US Presidential Election 2020

is_that_so

spacecoyote wrote: »

Its a bit of a weird one though, as the rules for qualification for debate 4 are identical to debate 3.

So technically, a lot of the guys that just missed out on this one, have a chunk more time to get the same number of Qualifying polls/Donors (can't remember which candidate exactly, but one of them met the donor numbers, but only had 3 qualifying polls, where 4 are necessary)

So even though only 10 are in now, the number could jump back up for the next one (arguably without the platform of the 3rd debate it might be difficult to get donors or polling numbers up)

If they are already down at such low numbers they will have no impact. Some may push on but common sense should tell them to call it a day.

peddlelies

Biden is coming out with major gaffes on a daily basis.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-he-campaigns-for-president-joe-biden-tells-a-moving-but-false-war-story/2019/08/29/b5159676-c9aa-11e9-a1fe-ca46e8d573c0_story.html

Joe Biden painted a vivid scene for the 400 people packed into a college meeting hall. A four-star general had asked the then-vice president to travel to Kunar province in Afghanistan, a dangerous foray into “godforsaken country” to recognize the remarkable heroism of a Navy captain.

“He said, ‘Sir, I don’t want the damn thing!’ ” Biden said, his jaw clenched and his voice rising to a shout. “’Do not pin it on me, Sir! Please, Sir. Do not do that! He died. He died!’ ”

The room was silent.

“This is the God’s truth,” Biden had said as he told the story. “My word as a Biden...

Except almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect. Based on interviews with more than a dozen U.S. troops, their commanders and Biden campaign officials, it appears as though the former vice president has jumbled elements of at least three actual events into one story of bravery, compassion and regret that never happened."

eagle eye

Biden is too old, Sanders is too old and easy for Trump to attack policy wise. Sanders has no hope, only real shot of the four leading candidates is Warren and I don't like her chances.
Is it too late for someone else to throw their hat in the ring? Joe Kennedy is a bit young imo but he would beat Trump easily.

Hande hoche!

One of the "tinfoily" suggestions was that no one would be on track to win the primary and Michelle Obama would be selected.

Water John

The Dem primary could go all the ways to convention if 3 are close. But the candidate almost certainly would come from the 3.

Loafing Oaf

eagle eye wrote: »

Biden is too old, Sanders is too old.

In contrast to the young hotshot they're up against

Ash.J.Williams

The polls suggesting trump is gonna lose are wrong

Fr Tod Umptious

eagle eye wrote: »

Biden is too old, Sanders is too old and easy for Trump to attack policy wise. Sanders has no hope, only real shot of the four leading candidates is Warren and I don't like her chances.
Is it too late for someone else to throw their hat in the ring? Joe Kennedy is a bit young imo but he would beat Trump easily.

When this election is over I'm going to do a count on how many times that was said on this thread and about how many different people

Cody montana

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

The polls suggesting trump is gonna lose are wrong

Because?

eagle eye

Cody montana wrote:

Because?

As hateful as he has a he has some charisma about. He will get people to the polls to vote for him.
The Democratic party is fractured, it's like two or even three parties under one umbrella. If you are pro-socialist you will go out and vote for Bernie if he's the candidate but if you are a Biden fan it's likely.you won't bother voting.
There is a possibility that people do go out and vote due to their hate for Trump but it's also possible that many stay at home if it's not their candidate up for election due to strong disagreements over policy.

eagle eye

Fr Tod Umptious wrote:

When this election is over I'm going to do a count on how many times that was said on this thread and about how many different people

Well I named two and neither went for the nomination. Really I just named one who I thought might go for the nomination and that was Martin Heinrich.

eagle eye

Loafing Oaf wrote:

In contrast to the young hotshot they're up against

Biden looks and acts really old. Bernie sticks to his policy talk but once he gets pulled outside what he knows he looks old and out of touch.
Trump comes across like he knows what he is going on about.

Cody montana

eagle eye wrote: »

As hateful as he has a he has some charisma about. He will get people to the polls to vote for him.
The Democratic party is fractured, it's like two or even three parties under one umbrella. If you are pro-socialist you will go out and vote for Bernie if he's the candidate but if you are a Biden fan it's likely.you won't bother voting.
There is a possibility that people do go out and vote due to their hate for Trump but it's also possible that many stay at home if it's not their candidate up for election due to strong disagreements over policy.

And the republicans are what exactly?
Another gop member retiring today.
That makes 14 so far.

It’s August 2019.
Election is ages away.
When the Democrats are left with their candidate, then they become united at beating trump.
They’ve plenty of ammo to defeat him.
He’s accomplished very little.

Cody montana

eagle eye wrote: »

Biden looks and acts really old. Bernie sticks to his policy talk but once he gets pulled outside what he knows he looks old and out of touch.
Trump comes across like he knows what he is going on about.

And you were doing so well till the last point!

pixelburp

eagle eye wrote: »

Biden looks and acts really old. Bernie sticks to his policy talk but once he gets pulled outside what he knows he looks old and out of touch.
Trump comes across like he knows what he is going on about.

