Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

Mortelaro

Storm 10 wrote: »

Just a question for the experts here if that storm today had a direct hit on Galway would we have been looking at a Red Warning for rain/hail and lightning, there would bound to have been a lot of lightning damage looking at it this morning.

There wouldn't have been time for a red warning
Rainfall rates would have brought localised flooding and there would have been widespread power outages from the lightning, only criticism comes from a 'during event's warning anyway if you follow?
Enough information was given out anyway suggesting possible localised flooding both today yesterday and the day before for people not to have been caught unawares if you follow

Jpmarn

No mention of risk of thunder showers tonight on the latest forecast on met.ie.

pad199207

Keep an eye around the North of Biscay

highdef

Another line of convective cloud has developed in the past 20 minutes in the east midlands. Probably won't come to much, if anything but like earlier, it's worth keeping an eye on.

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207 wrote: »

Keep an eye around the North of Biscay

Indeed, a noisy start to the day tomorrow possible in parts of the east.

Mortelaro

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Indeed, a noisy start to the day tomorrow possible in the east.

I Expect that to correct eastward in the morning with the focus closer to the east coast in the wake of the earlier fronts momentum, let's see

Meteorite58

That was some storm today. Interesting that the ECM predicted a big storm which happened but did not get the track or exact location right. Predicted timing was quite good. AROME got the track of the precipitation right but underestimated the intensity. Checked Met Eireann rainfall prediction charts last night and they were very similar to the AROME.


Cloud top height at 13.30

Storm 10

How can there be so much lightning activity in that storm it's still as intense as ever off the North West Coast what is feeding all that lightning .

highdef

Looks like things are about to kick off in Biscay. Good bit of convection has begun recently.

PukkaStukka

Storm 10 wrote: »

How can there be so much lightning activity in that storm it's still as intense as ever off the North West Coast what is feeding all that lightning .

Huge convection and lots of ice in the cloud

Storm 10

If that had hit any populated area there would have been a lot of buildings damaged by lightning, I have never seen anything like it and probably never will again

PukkaStukka

It was a mini version of 1985

Mortelaro

Storm 10 wrote: »

How can there be so much lightning activity in that storm it's still as intense as ever off the North West Coast what is feeding all that lightning .

Record high 850 temps and a cold Atlantic

PukkaStukka

A streamer is running north from Malin Head / Lough Swilly. It has produced some sparks, albeit well of the coast

Donegal Storm

Storm 10 wrote: »

If that had hit any populated area there would have been a lot of buildings damaged by lightning, I have never seen anything like it and probably never will again

There're storms as intense as that on the continent almost daily at this time of year, rare to see one so close by but the storm itself was nothing unusual


Some thundery looking skies here all evening with a lot of wavy instability in the cloud base but nothing much happening

Meteorite58

ECM showing a good chance of thunderstorms from early, perhaps around 6am in the S to SE ( more the SE ) and spreading up towards the E into the early afternoon.

JanuarySnowstor

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM showing a good chance of thunderstorms from early, perhaps around 6am in the S to SE ( more the SE ) and spreading up towards the E into the early afternoon.

The ecm has been woeful with ppn charts all week. In contrast the gfs has been doing very well

Kermit.de.frog

GFS 18z has the plume right up the east coast in the latter 1/3 of the night.

Nothing particularly heavy precip wise but still the potential for elevated cells.

Hirlam showing more intense precipitation potential.

Storm 10

Any chance of Thunder in the West tomorrow

Kermit.de.frog

They'll speak about the storm approaching the, eh, Faroe Island's for decades to come :troll:

https://en.sat24.com/en

Kermit.de.frog

Sferics just southwest of Cornwall now in the plume.

Good sign of potential.

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

Just saw lightning in it on sat24, not very active but here's hoping.

Kermit.de.frog

Yup, as expected it's kicking off - headed for southeast

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

This is active now - lid being removed from the cloud tops and towers going up.

prinzeugen

Sods law says one of three things will happen.

1. It fires over the Irish Sea
2. It fires west of Dublin. Good for Kildare bad for D6/D6w parts of Dublin
3. It goes mental over Wicklow, hits the mountains and goes pop and we just get rain.

I would love, direct overhead thunder in D6 but its has not happened in years. (Last strike within 1km of my home was in 2008!!)

Kermit.de.frog

Estimated time of Boardsies being woken up in coastal Waterford, Wexford with a "wtf was that!?" - 5:15

pad199207

Looks like Hirlam was spot on.

Kermit.de.frog

Cloud tops shooting up. Could be some localised flooding issues in the next few hours.

pad199207

Don’t ya know it will all die a death the minute it hits land

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207 wrote: »

Don’t ya know it will all die a death the minute it hits land

It won't

Getting more active by the hour, just hope it give something to Carlow before I have to head to bed around 10 Am and hope it doesn't decide to P1ss me off by heading more east or west lol. Or I hope I don't miss it by the time I get home lol.