Donald Trump presidency discussion thread V

26000 Elephants

Penn wrote: »

Mueller has shown he's the man for the job, but they need to have it all sown up before any charges are brought against him.

There is a very carefully coordinated, multi agency case being prepared against Trump: But he has equally powerful supporters at every level of government. The genius of Mueller is the slow, precise manner he is closing off all Trumps possible escape routes before he tackles "Individual #1" himself.

One agency who are suspiciously quiet in all this is the IRS. I suspect that they are sitting on the sidelines taking copious notes!

DrumSteve

Deleted User wrote: »

The next presidential campaign will be an absolute circus.

And, I for one, cannot wait.

everlast75

So the lady accused of being a russian spy, infiltrating the NRA, and the one that conspicuously asked the then candidate Trump for the first time on the trail about Russian sanctions, appears to have struck a deal with the prosecutors..

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1072156485105475584

check_six

What are the limits of the Presidential Pardon power? And what was it intended for? The current incumbent seems to be willing to fire out pardon promises for cronies who keep shtum. I can't imagine that the intention for this power was for a president to cover their own butt.
I mean, a limitless power could potentially have assassinations ordered with a promise of a pardon for the perpetrator, in theory.

duploelabs

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Oh, He'll run alright..

GOP will not impeach him , simple as that - Or at least not until his popularity with GOP voters falls off a cliff , which has not happened yet..

He will run because being President could possibly be the only thing to keep him out if jail if everything we are hearing and surmising from the Mueller investigation comes to pass.

If he wins , then he's golden , if he loses then as previously mentioned he pulls the "resign 10 minutes early" trick and Pence pardons him.

The downside to the second option is that there will likely be lots of State level charges waiting for him that a POTUS can't pardon.

But bottom line , Trumps ONLY chance of survival is re-election and he will do anything and everything to try to achieve that.

That is the real concern - What would he be willing to do to survive??

John Brennan doesn't seem to think he'll run

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/420515-brennan-shreds-trump-i-am-relieved-that-you-will-never-have-the

Itssoeasy

check_six wrote: »

What are the limits of the Presidential Pardon power? And what was it intended for? The current incumbent seems to be willing to fire out pardon promises for cronies who keep shtum. I can't imagine that the intention for this power was for a president to cover their own butt.
I mean, a limitless power could potentially have assassinations ordered with a promise of a pardon for the perpetrator, in theory.

I'd have to read it again but I think it's more or less limitless except when it comes to impeachment cases. There is the question about whether a sitting US president can pardon themselves, which was considered by nixon but from memory the advice he was given at the time to the question of it was a bit iffy, and that people kind of weren't sure.

DrumSteve

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I'd have to read it again but I think it's more or less limitless except when it comes to impeachment cases. There is the question about whether a sitting US president can pardon themselves, which was considered by nixon but from memory the advice he was given at the time to the question of it was a bit iffy, and that people kind of weren't sure.

Imagine the optics though; the president is basically saying the law they expect others to obey is not applicable to them.

spacecoyote

check_six wrote: »

What are the limits of the Presidential Pardon power? And what was it intended for? The current incumbent seems to be willing to fire out pardon promises for cronies who keep shtum. I can't imagine that the intention for this power was for a president to cover their own butt.
I mean, a limitless power could potentially have assassinations ordered with a promise of a pardon for the perpetrator, in theory.

Coincidentally, 538 published an article about it just this morning which covers off some of your points:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-it-might-be-impossible-to-overturn-a-presidential-pardon/

Re Butina, presumably Vlad wouldn't be overjoyed to hear about her turning either, would need to have some pretty serious protections in place if she is willing to give evidence (unless Vlad is done & dusted with all things Don)

check_six

Was there a Nixon quote that was something along the lines of "When the President does it, it's not illegal"?

Professor Moriarty

spacecoyote wrote: »

Coincidentally, 538 published an article about it just this morning which covers off some of your points:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-it-might-be-impossible-to-overturn-a-presidential-pardon/

Re Butina, presumably Vlad wouldn't be overjoyed to hear about her turning either, would need to have some pretty serious protections in place if she is willing to give evidence (unless Vlad is done & dusted with all things Don)

Eyes peeled for Novichok.

jooksavage

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That is the real concern - What would he be willing to do to survive??

This IS a concern and goes beyond inane Twitter dribblings. The man with a nuclear arsenal at his fingertips clearly has a severe personality disorder and seems increasingly incapable of ordered, rational thinking. We can only hope that Mathis will still be in place if Trump's reelection campaign starts turning to sh**.

DrumSteve

check_six wrote: »

Was there a Nixon quote that was something along the lines of "When the President does it, it's not illegal"?

Yep, your paraphrasing a bit but it's from his David Frost interview if a remember correctly.

Itssoeasy

DrumSteve wrote: »

Imagine the optics though; the president is basically saying the law they expect others to obey is not applicable to them.

Do you think Trump cares about optics and how it would look though ? The man clearly doesn't from everything I've seen of him. I mean he tweeted that the court documents released Friday vindicated him. Now you can debate in what ways it hurt or helped Trump, but he's the only one who sees it as complete vindication.
But this opinion(and is it just that) that a sitting US president can't be indicted is really saving Trumps skin here. The former VP spiro Agnew in 1973 was apparently begging the Congress to start impeachment proceedings against him, in it seems a way to stop the problems outside his office of Vice President.

Itssoeasy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Eyes peeled for Novichok.

Yeah I'd be wary of Russian wise men barring gifts.

