Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

downcow

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Watching the video of Bertie at the HoC committee: can't stand the man but he's doing well.
Had to laugh at his comment on how technology has advanced so much in then last 20 years, sure even revenue have progressed so much!

I am just watching Bertie on the chair on rte 1 news. My surprise is that you guys complain about UK media supporting Brexit (which I think is nonsense) but on rte 1 the interviewer should have sat closer to Bertie with her arm around him for their love-in. That would never be tolerated on UK TV. It was remarkable as she even laughed in agreement at the stupid UK. I rarely watch rte news but i was shocked at the absence of a single challenge, it was like she was interviewing her grandfather.

bob mcbob

downcow wrote: »

Lets park Project Fear etc. for a moment
what do you guys really think life will be like in NI (and indeed in ROI) in 2 years if we have a no deal on 29th March? I am curious!

Well then the right wingers of the Tory party would have won. They have then promised abolish tariffs on food imports. They will probably need to do this in order keep society stable.

This will probably wipe out a large number of farmers - 25% in the first year I have seen written somewhere.

What are your views on this scenario?

briany

downcow wrote: »

Lets park Project Fear etc. for a moment
what do you guys really think life will be like in NI (and indeed in ROI) in 2 years if we have a no deal on 29th March? I am curious!

As far as NI goes, politics is bound to become even more polarised. And that's bad when you consider that Stormont is currently collapsed. How are Sinn Fein and the DUP going to get around the table with a hard border hanging over their heads. I fail to see how it could end in anything less than a bout of mutual finger-pointing. And it's not as if the Conservative party can pretend to act as neutral facilitators when they've been shown to be quite clearly hand in glove with the DUP, with members appearing at a DUP conference, and May really leaning on that full title, "The Conservative & Unionist Party".

The economic fallout is not something to be looked forward to in the Republic, but Brexit is not something that RoI asked for. The great majority of us down here were perfectly happy with things as they had stood. There'll be a bit of finger pointing between RoI parties over how Leo handled the situation, but there seems to be a general agreement that it's better to push for a backstop, even if that attempt fails, rather than agree to some half-baked UK solution that could turn into a hard border anyway.

Wouldn't it be ironic that if the political, economic and social landscape in the UK broke down to the point that people there stop thinking about not letting people in and more about how to get out? In that case, those up North should hope the border's not too hard.

jochenstacker

Folkstonian wrote: »

If people don’t get the course of action they voted for, they will simply give up with the democratic process for evermore

Imagine you're buying an iPhone X off Adverts. You find out beforehand that there is no iPhone, it's just an old Nokia in an iPhone box.
Do you then say "even though I was duped and I agreed to buy the phone based on false information, I never go back on my decisions, so I will take the deal"?
The very opposite of democracy is to cling to a decision, knowing it's the wrong one.
U Turns may be embarrassing for politicians, buy why do you think they do them?
Because it's better to turn around from a decision and lose a bit of face, rather than steer knowingly into disaster, because of, well, stupidity.
There is no nicer way of putting it.
Anyone who knowingly steers the Titanic into the iceberg because they don't have the brains, guts or imagination to turn around and say "whoops, I messed up" is the very definition of mindless stupidity.

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

Lets park Project Fear etc. for a moment

It's not a thing outside the paranoia of some so no need to park it.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

My Internet skills aren't brilliant admittedly,its that rather than me trying to irritate people.
One thing I have learned from this forum is not to automatically believe the BBC or British press so I do try to find a reference of things on European sites as well,I have noticed a few references to Germany being unhappy with the brexit situation.

It'd be more noteworthy if somebody said they were happy with it.

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

I am just watching Bertie on the chair on rte 1 news. My surprise is that you guys complain about UK media supporting Brexit (which I think is nonsense) but on rte 1 the interviewer should have sat closer to Bertie with her arm around him for their love-in. That would never be tolerated on UK TV. It was remarkable as she even laughed in agreement at the stupid UK. I rarely watch rte news but i was shocked at the absence of a single challenge, it was like she was interviewing her grandfather.

