MPs quitting Labour & Conservative parties discussion thread

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Eh, no. We don't know that at all. If I'm a Labour MP looking to Corbyn to lead me into a glorious future and ensuring I keep my seat, then I'd be keeping a beady eye on the polls. I'd be wondering how my party would be doing under a leader who wasn't so unpopular.

Can't wait to hear how this new independent group is going to ride in and save everyone from brexit and a tory majority.

I'm all feckin ears on that one.

oscarBravo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

What about the repeated times I've pointed out that no labour leader could have opposed the referendum result.

Are you seriously trying to make the case that there is no possible way an opposition leader could have capitalised on the Tory omnishambles better than Corbyn has?

Because that's a pretty extraordinary position to take.

oscarBravo

Havockk wrote: »

oscarBravo wrote: »

...can we discuss the more salient point, which is just how bad a party has to be to have only recently scraped level with a May-led Tory government?

I've lost silly points before and owned them. No lost honour in that.

I guess that's a "no".

Hurrache

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

Or that nobody in the labour party would currently beat Corbyn in a leadership election, or that Corbyn is currently the Labour MP with the highest approval rating?

He's got a 29% approval rating, but a 50% disproval.

Khan is only 2% behind on approval but a more respectful disproval percentage of 32%.

Havockk

oscarBravo wrote: »

Are you seriously trying to make the case that there is no possible way an opposition leader could have capitalised on the Tory omnishambles better than Corbyn has?

Because that's a pretty extraordinary position to take.

How. Backing the idiotic people's vote? Huge swathes of labour voters backed brexit. A CU proposal is the sanest on the table.

Havockk

oscarBravo wrote: »

I guess that's a "no".

Now you're just being flat out hypocritical. I expect better.

oscarBravo

Havockk wrote: »

How. Backing the idiotic people's vote? Huge swathes of labour voters backed brexit. A CU proposal is the sanest on the table.

Jesus, you are trying to claim that. The mind boggles.

Havockk

oscarBravo wrote: »

Jesus, you are trying to claim that. The mind boggles.

Then what? Spell it out how Corbyn could have pleased everyone and prevented this particular split.

Subcomandante Marcos

oscarBravo wrote: »

Jesus, you are trying to claim that. The mind boggles.

Wow, you seem to actually think a "peoples referendum" was ever an option?

Are you just being obstinate for the sake of it or are your actually that dense?

How does Corbyn's "Norway+" model of continued CU membership and protection of workers, guman and migrant rights make a worse plan than re-running a bitterly divisive election and wasting time while further splintering both main parties to the point of even bigger impasse?

Harry Palmr

It'll surely be Corbyn's legacy that a Brexit riven Tory party in charge of a country shedding it's manufacturing sector at speed won the 2019-2022 election.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

Can't wait to hear how this new independent group is going to ride in and save everyone from brexit and a tory majority.

I'm all feckin ears on that one.

I'm hoping that The Tories will crash and burn due to the ERG's constant undermining leading to an extension of Article 50. Then I'd hope that a cross-party consensus would be achieved around a very soft Brexit or a second referendum. If it also meant the death of the Tory party then that would be a bonus.

Subcomandante Marcos

Article 50 will be extended and an agreement along the lines of Corbyn's current proposal will be achieved, but there will not be a second vote.

Tom Mann Centuria

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm hoping that The Tories will crash and burn due to the ERG's constant undermining leading to an extension of Article 50. Then I'd hope that a cross-party consensus would be achieved around a very soft Brexit or a second referendum. If it also meant the death of the Tory party then that would be a bonus.

Well the death of the Tory party would be lovely, can't disagree with that.

Franz Von Peppercorn

oscarBravo wrote: »

Are you seriously trying to make the case that there is no possible way an opposition leader could have capitalised on the Tory omnishambles better than Corbyn has?

Because that's a pretty extraordinary position to take.

What I said was that no labour leader could have opposed the referendum result.

Corbyn does fine on PMQ, but you have to watch that live. The media is not going to tell you he managed to win any number of points against the Vicar's daughter.

What he, or anybody else who might have led the party, can't do is abandon Brexit entirely. 70% of English and Welsh constituencies voted to exit ( and the vote was 54% to 46% in England/Wales), and thats where Labour wins seats.

And of course many, if not most, of those were Labour constituencies.

He has done ok. Now the Tories can go full steam ahead with Brexit in the anticipation that the left vote is split.

listermint

Havockk wrote: »

How. Backing the idiotic people's vote? Huge swathes of labour voters backed brexit. A CU proposal is the sanest on the table.

