Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Call me Al

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I mean... where do you start with that?

Ractopamine isn't even legal in the food chain in China or Russia. But it's negotiable in any US-UK trade deal?...

Water John

Zubes, Tusk et al in the EU have also been pretty clear to TM that she needs to bring Corbyn/Lb into the loop. This was her failure first day, 52/48 shows you must carry both sides forward. she is above all the PM not just the leader of the Tory Party.

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

4 out of 5 trucks going Dover to Calais are empty, because the UK imports a lot of physical stuff like food but mostly exports services, which do not need trucks.

It would be insane to make empty and TIR trucks queue for days when you could load 4/5 ferries with trucks which will need minimal checks at the French side and speed up the process for trucks which do need checks.

The problem with that is that you don't know that they are empty or even TIR unless you check first. Iirc, TIR containers have (as well as the TIR sign) a customs seal on the lock.

Hurrache

The trade talks and soft diplomacy continues to go swimmingly.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1095966234326327296?s=19

VinLieger

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Isn't there like a 50:50 split between leave and remain support?

That still doesnt mean each argument or side is equally valid and therefore should be given the same time when one is based in fact and one is based on lies fueling emotion.


Thats like saying 2+2=4 but we know half the people in a room don't believe that so we have an expert mathematician and this 2+2=8 theorist who has no qualifications bar watching youtube videos on the subject, they will be presented to the room as being equivalently qualified and then both be given equal time to argue their positions cus fairness....

Also as pointed out above cus everyone who voted leave voted for something different its far from being a simply 50/50 split in brexit debates. No deal should never be presented as representing 52% of the country

Christy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The BBCs habit of "challenging" people who are talking sense is part of the problem. Imagine if the flat earth society were treated the way UKIP have been

Flat Earther: The Earth is flat!!

John Humphrys: It is important that we do not silence minority views. Please explain at length on my Prime Time show.

Sensible person: The Earth is not flat, it is a sphere.

Fiona Bruce: I must challenge you on that for 30 minutes for the sake of balance. We have 10 plants from the flat Earth society in the audience, and only they will ask questions, and then hoot and holler as if you are ridiculous and they are the majority. I will do this week after week.

Sensible person: I am an astronaut and I have seen the round earth through a feckin window!

Dimbleby: Polls say public no longer trust so called "experts".

Cameron: British people must have their say on the shape of the Earth.

https://www.todayfm.com/podcasts/today-fm/irish-scientist-set-to-prove-that-the-earth-is-flat
There's nothing wrong with healthy debate-"challenging" people's opinions shouldn't be discouraged in a normal society.

"Challenging" should include something more than I don't like you or random nonsense. It should include actual, accurate evidence.

People complain about PC gone mad when you can't insult people of colour. This is PC gone mad for me.

I see no reason this man should not be dismissed. If he comes back a tiny lick of evidence then I will listen (say a bloody picture of the edge of the world). As is TodayFM are happily sticking on someone controversial (to be pc) to generate listeners.

Similarly with brexiters. Shouting about EU bullying is not adding to the debate or leave means leave. It is stifling actual facts being discussed. Which is largely why people are shouting it. It is actively discouraging healthy debate by simply not sticking to reality.

Quin_Dub

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Isn't there like a 50:50 split between leave and remain support?

VinLieger wrote: »

That still doesnt mean each argument or side is equally valid and therefore should be given the same time when one is based in fact and one is based on lies fueling emotion.


Thats like saying 2+2=4 but we know half the people in a room don't believe that so we have an expert mathematician and this 2+2=8 theorist who has no qualifications bar watching youtube videos on the subject, they will be presented to the room as being equivalently qualified and then both be given equal time to argue their positions cus fairness....

Also as pointed out above cus everyone who voted leave voted for something different its far from being a simply 50/50 split in brexit debates. No deal should never be presented as representing 52% of the country

This is exactly the point..

Yes - 52% voted leave , but when they voted that could have meant multiple things (and they were told it did).

Today however , Disaster Democracy advocates like Jacob Rees-Mogg are getting equal airtime as other more moderate positions and that is not reflective of reality.

