Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Donegal Storm

Yet another miserable day in Donegal with frequent heavy showers and lights on all day, really hate this time of year when we get weather like this, just depressing being stuck indoors and not seeing the sun for weeks at a time

Clonmel1000

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Yet another miserable day in Donegal with frequent heavy showers and lights on all day, really hate this time of year when we get weather like this, just depressing being stuck indoors and not seeing the sun for weeks at a time

Careful now.

Kutebride

Hats, scarves and amazing views from Newgrange Monument at 1pm today. ❄️☀️

Sycamore Tree

Beautiful night of stars. Orion looking dominant.

Kermit.de.frog

Chilly southeasterly breeze in place by Thursday - could see some wintriness in the rain and snow on high ground particularly in the likes of Wicklow.

Graces7

shhhhhhhhh! It is so blessedly quiet....amazing. chilly but no wind. Hoping go to over today...but blissfully quiet..west mayo offshore

BLIZZARD7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Chilly southeasterly breeze in place by Thursday - could see some wintriness in the rain and snow on high ground particularly in the likes of Wicklow.

Indeed, it would be brief but some in the North east of the country/high ground wicklow could see some flurries on Thursday night based on this morning's ECM.

BLIZZARD7

The atlantic is back in control with warmer air by the weekend however...

KingJeremy

This date last year we had some fabulous snow fall in east county Galway (I’d upload an accompanying photo, but I don’t know how to!) No luck so far for December 2018 😞

Graces7

Back to wild, wet, windy out here.. dark and darkening and horizontal sodden darkness. West mayo offshore

bertie4evr

KingJeremy wrote: »

This date last year we had some fabulous snow fall in east county Galway (I’d upload an accompanying photo, but I don’t know how to!) No luck so far for December 2018 😞

10th of December 2017 in Kilkenny!

JCX BXC

Sunny, calm and 12.7c in West Clare.

If the sun wasn't so desperately weak one would think it was more like March/April.

SleetAndSnow

was drizlling all day in Cork city, now cloudy and pretty cold.

Clonmel1000

JCX BXC wrote: »

Sunny, calm and 12.7c in West Clare.

If the sun wasn't so desperately weak one would think it was more like March/April.

Sounds blissful enjoy.

Harry Palmr

The Atlantic looks like being relentless for the run up to Christmas. Anyone know the odds for a white one?

MidMan25

All the threads are dead, probably something to do with the outlook. Model fatigue is kicking in!

sryanbruen

MidMan25 wrote: »

All the threads are dead, probably something to do with the outlook. Model fatigue is kicking in!

Ridiculous amount of changes in model output as soon as day 3 or day 4 that it's really no use discussing them. Gotta love Scandi Highs! The only thing that is consistent on them is the stratosphere which has been constantly monitored in the stratosphere watch thread.

Cork Boy 53

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The Atlantic looks like being relentless for the run up to Christmas. Anyone know the odds for a white one?

PP at present have odds of 5/1 for a White Christmas at Dublin Airport.

squarecircles

saturday could be interesting

KingdomRushed

Hmmm we are now approaching mid December and there’s still no end in sight to stormy conditions and rain on the weather models.

Notwithstanding that there’s an optimism amongst many weather watchers that borders on something akin to certainty that this winter is going to be extra special and cold.

My take is that the weather will do what it wants as usual, and not to get caught up in the hype. The tail end of the ECM output is now the solstice and it is still showing Atlantic depressions. For a cold spell in late December/early January you would expect the models to be hinting more and more of such a thing, but the cold facts are that they are not.

So far we have had little significant frost, but a lot of cool and wet weather. I personally doubt there’s a memorable cold spell coming anywhere in the first half of winter at this point.

Artane2002

Light fog in Dublin 5.

lapua20grain

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

PP at present have odds of 5/1 for a White Christmas at Dublin Airport.

Just checked the site they are giving odds of 4/1 for a White Christmas at Dublin Airport and 7/1 for Cork

munsterlegend

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Hmmm we are now approaching mid December and there’s still no end in sight to stormy conditions and rain on the weather models.

Notwithstanding that there’s an optimism amongst many weather watchers that borders on something akin to certainty that this winter is going to be extra special and cold.

My take is that the weather will do what it wants as usual, and not to get caught up in the hype. The tail end of the ECM output is now the solstice and it is still showing Atlantic depressions. For a cold spell in late December/early January you would expect the models to be hinting more and more of such a thing, but the cold facts are that they are not.

So far we have had little significant frost, but a lot of cool and wet weather. I personally doubt there’s a memorable cold spell coming anywhere in the first half of winter at this point.

The models are changing every run for our little part of the world. Looking at MT’s forecast the only certainty is uncertainty. It will eventually get colder but as to the depth and duration is as always a lottery.

It could just as easily be wintry at Christmas so don’t lose faith yet!

gozunda

Seriously windy and gusty most of last night. Still very blustery this morning.
North Cork Limerick Border

Cork Boy 53

munsterlegend wrote: »

The models are changing every run for our little part of the world. Looking at MT’s forecast the only certainty is uncertainty. It will eventually get colder but as to the depth and duration is as always a lottery.

It could just as easily be wintry at Christmas so don’t lose faith yet!

I have a feeling it will be a mild, wet and windy Christmas but of course you may be right. Let`s wait and see.

sryanbruen

The December updates of the ECM and Glosea5 continue to show a cold to even very cold second half to Winter 2018-19 with a lot of blocking though the blocking is more over Scandinavia on the ECM compared to Greenland on the Glosea5.





The ECM one reminds me a lot of how Winter 1946-47 looks reanalysed.

Ms2011

Hard to believe this time last year my kids were sleighing down the hill in our back garden in a foot of snow. Fast forward to this year & some of my plants are still in bloom it's been so mild!!!

Graces7

Ms2011 wrote: »

Hard to believe this time last year my kids were sleighing down the hill in our back garden in a foot of snow. Fast forward to this year & some of my plants are still in bloom it's been so mild!!!

Last week I was eating raw broad beans and peas, self sown and some are still flowering... marigolds etc

Gonzo

munsterlegend wrote: »

The models are changing every run for our little part of the world. Looking at MT’s forecast the only certainty is uncertainty. It will eventually get colder but as to the depth and duration is as always a lottery.

It could just as easily be wintry at Christmas so don’t lose faith yet!

I don't see us getting much snow between now and Christmas day, even tho the charts are changing alot, the one theme that is consistent is that it's remaining very unsettled. We may get more wintry style cold Atlantic bands of precipitation and showers as December goes on but I think any proper easterly based cold and potential snowy conditions will be into January and February.

I'm very happy with that once it doesn't start during March when it's almost too late.

Oscar Bravo

A Wet and very dark afternoon in Castlebar. would love a cold clear end to the day sometime soon.