Turning very warm/hot, heatwave conditions likely; Sunday 24th -->

MJohnston

The "5 days of 25C or higher" definition of a heatwave is fairly arbitrary.

There's another which defines it as the daily max being 5C above the average max for more than 5 days. Average max for Phoenix Park in June is 18C, so a heatwave could be defined as 6 days of 23C maximums, which we definitely had.

I prefer this definition, because it's a relative one, instead of being absolutely measured, which is far more realistic a description of what a heatwave is representing (ie. a period of excessively hot weather). If you get 6 days of 18C in January, that would definitely be what you could call a heatwave, even though it wouldn't come close to that 25C definition.

Luckycharms_74

mickger844posts wrote: »

I'm surprised you found the new script. Glad you like it. Yes there is a mobile version. Just go to www.waterfordweather.com on any mobile device and you will see it.

I tried that and its handy for 1-page data.
The original site has the trends etc and other stuff so Ill prop stick to the old site for the time being

Sycamore Tree

When do people think we will next see significant rainfall?
1 week, 2 weeks, further?

MJohnston

MJohnston wrote: »

The "5 days of 25C or higher" definition of a heatwave is fairly arbitrary.

There's another which defines it as the daily max being 5C above the average max for more than 5 days. Average max for Phoenix Park in June is 18C, so a heatwave could be defined as 6 days of 23C maximums, which we definitely had.

I prefer this definition, because it's a relative one, instead of being absolutely measured, which is far more realistic a description of what a heatwave is representing (ie. a period of excessively hot weather). If you get 6 days of 18C in January, that would definitely be what you could call a heatwave, even though it wouldn't come close to that 25C definition.

Actually it appears Evelyn Cusack (and presumably Met E) uses the relative definition too:
http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-weather-heatwave-met-eireann-1000294-Jul2013/

Villain

MJohnston wrote: »

The "5 days of 25C or higher" definition of a heatwave is fairly arbitrary.

There's another which defines it as the daily max being 5C above the average max for more than 5 days. Average max for Phoenix Park in June is 18C, so a heatwave could be defined as 6 days of 23C maximums, which we definitely had.

I prefer this definition, because it's a relative one, instead of being absolutely measured, which is far more realistic a description of what a heatwave is representing (ie. a period of excessively hot weather). If you get 6 days of 18C in January, that would definitely be what you could call a heatwave, even though it wouldn't come close to that 25C definition.

The problem with that is 5c above normal in December being classed as a heatwave would have people laughing and the term heatwave would lose credibility.

Malayalam

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

When do people think we will next see significant rainfall?
1 week, 2 weeks, further?

Never again. We passed through a star gate and we are on a different planet. That's my theory anyway.

Villain

MJohnston wrote: »

Actually it appears Evelyn Cusack (and presumably Met E) uses the relative definition too:
http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-weather-heatwave-met-eireann-1000294-Jul2013/

Met Eireann changed their policy on that recently, they now use the 25c definition.

Cantona's Collars

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

When do people think we will next see significant rainfall?
1 week, 2 weeks, further?

From what the charts say there's high temps for another while yet. No rain.

Slashermcguirk

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

nonsense, Phoenix park which is pretty much in the heart of Dublin has had numerous days 25 or higher. During the very hot week or two, phoenix park was as high as 28 if memory serves me well and was consistently around 25-26. The heat wave has definitely hit Dublin but certainly not as hot as the midlands and parts of the west that week

Phoenix Park had just two days above 25C last week but most days have been 21-25C. Still excellent but I suspect in the shade it could still feel a tad chilly at times with the sea breeze. Even here 15km further inland there's been a coolness to the breeze when you're not in direct sunlight

ok......technicalities. As another person has pointed out, casement in Dublin got 5 consecutive days of 25 or over and Phoenix park was around 24.6 on certain days as opposed to 25 exactly but reached up towards 28. I think it is safe to say Dublin has still been very warm throughout and I don't think a single day over the past month or so has been below 20.

MJohnston

Villain wrote: »

The problem with that is 5c above normal in December being classed as a heatwave would have people laughing and the term heatwave would lose credibility.

I dunno, I think 15C in December would be considered to be abnormally above temperature by most people.

MJohnston

Villain wrote: »

Met Eireann changed their policy on that recently, they now use the 25c definition.

That's grand. I still think it's fair to say there are other ways to conversationally yet accurately define a heatwave, regardless of the official government designation.

Not least because the temperatures experienced by weather stations are usually a bit lower than those experienced by humans - when we're talking about the Dublin max being 1C below an official heatwave designation on a couple of days, it's probably worth just calling that a heatwave.

sryanbruen

I don't think the definition is meant for conversational purposes, it's made for statisticians like myself for historical comparisons.

MetLuver

MJohnston wrote: »

I have to laugh when I see 19-21C described as not truly warm!

19-21c is not truly warm, not even for Ireland... Iceland maybe but in Ireland that's just about passable if not disapointing, especially for June and July.

Ultimate Seduction

MetLuver wrote: »

19-21c is not truly warm, not even for Ireland... Iceland maybe but in Ireland that's just about passable if not disapointing, especially for June and July.

