Brexit discussion thread IV

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no getting around it that despite the assurances from the heads of the EU, the UK has been allowed to bypass the time lines again and again. Phase !, back in December, was supposed to be the deadline, before we ever got to Phase 2, yet here we are we no agreement on Phase 1 and the Uk have effectively rolled Phase 1 into Phase 2. So that in itself was a big success for the UK.

Phase 2 was to start once sufficient progress had been made on phase 1 which was achieved with UK agreeing to the EU terms. May then has spent the following 6 months trying to back peddle on that promise but that's not an issue since EU has clearly stated; and keep stating; that until phase 1 is fully legalized and signed they are not going to discuss phase 2 (not that there is much to discuss at this stage anyway since UK's position is about as coherent as a someone throwing paint on a wall to see what may stick).

The thinking seems to be that the EU gains nothing from putting walls in the way, given that the ultimate timeline is already set in stone, 29th March 2019.

EU has no reason to stop waiting but in the end neither can they force UK to actually come to a position to share in the first place. They are not omnipotent despite the Sun's claims.

So at best the UK is achieving some can kicking, whilst not really getting any closer to an actual solution.

Pretty much this; they are still trying to figure out what position they should take and the government has still no clue what the position is suppose to be with every member fighting for their pet solution. Minor details such as 99% of their ideas & solutions are not viable has not even been discussed yet. It's very much like the UK paper on Fishing; it's assuming EU has no opinion and will accept what ever UK proposes despite all the facts to the opposite of this. The fact this farce is going on now is only a proof how disconnected the UK politicians are to reality and to be honest I'd argue Trump has a better grasp of reality than they do. At least Trump's suggestions tends to have some (albeit weak) connection to workable solutions.

It is somewhat crazy that 2 years into the process, and only 9 months left, we still have no idea what the outcome for the NI border is going to be. What effect it will have on trade. What additional security and/or customs personnel will be required.

Hard border; you can hope for something else but if your negotiation partner has no mandate to negotiate in the first place and the default position is hard border if no deal is struck the outcome is pretty clear at this stage.

trellheim

The Chequers cabinet awayday tomorrow is to agree a draft of the white paper, essentially UK post brexit stance.

Key facts : something must give; there are a number of incompatible positions.

I'd expect something to be hammered out, but with something like a 'time limit' included.

May has not shown she can control the cabinet though so it could well be get in line or resign but she's not done this so far.

Your clue is to the days leaks on twitter, watch laura kuenssberg , tim shipman, sam coates

An Ciarraioch

Enzokk wrote: »

The BBC has more information on the new plan the UK will present to the EU. Seems cake is very much there to be eaten and to be had.

Downing Street sets out some details of new Brexit customs plan



So just to see if I have this right, they want to be have an open border with no tariffs, but only because they will set their own tariffs and will monitor the goods and determine whether there is any to be paid. This has already been rejected, but sure let them propose it again.

On regulations they will closely mirror the EU, but will decide where to deviate. So what happens when PM Johnson or PM JRM or PM Gove decide they don't want to closely mirror the EU any longer? Have they actually thought this through? Are people getting paid for presenting this as options?

Some of the BTL replies to that BBC article wouldn't be out of place in the Mail or Express.

joeysoap

This bbc article would seem to confirm that the UK electorate haven’t a clear view on what kind of Brexit they prefer. Not surprising in view of the government and opposition messages on Brexit.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44532288

Imreoir2

We have had the "Customs Partnership", we have had "Max-Fac".

Now we have...
*drum roll please*


The "FCA" (facilitated customs arrangement). It is the "best of both worlds" and will allow the UK the freedom to set its own tariffs on goods arriving into the country, using technology (which will be partly in existance eventully, promise) to track where those goods end up.

The UK will closely mirror EU regulatory rules, unless it dosen't.

It's not yet clear if the EU will accept this brilliant proposal.

Let's apply the EU's litmus test, shal we?

Will it be temporary? No (thats good)
Does it solve the Irish border issue fully or partly? No (bad)
Does it respect the integrity of EU customs policy? No (bad)
How is it supervised? It's not (bad)
How will the UK system evolve as the EU's does? Who knows (Bad)
Will the EU need to change its trade policy? Maybe? (Bad)

It's not looking good then, damn the EU for its bullying reasonableness. :rolleyes:

briany

Infini wrote: »

Noone wants this but those certain idiots in the UK.

I'm finding it harder and harder to understand why May doesn't tell those 'certain idiots' to F off and call their bluff. They're a minority whose vocality belies their size. If they want to sulk off and join UKIP, let them. If they want to challenge May for the job of PM, let them. I wouldn't want the job any more, if I were May, given the intractable nature of current negotiations. You're just going to end up as the principle face for whatever disaster Brexit brings while Mogg, Gove and Johnson can avoid much of that blame despite pulling the strings offstage.



