US Presidential Election 2020

pixelburp

rossie1977 wrote: »

Obama won there in 2008. Only other Dem to win state last 50+ years are Carter in 76 and LBJ in 64.

Ah, figured there had to be something, that number was too insane. The rest of the numbers look eminently surmountable, and I daresay Warren / Sanders will be licking their lips. Harris is probably the first high profile candidate to find herself lagging once the field narrows.

Though if Biden were to win the nomination, seems like the best play all round would be to pull someone more liberal in as VP; Sanders remains a controversial figure in the DNC, so I wonder would a Biden-Warren ticket work. If he picked a JohnDelaney'esque politician, he might as well kiss every progressive vote goodbye.

rossie1977

Biden seems to be only Dem candidate so far that appeals to black voter on large scale. With that in mind and fact he appeals more towards older white voters than Bernie or Warren and more towards conservative voters he should completely sweep south and plains in primary.

After that it's going to be tough to challenge him as rust belt should be close and Biden will pick up lots of delegates obviously in North East as well as Pacific coast.

markodaly

rossie1977 wrote: »

Couple of recent state polls:
Iowa, Biden by 9 from Warren. Biden leads 3rd place Harris by 17
California, Biden by 4 from Warren. Harris is in 4th place in her home-state
North Carolina, Biden by 21 from Sanders
Pennsylvania, Biden by 7 from Warren.
New Hampshire, Biden by 4 from Sanders
Texas, Biden by 9 from O'Rourke
Nevada, Biden by 6 from Sanders

Couple of General Election polls:
Survey USA has both Biden and Bernie beating Trump nationally by 8.

IBD/TIPP has Biden leading Trump by 13. Sanders leads by 5, Warren by 4.

Emerson has both Biden and Sanders leading Trump by 2 with Warren and Trump a tie.

Civitas/SurveyUSA has Biden leading Trump by 8 in North Carolina (Trump won there in 16)

DMN/Emerson has both Biden and Sanders leading Trump by 2 in Texas (Trump leads all the other Dem challengers)

Looks like it will be Biden or Bernie so.
A Hillary 2.0 or a Democratic Socialist, both of them in their late 70s

So much for Democratic diversity. :pac:

MadYaker

Long but good interview with Sanders here. He doesn't really go into much depth on how he'll pay for a lot his proposals including a massive expansion of medicare over a 4 year period but he comes across as a genuine intellegent guy.

Brian?

MadYaker wrote: »

Long but good interview with Sanders here. He doesn't really go into much depth on how he'll pay for a lot his proposals including a massive expansion of medicare over a 4 year period but he comes across as a genuine intellegent guy.

He explained how he was going to pay for them. Not a complete breakdown, but it seemed feasible to me.

MadYaker

It's a sad indictment of the US media that the most informative interviewing of presidential hopefulls is being done by a stand up comedian and MMA commentator on his youtube channel.

Manic Moran

The Michael Brown shooting is back in the headlines. A number of the Democrats have released statements or tweets this week about the shooting as it was five years ago. Fair enough, the topic of police/black interaction is a reasonable one. The catch, though, is that Harris and Warren used the term 'murdered.' Harris is particularly surprising, as a prosecutor, if the Dept of Justice investigation (let alone the State-level ones) is actively saying that the evidence supported the officer's position, and no evidence supported the proposition of an unlawful killing, she should know better.

It hasn't gone over universally well, particularly with the police officers' unions.

eire4

MadYaker wrote: »

It's a sad indictment of the US media that the most informative interviewing of presidential hopefulls is being done by a stand up comedian and MMA commentator on his youtube channel.

Very true the corporate media in the US is very much part of the problem and very much invested in making sure the US does not actually become a fully functioning democracy. They are benefiting to the tune of tens of millions from the fact that in the US it is legal for big corporations and wealthy people to spend unlimited money to bride politicians with part of that resulting in massive ad spending in the media to maintain the current US oligarchy and stop anything that might actually benefit most people in the US.

circadian

MadYaker wrote: »

It's a sad indictment of the US media that the most informative interviewing of presidential hopefulls is being done by a stand up comedian and MMA commentator on his youtube channel.