"Comes across" being the operative word, because Trump's confidence is easily batted back at him when you replay clips of him boasting about knowing more about ISIS than the generals, knowing more about the environment than anyone, nobody being less racist than him, raking forest floors etc. etc.

His braggadocio was enticing when he was the hurler in the ditch, with no political record, but he's had 3 years of lies, exaggerations and a less than spectacular list of achieved goals.

I wouldn't say this is a shoe-in for the Democrats; Biden is a disaster waiting to happen and Sanders ... well he could go either way. But Trump IMO has shown himself to be an empty vessel making the most noise.

Water John

'Trump comes across like he knows what he is going on about.' Quote.

This statement could well win, the best joke, at the Edinburgh Festival.

StringerBell

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

The polls suggesting trump is gonna lose are wrong

Well Jesus why didn't someone just say this!?

Sure that's that so, job done. 4 more years.

Ash.J.Williams

Cody montana wrote: »

Because?

Gawd...here we go again

StringerBell

Yes, to be asked to flesh out a declarative statement is indeed an unreasonable request.

StringerBell

Yes, to be asked to flesh out a declarative statement is indeed an unreasonable request.

is_that_so

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

Gawd...here we go again

I think most of us assumed that was the title of the essay as we're not inside your head so please elaborate ...

For example
I'm not entirely sure at present, as an incumbent usually get the benefit of the doubt. However, he's not popular, is not exactly demonstrating full faculties and driven by utter narcissism. Even so, if the Dems don't get their candidates right he could get right back in.

MadYaker

eagle eye wrote: »

Biden looks and acts really old. Bernie sticks to his policy talk but once he gets pulled outside what he knows he looks old and out of touch.
Trump comes across like he knows what he is going on about.

The guy can barely string a coherent sentence together and you think he sounds like he knows what’s he’s talking about? He can’t even talk properly he just rants.

Manic Moran

I just came across on the PBS website an interesting survey entitled "Do you live in a bubble?". It's designed to help you understand whether or not you understand the majority of what the electorate are like and why they may not agree with what seems obvious to you.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/do-you-live-in-a-bubble-a-quiz-2

It won't cross over to you guys entirely, as some of the questions simply won't apply. The questions are also a couple years old (It's a 2016 survey), but still generally valid. If you are wondering why some of the questions are asked, which are often a little surprising, there is a little popup for each question, but the basic gist of it is that they all refer to extremely common things in the US which a very large portion of the population does or is affected by.

In my case, at 26 points, I was only one step down from "I live in a complete bubble." It's out of a hundred. 100 is "Common or garden working class person".

FatherTed

Manic Moran wrote: »

I just came across on the PBS website an interesting survey entitled "Do you live in a bubble?". It's designed to help you understand whether or not you understand the majority of what the electorate are like and why they may not agree with what seems obvious to you.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/do-you-live-in-a-bubble-a-quiz-2

It won't cross over to you guys entirely, as some of the questions simply won't apply. The questions are also a couple years old (It's a 2016 survey), but still generally valid. If you are wondering why some of the questions are asked, which are often a little surprising, there is a little popup for each question, but the basic gist of it is that they all refer to extremely common things in the US which a very large portion of the population does or is affected by.

In my case, at 26 points, I was only one step down from "I live in a complete bubble." It's out of a hundred. 100 is "Common or garden working class person".

Got 23(I live in the US). So if I fish or go to the Waffle house or watch Nascar and drive a pickup truck, I'd be more in the Bubble?

Manic Moran

Less in a bubble.

rossie1977

Latest Wisconsin poll, a vital state as I see little path to 270 for the Dem candidate should they not win this..

Biden leads Trump by 9
Sanders leads Trump by 4
Trump vs Warren and Harris is a tie.

4068ac1elhodqr

Wonder is Joe's health is of concern, already plagued with health issues, his left eye filled up with blood during a CNN debate, wonder how common is such an incident.
Certainly not a good image on live tv.



Out to 3rd fav now on the markets, a better candidate is Mr.Yang who is now now up to 6th Fav for POTUS, overtaking Pete & Pence.

spacecoyote

Despite only 10 making the 3rd debate, it'll be at least 11 by the look of things for the 4th. Steyer has now met the required criteria to qualify.

Seems there is a bit of controversy around Gabbard too. She is claiming that she has a third qualifying poll, but the Dems are saying that the poll didn't meet the required criteria, so it doesn't count.

If its at 11/12, assuming none of the current top 10 drop out, that would mean they're back to a 2 night debate again I assume.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/at-least-11-candidates-will-make-the-fourth-democratic-debate/

Rjd2

Tulsi has been very poorly treated regarding this debate, but to be expected as the DNC loath her. Its very odd as she has zero chance of winning.

The Phantom Jipper

Rjd2 wrote: »

Tulsi has been very poorly treated regarding this debate, but to be expected as the DNC loath her. Its very odd as she has zero chance of winning.

How has she been poorly treated? The rules are the same for everyone and she has struggled to get over the pitifully low bar that has been set. I don't think any of them have cause for complaint if they can't get over 2% in a handful of the dozens and dozens of polls that are in scope.