US Presidential Election 2020

ancapailldorcha

everlast75 wrote: »

Is there any merit in the thought that none of the Dems would vote for Trump, but some of the Reps might vote for Biden?

I haven't seen data but the thing with such a polarised contest is that there aren't really any undecideds. The main thing with your question is why would a Democrat vote for Trump? Biden is fairly centrist by US standards, old, white, Christian and presentable. Trump is far right so anyone who'd vote Democrat is just too misaligned to pick him over Biden though that's a generalisation.

Faugheen

everlast75 wrote: »

because we all know how good he is at taking advice and changing his behaviour....

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1317949326203772931?s=20

hard too see how many minds this debate may actually change?

If he was to try to stick to this, I’d be telling Biden to interrupt him subtly, like he kept doing with Paul Ryan in 2012.

Trump would likely get wound up and go back to his usual self. Job done.

seamus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The main thing with your question is why would a Democrat vote for Trump? Biden is fairly centrist by US standards, old, white, Christian and presentable. Trump is far right so anyone who'd vote Democrat is just too misaligned to pick him over Biden though that's a generalisation.

I guess politics has a such a cult impact in the US that many people would be "cultural" democrats or republicans.

In the same way that a certain percentage of Irish Catholics say they don't believe in God, I imagine a certain percentage of democrats and republicans are utterly disconnected from what that's supposed to mean and call themselves a Democrat because that's what their family is and that's what they were brought up as.

VinLieger

everlast75 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1318051738100756481?s=20

Interesting figures.

Is there any merit in the thought that none of the Dems would vote for Trump, but some of the Reps might vote for Biden?

For comparison only 4 million had voted early by October 21st 2016

everlast75

I read somewhere (I'll try find it) about 85% of no party affiliation are Biden.

duploelabs

VinLieger wrote: »

For comparison only 4 million had voted early by October 21st 2016

That would be reflected by the amount of people remotely voting because of Covid rather than a metric of motivation

Foxtrol

seamus wrote: »

I guess politics has a such a cult impact in the US that many people would be "cultural" democrats or republicans.

In the same way that a certain percentage of Irish Catholics say they don't believe in God, I imagine a certain percentage of democrats and republicans are utterly disconnected from what that's supposed to mean and call themselves a Democrat because that's what their family is and that's what they were brought up as.

I read a few articles that a sizeable number of those Dems that voted for Trump have switched parties for 2020. It has been a target for the Trump campaign since he won in 2016, presumably in case a moderate GOP candidate tried to primary Trump.

VinLieger

duploelabs wrote: »

That would be reflected by the amount of people remotely voting because of Covid rather than a metric of motivation

Ohh i know you cant compare the situations its just interesting to see the difference.

But consider those votes are now a fixed point so whatever happens in the next two weeks cannot effect them. This fascinates me when you also consider 127 million people voted in 2016 so we could be looking at somewhere around 20% of votes already being cast in that fixed point.

everlast75

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1318195004578422785?s=19

Can't be good news for 45...

Quin_Dub

VinLieger wrote: »

Ohh i know you cant compare the situations its just interesting to see the difference.

But consider those votes are now a fixed point so whatever happens in the next two weeks cannot effect them. This fascinates me when you also consider 127 million people voted in 2016 so we could be looking at somewhere around 20% of votes already being cast in that fixed point.

The number of registered voters is way up compared to 2016 and voter enthusiasm is also a lot higher this time around then it was in 2016



All the indicators are that this has the potential to be a record breaking turn-out.

eire4

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The number of registered voters is way up compared to 2016 and voter enthusiasm is also a lot higher this time around then it was in 2016



All the indicators are that this has the potential to be a record breaking turn-out.

It certainly will be interesting to see what the final numbers are. The US has not even hit 60% turnout for a presidential election since 1968 when it was just over 60% and they have not hit 70% since 1900!

As a comparison the lowest turnout in an Irish election ever over the past 100 years was just over 61% in 1923.

Water John

Since we're on page 538, forecasts might be appropriate at this point. Think Biden will pass 320 EC votes and Dems swing the Senate.

Igotadose

Water John wrote: »

Since we're on page 538, forecasts might be appropriate at this point. Think Biden will pass 320 EC votes and Dems swing the Senate.

Take the challenge! Fill out https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps, tell us your results and how you chose 'swing states.'

Thanks.

Also one thing to note, in relation to people saying the polls got it all wrong. Polls were pretty much spot on for the midterms which are a more recent indicator. Can't see it not being a huge swing towards the Dems, particularly after this year.

Water John

I wouldn't argue largely with the CNN map but think Biden will flip one big one, like Florida. Might be close but Biden having won anyway, will have De Santis wasting his time contesting.

eire4

Deleted User wrote: »

Also one thing to note, in relation to people saying the polls got it all wrong. Polls were pretty much spot on for the midterms which are a more recent indicator. Can't see it not being a huge swing towards the Dems, particularly after this year.