And if Mogg, Gove and Johnson want to start some motion of no-confidence - let them. Do they want to risk a Corbyn government or any further parliamentary chaos that impedes Brexit?



Is it only that May has such an irrational thirst for power that she refuses to fall on the sword? What of her legacy? Falling on the sword may be the only thing that saves it at this stage.

Zubeneschamali

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It is the "best of both worlds" and will allow the UK the freedom to set its own tariffs on goods arriving into the country, using technology (which will be partly in existance eventully, promise) to track where those goods end up.

All the cake from max-fac PLUS the unicorns for all from the Customs partnership!

It is just another example of the UK politicians arguing with each other, and not even attempting to address the EU.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Enough of the cake jokes please. Posts deleted.

Igotadose

briany wrote: »

I'm finding it harder and harder to understand why May doesn't tell those 'certain idiots' to F off and call their bluff. They're a minority whose vocality belies their size. If they want to sulk off and join UKIP, let them. If they want to challenge May for the job of PM, let them. I wouldn't want the job any more, if I were May, given the intractable nature of current negotiations. You're just going to end up as the principle face for whatever disaster Brexit brings while Mogg, Gove and Johnson can avoid much of that blame despite pulling the strings offstage.



And if Mogg, Gove and Johnson want to start some motion of no-confidence - let them. Do they want to risk a Corbyn government or any further parliamentary chaos that impedes Brexit?



Is it only that May has such an irrational thirst for power that she refuses to fall on the sword? What of her legacy? Falling on the sword may be the only thing that saves it at this stage.

Sometimes, a cigar's just a cigar. May's not done what you suggest because she WANTS it the way it is. It really is impossible to understand anyones motives, no one can read minds, but her actions certainly show she's happy with things the way they're going. I agree wholeheartedly that if she threw the gauntlet to the Mogglodytes or BoJo, they'd go simpering off to whine at their club meetings. The only willfully self-destructive bunch might be the DUP, but I think they, too, wouldn't crash the government and lose the most power they've ever had to influence anything.

So, nothing'll change. There'll be some farcical white paper published in a day or so, the EU will reject it, and the clock will tick over waiting for another UK response.

An Ciarraioch

Usually, Peter Foster tends to be a level-headed political commentator, especially on Twitter, but even he seems somewhat feverish today, comparing the EU's stance to the Treaty of Versailles (soft paywall, can be accessed using Facebook):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/05/europe-must-help-theresa-may-create-third-way-brexit-face-catastrophic/#comments

Leroy42

I see the reponses to the Land Rover statement about losing business because of a hard brexit has been met with the now typical response from Brexiteers.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme, Mr Paterson said: “What is really vital is that they will be better off if the Government delivers on what the Prime Minister promised me in the Commons yesterday if we really do leave the customs union.

“It’s really important this, Jaguar Land Rover will have access to cheaper parts and components all around the world.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/984163/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Jaguar-Land-Rover-today-latest-car-firm-Airbus-MP-no-deal-vote

Now this is quite telling. If I am part of the senior management team of the parent company (Tata I think) then I would be pretty worried that the CEO of Land Rover made such a monumental mistake as to not know that things would be better. It seems he should have asked Peterson for some input before making such an ili informed comment.

Though, it is also getting a little worrying that it appears that the people charged with running some of the largest companies in the UK, Airbus, BMW and LR, seem so out of touch with business realities.

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Usually, Peter Foster tends to be a level-headed political commentator, especially on Twitter, but even he seems somewhat feverish today, comparing the EU's stance to the Treaty of Versailles (soft paywall, can be accessed using Facebook):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/05/europe-must-help-theresa-may-create-third-way-brexit-face-catastrophic/#comments

This is the headline

Europe must help Theresa May create a 'third way' on Brexit or face a catastrophic rupture

I do love the wording of this. It is now on the EU shoulders to avoid such a rupture, despite it being the "will of the people".

JRM, Boris etc are all very quick to point out at every opportunity that the will of the people is Brexit, yet somehow it falls to the EU to find a way for that to happen without any impact on the UK!

Inquitus

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see the reponses to the Land Rover statement about losing business because of a hard brexit has been met with the now typical response from Brexiteers.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/984163/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Jaguar-Land-Rover-today-latest-car-firm-Airbus-MP-no-deal-vote

Now this is quite telling. If I am part of the senior management team of the parent company (Tata I think) then I would be pretty worried that the CEO of Land Rover made such a monumental mistake as to not know that things would be better. It seems he should have asked Peterson for some input before making such an ili informed comment.

Though, it is also getting a little worrying that it appears that the people charged with running some of the largest companies in the UK, Airbus, BMW and LR, seem so out of touch with business realities.

