Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Defaulter1831

Captain Snow wrote: »

A slider low can be very tasty;)

gabeeg

Captain Snow wrote: »

That's more like it

sryanbruen

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

A slider low can be very tasty;)

Yeah, once you're not affected by an onshore breeze :rolleyes:

kod87

Nothing particularly interesting in the models just yet, looks like a change to cool NW winds that could bring some wintry showers and schhhleeeet to high ground, but at least better than the nonsense non-weather we have had recently.

Defaulter1831

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yeah, once you're not affected by an onshore breeze :rolleyes:

I generally escape onshore breezes by 50-60 miles:D

Captain Snow

More runs like this and we are in business...:D

Monkeynut

Cork Boy 53

Whatever about any snow or wintry weather it looks like we can say goodbye to the high pressure from the weekend onwards and dig out the raingear again. At least there might be some sunny spells between the rain showers.

United road

So Kermit is banned!!
I think that is a disaster, will be greatly missed round here!

And MT posts in greater detail on the other side, wow!
Are they paying him more then we do?

Defaulter1831

We could be expecting a lot of this over the next few weeks..

You can see the temps of 3-5C in the background..very conducisve to.. 'Schleeet',

You could even have schleet on some Sahurday.

Cork Boy 53

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

We could be expecting a lot of this over the next few weeks..

You can see the temps of 3-5C in the background..very conducisve to.. 'Schleeet',

You could even have schleet on some Sahurday.

On high ground only.

Snowbiee21

United road wrote: »

So Kermit is banned!!
I think that is a disaster, will be greatly missed round here!

And MT posts in greater detail on the other side, wow!
Are they paying him more then we do?

A joke is right , put so much thought and effort in to his forecasts , a real shame

sryanbruen

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

I generally escape onshore breezes by 50-60 miles:D

Lucky you :P

I didn't have that luck in December 2017

Defaulter1831

If John Eagleton is 'The Eagle' and

Ger Fleming 'The Winking Weatherman from Wexford'

Gerry should be Gerry 'Schleet' Murphy:) Anyone think of any nice monikers for our other weather presenters?!

Siobhan Ryan could be Siobhan 'readily in the double digits' Ryan

Defaulter1831

sryanbruen wrote: »

Lucky you :P

I didn't have that luck in December 2017

Oh yes that Sunday morning 10th Decemberish fall.. I'm confident we'll all see something decent by the first week of February. And hill snow, some low lying snow in the transition from 20th Jan.

gabeeg

GFS p

Defaulter1831

gabeeg wrote: »

GFS p

The -8 to -12 isotherm looks like a mad bat attacking us from the east

YanSno

Nothing really epic about this run 18z gfs. if like cold rain, sleet unless you live on very high ground you might see snow . It's a very long sea track and air modification

Mortelaro

YanSno wrote: »

Nothing really epic about this run. if like cold rain, sleet unless you live on very high ground you might see snow . It's a very long sea track and air modification

Correct
You'd need -10 850's and colder from a northwesterly for snow
Too much maritime Atlantic influence
No snow on those charts below 200 metres or on the coast just WET cold rain

gabeeg

Wet rain is the worst kind of rain

Monkeynut

gabeeg wrote: »

Wet rain is the worst kind of rain

It's definitely a lot worse than the damp rain.

Defaulter1831

Not to worry lads (and ladies but i think there's only Kittyn) it's only one run..and the GFS Pub run at that:)

The main thing, at the moment, is the stubborn high pressue is breaking down. 16 days from today is 26th Jan. So we still have that last week of Jan and February for the better stuff.

YanSno

My winter predictions back in 2009 and i think the rest this winter might turn out to be like this with a weak to neutral EL Nino / El Nina. Unless factors drastically change

yansnow wrote: »

The weather so far this autumn has been incredibly benign with mainly above day time maxima and few cold nights. Allowing for the seasonal changes in the Northern Hemisphere a weak El Nino and continued low solar activity. There is hopefully good potential for something interesting. Winter conditions have already been established in Poland, Alps and Czech Republic with some near record snowfalls and last weekend in Calgary.

It will be interesting to see what happens in November - Will it be a standard westerly zonal set up with occasional outbreaks of cold air or will there be a return of the dreaded Bartlett high pressure conditions. Every year I start to feel optimistic about cold conditions developing but despite not believing in global warming cannot ignore the increases in temperature in recent years. (This is I believe part of a natural warming and cooling cycle - cold between 1940's and 1970's and warmer since this period) As a result tend to expect a severe winter at far too often.

Last Winter was not that exciting with no impressive minima recorded and small amounts of snow, it just was not mild very often. This year once again has seen month on month warmer than average (70 -00 ) and shows no real sign of changing at the moment. What is likely is more variability on a day to day basis - it could be very cold and very mild in the same week - just opinion. At some point we must play catch up with rainfall - it is reasonable to expect in November/December an extended period of wet and windy weather with mild and cold airmasses competing as per normal.

Defaulter1831

I've a question some of the older posters might be able to help me with.

In the early/mid 1990s a fella from an Irish Weather company used be on Carlow/Kildare Radio (CKR) and South East Radio every Friday evening after 5pm. He'd give the weather forecast for the week ahead and sometimes a bit further. His surname was something like Hughes.. He very rarely gave a bland forecast, something epic was always on the cards but very rarely transpired.

Here's a few examples from 1993. In mid February 1993 he spoke of exceptionally cold air over Canada which was going to make it's way on a westerly wind to Ireland in about a week and bring snow and severe cold. It never happened though i'm aware of Canadian long fetch snow events.

The last weekend in February, about 26th, he forecast an easterly from Sunday 28th March and that temps would drop to -10C by night and hover around freezing by day with snow showers. It dropped to -3C and the first few days of March had temps 4-7C with hail and sleet.

The last Friday of August he predicted temps in the mid 20s C for the first few days of September. He was kinda right. The 1st September was 24C in Kilkenny.

Anyone remember him and his name??

gabeeg

YanSno wrote: »

My winter predictions back in 2009 and i think the rest this winter might turn out to be like this with a weak to neutral EL Nino / El Nina. Unless factors drastically change

How've you only got 116 posts?

YanSno

I stopped posting for a few years on boards was busy with studies when i came back didn't have have a clue of my password or email i used back in 2007 so had to make a new account

gabeeg wrote: »

How've you only got 116 posts?

pad199207

1am and the birds are singing like there’s no tomorrow. Usually only in the summer ya hear them at night.

Graces7

pad199207 wrote: »

1am and the birds are singing like there’s no tomorrow. Usually only in the summer ya hear them at night.

Loud and sweet here too. One of my new rescue cats keeps bringing me gifts of live unharmed wrens so I think they are thanking me for their prompt release. he is black and white so they must be blind

LoxontheRox

There was a beautiful chorus here last evening too...it was so weird to hear it at this time of year! Very welcome though....
Super mild in North Clare for weeks now!

Graces7

There are so many kinds of beauty in weather. I was outside just now and the sheer magnificence and range oif sky and cloudscape. Clouds draped like snow over the mountains, blue black clouds massing to the north . Earlier a cloud-fragmented white-gold dawn.

Quiet intense loveliness; no need for dramatics.