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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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ArmaniJeanss

hill16bhoy wrote: »

British politics would benefit if both the Tories and Labour split.

If you had five "major" parties rather than three (it's really two at the moment, in truth, as the Lib Dems are always trailing the other two considerably), majority government in the UK would become a thing of the past, and first past the post would be shown up as the disastrous system it is.

Cart and horse, as long as you have FPTP you will have 2 max 3 parties.

Speech to HoC at 3.30pm by PMTM - probably just more 'nothing has changed, let me be clear' stuff rather than a resignation. The latter is usually on the steps outside 10DS.

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's quite possible that Ireland will come under severe pressure to change the backstop. Apart from the implicit and explicit nasty threats to our economy emanating from Tory politicians as they try to ditch the backstop, it also is in the EU's economic interest to ensure that there isn't a hard Brexit. If the only impediment to the deal going through is the backstop, then I expect much communication between Dublin, London and Brussels as to how this might be fudged.

Doesn't look like the EU agree
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1072100394250199041

seamus

lawred2 wrote: »

just called off? and then what?

Does anyone know the answer at this stage?

If the reason it's being cancelled is because it's clear that May is going to lose the vote badly, then we could see the opposition call a no-confidence vote anyway.

Is Leo talking to the EU about making concessions on the backstop? I don't know.

I've always said that this is a seminal issue for the EU. What happens to Ireland in Brexit is important for the entire EU, because it illustrates what the EU will do when the sh1t hits the fan. Will it fight for the union? Or will small states be sacrificed in the economic interests of the big ones?
If it's the latter, then Brexit is just the beginning and insular, anti-EU sentiment will build across Europe.

Markets definitely aren't liking it. They're not expecting this to go well for the UK. Which suggests that they're expecting that no WA means no deal.

No deal is about the only way May can hold onto power at this stage. Her party want a renegotiation which is not possible. The DUP won't accept anything except a hard border.

She can't stay in the PM seat unless they just go for no deal.

10000maniacs

3 cabinet ministers have confirmed that Tuesdays vote is definitely off.
Ireland is going to come under pressure on the backstop.

cml387

This is bad for May.
She can hardly turn around and go back to EU for concessions, after banging on for weeks about how the WA is the best there is.
Then pulling the vote after sending her ministers out to expressly deny it.

Unless the EU has said something over the weekend that she can point to.

Hurrache

10000maniacs wrote: »

3 cabinet ministers have confirmed that Tuesdays vote is definitely off.
Ireland is going to come under pressure on the backstop.

Many don't seem to realise that the backstop only applies in perpetuity if they don't sort out a future agreement.

joeysoap

10000maniacs wrote: »

3 cabinet ministers have confirmed that Tuesdays vote is definitely off.
Ireland is going to come under pressure on the backstop.

Leo softens on the back stop = SF gain in popularity next election. He’d want to dress it up in a Santa outfit to have any chance of it not being exposed as a cave in.

Water John

If TM delays vote until the New Year, what she wants to push is my Deal or Crash out.
Time for Parliament to take control from her hands, in that case.

10000maniacs

cml387 wrote: »

This is bad for May.
She can hardly turn around and go back to EU for concessions, after banging on for weeks about how the WA is the best there is.
Then pulling the vote after sending her ministers out to expressly deny it.

Unless the EU has said something over the weekend that she can point to.

Sky News did a calculation that May would have lost by over 200 votes on Tuesday so it is not surprising that it's called off.
However, Europe still won't budge on the backstop regardless of how much the UK sulks and postures as it would split the EU down the middle. A lot of countries are on Irelands side.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

Doesn't look like the EU agree
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1072100394250199041

Looks pretty firm. Pity, a fudge that suits all would be in everyone's interest right now.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1072102994106306560

Labour think they can force the vote. This just gets worse and worse

Water John

That is what I was hoping, HoC forces the vote by not taking it off the table. Now should be decision time.

Professor Moriarty

Sterling tanking.

Thargor

FT reporting the vote is dead, calling it humiliation. Nothing on BBC strangely.

10000maniacs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sterling tanking.

Down to £1.26 against the dollar and sliding fast. Team UK in trouble.

Infini

10000maniacs wrote: »

3 cabinet ministers have confirmed that Tuesdays vote is definitely off.
Ireland is going to come under pressure on the backstop.

No we wont. The backstop is the EU position as well the only pressure there will be is on the British to cop the hell on. The backstop isn't just because of the border its the fact that its the only workable solution and keeps imports/export checks confined to a limited number of ports/airports. There's over 150+ land border crossings and no infrastructure it's simply not workable without serious costs both politically, locally and financially. That's why the backstop was key from the outset because it both respects NI's remain vote not the DUP's ideological BS and because it takes account of the unique circumstances of NI.

Britain is the one which will come under serious pressure. Negotiations are over its 3 choices no more no less:

1) Accept WA.
2) Abandon Brexit and this whole excersise in failure and fúck ups.
3) Crash out with no deal and watch your country disintegrate.

The one's who are under pressure are the British to decide what they want and make a decision, no more messing around this is the result of THEIR choices and THEIR arrogance and failures.

Edit: Pound has just broken the 90p mark again and sliding still. So it begins.