In fact , I'd be fairly confident in saying that the single largest consolidated opinion prevailing in the UK right now is Remain.

48% of people voted Remain , they represent a plurality of the UK right now , the various flavours of leave are much much smaller fractions of that.

Havockk

Hurrache wrote: »

The trade talks and soft diplomacy continues to go swimmingly.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1095966234326327296?s=19

Just the latest signal that the UK government is in full-blown paralysis mode. I read Wiliamsons words about 'hard power' and chuckled at them, but it's just too funny to now learn that there were trade talks due with China at the same time.

Enzokk

Happy Valentines Day. Lets see how the Home Office under Theresa May thought was appropriate to celebrate this day in 2013.

https://twitter.com/ukhomeoffice/status/302095617092632576

'#Rosesareredvioletsareblue, if your marriage is a sham we’ll be on to you: http://flic.kr/p/88ZNcq #happyvalentinesday'

Zubeneschamali

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Isn't there like a 50:50 split between leave and remain support?

There is now, after 20 years of the media presenting Leave as a real thing.

10000maniacs

downcow wrote: »

I am just watching Bertie on the chair on rte 1 news. My surprise is that you guys complain about UK media supporting Brexit (which I think is nonsense) but on rte 1 the interviewer should have sat closer to Bertie with her arm around him for their love-in. That would never be tolerated on UK TV. It was remarkable as she even laughed in agreement at the stupid UK. I rarely watch rte news but i was shocked at the absence of a single challenge, it was like she was interviewing her grandfather.

Bertie needs to be challenged on a lot of things, mainly the economy, but I think he got the peace process stuff right. He with Blair and Mitchell set out a pragmatic and logical way forward that unionism could not dismiss or oppose.
He reached out with the hand of friendship to unionism and that meant a lot at the time, and probably made the difference to getting the GFA over the line.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

The problem with that is that you don't know that they are empty or even TIR unless you check first. Iirc, TIR containers have (as well as the TIR sign) a customs seal on the lock.

But that is a much simpler and quicker check (look at seal or take a peek inside empty truck) vs. check that the items in the truck match the paperwork. And at the French side the TIR empty trucks can be mostly waved through, away from the port and congestion at Customs.

Leroy42

Saw this retweet and thought is was pretty interesting in terms of the long term damage that is being done to the UK.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1095984672515993600

With the latest GDP figures released recently, a recession looks very much on the cards for the UK, which would tie in with the predictions prior to the vote. it seems that the predictions overegged the speed that things would change, probably not forseeing the chaos from the UK government which meant that no outcome can be ruled in or out even at this stage

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

With the latest GDP figures released recently, a recession looks very much on the cards for the UK

Cue the Brexiteer script: "We always knew there would be a temporary effect, this is mostly down to May's Remoaner dithering, after Brexit certainty will return and global powerhouse unfettered freedom blah blah."

lawred2

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I mean... where do you start with that?

You can start with something like 'Project Fear'

Then something about US 'experts' being more trustworthy than EU 'experts' because we fought with Uncle Sam in the war and these EU experts probably had grandfathers who helped Hitler develop the V2 rocket

MrMusician18

Quin_Dub wrote: »

But here's the thing about balance in the media - It's usually not balanced.

As an example - Climate change.

If you wanted to have a truly "balanced" climate change debate then it should be set up with 1 person on the "Climate change denier" side and 9 on the "No , it's real" side as that is truly reflective of the realistic state of the world.

So where's the balance in the current debate around the deal/no-deal?

The No-Deal people account for a very small % of the HOC (maybe 20%) , so a Media debate should probably me something like a 4:1 ratio in support of a deal of some kind. Not equal , not at all.

TL;DR - Giving alternative opinions a voice in the discussion is all well and good , but that should not mean that they are given a equal weight to the majority opinions.. Each position should be given the time and space based on their actual levels of support..

Giving every crack-pot "equal" time just skews reality..

This is really just moaning since the remain argument is not getting traction. Would you be complaining if general leave arguments were not getting 50% air time since soft/hard leave did win the referendum? I doubt it.

