Drought/Low Rainfall Watch - Summer 2018

Gaoth Laidir

Here are the latest grass-growth figures, in kg of dry matter per hectare per day. The average for this time of the year is around 70-80 kg DM/ha/da, but look at Wexford there at only 9.

SleetAndSnow

Just Arrived back in cork city after over a week away. Flying into cork airport, all the fields were basically yellow with only a few exceptions which I’ve not seen before. The Lough in the city center has the lowest water level I’ve seen, able to see the wall beginning to round.

Grass still hasn’t grown outside the house and has become even more yellow, only thing growing is weeds. No improvement really

Graces7

As is being said, we out here in the West are blessed. I heard a shower in the night too. All sounds devastated and devastating elsewhere.

Hang on in there; has to break sometime.

West Mayo, offshore island

whelan2

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Here are the latest grass-growth figures, in kg of dry matter per hectare per day. The average for this time of the year is around 70-80 kg DM/ha/da, but look at Wexford there at only 9.

Take those figures with a pinch of salt. Most farmers aren't measuring at all this last few weeks due to zero growth

SleetAndSnow

The Cork County Council are out cutting the grass today. They are literally just driving over the grass and its not cutting anything except a few tall weeds its so short. Any bits they can cut are now yellow, removing some of the remaining green..

SleetAndSnow

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

The Cork County Council are out cutting the grass today. They are literally just driving over the grass and its not cutting anything except a few tall weeds its so short. Any bits they can cut are now yellow, removing some of the remaining green..

This is really dumb. It just destroys what is left of the green grass. They did this in parts of Ballincollig last week and there is not a green blade left.

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1019179655486758913

SleetAndSnow

Very light drizzle in cork city, stopped now but it didn’t wet anything except cars. Ground is bone dry.

Leaves are turning yellow here. Last “proper” rain was the May 12th thunderstorms if I recall.

hinault

Very overcast in north Dublin city this morning. There were a couple of drops of rain but nothing to register on any scale. Clouds are dark but little or no rainfall.

Graces7

Heavy shower and all is sodden and humid and the midges are starving! Here the drought is well on its way out..
Lovely familiar weather..

West Mayo. offshore island

JJayoo

I planted 600 oak trees this year from about Jan- march, a lot of them have lost their leaves hopefully they aren't dead

Cantona's Collars

Just drove past a contractor cutting the 'green' areas around one estate down here in Wexford. All he's doing is rising dust.

pauldry

yes v heavy shower in Sligo just there.

5mm in one hour

Think Met Eireann need to amend the Scattered Light showers wording and add some heavier bursts in the Northwest....Markree had 4.7mm

So far in Sligo its rained Saturday Sunday Monday (a little)and Tuesday so there is a "NOWT" here.

Probably will last 10 months like the one before the 40 dry days.

mickmackey1

Just letting you know that we'll be coming up to steal your water very soon.

pauldry

Next week looks pretty wet after Monday....so far

So wait till then before you steal

I still think a washout August is possible but most others dont

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Next week looks pretty wet after Monday....so far

So wait till then before you steal

I still think a washout August is possible but most others dont

Who are these "most others"?

tanko

pauldry wrote: »

Next week looks pretty wet after Monday....so far

So wait till then before you steal

I still think a washout August is possible but most others dont

Can you expand on this a bit please, how much rain are we talking about??

km79

pauldry wrote: »

Next week looks pretty wet after Monday....so far

So wait till then before you steal

I still think a washout August is possible but most others dont

Law of averages
I’m with you

iamwhoiam

So sorry for my post ! I posted in the wrong thread . It must have looked so rude . Sorry

sryanbruen

I expect August to be a much more unsettled month, I'm just curious of who are these many others? The only model or outlook I've seen that suggests more of the same is the UK Met Office Glosea5 model. CFSv2 flips and flops every week but for the past few days, it's shown a major change of the pattern with northern blocking setting up during August and a trough parked over top of us. BCC is much the same.

pauldry

Law of averages I base my opinion on too

Many others that I rely on are basically just trawling through different articles online about the drought and seeing that it will continue severe right through Summer

From what I see I was thinking in NW wed get dry until 10th July and then rain most days after that. It was actually dry until the weekend and Id say thats it for Sligo Summer. How can I know that? I cant but its been extremely dry for NW and rain is very likely here.