No they didn't . The majority of labour membership backed a second referendum.

That's multiple times you've played fast and loose with the facts. This twisting of the truth is no different than the erg liars and twisters on both sides and those that would make excuses for it. Like yourself

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

How. Backing the idiotic people's vote? Huge swathes of labour voters backed brexit. A CU proposal is the sanest on the table.

72% of Labour voters back a second referendum.

listermint

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

Article 50 will be extended and an agreement along the lines of Corbyn's current proposal will be achieved, but there will not be a second vote.

It won't. The UK will fall out no deal. And it will be Mays and corybns fault

And their supporters will be hammered.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Subcomandante Marcos wrote: »

Article 50 will be extended and an agreement along the lines of Corbyn's current proposal will be achieved, but there will not be a second vote.

I don't see that the Tories have to do that now.The splitters, if they succeed, are guaranteeing Tory hegemony.

It might happen if the remainers in the Tory party get a backbone.

Franz Von Peppercorn

listermint wrote: »

It won't. The UK will fall out no deal. And it will be Mays and corybns fault

And their supporters will be hammered.

So you are saying a new remain party ( or rejoin the EU party) is going to arise from the ashes and defeat these old parties?

Can't see it.

Hurrache

Havockk wrote: »

Then what? Spell it out how Corbyn could have pleased everyone and prevented this particular split.

How he failed to be of any opposition to May has little to do with the internal machinations of the party.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm hoping that The Tories will crash and burn due to the ERG's constant undermining leading to an extension of Article 50. Then I'd hope that a cross-party consensus would be achieved around a very soft Brexit or a second referendum. If it also meant the death of the Tory party then that would be a bonus.

What if they don't? And are emboldened even further? It's not without the realms of possibility that May was already burning the clock.

Will we be back here talking about principles?

Hurrache

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Corbyn does fine on PMQ, but you have to watch that live. The media is not going to tell you he managed to win any number of points against the Vicar's daughter..

This is head in the sand stuff. Political commentators everywhere have been crying out that May has no opposition.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

What if they don't? And are emboldened even further? It's not without the realms of possibility that May was already burning the clock.

She is burning down the clock to give parliament a binary choice. That's why I hope there will be a cross-party consensus when push comes to shove.

Will we be back here talking about principles?

We could be. The concept of 'principles' is fluid and subjective.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Hurrache wrote: »

This is head in the sand stuff. Political commentators everywhere have been crying out that May has no opposiot32.

It is literally the opposite of head in the sand. I watch him live on PMQ, and then I'm told he isn't doing what he clearly is doing - a pretty good job of being in opposition.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

72% of Labour voters back a second referendum.

There was only one way the '2nd vote' was going to work. And that was via a GE. If one referendum caused this feckton of trouble, how stupid is it have another one? GE was by far the best route.

Harry Palmr

The fact the Parliamentary Labour Party gave the gang of 7 a round of applause this evening should give the leadership some pause for thought - that said Tom Watson seems to get it.

Meanwhile back in the 80s (with a 19 or 18 prefix)

https://www.marxist.com/britain-bye-bye-blairites-now-show-the-rest-the-door.htm

listermint

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

So you are saying a new remain party ( or rejoin the EU party) is going to arise from the ashes and defeat these old parties?

Can't see it.

Yes, I do. The UK will be back looking for membership within ten years.

It's ridiculous to think they can exit in the manner they did straight into recession

listermint

Havockk wrote: »

There was only one way the '2nd vote' was going to work. And that was via a GE. If one referendum caused this feckton of trouble, how stupid is it have another one? GE was by far the best route.

But you said most of their membership didn't want one. Which is it. The previous falsehood or this one .. can't keep up

Professor Moriarty

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

So you are saying a new remain party ( or rejoin the EU party) is going to arise from the ashes and defeat these old parties?

Can't see it.

42% of voters said they would vote for a new centrist party.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

There was only one way the '2nd vote' was going to work. And that was via a GE. If one referendum caused this feckton of trouble, how stupid is it have another one? GE was by far the best route.

Perhaps, but a large majority of Labour voters want one anyway.

Havockk

listermint wrote: »

Yes, I do. The UK will be back looking for membership within ten years.

