Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

Meteorite58

The Cell off Drogheda

Kermit.de.frog

PukkaStukka wrote: »

There's a cell sparking furiously off the coast of Drogheda but it's trajectory is not onshore

Ugh hate when that happens. So close yet so far.

Meteorite58

Will be interesting to see if Lightning keeps going along the convergence zone moving off the E coast this evening.

Looking at Sat 24 it would seem to me that the convection producing the storm to the W of the Isle of Man will turn down the Irish Sea. Will it keep off shore or move in over land ? would think with the projected wind direction that it will probably keep off shore or along the coast. Remains to be seen if it keeps firing.

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual

DOCARCH

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ugh hate when that happens. So close yet so far.

Looks like it might come ashore.

Kermit.de.frog

Spark near Clonee just now.

Rougies

The convergence line from Monaghan to Dublin is quickly dying. That's it I think, I can't see the stuff near the IOM coming anywhere near the ROI, parts of NI may see some of it.

Meteorite58

Rougies wrote: »

The convergence line from Monaghan to Dublin is quickly dying. That's it I think, I can't see the stuff near the IOM coming anywhere near the ROI, parts of NI may see some of it.

You were right Rougies , faded out apart from around NE coasts with a few sferics still showing up and some heavy rain in Antrim atm.

On a side note interesting that a lot of the reported Thunder /lightning around the E never showed up on the Live Lightning maps today.

Meteorite58

Putting up these charts to compare with the 12Z coming out soon.

ECM and ICON have been showing Monday as a day of interest for Convection and Thunderstorms. Long way out but even Met Eireann mentioning it. If the weather is going to be poor on Monday might as well have thunderstorms eh.


The Irish Meteorological Service

'Current indications suggest our weather will continue unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain for the early days of next week, as low pressure remains nearby. Some of the showers are likely to be heavy and potentially thundery in nature. Temperatures are expected to remain close to average or slightly above. Winds mostly from a south or southeast direction Monday but veering more south to southwest Tuesday'.



All about the timing but a possible Negatively Tilted Trough, plume of high Theta E airmass coinciding with diurnal heating. Long way off but a bit of a study to see how it pans out.

My Mother text me a few mins ago asking if I heard the Thunder, ? no I said, I live about 7 Kms away and I did see a black sky but nothing was forecast and thought nothing of it, yet I see nothing on the radar ? Perhaps I could have heard it if I had been outside. A few rumbles she said.

Would have been the very south end of Kildare , about 10 Km North of Carlow Town.

Meteorite58

Deleted User wrote: »

My Mother text me a few mins ago asking if I heard the Thunder, ? no I said, I live about 7 Kms away and I did see a black sky but nothing was forecast and thought nothing of it, yet I see nothing on the radar ? Perhaps I could have heard it if I had been outside. A few rumbles she said.

Would have been the very south end of Kildare , about 10 Km North of Carlow Town.

No rain showing up on the radar and no convection showing up on Sat pics and the parameters aren't conducive to thunderstorms tonight . Maybe the sound of a truck bouncing a bit on the road or something like that.

Meteorite58

Meteorite58 wrote: »

No rain showing up on the radar and no convection showing up on Sat pics and the parameters aren't conducive to thunderstorms tonight . Maybe the sound of a truck bouncing a bit on the road or something like that.

I doubt it, I noticed the Sky getting dark at my house as I was getting the Boys in for bed around 8 -8:30 Pm. Thought nothing of it of course. Inside I wouldn't have heard anything, I'm about 7 Km from her place.

If My Mother said there was Thunder I believer her, she said it was a few rumbles, she's not the type that could care less about Thunder so I doubt she'd say it if it if it were not true, I know , I checked sat 24, met.ie and saw nothing. No rain etc,

No Thunderstorm, just a few Rumbles , at least that's what they sounded to her, so could have been louder wherever it was.

Perhaps someone from Athy, Castledermot, Baltinglass, Carlow, maybe Rathvilly heard something ?

Oscar Bravo

Deleted User wrote: »

My Mother text me a few mins ago asking if I heard the Thunder, ? no I said, I live about 7 Kms away and I did see a black sky but nothing was forecast and thought nothing of it, yet I see nothing on the radar ? Perhaps I could have heard it if I had been outside. A few rumbles she said.

