Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

pad199207

Radar infrastructure on this island is diabolical

Kutebride

Raintoday.co.uk shadow has got worse. Boooo.
Dry in Meath. Breezy and lots of dark clouds hovering

DOCARCH

Nice anvil heading towards/passing over Navan (as seen from Dublin 16).

Meteorite58

ECM and ICON showing potential for thunderstorms up along Atlantic coasts this evening. Galway might be in the firing line. Looks to be fair bit of convection building . Gone very dark here near Tralee and beginning to rain.

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual

Meteorite58

ECM showing a very showery day tomorrow with heavy local convective showers and a lot of potential for scattered thunderstorms. Could have hail showers as well. A few funnels perhaps too.

Meteorite58

Quite a potential for thunderstorms tomorrow, all the models showing high CAPE readings.

Meteorite58

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-06






[Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 06 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 07 Aug 2019

ISSUED 22:16 UTC Mon 05 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low will migrate gradually eastwards across Northern Ireland and Scotland through Tuesday, the associated cold pool overspreading the British Isles and resulting in fairly steep mid-level lapse rates. Daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 12-15C) will help yield widespread 500-700 J/kg CAPE, and locally in excess of 1,000 J/kg.


Numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop fairly widely. Across England, Wales and the Republic of Ireland these will tend to be organised into distinct SW-NE lines along zones of low-level wind convergence, and so areas either side of these lines will have a relative minima in activity. The position of these lines will tend to drift gradually eastwards with each hour.
On the forward side of the upper low, the environment will be reasonably sheared, aiding cell organisation such that individual showers/storms may last some time and track a fair distance given the strong steering flow. This means that rainfall totals will generally not be too problematic from an individual shower/storm, but shower training over similar areas may occur - although as mentioned, as the shower lines drift slowly eastwards, this may also not be too much of an issue. An isolated supercell may be possible, and there could be some notably gusty winds around some of these showers/storms - an isolated tornado is also not ruled out. Hail up to 2.0cm in diameter will be possible from the best-organised cells. The short land track over SE England suggests very little showers will affect these areas.

With greater proximity to the upper low, the slack flow across Scotland, and to a certain extent Northern Ireland, will result in slower storm motion and a greater risk of localised flooding given prolonged downpours. One or two spout-type funnels / weak tornadoes may be possible where low-level vorticity gets stretched upwards by updrafts.

Lightning activity will generally decrease by mid-late evening as daytime heating subsides, but the risk (albeit lower) persists overnight in exposed western parts - particularly NW England./I]

Meteorite58

Will be interesting to see if Thunderstorms are produced Thurs Night / Friday morning and possibly Friday daytime also.

Lot of warm moisture being brought up over Ireland.

squarecircles

Lots of convective clouds bubbling up over the hills to my south, all moving north eastwards, no land track behind me so nothing will develope here, nothing last night, or yesterday just heavy downpours and nothing on Sunday.

Disappointing given the amount of times thunder was in the forecast, Thursday Friday looks like a bag a ****e also for here.

DOCARCH

Shower that just passed through Dublin (just skimmed me in Dublin 16) has gone electric just off the coast.

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=12

Plenty of strikes in Ulster too.

Oscar Bravo

Thunder warning now issued

Status Yellow - Thunder warning for Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Meath, Leitrim, Roscommon and Sligo

Heavy thundery downpours this afternoon and evening with a risk of localised flooding

Valid: Tuesday 06 August 2019 14:00 to Tuesday 06 August 2019 21:00

Storm 10

All the thunder warnings that were out for Connacht and not a bang, I give up at this stage:mad::mad:

chris2007

Dublin included now in the thunder warning

Status Yellow - Thunder warning for Sligo, Roscommon, Cavan, Leitrim, Donegal, Monaghan, Longford, Louth, Meath, Westmeath and Dublin

Heavy thundery downpours this afternoon and evening with a risk of localised flooding

Valid: Tuesday 06 August 2019 16:00 to Tuesday 06 August 2019 21:00

sparrowcar

Couple of rumbles and cracks over swords in the last half hour.

ninebeanrows

A yellow thunder warning? Thought thunder warnings were only Orange

Crack heard in Malahide

redsteveireland

Storm 10 wrote: »

All the thunder warnings that were out for Connacht and not a bang, I give up at this stage:mad::mad:

Warnings were for thundery downpours I thought? We got them by the bucket load.

robclay26

Thunder here in Delvin, Westmeath. Little wall cloud too

pad199207

Thunder heard in Kildare now

squarecircles

Storm 10 wrote: »

All the thunder warnings that were out for Connacht and not a bang, I give up at this stage:mad::mad:

Met Eireann seem very poor at forecasting thunder,their wording changes from hour to hour day to day region to region all the time.
i know given its nature its very hard to predict percisly but youd think they could nail down the region its going to occur,so far today the warming has shifted from connaught intialy to the northwest and north midlands and now over to the east.Looking at the convection weather forecast last night it was clear these were the areas that would be effected.


thunderstorms
hail and lightning
thundery outbursts
thundery downpours
a slight chance of thunder
the odd rumble of thunder


and the most common type of thunder of all


nothing.

jimmynokia

Just on the news ME say thunder for North East only. Lol. That will change in next bulletin

pad199207

Torrential downpour in Naas again

Mortelaro

Well I wasn't expecting this afternoons thunderstorm down this far in Arklow at all,9 loud long peels
Very little rain with it just very short micro bursts

snowstorm445

Two long claps of thunder just outside Drogheda about ten minutes ago.

esposito

Might be being a bit pedantic here but shouldn’t Met Eireann say “thunderstorm warning” or lightning warning as opposed to “thunder warning” ? Thunder in itself dosen’t cause any damage, it’s the lightning and heavy rain/hail that does!

Meteorite58

esposito wrote: »

Might be being a bit pedantic here but shouldn’t Met Eireann say “thunderstorm warning” or lightning warning as opposed to “thunder warning” ? Thunder in itself dosen’t cause any damage, it’s the lightning and heavy rain/hail that does!

Fair point, its like giving a warning for the sound of the wind !

esposito

esposito wrote: »

Might be being a bit pedantic here but shouldn’t Met Eireann say “thunderstorm warning” or lightning warning as opposed to “thunder warning” ? Thunder in itself dosen’t cause any damage, it’s the lightning and heavy rain/hail that does!

But we rarely get a Thunderstorm in Ireland, thunder is the correct term here for a few rumbles and a few mins downpour.

squarecircles

east coast of the u.s lit up like a tree,flash flooding,flight cancellations

highdef

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But we rarely get a Thunderstorm in Ireland, thunder is the correct term here for a few rumbles and a few mins downpour.

But a few rumbles and a few mins downpour are entirely different things when a warning for thunder is forecast. I was on a gondala in Venice this afternoon and a high based thunderstorm passed directly overhead. There was constant thunder for about twenty minutes but no rain, never mind a downpour.

In my case, there was plenty of thunder.

pad199207

Plenty of lightning off to the south of Ireland. Watch as it just magically disappears when it comes near our shores..

Kutebride

Fog. Meath