It's ridiculous to think they can exit in the manner they did straight into recession

How long did the SDP last? That's what's so pathetic about this... it's all happened before and allowed tory hegemony. Talk about not learning from history.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The fact the Parliamentary Labour Party gave the gang of 7 a round of applause this evening should give the leadership some pause for thought - that said Tom Watson seems to get it.

Meanwhile back in the 80s (with a 19 or 18 prefix)

https://www.marxist.com/britain-bye-bye-blairites-now-show-the-rest-the-door.htm

Do you think that Corbyn, if he left, would mean the end of a strong left movement within Labour? If so, you are wrong. McDonnell would probably follow, for one ( even more chance of that with this split). Theres a reason Corbyn has the support he does, its a dissatisfaction with the status Quo.

Blairism is dead. Too many dead Iraqis and increased wealth gaps.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Perhaps, but a large majority of Labour voters want one anyway.

I agree, but that was a delicate path to travel when a quarter of your base wants something else, esp, when already in the minority.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Perhaps, but a large majority of Labour voters want one anyway.

Lets see if they move allegiance to the new party.

What is this new parties manifesto, anyway? "Corbyn is bad, m'kay"?

Havockk

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Lets see if they move allegiance to the new party.

What is this new parties manifesto, anyway? "Corbyn is bad, m'kay"?

Remember, they are not a 'party' they are a private company.

Folkstonian

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Lets see if they move allegiance to the new party.

What is this new parties manifesto, anyway? "Corbyn is bad, m'kay"?

They aren’t a party.

Tom Mann Centuria

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

42% of voters said they would vote for a new centrist party.

The current centrist party is virtually dead, I am not convinced a new one would do much better. I could be proved wrong if these 7 were to have by elections now though. They seem reluctant for some reason.

How many would you say, would be re-elected in their current constituencies? I'd guess none.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

I agree, but that was a delicate path to travel when a quarter of your base wants something else, esp, when already in the minority.

Both parties have delicate paths. The only party who can unite its members behind its Brexit policy is the Lib Dems.

BobbyBobberson

Folkstonian wrote: »

They aren’t a party.

To add to your point about that.

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1097474345381912577

Professor Moriarty

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Lets see if they move allegiance to the new party.

What is this new parties manifesto, anyway? "Corbyn is bad, m'kay"?

They seem to be united in their soft Brexit stance and their belief that Corbyn's leadership is poor. I'm sure they'll develop further policies.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They seem to be united in their soft Brexit stance and their belief that Corbyn's leadership is poor. I'm sure they'll develop further policies.

They need a miracle at this stage.

Professor Moriarty

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

The current centrist party is virtually dead, I am not convinced a new one would do much better. I could be proved wrong if these 7 were to have by elections now though. They seem reluctant for some reason.

How many would you say, would be re-elected in their current constituencies? I'd guess none.

I don't know. A lot would depend on majorities, pro/anti Brexit constituencies, etc.

Tom Mann Centuria

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I don't know. A lot would depend on majorities, pro/anti Brexit constituencies, etc.

2 of the 7 are in leave constituencies and virtually all the others safe seats, or ones that splintering the vote allow someone other than them (or Labour) in.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I don't know. A lot would depend on majorities, pro/anti Brexit constituencies, etc.

You think they can sell a project like Blairs neoliberal 'lite' to the electorate that voted for Brexit?

I take it back... they'll need more than a miracle.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

They need a miracle at this stage.

I think they may well end up in the Lib Dems if they don't rejoin. They're too small and in a FPTP system the two big beasts would destroy them at election time.

Franz Von Peppercorn

listermint wrote: »

Yes, I do. The UK will be back looking for membership within ten years.

Not what I asked though. I said did you see a new party "crushing" the existing parties.

Havockk

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

2 of the 7 are in leave constituencies and virtually all the others safe seats, or ones that splintering the vote allow someone other than them (or Labour) in.

It would be interesting if the Tories, sensing a larger parliamentary majority and labour weakness calls a GE before Brexit day.

listermint

Tom Mann Centuria wrote: »

2 of the 7 are in leave constituencies and virtually all the others safe seats, or ones that splintering the vote allow someone other than them (or Labour) in.

Can you give some recent polls on these leave constituencies. Links please

listermint

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Not what I asked though. I said did you see a new party "crushing" the existing parties.

That's not what you said. So I don't know why you are now quoting words you never used.

Is this a serious response.

Havockk

listermint wrote: »

That's not what you said. So I don't know why you are now quoting words you never used.

Is this a serious response.

Well, if they don't think they can get either into government, or a position of influence, what do they hope to achieve?