The worst I think the South and East will get is half their normal rain rest of Summer and West 1.5times normal

August though could slap me in the face with another heatwave. Im just going on a hunch. 2mm of further rain since I last wrote. If the low next week did manage to come down on us it could create really heavy rain and the West could end up near normal rain for the month.

That would be as amazing as the drought.

KingdomRushed

pauldry wrote: »

Law of averages I base my opinion on too

Many others that I rely on are basically just trawling through different articles online about the drought and seeing that it will continue severe right through Summer

From what I see I was thinking in NW wed get dry until 10th July and then rain most days after that. It was actually dry until the weekend and Id say thats it for Sligo Summer. How can I know that? I cant but its been extremely dry for NW and rain is very likely here.

The worst I think the South and East will get is half their normal rain rest of Summer and West 1.5times normal

August though could slap me in the face with another heatwave. Im just going on a hunch. 2mm of further rain since I last wrote. If the low next week did manage to come down on us it could create really heavy rain and the West could end up near normal rain for the month.

That would be as amazing as the drought.

I would agree that the models are beginning to close in on a pattern now of a low stalled near the west coast for end of July/ early August. To me it signals an increasing likelihood that the drought may end with appreciable rain, enough to offset some of the deficit and lessen the criticality going into Autumn. Will be interesting to watch this

km79

Stalled front
I hate seeing those words in the weather forum

Villain

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I would agree that the models are beginning to close in on a pattern now of a low stalled near the west coast for end of July/ early August. To me it signals an increasing likelihood that the drought may end with appreciable rain, enough to offset some of the deficit and lessen the criticality going into Autumn. Will be interesting to watch this

The problem could be a tale of two halves though with the west seeing plenty of rain and the east seeing very little.

The models have been pushing a proper breakdown back and back for weeks now. I’m sure it will eventually come and the Atlantic will bring some much needed rain, I just wouldn’t be sure it will be all of the Island!

Oneiric 3

Despite the recent rainfall in some places, the running 28 day total up to yesterday, which stands at just 16.6mm (23%) is now at is lowest value this year so far.



Some rain forecast for last Thursday/early Friday, but totals look scant.

Data from Met Éireann.

sryanbruen

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Leinster and Munster

Update:
Soil moisture deficits will generally remain in excess of 75mm over the coming week.

Next update Wednesday 25th July.

Issued: Wednesday 18 July 2018 15:00

Updated: Wednesday 18 July 2018 15:00

Valid from Wednesday 18 July 2018 15:07 to Wednesday 25 July 2018 15:00

giveitholly

sryanbruen wrote: »

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Leinster and Munster

Update:
Soil moisture deficits will generally remain in excess of 75mm over the coming week.

Next update Wednesday 25th July.

Issued: Wednesday 18 July 2018 15:00

Updated: Wednesday 18 July 2018 15:00

Valid from Wednesday 18 July 2018 15:07 to Wednesday 25 July 2018 15:00

Not good news for farmers and vegetable growers

SleetAndSnow

Just drove through Inashannon in Cork where you drive over a bridge to get a look st the river Bandon. I’ve never seen it so low in 18 years of life really. Too think it was on the verge of flooding the town again a few months ago and now it’s most likely at a record low. There are actual verges I’ve never seen and the fields next to it which are usually level, are about 30-40cm above the water now.

West cork is like the city, bone dry with cracking earth

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/worldagweather/status/1019299107100348416

joeysoap

Hosepipe van ending in Northern Ireland tomorrow.