DrumSteve

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Do you think Trump cares about optics and how it would look though ? The man clearly doesn't from everything I've seen of him. I mean he tweeted that the court documents released Friday vindicated him. Now you can debate in what ways it hurt or helped Trump, but he's the only one who sees it as complete vindication.
But this opinion(and is it just that) that a sitting US president can't be indicted is really saving Trumps skin here. The former VP spiro Agnew in 1973 was apparently begging the Congress to start impeachment proceedings against him, in it seems a way to stop the problems outside his office of Vice President.

True, I don't think he cares. And his base won't either.

Interesting precedent to set though.

Itssoeasy

DrumSteve wrote: »

Yep, your paraphrasing a bit but it's from his David Frost interview if a remember correctly.

It was from the frost interviews.

BabyCheeses

DrumSteve wrote: »

And, I for one, cannot wait.

He can even reuse all of his old sayings. Build the wall, lock her up, drain the swamp, make america great again.



His supporters can pretend that everything he did was for show and second term Trump will be completely different to first term Trump, who turned out to be the same as candidate Trump despite claims that it would be different but this time it's for real.

mcmoustache

everlast75 wrote: »

So the lady accused of being a russian spy, infiltrating the NRA, and the one that conspicuously asked the then candidate Trump for the first time on the trail about Russian sanctions, appears to have struck a deal with the prosecutors..

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1072156485105475584

The NRA were coordinating their messaging with the Trump campaign during the election. That's illegal on the face of it but if the NRA was as infested with Oligarch money as it's beginning to appear, then this starts to look a bit worse.

circadian

Trump resigning to get a pardon is a risky move. Given his behaviour in public I can't imagine it's any better in the Whitehouse, then Pence may well let Trump hang himself to agreeing to a pardon but never actually granting it.

Hockney

Can the GOP just not give him the nomination even if he does want to run?

If so what's the chances of it happening? Surely they've lost enough credibility and there'd be an appetite for cutting their losses?

serfboard

circadian wrote: »

Pence may well let Trump hang himself to agreeing to a pardon but never actually granting it.

That would be hilarious - the last act of a man who thought he could get away with one more con.

Thargor

B0jangles wrote: »

No, no, it's not that he can't spell simple words, it's the lead into a bit of 'clever' wordplay:

MUELLER REPORT IS A TOTAL STITCH UP

JUST TRYING TO PIN DEMOCRAT CRIMES ON TRUMP

For Forks Sake wrote: »

He hasn't had his morning covfefe yet.

He spelled it the same way in a deleted tweet last year aswell, it must actually be how he thinks smoking is spelled, the guy is mentally defective.

Igotadose

Various democratic party leaders saying Trump's directions to Cohen constitute impeachable offenses: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/12/rep-schiff-trump-may-face-the-real-prospect-of-jail-time.html

I don't buy it. Nixon's Watergate offenses were impeachable because they were committed while he was President. Trump wasn't President so his offenses are "merely" criminal. I'd think that crimes committed while in office were impeachable, but not prior. I don't know, though, the Constitution talks about high crimes and misdemeanors by the President et al being reasons for impeachment - but this round of pleas talk about events prior to the election. Still, there's always the intent, and if Trump indeed solicited help from Russia, that's treason. So if it's found that he indeed did, and somehow the sycophantic GOP votes to impeach, it'll still get challenged to the SC. At least while that's going on, Trump probably won't be 'in office,' again a gray area legally.

serfboard

Igotadose wrote: »

if Trump indeed solicited help from Russia, that's treason.

Here you go:

Donald Trump wrote:

Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing

Duck Soup

Help me out here. Why was Flynn recommended to serve pretty much no time and Michael Cohen recommended to serve a long stint? Both sang like canaries apparently.

Because Cohen lied to investigators initially? Does that suggest they're going to drop a piano on Manafort?

SimonTemplar

Trump may run but will he win the primary. If there is a strong enough alternative, GoP may finally abandon him, especially if Mueller's final report is damning.

Itssoeasy

Duck Soup wrote: »

Help me out here. Why was Flynn recommended to serve pretty much no time and Michael Cohen recommended to serve a long stint? Both sang like canaries apparently.

Because Cohen lied to investigators initially? Does that suggest they're going to drop a piano on Manafort?

It was the SDNY who threw the book at Cohen, not mueller. The Special prosecutor seems to willing to go easy in terms of jail sentences if you play ball. The SDNY not so much it seems.

everlast75

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It was the SDNY who threw the book at Cohen, not mueller. The Special prosecutor seems to willing to go easy in terms of jail sentences if you play ball. The SDNY not so much it seems.

Mueller will be throwing the book at Manafort, believe me, so it isn't exclusive to the SNDY.

Flynn appears to have been cooperating fully with Mueller so, like Cohen, he is being looked after.

Cohen did not enter into a cooperation agreement with the SDNY. He did assist but only after they caught him lying. They would have taken it easier on him if he had entered into such an agreement, but that agreement is quite intense. You need to spill the beans on all of your crimes, and crimes you were privy to. Various rumours as to who Cohen would not want to tell on and that being the reason he avoided such an agreement.

serfboard

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It was the SDNY who threw the book at Cohen, not mueller. The Special prosecutor seems to willing to go easy in terms of jail sentences if you play ball. The SDNY not so much it seems.

Mueller would be well advised to gather as much evidence as he can, and pass it to Blue States' judicial systems.

That will eliminate Trump's pardoning power.

serfboard

everlast75 wrote: »

Various rumours as to who Cohen would not want to tell on and that being the reason he avoided such an agreement.

Yeah - lots of shady characters involved in that taxi cab business he was up to his neck in.