You get more bizarre, have you forgotten pretty much every interview on UK TV, bar one or two notable exceptions, with a Brexiteer?

Plus what did you want him challenged on?

Bit cynical

downcow wrote: »

Lets park Project Fear etc. for a moment
what do you guys really think life will be like in NI (and indeed in ROI) in 2 years if we have a no deal on 29th March? I am curious!

I would say things will be difficult in the immediate few months after a no deal Brexit. Then there will be a period of adaptation leading to a new normal. This adaptation will be the case in ROI, NI and the UK mainland. I think there will be pressure on ROI to maintain a firm stance on the backstop, however behind the scenes there will be cooperation and coordination with NI and UK authorities to ease the burden of the border. These measures will be low key so as to not upset the zealots. The GFA (which has been a bit of a red herring in all this) will survive as will the various aspects of the CTA and reciprocal rights to work and vote between the two jurisdictions.

spacecoyote

RobMc59 wrote: »

My Internet skills aren't brilliant admittedly,its that rather than me trying to irritate people.
One thing I have learned from this forum is not to automatically believe the BBC or British press so I do try to find a reference of things on European sites as well,I have noticed a few references to Germany being unhappy with the brexit situation.

Sorry, but who did you actually think is happy with the current Brexit situation?

The only group popping to mind at the end are the ERG crew. No One in Europe wants a crash out Brexit.

prawnsambo

downcow wrote: »

Lets park Project Fear etc. for a moment
what do you guys really think life will be like in NI (and indeed in ROI) in 2 years if we have a no deal on 29th March? I am curious!

Assuming that the SoS for NI refuses all calls for a UI vote, NI will have switched the lights off about 18 months before and all moved south of the border except the civil servants who will remain behind because otherwise they wouldn't get paid and the DUP for much the same reasons.

prawnsambo

Folkstonian wrote: »

This analogy has long been discredited as being far too simplistic. How many country clubs pay their members to stay as a part of the club?

Many EU countries, including this one until recently, have been in exactly this position. It’s not particularly edifying to continue using this comparison

It's not actually that bad an analogy. Because junior members are often subject to reduced (effectively subsidised) rates. Swap junior members for fledgling economies and you've got the same thing.

listermint

downcow wrote: »

Lets park Project Fear etc. for a moment
what do you guys really think life will be like in NI (and indeed in ROI) in 2 years if we have a no deal on 29th March? I am curious!

Have you watched alvedansen pet?

Correction. 'Auf Weidersehn, Pet'


Well it's like that but you'll have a load of lads from Ballymena down in Dublin for work

L1011

listermint wrote: »

Have you watched alvedansen pet?


Well it's like that but you'll have a load of lads from Ballymena down in Dublin for work

Auf Weidersehn, Pet I think (no, I didn't google that so its probably still wrong)

listermint

Folkstonian wrote: »

It’s people like you and views like this that wore me down and really turned me off the idea of a second campaign and a second referendum.

People had legitimate concerns and reasons for voting to leave. It’s a fact. You may not agree, or at least you may not believe their reasons hold the same importance as reasons for remaining, but they do exist. To call them stupid, to be so rude and divisive, is utterly tiresome.

The thing that particularly grates is that vocal pro-remain campaigners have often carried on like they have a monopoly on civility and moral virtue. So many of them are as bad as the other lot, if not worse.

The last thing Britain needs is to relive the last campaign, because a large number of people can’t control themselves or the urge to be uncivil

Here's the thing.

And perhaps this might stick but I suspect not.

If all the nations in the world think brexiteers are nothing more than idiots and they are all collectively looking on and saying what the hell are you doing.

Then surely that has to start ringing some bloody bells.

Forget the EU for a minute and your own personal distaste for it, which you've been at pains to gloss over and pretend it isn't there but it's poked itself out various times.

There isn't a nation on this planet that said great idea lads or you'll really make a run of things now you are free.