Yep JIT manufacturing works excellently when you are ocean freighting stuff from Australia or China, instead of having it delivered inside 24 hours from mainland Europe, not to mention that Global freight costs are escalating rapidly due to increases in Oil prices and capacity constraints, so it might be cheaper to buy it, but any savings will be wiped out by delivery costs!

Leroy42

And lets not forget the currency fluctuations. EU is a rather stable, boring and safe place. But of course it all goes back to the idea that everyone will want to deal in GBP with the UK, rather than their own currency.

I do wonder if that will change. Most of the trade that our business does with the UK is currently in GBP, will EU companies now look to do business based in Euros?

trellheim

Merkel and May presser in Berlin at the mo

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1yoKMVnALPWGQ

trellheim

Katy Adler reporting it. Looks like Merkel sticking to the Commission to sort it out.

Merkel meeting May in Berlin but says negotiations are between U.K. and Commission #brexit

Imreoir2

trellheim wrote: »

Katy Adler reporting it. Looks like Merkel sticking to the Commission to sort it out.

No surprises there then.

May is reportedly going to run a draft of the white paper by Merkle during the meeting, hopefully Merkle puts the boot in during their meeting and lets May know that her proposals, as reported, wont be accepted. At least then May will be able to puncture the arguments of Borris et al tomorrow.

Leroy42

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No surprises there then.

May is reportedly going to run a draft of the white paper by Merkle during the meeting, hopefully Merkle puts the boot in during their meeting and lets May know that her proposals, as reported, wont be accepted. At least then May will be able to puncture the arguments of Borris et al tomorrow.

TBF, she doesn't need to get Merkels input to work that out.

Leroy42

Oh, and add the electoral commission to the list of things that Brexiteers want to get rid of in the UK.

For a group wanting their country back, they sure don't like an awful lot of things about it.

ambro25

Merkel’s just been in enough hot water at home and across the EU over immigration, to risk appearing like she would ride roughshod over the EU27’s steadfast “talk to Barnier” brick wall, presented since day 1 to the UK’s serial attempts at dividing-and-conquering.

“Mutti” knows better, than to do anything which could give ammunition to anti-EU movements across the EU27 constantly peddling the ‘Germany-rules-the-EU’ line.

May should have known better than to even try. Running that draft past Merkel makes her look fragilised.

Nody

ambro25 wrote: »

May should have known better than to even try. Running that draft past Merkel makes her look fragilised.

Is that even possible at this stage? I mean no one can seriously today think May is actually in charge of anything; rather she's simply sprinting between camps with proposals to see if they are willing to agree or not. At this stage an Octopus would have shown more spine than what she's done to date...

Then again it's simply now expected if we consider UK politics. Remember how Davis was going to strike a deal with Germany? And I'm willing to bet that UK has done exactly nothing about Gibraltar as well (which as the strongest pro EU part of UK will get the worst treatment once Spain puts up the hard border and the companies based there can't sell into EU) and Gibraltar may actually be Spanish before NI becomes Irish (their shock will be felt way faster than the rest of UK). At this stage I've gone past the disbelief, the rage and the sheer shock of their failure as politicians and simply sit back and watch the slow motion crash. There is no plan, there is no leadership, there is no brilliant hidden strategy behind it all; it's simply sheer and utter incompetence across the board on the UK side. This is one of the easiest negotiations they can do with a partner who very much want to make a deal and has been up front with all the options on the table and they STILL fail to even get to the table to read the deals due to infighting...

ambro25

Nody wrote: »

ambro25 wrote: »

May should have known better than to even try. Running that draft past Merkel makes her look fragilised.

Is that even possible at this stage? I mean no one can seriously today think May is actually in charge of anything (...)

I still adhere to the belief that there is (self-interested) method to her gyratory madness, because she is the lynchpin both between extremes within her party, and relative to the mortal threat that is Corbyn, including even the DUP in the equation: if she goes, most everybody (on her side of the House of Commons) goes, likely for as lengthy a political desert errance, as Blair and his acolytes since 2010. And she knows that, and has been playing on that ever since July 2016, with the criticality of her ‘fuse’ function only increasing over time as the crisis deepens.

But maintaining that fragile equilibrium at home (all useless that it is at term, i.e. by end March 2019) mandates that she does not appear unsure of her moves to her domestic political supporters and opponents alike (lest the balance tips too far one side and she’s ejected) - and running her draft past outsiders like Merkel achieves just that (IMHO). Seeking early feedback, especially prior to Chequers tomorrow, makes it look like she’s still unsure of herself before walking into the arena full of lions, whip and chair in hand.