Yeah, the media had a cash cow when the Trump circus came to town. The likes of CNN/MSNBC etc have no interest in actually reporting on Warren or Sanders as the last time around polls showed Sanders destroying Trump. Just as much as Fox cheerleads Trump, the other side of the news pretty much wants him to win again since, despite Trumps claims, their viewership and ratings are through the roof off the back of the mayhem.

Rjd2

Manic Moran wrote: »

The Michael Brown shooting is back in the headlines. A number of the Democrats have released statements or tweets this week about the shooting as it was five years ago. Fair enough, the topic of police/black interaction is a reasonable one. The catch, though, is that Harris and Warren used the term 'murdered.' Harris is particularly surprising, as a prosecutor, if the Dept of Justice investigation (let alone the State-level ones) is actively saying that the evidence supported the officer's position, and no evidence supported the proposition of an unlawful killing, she should know better.

It hasn't gone over universally well, particularly with the police officers' unions.

Its absolutely dismal tbh from both however nobody on the left dares calls them out for fears of online lynch mobs. There is obviously an issue with policing when it comes to black people but Harris and Warren are been very misleading here. Eric Holder noted Nazi cleared the police ffs.

It highlights what is wrong with US media though, the right called them out but they will go bat for there side even when in the wrong more often than not....is there any journalists in America who can call both sides out when talking ****e?

Tapper and to a lesser extent Yashar Ali, but I suppose in an era where media matter and dailywire goons dominate online, the money is made by been a partisan hack.:(

eire4

circadian wrote: »

Yeah, the media had a cash cow when the Trump circus came to town. The likes of CNN/MSNBC etc have no interest in actually reporting on Warren or Sanders as the last time around polls showed Sanders destroying Trump. Just as much as Fox cheerleads Trump, the other side of the news pretty much wants him to win again since, despite Trumps claims, their viewership and ratings are through the roof off the back of the mayhem.

A good example of what your saying there was the other day I was watching CNN and they had a poll which showed in a general election Biden beating the president by about 10 points and Sanders beating the president by about 8 points. Yet after the graphic left the screen they never mentioned Sanders and only talked about how Biden was electable and had such a big lead. It was Biden Biden Biden in the whole segment.

marno21

Hickenlooper has called it a day

https://twitter.com/Hickenlooper/status/1162046556440268800

There's a race for Cory Gardner's seat in 2020 if he's up for it.

pixelburp

John Hinckenlooper has dropped out, announced in a video. He has also said he'll be considering running for senate in Colorado and the 2020 elections.

Quin_Dub

pixelburp wrote: »

John Hinckenlooper has dropped out, announced in a video. He has also said he'll be considering running for senate in Colorado and the 2020 elections.

He absolutely should , far more valuable to take the Senate seat.

O'Rourke should also pull the plug and run against Cornyn in Texas.

StringerBell

Beto has definitively rules out a Senate run, presidency or bust for him. From the horses mouth.

Still, that December cut off is a long way off yet

Dog Man Star

Igotadose wrote: »

Nothing's changed since Trump got elected, unfortunately[/url]

Among his base, sure, but his base has dwindled to 35%. He has won no "on the fence" voters. A recession has started.

His promises? Let's look at them:

1. Wall - not a single brick laid. Trump turned down $25,000,000,000 in 2017 and then, a year later, shut down the government for $1.5b. He got nothing.
2. Jobs, jobs, jobs - manufacturing jobs have dropped by 20%. He said China is paying billions to the US, but then delayed tariffs to after Christmas, proving he was lying. Farmers are crippled and are being given hand-outs.

The majority of US voters are not stupid. He will be roundly voted out in 2020, by some margin. He will be indicted immediately and will see out his last days in jail.

