Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

LuckyLloyd

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That's because in 2017, they had won, they got Brexit passed a referendum, they had fulfilled their destiny. And as a party, they didn't really have any other policies to run on.

But in the Euro election of 2014, before the referendum, they got 25% of the vote and beat both Labour and the Tories. Which tells you that a lot of people who vote Tory or Labour for Westminster really can't stand the EU. can May sell a temporary Customs Union backstop to these voters?

Assuming Brexit is frustrated in the next couple of months, UKIP would have to reform and start all over again, but this time Brexit and its realities have been laid bare. They will get hammered in ways they never were up to 2015, and won't be as easily able to rely on sloganeering and religiosity.

Captain Obvious

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ConorMcMorrow/status/1052160343370293248

The Government will have to be clear and concise in the next while on it's arguments to prevent this gaining traction.

Howlin is right, there is always going to be some dissent if this threatens a deal.

Postponed til when? Do none of them realise how close this thing is? Any kind of hard border will require us to actually man it. We don't have the resources or will for that. Customs aren't hiring an extra few hundred officers between now and then and the Gardaí barely have enough manpower to run stations as it is.

charlie14

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Ukip has a huge national vote and its only the fptp system that keeps them out of parliament.

It would be a mistake to say that they are a small grouping.

Under a PR vote in the European Parliament election 2014 UKIP actually won the popular vote with 26.6% of the national vote and took 24 seats, a gain of 11. In the same election the Conservative Party vote was 23.1%. Their lowest ever percentage in a national election.


UKIP as a party may not hold much sway seat wise in Westminster but there national vote in 2014 certainly got the attention of the Tory party.

LeinsterDub

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Postponed til when? Do none of them realise how close this thing is? Any kind of hard border will require us to actually man it. We don't have the resources or will for that. Customs aren't hiring an extra few hundred officers between now and then and the Gardaí barely have enough manpower to run stations as it is.

Take the whole thing with a pinch of salt.

Howlin's presser 'according to someone who may or may not work in Europe and who may or may not be important and may or may not be in the know. The EU may or may not be looking at delaying the backstop'

bob mcbob

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think the concession of a UK wide backstop is really the problem. TM knows this is a perfect solution, but the EU are only willing to give it on the condition that the NI backstop is non time limited, whilst they all accept that the Uk wide one is purely temporary.

So to get the UK wide one, she has to accept the NI one. She doesn't want to be seen to give that, but she knows that the UK wide one is simply too good to let go. Basically, here is a solution to avoid a hard brexit and give the UK sufficient time to prepare for life outside the EU, but to get it you need to guarantee that the NI border is off the table.

That she chose to mock the EU with her 'insurance to the insurance' line betrays how seriously she knows this is.

My reading of it is that TM wants a "temporary" permanent solution but cannot say this as the ERG are against it.

The problem with the NI backstop is not just the DUP, if it were I think it would be manageable. The other problem is that the Scottish Tories (Davidson / Mundell - remainers both) have said they will resign if NI retains SM/CU while Scotland does not. If this happened the SNP would exploit it mercilessly and the Scottish Tories know this.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ConorMcMorrow/status/1052160343370293248

The Government will have to be clear and concise in the next while on it's arguments to prevent this gaining traction.

Howlin is right, there is always going to be some dissent if this threatens a deal.

That seems to have come out of nowhere. A German delegate member, according to this afternoons News at 1, today said that if there's no agreement on the backtop on the border in Ireland, there is no deal. So when someone from Germany says that, I would be sure that's the general thinking.

I couldn't be surprised if the contrary is being put out there by British diplomats, a bit of dark arts.

charlie14

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That's because in 2017, they had won, they got Brexit passed a referendum, they had fulfilled their destiny. And as a party, they didn't really have any other policies to run on.

But in the Euro election of 2014, before the referendum, they got 25% of the vote and beat both Labour and the Tories. Which tells you that a lot of people who vote Tory or Labour for Westminster really can't stand the EU. can May sell a temporary Customs Union backstop to these voters?

With no cabinet resignations this morning I`m getting a feeling that she can, and possibly already had sold a temporary Customs Union backstop to them, even if the might make grumbling noises late, but that her real problem is selling the NI border Single Market backstop as permanent and not temporary.

If Brendan Howlin is correct then I would suspect that their may be moves by some within the EU to facilitate her in that with the a temporary Single Market backstop as well. A total fudge, but then the art of the deal often is with a can being kicked down a road.

Zubeneschamali

Hurrache wrote: »

I couldn't be surprised if the contrary is being put out there by British diplomats, a bit of dark arts.

BREAKING: A "very dangerous" suggestion is being made in Europe that the Irish backstop issue should be postponed or deferred

It seems obvious that this suggestion is being made by the Brits.

MrMusician18

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Take the whole thing with a pinch of salt.

Howlin's presser 'according to someone who may or may not work in Europe and who may or may not be important and may or may not be in the know. The EU may or may not be looking at delaying the backstop'

Possibly Howling repeating third hand rumours to generate some coverage (to show he's doing something) after yet another disastrous IT poll for labour this morning.

That said, the carving off of the backstop could speak to some in the EU, particularly those who see that the real obstacle is government weakness in London. I'm not sure it's a great strategy though.

Hurrache

It's around in circles this is going.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1052167536484204544

lawred2

Who is the idea of postponing the Irish border gaining traction with?

Bulgaria?

Hurrache

This lad has his finger on the trigger ready to blame Ireland
https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1052168955199217665

Kermit.de.frog

Anyone see the Tory pup trying to educate Neale Richmond on BBC earlier?

He made reference that they made it illegal to put any sort of border in the Irish sea at Westminister.