Why ? Because there is no legitimacy to the grievances none zilch zero. All of the problems in the UK are home grown and compounded by back to back mainly Torie governments with a handy blame game way out for all their ills by pointing the finger.

And just because you have gotten your back up about remainers giving you facts and pointing out that leaving is quite Literally a clowns idea doesn't mean a jot. Its high time brexit supporters are called out hit with facts called out again hit with facts asked to explain themselves over and over.

The fact the national broadcaster isn't doing this is a shining indictment of the Tory power that's at play. And that quite frankly is more concerning to me and actually bloody well perplexing how it's not a concern for you considering the middle of the road attitude you've been at pains to paint here.


Nuff from me on that . Il leave the opinions to the senior government leaders from any nation you can point to in the UN

listermint

L1011 wrote: »

Auf Weidersehn, Pet I think (no, I didn't google that so its probably still wrong)

You win and I have shown my exposed German

VinLieger

downcow wrote: »

I am just watching Bertie on the chair on rte 1 news. My surprise is that you guys complain about UK media supporting Brexit (which I think is nonsense) but on rte 1 the interviewer should have sat closer to Bertie with her arm around him for their love-in. That would never be tolerated on UK TV. It was remarkable as she even laughed in agreement at the stupid UK. I rarely watch rte news but i was shocked at the absence of a single challenge, it was like she was interviewing her grandfather.

Except it happens all the time on the BBC with brexiteers not being challaneged on their lies, emma barnett confronting digby jones being the only time ive seen it happening.

Also what specifically should he have been challenged on? Hes not in power, he has no stake in any of this beyond being one of the major people involved in the GFA and wanting peace to be maintained.

RobMc59

spacecoyote wrote: »

Sorry, but who did you actually think is happy with the current Brexit situation?

The only group popping to mind at the end are the ERG crew. No One in Europe wants a crash out Brexit.

I was asking what other posters thought about possible German desire to compromise with the UK..

An Ciarraioch

RobMc59 wrote: »

I was asking what other posters thought about possible German desire to compromise with the UK..

If it were Heiko Maas (the Foreign Minister) commenting, then it would be a matter about which to take note.

An Ciarraioch

Ireland has opened its first embassy in Chile - FTA already in place, but should help with trade:

http://twitter.com/IrlEmbChile/status/1095392870058655744

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

British ex-pat who voted for Brexit before moving to Spain now shocked it could affect her right to live there!

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47214093

Spain doesn't allow dual nationality. As Windrush showed living in a country for 30 years doesn't necessarily mean it's easy to stay.


On top of all of that new pension rules will clawback 25% of what's going overseas from the end of next year or thereabouts.

And don't expect the Spanish government to spend much time or money on the ex-pats before Brexit day.
Spanish PM to announce snap election soon after budget vote:
If there's a election then it would be from April 14th onwards.

CelticRambler

First Up wrote: »

The ISIS amateurs (and professionals) tend not to be EU citizens.

'round here they are! French and Belgians, mainly. :cool:

spacecoyote wrote: »

If it is demonstrably proven that people voted for something on the basis of a campaign of lies, exaggerations & false promises, would it not be a more democratic process to ask the people again to either reaffirm their view that they were happy to leave, knowing the reality of what it means, or if they now feel differently given they have a more informed view?

How someone can call that undemocratic, I don't know.

Isn't this the natural, if arguably undemocratic, outcome of FPTP? In almost all UK elections, there are so many "safe" seats that a large part of the electorate are effectively disenfranchised. They have been born and reared in an environment where it's normal to consider half the votes cast as "wasted" - unless you treat it as a symbolic protest and give it to the Monster Raving Loony Party or whatever.

If that's all you've ever known, and then a seriously serious referendum comes along, it's all too easy for that symbolic protest to turn into a mandate for the government to embark on a pathway of raving lunacy.

Capt'n Midnight

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In addition, heads of various security agencies have said that Brexit will weaken anti-terrorist collaboration between the UK and the EU.

