Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Gonzo

without any snow I just find cold conditions like today to be a pain. Nothing worse than cold rain and hail showers while still feeling properly cold and having to maintain the high heating costs. This is why I want it mild for the rest of February at this stage.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

without any snow I just find cold conditions like today to be a pain. Nothing worse than cold rain and hail showers while still feeling properly cold and having to maintain the high heating costs. This is why I want it mild for the rest of February at this stage.

Blue skies here in Dublin 13.

February 2019 now nearly 10 hours sunnier than December 2018.

https://twitter.com/SnowbieWx/status/1094579004659695618

Cork Boy 53

Gonzo wrote: »

without any snow I just find cold conditions like today to be a pain. Nothing worse than cold rain and hail showers while still feeling properly cold and having to maintain the high heating costs. This is why I want it mild for the rest of February at this stage.

Yes but we will probably have cold weather, though not necessarily snow, in March and possibly April to make up for this generally mild winter.

Graces7

Forgotten what "mild" is like. Sheer exuberant energy out here. Changes from clouded dimness to dazzling sun and back again, like one of those time lapse films. Gusty gutsy winds.. sudden hail attacks.. west mayo offshore

Donegal Storm

Brutal day in Letterkenny again, the past week has been by far the worst week all winter here. Pouring down heavy sleety rain and hail all day, miserable..

Meteorite58

Big hail showers here in Kerry this morning, more turned to rain now, blustery .

Kermit.de.frog

It's on!!!!!!!!!!!!






EDIT: Oh sorry, this is 2019

*gets back in time machine*

refusetolose

https://twitter.com/metjeffuk/status/1094023631414480897
https://twitter.com/metjeffuk/status/1094623635740991488

km79

BALTIC out
Have a bit of painting to do
This time last week it looked like dry and mild weather for this weekend
I hope next weeks forecast doesn’t change

rooney30

Any more signs of a cold blast for the end of the month , any straws to be grasped at ? . The F1 thread is fairly quiet at the moment , never a good sign

Lucreto

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's on!!!!!!!!!!!!






EDIT: Oh sorry, this is 2019

*gets back in time machine*

I had to check the date before I watched that Gif. Glad I did. It would have dashed my hopes after getting giddy.

Pity we are in for more mild rubbish. We will probably get a northerly going in May, June and July as this stage.

Artane2002

Vile at the moment, wet and windy. It was a nice day other than this though.

nacho libre

rooney30 wrote: »

Any more signs of a cold blast for the end of the month , any straws to be grasped at ? . The F1 thread is fairly quiet at the moment , never a good sign

The CFS are still showing a beast from the east, but they have pushed it back a bit- the story of the winter so far!

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

The CFS are still showing a beast from the east, but they have pushed it back a bit- the story of the winter so far!

The CFS is now milder than average for February.

The -NAO that seasonal models predicted never took off - possibly down to the North Atlantic SSTs.

Very strange Winter is all I'll say.

I'll be evaluating the Winter forecast at the end of the month. What I'll say is that whilst underestimating the mild nature of it, December was picked up reasonably well. January's forecast was perfect for the UK although it lost some points on the temperature for Ireland. February forecast is a bust - just like it was last year.

https://twitter.com/wxjay/status/1094587745983447041

Marengo

Very raw feel here in Portlaoise when the gusty squall hit. Temp around 5C.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

The CFS is now milder than average for February.

The -NAO that seasonal models predicted never took off - possibly down to the North Atlantic SSTs.

Very strange Winter is all I'll say.

I'll be evaluating the Winter forecast at the end of the month. What I'll say is that whilst underestimating the mild nature of it, December was picked up reasonably well. January's forecast was perfect for the UK although it lost some points on the temperature for Ireland. February forecast is a bust - just like it was last year.

https://twitter.com/wxjay/status/1094587745983447041

Yes the CFS is milder than average for February, but still showing it getting colder from the east late February into March.