He is a woeful businessman and a woeful human being. His time is up.

When the dust settles in 2021, Trump will be remembered as a cautionary tale, when tv takes over truth. He will die in jail, but the lessons will be learnt and I believe the US will come back better and stronger than before.

After the weeks he has had, you would think Trump would take a higher ground, separating himself from White Nationalists, but such is his staff, he is attacking......wait for it.......Anti-fascist demonstrators.

Tone deaf.

He will lose the 2020 election by at least 12 points, a landslide.

Dog Man Star

There's absolutely ages to go, 14 months. I'd imagine Beto is still so very angry at what happened in his home town.

Doesn't really matter who runs for the Dems, Trump will be crushed. His base is about 35% now. His racism recently has guaranteed not a vote from the black nor latino community, absolutely destroyed that electorate with his "go home" rhetoric. Telling ethnic minorities to go back to where you came from is not your usual campaigning advice.

Clinton won by 3,000,000 votes. 2020 will be a landslide, no matter who is the Dem candidate.

And the sealed indictment will be waiting for Trump when he leaves the White House. That he will die in jail will be a fitting end to his life; just like Epstein, just like Manafort.

Dog Man Star

Predictions:

Dem nomination will be Elizabeth Warren, no question.
Trump will not take part in the usual debates.
Trump will run endless rallies instead.
Warren will win election by a huge margin.
Trump will claim a fix.
Trump will leave office in exchange for a pardon.

rossie1977

No chance Trump's loses by 12 unless we see another great depression or something.

Cody montana

I don’t see how trump can win.
Independents have abandoned him.

rossie1977

Cody montana wrote: »

I don’t see how trump can win.
Independents have abandoned him.

He will win if he and the media manage to make his opponent as unpopular as he is. It's not that difficult really, look at what they have managed to do to AOC in a few months.

Cody montana

rossie1977 wrote: »

He will win if he and the media manage to make his opponent as unpopular as he is. It's not that difficult really, look at what they have managed to do to AOC in a few months.

I think trump is so dreadful, everyone is better.

EltonJohn69

If Biden runs.. which is likely... I think Trump has a very good chance.....Biden is so error prone it’s ridiculous....

Cody montana

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

If Biden runs.. which is likely... I think Trump has a very good chance.....Biden is so error prone it’s ridiculous....

Elizabeth Warren would be the more suitable candidate.

everlast75

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

If Biden runs.. which is likely... I think Trump has a very good chance.....Biden is so error prone it’s ridiculous....

Even Fox has Biden beating Trump comfortably.

(To be clear, I don't want Biden on the ticket)

Water John

Trump would be error prone, otherwise called fake news. Biden makes verbal gaffes, a minor fault, which I for one find endearing.
Don't think at this stage that he should be the nominee.

rossie1977

Biden has an easier path to 270 than Warren would have. Warren's clearly better politican but that won't matter in November 2020.

Cody montana

everlast75 wrote: »

Even Fox has Biden beating Trump comfortably.

(To be clear, I don't want Biden on the ticket)

Agreed.
His opponents will use his dithering and bloopers against him.

rossie1977

Outside Warren and Sanders double act I don't see anyone really hurting Biden in debates and that includes Trump.

It's a smart strategy by big two progressives. They could potentially sweep all before them and continue to completely dominate all the talking points at debates then be the last two left

everlast75

rossie1977 wrote: »

Outside Warren and Sanders double act I don't see anyone really hurting Biden in debates and that includes Trump.

It's a smart strategy by big two progressives. They coukd potentially sweep all before them and continue to completely dominate all the talking points at debates then be the last two left

Warren as the main, maybe Harris as VP.

Warren should then name (pre-election) O'Rourke, Sanders and the remaining 6 or 7 top runners as her perspective cabinet Secretaries, gather up all that support who may be unhappy with their candidate not getting on the ticket