Tabnabs

They are leading with it, in fairness.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46509288

Theresa May is to make a statement to MPs at 15:30 GMT amid reports Tuesday's vote on her Brexit deal is being delayed.

That will be followed by a statement from Commons leader Andrea Leadsom - and then a statement from the Brexit secretary on Article 50.

10000maniacs

Infini wrote: »

No we wont. The backstop is the EU position as well the only pressure there will be is on the British to cop the hell on. The backstop isn't just because of the border its the fact that its the only workable solution and keeps imports/export checks confined to a limited number of ports/airports. There's over 150+ land border crossings and no infrastructure it's simply not workable without serious costs both politically, locally and financially. That's why the backstop was key from the outset because it both respects NI's remain vote not the DUP's ideological BS and because it takes account of the unique circumstances of NI.

Britain is the one which will come under serious pressure. Negotiations are over its 3 choices no more no less:

1) Accept WA.
2) Abandon Brexit and this whole excersise in failure and fúck ups.
3) Crash out with no deal and watch your country disintegrate.

The one's who are under pressure are the British to decide what they want and make a decision, no more messing around this is the result of THEIR choices and THEIR arrogance and failures.

Yes they will come under pressure, but there is enough EU members on Irelands side for them to stand firm.

Professor Moriarty

10000maniacs wrote: »

Down to £1.26 against the dollar and sliding fast. Team UK in trouble.

Lowest for 18 months plus manufacturing output shrinking. Time for firm and decisive government. If only.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

10000maniacs wrote: »

Yes they will come under pressure, but there is enough EU members on Irelands side for them to stand firm.

They wont come under pressure from the EU.

tuxy

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

They wont come under pressure from the EU.

But every country in the EU is ruled from Brussels we have no say

serfboard

cml387 wrote: »

I'd say this was the result of conversations with Dublin and Brussels yesterday.

That'd be my guess as well.

TM: Leo, any chance you could do us a solid on the old backstop?
Leo: Sorry Tess, no can do.
TM: Bugger! Better cancel that vote.

McGiver

cml387 wrote: »

This is bad for May.
She can hardly turn around and go back to EU for concessions, after banging on for weeks about how the WA is the best there is.
Then pulling the vote after sending her ministers out to expressly deny it.

Unless the EU has said something over the weekend that she can point to.

Looks like a check mate for May finally. There is no way out of this. She can't cancel Brexit, she can't pass the agreed WA and she can't go ahead with No Deal Brexit.

10000maniacs

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

They wont come under pressure from the EU.

If I was the Spanish, Netherlands or Belgian PM's, I would at least be putting a discussion on the table.

Infini

McGiver wrote: »

Looks like a check mate for May finally. There is no way out of this. She can't cancel Brexit, she can't pass the agreed WA and she can't go ahead with No Deal Brexit.

She CAN cancel Brexit but she would HAVE to go back to the people with another vote. It's the only way forward for her at this point as parliament wont back the WA and the consequences of a No Deal will ultimately break the UK it's simply a nogo. Simple truth is unless they agree to the WA then Brexit simply wont be able to happen without catastrophic costs to them. It hurts us but unlike them we have at least been preparing for a No Deal they haven't you only have to look at Fasal's twitter a few weeks back and how he was suprised how our side were preparing so much for this while nothing of equivelence exists in the UK.

serfboard

McGiver wrote: »

Looks like a check mate for May finally. There is no way out of this. She can't cancel Brexit, she can't pass the agreed WA and she can't go ahead with No Deal Brexit.

Yep - as I said before, Parliament is stuck. No majorities for Deal, No Deal, Remain.

Despite what the ERG and Labour say, there is no "better deal" available.

The only solutions are a General Election (unlikely IMO) or a Second Referendum.

That's it.

P_1

UK politics really is turning into the final part of the BBC House of Cards series isn't it?

All we're missing is a high profile Tory to cross the house at this stage

Water John

Some posters here have very wobbly knees. This is holding though time. If UK had trust from the EU and countries within it, TM might get a bit more help, but that isn't there owing to their past behaviour.
Did any country listen to the UK Govn't when they started spinning against us? Did ant country listen when UK tried to go over Barnier's head. The answer to both is, no.

Professor Moriarty

Infini wrote: »

She CAN cancel Brexit but she would HAVE to go back to the people with another vote. It's the only way forward for her at this point as parliament wont back the WA and the consequences of a No Deal will ultimately break the UK it's simply a nogo. Simple truth is unless they agree to the WA then Brexit simply wont be able to happen without catastrophic costs to them. It hurts us but unlike them we have at least been preparing for a No Deal they haven't you only have to look at Fasal's twitter a few weeks back and how he was suprised how our side were preparing so much for this while nothing of equivelence exists in the UK.

Apparently (and this could be spin), Ireland has been making al lot of preparations on private for a hard Brexit. The reason the preparations aren't public is because the government don't want to give ammunition to British politicians - Brexiteers in particular.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

10000maniacs wrote: »

If I was the Spanish, Netherlands or Belgian PM's, I would at least be putting a discussion on the table.

They all signed off on the agreement already a week or so ago knowing it most likely wouldn't pass in the UK.

EU member states signed off on agreement. EU say this is the agreement and no renegotiations.

This is only an issue now for the UK Government.