As regards your forecast, i would not be too harsh on yourself, you are a relative novice at this and your forceast was fairly on the money overall. In contrast well respected organisations, with vast resources, didn't do so well this winter.

Mortelaro

It's not just,the strat and teleconnection expectations that were off but some winter forecast outlooks must be scoring 5 or under out of 10 by now also?

Mother nature conforms for noone,that's the lesson

sryanbruen

Mortelaro wrote: »

It's not just,the strat and teleconnection expectations that were off but some winter forecast outlooks must be scoring 5 or under out of 10 by now also?

Mother nature conforms for noone,that's the lesson

Besides my forecast for the first two months of the season, the only forecast I have seen that was somewhat accurate was the Spanish Met. I saw their forecast mentioned on Netweather earlier in the season.

nacho libre

Mortelaro wrote: »

It's not just,the strat and teleconnection expectations that were off but some winter forecast outlooks must be scoring 5 or under out of 10 by now also?

Mother nature conforms for noone

A lot of these forecasts were working off the assumption of a favourable SSW response in the troposphere. M.T. Cranium has his own methods, but his long range forecast was not great either. Gaoth Laidir was right when he cited the lack of sufficent downwelling to the lower levels of the stratosphere, but mogrep must have envisaged this happening given the UKMO long range update from late December onwards. No one seems to be able to give an explanation as to why the downwelling was so tepid. Was it due to the QBO going westerly?

Meteorite58

Frog spawn in my pond here in Kerry seems quite early this year, been there for a couple of days now.

SleetAndSnow

Wow that is very cool! Here I am having never seen a frog in my 18 years (maybe I did but forget).

Mortelaro

nacho libre wrote: »

A lot of these forecasts were working off the assumption of a favourable SSW response in the troposphere. M.T. Cranium has his own methods, but his long range forecast was not great either. Gaoth Laidir was right when he cited the lack of sufficent downwelling to the lower levels of the stratosphere, but mogrep must have envisaged this happening given the UKMO long range update from late December onwards. No one seems to be able to give an explanation as to why the downwelling was so tepid. Was it due to the QBO going westerly?

Anyone saying during the winter that downwelling wouldn't happen can't be showered with praise either though
It either was going to happen or it was not
A lot of so called experts on teleconections with fancy graphs were caught out as spoofers this winter
Back to the drawing board
Beware more spoofing on the reasons why X Y or Z happened
Flukes and graphs are common bedfellows
That's my opinion, as of now

Meteorite58

Nic Sat Pic of the Lp off the NW today

Mortelaro

Gusting to 80kmh currently in Arklow
Temp up almost 2c in the last hour
Now 7.1c
Peak today was 8.1c

MidMan25

nacho libre wrote: »

A lot of these forecasts were working off the assumption of a favourable SSW response in the troposphere. M.T. Cranium has his own methods, but his long range forecast was not great either. Gaoth Laidir was right when he cited the lack of sufficent downwelling to the lower levels of the stratosphere, but mogrep must have envisaged this happening given the UKMO long range update from late December onwards. No one seems to be able to give an explanation as to why the downwelling was so tepid. Was it due to the QBO going westerly?

MT's seasonal forecasts are met with much fanfare on here but tbh his are as poor as everyone else's. I'm not convinced that LRFs will ever be accurate.

gozunda

christ absolutely horrible out there. Cold with flogging rain and howling wind atm.

hawkwing

MidMan25 wrote: »

MT's seasonal forecasts are met with much fanfare on here but tbh his are as poor as everyone else's. I'm not convinced that LRFs will ever be accurate.

There has been numerous mild and almost snowless winters in the last 20yrs and i don't remember anyone forecasting any of them in a LRF.

KingdomRushed

Considering the Beast from the East was beginning to show its hand in FI at around this time last year, I’m about ready to call an end to chart hunting this winter. Nothing on the horizon, only a few weeks left

Graces7

Blissfully calm and quiet. Just sheerly lovely. I can even go for a walk for the first time in days... Much appreciated. Long may it last. west mayo offshore

catrat12

There is no way winter is done yet