The UK police only use the Schengen Information System II 539,000,000 times a year.

If the UK is excluded from the European Arrest Warrant system, which drives the extradition of up to 10,000 foreign offenders every year, it will have to fall back on a 1957 European Convention causing lengthy delays for court orders to be obtained.

I can remember when the UK used to mess up the paperwork on extradition requests from here.

Hurrache

Knock knock, we're waiting
https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1095747108521627649?s=19

Valhallapt

This is a great thread, lots of really informative posts! Thanks to all the contributors so far.

I’m wondering what’s happens on D1ND with the land bridge, a disproportional amount of freight goes to the continent via UK.

While there may well be a huge increase in queue lengths, paperwork etc. I don’t think it will be Armageddon on entering the UK. But eurotunnel / calais / Dover will go into complete meltdown, the sheer volume of traffic is at breaking point today. The French will not waive the new checks and tail backs will run into days. Even if Irish traffic is allowed to transit with out checks it’s still going to get badly snarled up.

So my question is what capacity is there in direct ferries to France / Spain / zebrugge to divert all this traffic? Is there enough capacity today, has the government helped to put on more capacity, are haulage providers making adequate plans. Is this like a tap, after seeing bad delays in Calais, can ferry companies double / treble capacity overnight?

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Spain doesn't allow dual nationality. As Windrush showed living in a country for 30 years doesn't necessarily mean it's easy to stay.


On top of all of that new pension rules will clawback 25% of what's going overseas from the end of next year or thereabouts.

And don't expect the Spanish government to spend much time or money on the ex-pats before Brexit day.
Spanish PM to announce snap election soon after budget vote:
If there's a election then it would be from April 14th onwards.

And they won't be eligible for the EHIC. So either pay in Spain or head back to blighty for treatment.



You could say that "The pain in Spain is mainly on the planes"

First Up

CelticRambler wrote: »

'round here they are! French and Belgians, mainly. :cool:


.

French and Belgians who originated in the former colonies. The UK has plenty such of its own.

prawnsambo

Valhallapt wrote: »

This is a great thread, lots of really informative posts! Thanks to all the contributors so far.

I’m wondering what’s happens on D1ND with the land bridge, a disproportional amount of freight goes to the continent via UK.

While there may well be a huge increase in queue lengths, paperwork etc. I don’t think it will be Armageddon on entering the UK. But eurotunnel / calais / Dover will go into complete meltdown, the sheer volume of traffic is at breaking point today. The French will not waive the new checks and tail backs will run into days. Even if Irish traffic is allowed to transit with out checks it’s still going to get badly snarled up.

So my question is what capacity is there in direct ferries to France / Spain / zebrugge to divert all this traffic? Is there enough capacity today, has the government helped to put on more capacity, are haulage providers making adequate plans. Is this like a tap, after seeing bad delays in Calais, can ferry companies double / treble capacity overnight?

These two monsters have been tasked to become the landbridge (among others). The French made a bit of a fuss and they are in the process now of making special arrangements for Irish traffic too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN0z4DP90I4

Hurrache

On the subject of ferries, remember the insistence that a full due diligence was done on Seaborne before they were awarded the contract? And people here still get upset when we point out the ineptitude.

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1095660033990373376?s=19

Valhallapt

prawnsambo wrote: »

These two monsters have been tasked to become the landbridge (among others). The French made a bit of a fuss and they are in the process now of making special arrangements for Irish traffic too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN0z4DP90I4

Were those two ROROs on the roadmap before Brexit or are they in direct response to Brexit?

Also anything on the shorter France crossing?

prawnsambo

Valhallapt wrote: »

Were those two ROROs on the roadmap before Brexit or are they in direct response to Brexit?

Also anything on the shorter France crossing?

Afaik they were brought in as a direct result of the EU realignment of the North Sea - Mediterranean corridor (removing the landbridge). The French side of things is late to the game, so only the sketchiest of details atm.