Anybody saying polls got it all wrong in 2016 is either being disingenuous or wilfully ignorant. They did not get it wrong. The average of the final week polls in 2016 had Clinton up by 3.1% nationally her final margin was 2.1% so they were pretty accurate.

Quin_Dub

Deleted User wrote: »

Also one thing to note, in relation to people saying the polls got it all wrong. Polls were pretty much spot on for the midterms which are a more recent indicator. Can't see it not being a huge swing towards the Dems, particularly after this year.

And also - If you look at the polls from 2016 particularly in the swing States , they actually under estimated Clintons vote.

On average she got about 2% (not percentage points) more than the polls indicated.

The thing they got wrong was the undecideds - Which simply don't exist this time.

Igotadose

Water John wrote: »

I wouldn't argue largely with the CNN map but think Biden will flip one big one, like Florida. Might be close but Biden having won anyway, will have De Santis wasting his time contesting.

I'm with you on that, but lately been thinking that Biden has a really good chance in PA, GA and IA, yield 312 Biden, 225 Trump. Pretty sizeable victory. Florida would be icing on the cake.

eire4

eire4 wrote: »

Anybody saying polls got it all wrong in 2016 is either being disingenuous or wilfully ignorant. They did not get it wrong. The average of the final week polls in 2016 had Clinton up by 3.1% nationally her final margin was 2.1% so they were pretty accurate.

I'd totally agree but I just find it interesting that they never consider how poorly 2018 went for the GOP, plus the fact it was accurately predicted.

eire4

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd totally agree but I just find it interesting that they never consider how poorly 2018 went for the GOP, plus the fact it was accurately predicted.

I think it is all part of the "newspeak" world that Republicans and many right wing people live in in general. Reality and facts and science are not relevant unless they fit their narrative.

everlast75

You'd have to wonder if this is politically clever when Fauci has a higher public approval rating than Trump himself and most peoples' lives have been affected negatively by COVID

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/1318216044843048960?s=19

VinLieger

everlast75 wrote: »

You'd have to wonder if this is politically clever when Fauci has a higher public approval rating than Trump himself and most peoples' lives have been affected negatively by COVID

https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker/status/1318216044843048960?s=19

That's the thing he's not politically clever, he only knows how to appeal to his base.

Christy42

eire4 wrote: »

It certainly will be interesting to see what the final numbers are. The US has not even hit 60% turnout for a presidential election since 1968 when it was just over 60% and they have not hit 70% since 1900!

As a comparison the lowest turnout in an Irish election ever over the past 100 years was just over 61% in 1923.

If they hit high numbers then Republicans are screwed. They have stated so themselves before. that they lose when people get out to vote.

It is difficult to see where Trump makes up the ground. "But her (his) emails isn't resonating as loud. There is little he can pin Biden on and the current state of affairs happened when he was president (as much as his attack ads seem to forget it).

Still the main thing a lot of people working out the odds forget is that the states are not independent. If there is a late switch to the right there is likely a similar swing in all of them. This leads them to overegg the favourites chance (538 doesn't do this and actually gave a reasonable probability to Trump winning without the popular vote).

StringerBell

stefanovich wrote: »

I don't have the time or patience to address that wall of text. Truth and fiction interleaved.

I'm not saying Trump did great but the USA was always going to be a disaster. They have lots of obese and diabetic people. Lots of people with pre existing conditions.

It is absolutely ridiculous to initiate a discussion point by asking people what trump should have done then coming back with that response after being provided with suggestions.

Zubeneschamali

Christy42 wrote: »

538 doesn't do this and actually gave a reasonable probability to Trump winning without the popular vote).

538 right now: Trump wins 12 in a 100. Biden 88.

EC forecast 347:191

Brian?

Water John wrote: »

Since we're on page 538, forecasts might be appropriate at this point. Think Biden will pass 320 EC votes and Dems swing the Senate.

Biden to hit 340+
Dems to take Senate and increase majority in House.

briany

Trump has another rally on today. Looking at the 'pre-game' coverage, so to speak, and REM was just playing over the PA. Can artists request that their songs not be played at campaign events, or is that just for songs which are adopted as official campaign themes? I'd imagine Michael Stipe of all people would be thoroughly disgusted to think that any of his music has anything to do with Trump.

Water John

GOP just ignores, cease and desist. Laws and Rules are for other people.

Quin_Dub

The current RCP "No Toss-ups" model has it as Biden 357 to Trump 181.

That gives Biden places like Iowa and Georgia , I don't think he'll take either of those , so I'll go with Biden 335 to Trump 203 right now.

Polling goes quiet for a few days now until after the last debate on Thursday so let's see where things sit Tuesday/Wednesday of next week for anther review.

Tell me how

briany wrote: »

Trump has another rally on today. Looking at the 'pre-game' coverage, so to speak, and REM was just playing over the PA. Can artists request that their songs not be played at campaign events, or is that just for songs which are adopted as official campaign themes? I'd imagine Michael Stipe of all people would be thoroughly disgusted to think that any of his music has anything to do with Trump.

Been there, done that.

R.E.M. said they sent a cease-and-desist notice to Donald Trump.