel there is a significant risk of no Brexit. This might provide the 75 or so votes needed to overturn the last vote.

I would nearly take that myself at this stage.

Another referendum is not guaranteed, and the result is not guaranteed even if there were to be another vote

I'd take it to get them out of the decision making processes of the EU while they fix their internal political structures and just grow up a bit. They will blame us on their (mis)fortunes either way. The EU does have other things to concern itself with. Some sub-committee can be established to deal with the UK once they are a non-member, perhaps Ms Weyand could chair it. Perhaps in a generation or so they might be ready to genuinely cooperate as a normal member state.

charlie14

Inquitus wrote: »

Seems the DUP are looking for a ladder to climb down and will take some weaker guarantees to back a 3rd WA vote.



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/14/dup-leader-arlene-foster-ready-to-strike-deal-with-may-to-end-brexit-impasse

If there was a 2nd referendum NI would be 70% remain imo, so bad news for the DUP.
As I said earlier, after both the DUP & ERG`s weakness being exposed last night, I would not be overly surprised at the ERG looking too same ladder.

SimonTemplar

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

It seems like Brexit is slipping away from them.

If May's WA agreement is put a 3rd time the ERG and DUP might be onboard this time if they feel there is a significant risk of no Brexit. This might provide the 75 or so votes needed to overturn the last vote.

I would nearly take that myself at this stage.

Another referendum is not guaranteed, and the result is not guaranteed even if there were to be another vote

They lost by 149 last time though. The ERG and DUP between them don't command nearly enough votes.

This is why I don't understand why the DUP and ERG are considered so important for the WA vote. Even if they both vote for the WA, it'll still fail by a lot.

joe40

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They lost by 149 last time though. The ERG and DUP between them don't command nearly enough votes.

I thought they would have those numbers, along with DUP 80 would do it.

I could be wrong though I haven't been that close to the actual arithmetic here

charlie14

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They lost by 149 last time though. The ERG and DUP between them don't command nearly enough votes.

If both the DUP and ERG both back it then it would be difficult for any others in the Tory party to vote against I would imagine ?

For it to pass would only require 75 changing their vote. DUP vote for and that leaves 65 of which, and I may be wrong, would be well within the range if the ERG also backed it.

Inquitus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They lost by 149 last time though. The ERG and DUP between them don't command nearly enough votes.

Well it was roughly 70-72 ERG who voted against the 2nd WA vote and 10 DUP, so there is likely enough to swing it, if they are unanimous.

ancapailldorcha

Inquitus wrote: »

Well it was roughly 70-72 ERG who voted against the 2nd WA vote and 10 DUP, so there is likely enough to swing it, if they are unanimous.

Just realised the error in my maths.

Wouldn't they insist on changing the WA anyway though?

Duane Dibbley

I think she needs 320 votes for it to pass. Which would mean she needs an extra 78 votes