Would have been the very south end of Kildare , about 10 Km North of Carlow Town.

Hey Madlad, around that time an Aer Lingus a321 was on the way into Dublin and passed directly over that area at around 21,000ft. Would easily cause a rumbling sound.

Meteorite58

ECM 12 and ICON still going with a potentially thundery day next Monday into Tuesday as slow moving weather from a LP system positioned to the W of Ireland makes its way across the country coming up against a ridge to the E of Ireland , slowing it's progress. Looks like big convective showers and longer spells of rain.

Oscar Bravo

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Hey Madlad, around that time an Aer Lingus a321 was on the way into Dublin and passed directly over that area at around 21,000ft. Would easily cause a rumbling sound.

Ah no in fairness she knows the distinct difference between Jet Aircraft and Thunder, she's been around long enough.........

Lots of planes fly over this area.

In fact it was my Son who said about the dark sky " it's going to rain Dada, the sky is very dark"

Meteorite58

With a slow moving LP system like the one moving in over us this weekend forecasting will be chopping and changing and fine tuning down to the wire.

Sunday is now looking like a day of fairly heavy enough rain potential locally with the possibility of thunderstorms especially in the SW and W.

Monday showing thunderstorm potential.

Tuesday now showing most potential of very heavy convective rain and thunderstorms and might need to watch rainfall totals going in to Weds as the ECM is currently showing flooding potential in the SW and W.

Storm 10

Lots of mentions of Thunder on this morning's forecast by ME especially for the South and West

Issued at: 02 August 2019 08:35

TODAY - FRIDAY 2ND AUGUST
Today will be warm and largely dry with hazy sunshine. A few scattered showers will develop in the afternoon, mainly in Ulster. Maximum temperatures 19 to 25 degrees, in mostly light southeasterly breezes.

TONIGHT
Tonight will be dry in many areas with variable cloud cover. Outbreaks of rain will extend across much of Munster later in the night. Winds mostly light southeasterly, freshening on the southwest coast. Minimum temperatures 10 to 14 degrees.

TOMORROW - SATURDAY 3RD AUGUST
Tomorrow, Saturday, will start dry with in most areas with some sunshine. However, showers in Munster will become widespread during the day. There will still be good dry and sunny intervals for the afternoon and evening as well. Maximum temperatures 18 to 22 degrees in mostly light to moderate southeasterly breezes, fresh in western coastal areas.

Storm 10

Deleted User wrote: »

Issued at: 02 August 2019 08:35

TODAY - FRIDAY 2ND AUGUST
Today will be warm and largely dry with hazy sunshine. A few scattered showers will develop in the afternoon, mainly in Ulster. Maximum temperatures 19 to 25 degrees, in mostly light southeasterly breezes.

TONIGHT
Tonight will be dry in many areas with variable cloud cover. Outbreaks of rain will extend across much of Munster later in the night. Winds mostly light southeasterly, freshening on the southwest coast. Minimum temperatures 10 to 14 degrees.

TOMORROW - SATURDAY 3RD AUGUST
Tomorrow, Saturday, will start dry with in most areas with some sunshine. However, showers in Munster will become widespread during the day. There will still be good dry and sunny intervals for the afternoon and evening as well. Maximum temperatures 18 to 22 degrees in mostly light to moderate southeasterly breezes, fresh in western coastal areas.

You are a bit out of date with that forecast latest from Met Eireann

Headline: Unsettled weather continuing up to and including Wednesday next, with a risk of heavy, thundery downpours at times. Temperatures around normal, or a little above. Early indications suggest that conditions will improve for Thursday and Friday.

Saturday night: There will be further outbreaks of showery rain, becoming confined mainly to eastern coastal areas by morning, with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. A few mist or fog patches may develop. Minimum temperatures 11 to 14 Celsius, in mostly light southeasterly breezes.

Sunday: A few bright or sunny spells, especially in the east and north, but scattered showers also. Showers will merge to give longer spells of rain in west Munster during the day and also in west Connacht later, with a risk of thunder. There is a slight risk of thunder in the north also. Maximum afternoon temperatures 19 to 23 Celsius, in mostly light to moderate southeasterly winds, but winds will be fresh to strong and gusty along western and southwestern coasts. Most areas will become dry overnight, with clear spells and lows of 10 to 13 Celsius.

