Werewolf - Mario vs Sonic - NEXT LEVEL

Vernon WW

Unreal that Isla was villager. Fook it anyways.

Ok let's first tabulate all the data:

Sonic World Day 1 votes:


Lynch Vote Results:

Phil WW (3); Desmond WW, Angus WW, Vernon WW
Vernon WW (3); Clodagh WW, Phil WW, Mary WW
Mary WW (1); Steve WW
Angus WW (1); Liam WW
Steve WW (1); Gabriel WW

Did not vote: Katie WW



Sonic World Votes Day 2:

VOTING RESULTS:

Liam - Vernon, Desmond
Steve - Gabriel, Mary
Angus - Phil, Steve
Desmond - Liam, Clodagh
Clodagh - Angus



So we can see how our wolves voted on Sonic World prior to the merge. There isn't much to say about it other than the clearly desperate pile on. There's no wagonomics to be done, the wolves from the island are out in the open.

There is a maximum of one evil left in Sonic World though, which is a boon I guess. They can't be found from the votes above though as it only happened this morning.


Mushroom Kingdom Votes Day 1:

Lynch Vote Results

Doris (3); Eva WW, Isla WW, Conor WW
Winifred (2); Jake WW, Gertrude WW
Eva (1); Riona WW
Conor (1); Nigel WW
Derry (1); Doris WW

Did not vote: Derry WW, Winifred WW

Mushroom Kingdom is a fooking MESS.
Conor looks to be a wolf based off the wagon formation day one, tagging a last minute vote on to nail Doris.

It looks bad for Wini as a counter wagon I guess, but a bit less so. Where's the self press? I have to think that Wini as a wolf votes to save herself here, and with two villagers and one likely wolf on a villager, and two unconfirmed on Wini - it's unclear.

Riona looks WAY worse off that flip of Eva now, she'd move above Wini in the wolf stakes I think and has very high equity as an original wolf.

Depends on Wini's alignment really which way Jake and Gertrude can be interpreted.

Nigel is off wagon here, but voting on Conor so we'd need a flip of Conor to see how that looks.


Mushroom Kingdom Votes Day 2:

VOTING RESULTS:

Eva - Riona, Winifred, Nigel, Isla, Gertrude
Isla - Jake
Nigel - Eva
Gertrude - Conor


Day 2 and Jake switches from Wini to Isla. That's the first thing that stands out to me. Why? What changed I wonder. It looks very very bad now after the Isla flip.

Conor is off wagon as well on Gertie - could be a wolf on wolf vote is my first instinct - although Gertie was a bit panicked iirc at end of day and piled onto Eva to save herself. Why do that? Strange behaviour.

Riona's early vote here again puts her in a potentially wolfy situation, but with only green flips, this is really all conjecture.


Off the data those most likely to be wolves from the Isla flip are now:

Conor
Riona
Gertrude

With Winifred just below them in those stakes.

The claims need to be considered of course as well but it puts both Nigel and Jake below anyone else for the time being.

Combined Worlds Results Day 3:


Lynch Vote Results

Isla (8) – Nigel WW, Jake WW, Vernon WW, Riona WW, Clodagh WW, Gertrude WW, Conor WW, Steve WW
Steve (6) – Gabriel WW, Desmond WW, Mary WW, Isla WW, Winifred WW, Phil WW


And onto day 3 when we combine.

Firstly we know Clodagh has outed herself as she lied at the beginning of the day about her vote. I was waiting to see where it fell for more data, but beyond a shadow of a doubt Clodagh and Steve are the remaining wolves from Sonic land - convert not withstanding.

My own vote looks horrible here admittedly as well. Not going into that, it's up for others to judge as I know I'm village. I can only be the convert anyways based off the fact that the other two wolves on Sonic Land are outed!

Nigel's votes are quite scattergun: Night 1 was Conor, Night 2 was Eva, and Night 3 was Isla. If anything it's probably more villagery as it shows he's thinking about his votes a bit more.

Winnie's vote on Steve is another good look actually. The initial data lead me to her with Isla being considered a wolf, but with the flip I'm leaning away from Winnie being a wolf. Nothing is confirmed though, and that Conor vote on Doris still has her looking dodgy enough to certainly be in the POE, but lower down.


If Steve wasn't a wolf I'd have a niggly feeling about Gabriel being one as he hasn't moved even slightly on his vote from day 1. Steve, Steve, Steve.

Dessie continues to look fairly strong in his votes, bar our muck up on Sunday, all the Steve voters look a lot better in fact.

However, there are two wolf teams, so in order for that to be the case all 6 wolves and two villagers voted on the Isla wagon. I'm leaning to that being very unlikely.


So based off the data these guys need to die immediately:

Steve
Clodagh

And then we need to systematically wipe out the remaining Shroomies.

That mislynch puts us in a bad position, I'm not gonna lie. Not sure if we have the lynches to win now with two kills a day, so we need to rely on evils taking each other out and hopefully the mods giving me bullets for that pink Uzi

Nigel WW

So

Sunday
Nigel claims Luigi - unopposed - since verified with Phil
Doris lynched - good
Derry munched - good
Eva lynched - good
Munch blocked
Jake claims Yoshi - unopposed
Isla lynched - good

So I see two scenarios

Jake is telling the truth
- nobody spoke out against him
- a block definitely occurred
- Gerti, Wini and Conor are all bad


Jake is lying
- Jake, Conor plus one of Gerti or Wini are bad
- Why did no one speak out when Jake said he was Yoshi?
- One possibility is that one of these people is Peaches?

Vernon WW

Addendum:

Gertrude's vote on Isla is strange. She seemed to be leaning Steve but never verified which way she was voting.