All above considered strictly from the viewpoint of domestic short-term political play (which is all that seems to matter to the players, still and this late in the ‘real’ stakes), with less than lip service to what would or could be best for HMS UK, of course.

Leroy42

Nody wrote: »

This is one of the easiest negotiations they can do with a partner who very much want to make a deal and has been up front with all the options on the table and they STILL fail to even get to the table to read the deals due to infighting...

This.

The hard Brexiteers seem totally against any osrt of relationship that is not controlled by the UK. They are dealing with a group, as you saw, that can clearly see the benefits of a deal with the UK given they have the history.

Next they will have to move on to India, and US, and China. None of which need the Uk in the same sense and all will be looking for their own 'red lines' but knowing that the UK totally needs them.

The UK should really be looking to learn serious lessons to how they mishandled the whole affair, getting to the point where May decided that the right approach to turning up at a June summit which was originally meant to finalise the deal but couldn't be as she had nothing to offer, was to lecture the EU on how they needed the UK to keep their citizens safe and they had better wise up.

True of not, IMO this was completely the wrong approach to take and the wrong time to do it.

trellheim

the poo flinging is well under way

Theresa May showed Angela Merkel her customs plan before she showed her own Cabinet, it has emerged this afternoon:

Cabinet now have Theresa May’s customs proposal, paper arrived with them at 2pm. But a fair bit of grumbling about how long ministers have been kept in the dark on it and how Angela Merkel was briefed on it before they received the paper

— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) July 5, 2018

The Cabinet are livid about this – why have Number 10 kept them in the dark while briefing the media and the German government? Who was told first, Dexeu or the Germans?

https://order-order.com/2018/07/05/may-shows-merkel-customs-plan-cabinet/

Bigus

These are some sensible comments from British readers of Car magazine reacting to JLR announcement that Brexit is bad for UK,
https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/brexit/

From ; BernieHarper;
History lesson: In 1945 Churchill wanted a United States of Europe, but the UK was excluded from the Common Market for decades by de Gaulle because he feared British domination. We finally entered in 1973 and confirmed it in the 1975 referendum, strongly supported by Thatcher. She was a big fan of the EEC and was the driving force here behind the single market. This in turn led to the UK becoming the prime investment location for foreign countries (particularly car manufacturers) wishing to invest in Europe. But the Europhobics hated the EU and not only convinced her German reunification was a dangerous concentration of power, but also that the EU would become socialist under Jacques Delors. Both these beliefs were groundless, but when she was deposed and replaced by Europhile Tories, Brexit became their lifetime obsession.
After intense lobbying by car/aerospace companies, unions and the CBI, the PM is currently trying to convince a small proportion of Ministers and M.P.s to accept the softest of Brexits. She plans dress-up the soft Brexit car companies need as something harder that lifelong Europhobes can sell to their constituents. Despite two years of arguing, nothing she can come up with will pass unmolested through all 28 parliaments of the EU. And it cannot avoid a hard border in Ireland or looking like anything Leavers were promised in the referendum. And as the Leave campaign is now known to have been illegally funded and corrupt, expect the whole mess to be rejected at the inevitable second referendum.

From Disqutec;
In 31 years time, Britain will be seen by EU as today’s Turkey: once the centre of a great empire, located at the borders of the Continent, driving on the wrong side of the road and still drinking tea.
...and still failing to be accepted as EU full member since 1987.

Leroy42

Well turns out there was a reason why they kept it hidden.

David Davis says May's new Brexit customs plan is unworkable

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/05/david-davis-says-mays-new-brexit-customs-plan-is-unworkable

So she flies over to meet Merkle to get her support, and whilst she is gone the guy who actual job it is to the the bloody thing is saying that the plan is unworkable.

So DD, what is your great plan then?

trellheim

keeping the humour going, Fox news is reporting that UKGOV will not allow Farage meet Trump

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/07/04/uk-reportedly-tells-trump-cannot-meet-with-brexit-architect-nigel-farage.html

An Ciarraioch

Some leaks to Laura Kuenssberg:

http://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1014907408987099136

http://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1014909390145622019

trellheim

Some early reports

Number 10’s proposal is that there will be a “common rule book” between the UK and EU on all goods, including agri-foods. UK will commit by treaty to mirroring EU rules and face “consequences” if we ever seek to diverge on anything.

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1014872751377707014

Capt'n Midnight

Nody wrote: »

And now Jaguar Land Rover is the latest to join the queue of businesses Boris can tell to shut up.

According to the Express, Brexit would cost the German Car Industry similar.

Though it's €1.9 for them vs £1.2 for ONE company in the UK.
"They need us more than we need them" :rolleyes:

The key findings from the report show a “no-deal” Brexit scenario - with the UK using WTO duties and the Pound falling 10 percent against the Euro - would force a cumulative cost increase of €1.9 billion,