Monday: Dry in many areas at first, but showers in the west and southwest will become widespread during the day. The showers will become heavy and prolonged in places, with a risk of thundery downpours, especially in the western half of the country (but possible anywhere), and this could lead to spot flooding. A few bright spells also, especially in the east and southeast. Maximum temperatures 17 to 22 Celsius, with mostly moderate southwesterly winds, but winds strong and gusty along western and southern coasts.

Tuesday & Wednesday : Some bright spells, but occasional showers also, many of them heavy, with a high risk of thundery downpours and spot flooding. Max. 17 to 20 or 21 Celsius, with mostly light to moderate southwest breezes on Tuesday, becoming variable in direction by Wednesday.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z shows very heavy rain on Sunday in the W and possibly quite a few thunderstorms. Rainfall warnings possible.

Still time for tweaks but showing it to be increasingly likely to have a fair amount of thunderstorms beginning in the SW /W and spreading to the NW and N and quite possibly across the country also as the day goes on. ICON on the other hand is showing for widespread thunderstorms moving from the Western half of the country to the Eastern half of the country through the day.

So to me now looks like an unstable air mass with a negatively tilted trough, upper Jet with strong upper winds giving lots of vorticity and high amounts of Deep layer shear and low level shear. With the frontal passage looks like going to have a lot of forcing giving embedded thunderstorms.

Looks like a shortwave developing off the main Low Sunday afternoon this would explain the possible very heavy rain in the W if it tracks up that way. These to the best of my knowledge are unpredictable in nature and hard to predict ,worth keeping an eye on it. Currently going by the ECM showing around 25mm in about 5 hrs or so up along the W on Sunday evening.

Temps getting up to the low 20's and seeing DP's 15C - 16C

Might see a few funnels as well.

Meteorite58

ECM shifted the heaviest rainfall for tomorrow. Quite a bit of potential for thunderstorms more so in the SW , W and NW in the first half of the day and moving across the country during the afternoon and evening. Everywhere with a risk of some activity.

vickers209

Meanwhile, an occlusion moving gradually northwards and eastwards across Ireland, and across the Irish Sea on Saturday night, may contain some embedded elevated convection, although weak instability suggests any lightning activity will be fairly isolated - greatest threat appears to be E / SE Ireland and adjacent sea areas on Saturday evening. Confidence on lightning activity is not particularly high, but a low-end SLGT has been issued to highlight the main area of interest.

Meteorite58

Heavy rain in the SE atm. EURO 4 is predicting Thunderstorms there tonight ( on it's own showing TS moving along the SE corner later ). The models in general showing some activity possible moving up the Irish Sea later but probably staying over the sea. Will see if anything transpires.

Mortelaro

Just started raining here in Arklow
It's fairly light so far,nothing like those echoes (yet)

Meteorite58

Mortelaro wrote: »

Just started raining here in Arklow
It's fairly light so far,nothing like those echoes (yet)

Hope ye get your long awaited rain Mortelaro. Looks like the heaviest rain might just skim pass the SE corner.

redsteveireland

Not looking promising for the Galway races tomorrow, might save me a few quid.

Mortelaro

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Hope ye get your long awaited rain Mortelaro. Looks like the heaviest rain might just skim pass the SE corner.

Got a very very welcome 8.4mm from that shower system last night

Comhrá

I find this app useful for real-time notifications of nearby lightning.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.jrustonapps.mylightningtracker&hl=en_IE

Meteorite58

The Northern half of the country with the best chance of scattered thunderstorms tomorrow probably from the afternoon.

Later tomorrow evening along the W and SW coasts there is an occluded front making its way inland, could get a few heavy bursts of rain in this and a low chance of a few rumbles perhaps.

redsteveireland

Really missing that Shannon Radar, that recent shower to pass over Galway looked harmless enough on the radar but it gave a good soaking here with that thundery downpour feel to it.

Donegal Storm

Is the Belfast radar down as well? A coupe of heavy enough showers in Donegal this morning but nothing on radar