While no deal might amount to a small amount of people in the HoC it is a sizeable cohort of the population.

MrMusician18

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Cue the Brexiteer script: "We always knew there would be a temporary effect, this is mostly down to May's Remoaner dithering, after Brexit certainty will return and global powerhouse unfettered freedom blah blah."

It would be fair to say that the post referendum effect on the UK has not been as pronounced as predicted and this hasn't helped with the credibility of those that argue for the UK to remain.

The question will be whether the UK suffers a an immediate visible setback or whether the damage to the UK is in the form of missed opportunities. If it's the latter, it's much easier to live with.

eagle eye

Quin_Dub wrote:

In fact , I'd be fairly confident in saying that the single largest consolidated opinion prevailing in the UK right now is Remain.

I'd disagree. I was over there in London and Birmingham a couple of weeks ago and was very surprised at how many of the people I talked to were all for Brexit even now. There were definitely more that want to leave. Big difference in the opinion in London and Birmingham.
A sizeable majority of this I spoke to in Birmingham were pro-Brexit, in London it was only a slight majority in favour of remain.
That's based on chatting to close to 200 people about it. I realise it's a drop in the ocean but I was speaking to lot of business people and engineers. I was really surprised how many were pro-Brexit.

BonnieSituation

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The combination of the FPTP for Westminster and d'Hondt PR for the Euro elections has also been a problem, with zero Ukippers in Parliament but 10% of MEPs coming from UKIP.


The UKIP people have a valid complaint about not being represented in Westminster, which may have been part of the reason why the BBC wanted to give them airtime despite being bonkers.

There's another argument that despite that, they are still over represented in society. Brits see the EU assume far off thing so voting for ukip in EP elections seemed to be of little consequence.

That's why I have always thought that even with a PR system ukip's vote would go down as they might get into parliament which will focus the minds of not wasting a vote on something for a protest.

That's my 2 cents anyway.

LuckyLloyd

eagle eye wrote: »

I'd disagree. I was over there in London and Birmingham a couple of weeks ago and was very surprised at how many of the people I talked to were all for Brexit even now. There were definitely more that want to leave. Big difference in the opinion in London and Birmingham.
A sizeable majority of this I spoke to in Birmingham were pro-Brexit, in London it was only a slight majority in favour of remain.
That's based on chatting to close to 200 people about it. I realise it's a drop in the ocean but I was speaking to lot of business people and engineers. I was really surprised how many were pro-Brexit.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Post-referendum_polling

This is another conversation where we don't have to waste time on anecdotal perceptions. The polling trends since the referendum are extremely clear. Remain is the one consistent predictable bloc of both the electorate and the commons.

The notion of a second referendum and its political impact and toxicity is a separate topic. One should not confuse the other.

Quin_Dub

eagle eye wrote: »

I'd disagree. I was over there in London and Birmingham a couple of weeks ago and was very surprised at how many of the people I talked to were all for Brexit even now. There were definitely more that want to leave. Big difference in the opinion in London and Birmingham.
A sizeable majority of this I spoke to in Birmingham were pro-Brexit, in London it was only a slight majority in favour of remain.
That's based on chatting to close to 200 people about it. I realise it's a drop in the ocean but I was speaking to lot of business people and engineers. I was really surprised how many were pro-Brexit.

My point was that there are actually probably at least 5 different viewpoints prevailing in the UK right now.

• Remain
• No-Deal Brexit
• WA - Brexit
• New Deal Brexit minus backstop
• New-Deal Brexit with SM and/or CU access

And probably a few more flavours of leave. Given the fractured nature of the leave side , the point I made I think is still valid , Remain is the single largest block of people.

It may or may not be an overall majority right now , but it is inarguable that it is a plurality of the voters. And given the FPTP voting system in the UK , it's somewhat ironic that that is the case.

eagle eye

LuckyLloyd wrote:

This is another conversation where we don't have to waste time on anecdotal perceptions. The polling trends since the referendum are extremely clear. Remain is the one consistent predictable bloc of both the electorate and the commons.

Latest poll Sky data, 41% say right decision, 43% wrong decision and a whopping 16% undecided.