Richmond should have told him we don't negotiate on the basis of backbenchers putting down ammendments during negotiations on what is legal and what is not.

Other than that Richmond handled it well.

The ignorance from some of these guys is eyewatering. The tory was making references to 'Secetaries of State for Ireland'.

They haven't got a clue.

An Ciarraioch

Barnier speaks out - time for the EU to press pause until London stops wrangling with itself?

http://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1052174256770027521

Hurrache

lawred2 wrote: »

Who is the idea of postponing the Irish border gaining traction with?

Bulgaria?

There's a feeling that such an idea doesn't exist, or at least not at the level at which anyone that matters operates.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

That seems to have come out of nowhere. A German delegate member, according to this afternoons News at 1, today said that if there's no agreement on the backtop on the border in Ireland, there is no deal. So when someone from Germany says that, I would be sure that's the general thinking.

I couldn't be surprised if the contrary is being put out there by British diplomats, a bit of dark arts.

Baseless and nonsensical. Ireland would just veto the deal.

So the EU going against Ireland would sink the deal anyway.

Leroy42

lawred2 wrote: »

Baseless and nonsensical. Ireland would just veto the deal.

So the EU going against Ireland would sink the deal anyway.

Only if Ireland vetoed it. I think that is the point that Howlin is raising. He is putting it to Leo that he needs to be prepared to stand up for Ireland in what is probably going to be significant pressure over the coming weeks.

But it is all entirely predictable. This is the strategy that the UK have had from the very outset when it was very clear that they had no real power and little options. So the plan seems to have been to drag everything out as long as possible, use the EU's willingness to keep things moving, as a way of bringing pressure to bear on the EU as the final date came closer.

Just as A50 put a gun to the head of the UK, they want to try to use that as a pressure point to the EU.

EdgeCase

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if this is part of the UK’s strategy. They’re very quick to resort to PR, spin and spreading misinformation. I’m not saying that as some kind of conspiracy theory. They genuinely do use tactics like that to try and weaken the solidarity they’re facing.

All you have to do is keep sowing semi credible information and hoping it gets parroted and picked up, which it inevitably does.

LuckyLloyd

As I said on Sunday, it appears things are moving much faster than they are. Nothing of any consequence has changed since the weekend. There is lots of noise, but the principles on either side are not currently talking to each other.

Zubeneschamali

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Barnier speaks out

We are going to take the time... to find this comprehensive deal... in the weeks to come.

So, nothing ready for October, cancel the November summit, meet maybe in December?

Sam Russell

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We are going to take the time... to find this comprehensive deal... in the weeks to come.

So, nothing ready for October, cancel the November summit, meet maybe in December?

The EU have cancelled the publication of the outline of the future trade agreement paper.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/HMcEntee/status/1052182398950092801

In fairness Coveney was forceful this morning that the British govt made commitments in writing in December that have to be honored.

The Irish ambassador to UK also said this and that UK govt was trying to renege on it's commitments.

Mc Love

So if there's no WA and no time limit to the backstop, does that mean the UK leaves and a hard border has to be put in place?

charlie14

Mc Love wrote: »

So if there's no WA and no time limit to the backstop, does that mean the UK leaves and a hard border has to be put in place?

No deal and I cannot see the possibility of anything but. The EU would insist on one for the protection of the SM and the CU I imagine.

Leroy42

Yes, a crash out deal. The EU is trying to use its leverage to avoid a hard border in NI. They could have simply jettisoned that position and left Ireland to hang, to secure a deal, but have opted to stand behind international agreements (GFA) and a member state.

If it ends up with No Deal, then the fault lies completely with the UK. TM has stated repeatedly, that she will not deliver a hard border in NI. The EU has stated that they are willing to allow the UK to leave (which means borders) yet maintain their stance of no NI border in order to preserve the GFA and the progress made in the last 20 years.

The UK have decided that the promise to avoid a border is not really a promise, but more a hope and they aren't really that bothered wither way.

Asmooh

I hope they make a wall between northern ireland and the republic.
then revoke all rights for Irish people including right to speak irish.

Nothing wrong with being Irish but be Irish in the republic, mainly because most people are bitching about the british.. yet they wouldn't mind using UK benefits.

charlie14

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/HMcEntee/status/1052182398950092801

In fairness Coveney was forceful this morning that the British govt made commitments in writing in December that have to be honored.

The Irish ambassador to UK also said this and that UK govt was trying to renege on it's commitments.

Found that statement from O`Neill a bit strange. Made me wonder if it had anything to do with him perhaps hearing some muttering in diplomatic circles similar to what Howlin was claiming.

Mc Love

Asmooh wrote: »

I hope they make a wall between northern ireland and the republic.
then revoke all rights for Irish people including right to speak irish.

Nothing wrong with being Irish but be Irish in the republic, mainly because most people are bitching about the british.. yet they wouldn't mind using UK benefits.

And the fact that NI can apply for an Irish passport

Imreoir2

I love how Brexiteers like to keep saying "nothing is agreed untill everything is agreed". Some of them even like to point out that it was the EU that specified this.

They seem to think this means that they are free to break any commitments they have made during the negiotiations, this is not true of course. The meaning of "nothing is agreed untill everything is agreed" is that the UK gets nothing untill they agree to everything.

Sam Russell

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I love how Brexiteers like to keep saying "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed". Some of them even like to point out that it was the EU that specified this.

They seem to think this means that they are free to break any commitments they have made during the negotiations, this is not true of course. The meaning of "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" is that the UK gets nothing untill they agree to everything.

I think Barnier pointed a long time ago, that once a topic has been agreed, it will not be revisited. Once the text goes green, that that is it. After that, if there is a problem, it is as agreed or nothing.