Also the fact that a confirmed wolf and a suspected one voted directly after and the vote really stinks.

Gertberry is probably wolfing I reckon

Vernon WW

Blargh so there's 7 villagers left and 6 wolves spread across two teams.

Wolfies need to start taking each other out at some point soon so that's a bonus I guess.

Phil WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

Blargh so there's 7 villagers left and 6 wolves spread across two teams.

Wolfies need to start taking each other out at some point soon so that's a bonus I guess.

So either

7 vs 3 vs 3

or

7 vs 4 vs 2?

2 munches tomorrow, either...

5 vs 3 vs 3

5 vs 4 vs 2.

Yeah, that mislynch looks really bad now

Vernon WW

Phil WW wrote: »

So either

7 vs 3 vs 3

or

7 vs 4 vs 2?

2 munches tomorrow, either...

5 vs 3 vs 3

5 vs 4 vs 2.

Yeah, that mislynch looks really bad now

On the other hand, what the fook was Isla playing at, she had umpteen opportunities to defend herself.

The reason I hung tough is she said she'd give me some reads and just fcuked off and never came back :rolleyes:

Nigel WW

Vernon, I'll help you out here

I know who Mario is, have done since Sunday when I made my three guesses
I guessed Isla, Eva and Riona
Riona and I have had a backroom since.
I knew about the challenge between her and Phil cause I'm guessing like Tails I have access to the messages she gets from Mods.
Her challenge for a mushroom the first day was to get a vote, do an FFA and post 15 times. Which is why when I saw Eva claiming Mario I assumed she was evil and on the same quest. Turns out she was just a mad yoke.

You've seen my theory for the rest, why I thought Isla was a wolf

Riona thinks that Jake is a wolf and figured out that she was Mario, knew she had an extra life and munched her last nite and then claimed he was Yoshi.
As a theory it stands up

There is a rub

Pter wrote: »

A prize has been awarded.

The prize that Mario won for beating Phil in the challenge was that she can apply to any player herself included that if they are munched on a wolf its the wolf that will die

So any chance you'd update your wagonomics based on that?

Riona WW

^^^ what he said

Vernon WW

Kinda figured when you left Riona out of the wolf combos tbh, guys

So you have three wolves in four - Jake, Gertie, Conor, Winnie.

Ok need to have a look at that data more now

Phil WW

Ha!

Me and Tails thought you were Mario tbh, Nigel.

Riona WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

Kinda figured when you left Riona out of the wolf combos tbh, guys

So you have three wolves in four - Jake, Gertie, Conor, Winnie.

Ok need to have a look at that data more now

You can see why I think the wolf’s might have guessed too so.

Jake WW

I had no idea whom to vote for on day one. Wini was as good as any in my eyes.

I wasnt joining a wagon on day 2, i stand by my observation that Eva was too erratic to be a wolf.

Vernon WW

Phil WW wrote: »

Ha!

Me and Tails thought you were Mario tbh, Nigel.

Phil you might be able to resolve Jake here. On Monday morning do you have any idea why the munch failed on our island?

Nigel WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

Phil you might be able to resolve Jake here. On Monday morning do you have any idea why the munch failed on our island?

Why would Phil know?

Nigel WW

Phil WW wrote: »

Ha!

Me and Tails thought you were Mario tbh, Nigel.

Hah, I never thought of that

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

Why would Phil know?

He hinted about it pre munch but never elaborated

Jake WW

I protected myself , hence why the munch failed.

I dropped breadcrumbs in my first post.

Im unopposed as Yoshi.

Jake WW

Also I only came out when Nigel asked.

Vernon WW

Well then the wolf team is exactly Winnie, Gertie and Conor.

So we have 5 wolves and just need to find the convert if we live long enough

Riona WW

Winnie, Gertie and Conor, if any of you are actually Yoshi or peaches there’s no point keeping quiet anymore.

Jake WW

Gertie, Conor and Wini are your wolves.

Jake WW

Riona WW wrote: »

Winnie, Gertie and Conor, if any of you are actually Yoshi or peaches there’s no point keeping quiet anymore.

No one will come forward. They havent the grapefruits.

Phil WW

Riona, just for clarity.

Your prize was an extra life for completing the challange?

Jake WW

Also any questions, ill gladly answer.

I can tell you whom I protevted night 1 if it helps, not that it will help mind you

Riona WW

Jake WW wrote: »

Gertie, Conor and Wini are your wolves.

Nothing to say that even if they are you haven’t been converted. As far as I’m concerned me and Luigi are the only confirmed good from our island.

If I get surprisingly munched without seeming to lose a life first you will be lynched.....assuming I don’t take you with me in the first place.

Nigel WW

Phil WW wrote: »

Riona, just for clarity.

Your prize was an extra life for completing the challange?

No she won that for the mariokart on Monday, announced it at the time.

Her prize versus u was the reverse kill on a wolf for someone

Jake WW

Nidge, what made you pick Riona .....as a guess

Nigel WW

Basically the wolves have a 50/50 chance if they go for me or Mario. One of us will have a protection that will reverse the kill onto the wolf

Riona WW

Phil WW wrote: »

Riona, just for clarity.

Your prize was an extra life for completing the challange?

I got an extra life for the kart race and from today’s challenge I get to blow up a wolfie if they try to munch me. I failed my first challenge day 1, which considering what a shambles we’ve been, I’m shocked no one voted to lynch me

Nigel WW

Jake WW wrote: »

Nidge, what made you pick Riona .....as a guess

Random really, something about the way she was posting. Conor was on my initial list and then last minute I bumped him for Riona