None of those polls give a majority to either side. As I said I don't think opinions have changed much.

Baggly

You are missing the point eagle eye. The point that was made was that the remainers have 1 consolidated desire - to stay in the EU. And they can all get behind that and agree thats what they want.

The remain all have varying different desires to leave at different levels. Some want complete separation; some want a little bit; some want half and half etc etc. The block of that 41% is itself massively divided in what it wants; to the point that you cant really call it a block.

So while more people than you expect might say they want to leave, if you were to go into what type of leaving they want i doubt you could get many of them to agree with each other.

eagle eye

Quin_Dub wrote:

My point was that there are actually probably at least 5 different viewpoints prevailing in the UK right now. Remain No-Deal Brexit WA - Brexit New Deal Brexit minus backstop New-Deal Brexit with SM and/or CU access And probably a few more flavours of leave. Given the fractured nature of the leave side , the point I made I think is still valid , Remain is the single largest block of people.

Ok, yes they are probably the largest block.
I don't know if it came to another vote that things would change though.

Quin_Dub

MrMusician18 wrote: »

This is really just moaning since the remain argument is not getting traction. Would you be complaining if general leave arguments were not getting 50% air time since soft/hard leave did win the referendum? I doubt it.

While no deal might amount to a small amount of people in the HoC it is a sizeable cohort of the population.

I think you are missing the point a little.

If a majority still support leave , then fine , but weighted equal time should be given to each variation of leave along with remain.

Where are the interviews with the "Accept the WA as is" supporters (either in HOC or not) for example? or those that want to remain in either the SM or CU ?

The reporting and debate is polarised and skewed in my view , regardless of your viewpoint.

listermint

This is an incredibly interesting feed from Carole Cadwalladr the only journalist who continues to look at foreign involvement in this entire mess with the backing of Senior Tory Party Members and insiders .

As i said all along, there is Russian Money awash in this mess and disaster capitalists are in glee. The only people going to get absolutely hammered is the working man/woman

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1095821913094524928

MrMusician18

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I think you are missing the point a little.

If a majority still support leave , then fine , but weighted equal time should be given to each variation of leave along with remain.

Where are the interviews with the "Accept the WA as is" supporters (either in HOC or not) for example? or those that want to remain in either the SM or CU ?

The reporting and debate is polarised and skewed in my view , regardless of your viewpoint.

There are plenty of interviews/tv spots with government ministers that back the WA. TM is on the news every day.

It's not realistic for every broadcaster to have 10 guests, three arguing for a second referendum, two arguing to withdraw art. 50, two for an EEA exit, two for no deal and one for the WA.

Every view should be heard and is it not up to people to determine whether what they are saying is nonsense or not.

10000maniacs

Andrew “As an English person, I do have the right to go over to Ireland and I believe that I can ask for a passport. Can't I?” Bridgen all over the BBC news channel again today.
Maybe one of the reasons why the UK are dangling on the edge of a cliff currently is the BBC giving substantial airtime to clueless politicians like Bridgen.

Havockk

listermint wrote: »

This is an incredibly interesting feed from Carole Cadwalladr the only journalist who continues to look at foreign involvement in this entire mess with the backing of Senior Tory Party Members and insiders .

As i said all along, there is Russian Money awash in this mess and disaster capitalists are in glee. The only people going to get absolutely hammered is the working man/woman

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1095821913094524928

That thread is incredible. This is the same woman whom Neil, the flagship BBC host, calls a 'crazy woman' and 'Karol Kodswallop'. Starting to look more like a coup.

LuckyLloyd

eagle eye wrote: »

Latest poll Sky data, 41% say right decision, 43% wrong decision and a whopping 16% undecided.

None of those polls give a majority to either side. As I said I don't think opinions have changed much.

Again, there is a clear trend in both types of polls (right / wrong; remain / leave). The information is self evident, not exactly difficult to interpret. Opinion has changed, and remain is a constant defined concept or position. "Leave" has never been and it's negotiated definition, i.e. the Withdrawal Agreement, seems to be dissatisfactory for Leavers.