Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

uck51js9zml2yt

Wind starting to pick up in North Kerry.

Still some blue skies. Will be another nice sunset.

MajesticDonkey

It's all kicking off in Belgrade: http://map.blitzortung.org/#8.74/44.8593/20.4574
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3M3kbytMPU8

squarecircles

Gerry Murphy high(lightning) the potential for heavy thundery showers possible in Clare and Galway tomorrow.Intersting to see if they will issue a warning tomorrow.

squarecircles

aisling86

I'd nearly drive to Clare to experience that tomorrow, been waiting all week for a good thunderstorm.

km79

That is looking way too close for comfort now
This evening was very dissapointing in the end as well
Its just too damn windy to sit out in comfort once the sun went away after 8

Kermit.de.frog

Tomorrow night is certainly looking increasingly interesting elsewhere for that thundery breakdown.

Parts of the west doing well for storms tomorrow as well particularly Galway/Mayo.



Plenty to watch between now and Saturday night!

Oscar Bravo

Forecast update 2148 including possible thunderstorms for the west tomorrow

TONIGHT - Thursday 27th June
Mostly dry tonight with long clear spells and just patchy cloud. A humid night with minimum temperatures of 14 to 17 degrees in moderate easterly breezes. There is the slight risk of a few thundery downpours developing in the southwest towards dawn.

TOMORROW - Friday 28th June
Warm and humid on Friday with good sunshine for Ulster and Leinster. However, cloud will begin to build across parts of Munster and Connacht and there is the potential for a few thunderstorms to develop which may result in localised surface flooding. Top temperatures of 22 to 27 degrees generally but a few degrees cooler in southern coastal areas due to moderate southeasterly breezes.

Meteorite58

eon1208 wrote: »

Met eireann has Saturday holding dry in the midlands. Is this possible ?

Possible that most of the rain /showers will be more towards the SE /E /NE for the first half of the day , a front will push in from the Atlantic in the afternoon moving W to E although might become light or dissipate as it crosses the country into the evening.

ZX7R

What's the big blob of the coast of Dublin to whales it has really moved but changes in intenseaty thunder storm or false return

Meteorite58

That would be serious rain if it falls as the ECM is predicting.

km79

Meteorite58 wrote: »

That would be serious rain if it falls as the ECM is predicting.

And most of it over a couple of hours only

Meteorite58

Lets see how accurate these are. On an normal pulse thunderstorm type days these prediction charts barely register a faint colour, normally grey. This would be very out of the ordinary if it happens as it is predicting.

Kermit.de.frog

I think an orange warning for Clare/Galway/Mayo looks warranted.

Rougies

ZX7R wrote: »

What's the big blob of the coast of Dublin to whales it has really moved but changes in intenseaty thunder storm or false return

Some level of disregard for legibility you have going on there, took me a while to decipher the question!

Yes they are false returns. Easy way to tell is have a look at https://en.sat24.com/en. If there are no clouds, there is no rain or thunderstorm.

km79

Yr.no showing 48 mm of rain over a 4 hour period tomorrow afternoon for Galway city
This surely won’t happen??????

sryanbruen

km79 wrote: »

Yr.no showing 48 mm of rain over a 4 hour period tomorrow afternoon for Galway city
This surely won’t happen??????

Can happen. Kilkenny had 56.7mm in 2 hours during a thunderstorm in July 1983 for example following a hot spell.

km79

sryanbruen wrote: »

Can happen. Kilkenny had 56.7mm in 2 hours during a thunderstorm in July 1983 for example following a hot spell.

Rougies

sryanbruen wrote: »

Can happen. Kilkenny had 56.7mm in 2 hours during a thunderstorm in July 1983 for example following a hot spell.

And this:

29th June 2005 saw 45mm fall in the Phoenix Park in less than an hour.

from https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/HeavyRain241011.pdf

Kermit.de.frog

ECM modelling the thunderstorm potential in the east all day Saturday from sunrise. Most interesting of the 12z runs for storm potential for us on this side. :cool:

Parameters look quite intense for Galway tomorrow. Reckon there will be some headlines on the news come tomorrow evening.

Storm 10

Is it flooding your on about for Galway

km79

Storm 10 wrote: »

Is it flooding your on about for Galway

It’s what I’m worried about anyway given the forecasted (by yr.no) rain intensity over such a short period of time
That
And the lightning !

aisling86

Thunderstorm warning for cork Kerry Clare Galway updated on Facebook on Irish weather online (MT).

typhoony

Met Eireann haven't reacted at all the potential tomorrow, you'd think they'd have some form of warning up for Clare and Galway.

Rougies

typhoony wrote: »

Met Eireann haven't reacted at all the potential tomorrow, you'd think they'd have some form of warning up for Clare and Galway.

However, cloud will begin to build across parts of Munster and Connacht and there is the potential for a few thunderstorms to develop which may result in localised surface flooding.

squarecircles

Ominous looking sky this morning, West Mayo.

jimmynokia

aisling86 wrote:

I'd nearly drive to Clare to experience that tomorrow, been waiting all week for a good thunderstorm.

Considering it myself if its to be as bad as suggested.

Storm 10

Cloudy cool wind in Galway temp 17 degrees

km79

Met Eireann and uk met office forecast sequences still having none of this
In fact the UKMO has moved them further offshore
It’s rarely that badly wrong so I’m hopeful the worst will stay further west
Yr.no forecast still not updated and is out on its own
MTC doesn’t seem too concerned either

Storm 10

Nothing really showing up on radar now any rain is small off the West coast and that big mean looking cloud off the South Coast yesterday that had all the lightning is more or less gone.