Couldn't care about the temperatures, once the sun is shining and I'm comfortable in a t-shirt it's good enough. There's not that much of a difference in 21c or 25c if your out in the sun

Akrasia

Guess which grass was watered

davo2001

Reading 26.2c in our weather station in Shannon at the moment, no wind to speak of.

MJohnston

sryanbruen wrote: »

I don't think the definition is meant for conversational purposes, it's made for statisticians like myself for historical comparisons.

Sure but even then it's a completely arbitrary definition - the fact that Met Eireann have themselves apparently changed definitions within the last few years kind of invalidates the strictness of it all.

I also just generally think defining it using an absolute figure is a mistake when the word itself means "a period of excessively hot weather" which is a relative definition!

Cantona's Collars

Akrasia wrote: »

Guess which grass was watered

Outside Irish Water's offices?

compsys

MetLuver wrote: »

MJohnston wrote: »

I have to laugh when I see 19-21C described as not truly warm!

19-21c is not truly warm, not even for Ireland... Iceland maybe but in Ireland that's just about passable if not disapointing, especially for June and July.

Yeah. 19-21 is what I’d describe as mild and pleasant. The average summer temp in the milder parts of Ireland is 19/20 anyway. So calling 21 “truly warm” is probably a bit much.

Slashermcguirk

Oak park was the warmest spot yesterday at 27.1 degrees. Most summers that would nearly be a record high but almost feels very ordinary this summer.

Malin head max was 15.5 degrees. Could that be right??? I know it can be much cloudier and cooler up that far north but that seems unusually low given the current conditions in Ireland.

RobertKK

From the 24th June onward my lowest high temperature was a 26.4C.
Average high is coming down but now stands at 28.8C since that date up to yesterday.

MJohnston

MetLuver wrote: »

19-21c is not truly warm, not even for Ireland... Iceland maybe but in Ireland that's just about passable if not disapointing, especially for June and July.

Again, I'll say that I don't think weather station temps provide a useful definition of the experience of humans. They're great for comparing statistically, and using as a baseline for what the actual experience might be, but they don't determine how the weather 'felt' to an average person.

I mean, the biggest thing to point out is that temperature sensors at weather stations are always shaded from solar radiation, whereas your average person will be sitting in direct sunlight, which will increase experienced temperatures massively.

I know "Feels Like" temperature predictions are often fairly arbitrary themselves, but they're a more realistic expectation of the human experience. Dublin last week had several days where the "Feels Like" temperatures were a good 4-5C above the recorded temps.

Donegal Storm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

ok......technicalities. As another person has pointed out, casement in Dublin got 5 consecutive days of 25 or over and Phoenix park was around 24.6 on certain days as opposed to 25 exactly but reached up towards 28. I think it is safe to say Dublin has still been very warm throughout and I don't think a single day over the past month or so has been below 20.

There were 15 days at Dublin airport that didn't top 20C in June and 11 at Phoenix Park, whose station is at the very western extremity of the park. It was a spectacular month throughout but no point trying to massage the figures, Dublin and the northern section of the east coast were amongst the coldest places in the country last month.

It's been perfect for me so I'm not complaining but to get real heat we'd want the high to move just to our west to get rid of the never-ending easterly breeze

hinault

davo2001 wrote: »

Reading 26.2c in our weather station in Shannon at the moment, no wind to speak of.

The breeze that we had here since Sunday, is not as strong today unfortunately and this is adding to sense of heat here.

This weather cannot break too soon in my view.

munsterlegend

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Oak park was the warmest spot yesterday at 27.1 degrees. Most summers that would nearly be a record high but almost feels very ordinary this summer.

Malin head max was 15.5 degrees. Could that be right??? I know it can be much cloudier and cooler up that far north but that seems unusually low given the current conditions in Ireland.

It was 28.2 (I think) yesterday at a met station in Cloyne though not sure if classed as official or not.

Slashermcguirk

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

ok......technicalities. As another person has pointed out, casement in Dublin got 5 consecutive days of 25 or over and Phoenix park was around 24.6 on certain days as opposed to 25 exactly but reached up towards 28. I think it is safe to say Dublin has still been very warm throughout and I don't think a single day over the past month or so has been below 20.

There were 15 days at Dublin airport that didn't top 20C in June and 11 at Phoenix Park, whose station is at the very western extremity of the park. It was a spectacular month throughout but no point trying to massage the figures, Dublin and the northern section of the east coast were amongst the coldest places in the country last month.

It's been perfect for me so I'm not complaining but to get real heat we'd want the high to move just to our west to get rid of the never-ending easterly breeze

only 11 days out of 30 did not go over 20 at phoenix park. Didn't the proper heatwave take place in the 2nd half of June? Still I would think that 19-20 days of over 20 degrees is about on par with the rest of the country. With the exception of maybe Shannon, mout Dillon and a few other locations, surely a lots of Irish locations didn't go over 20 for the whole month of June. From memory it was the 2nd half of June that it ramped up.
What has stood out in Dublin is how dry and warm it has been for over 2 months now (since start of May). Dublin has most certainly been the driest county if you factor in 1st May onwards and quite possibly for June itself too but I could be mistaken there. I seem to recall only 4mm of rain fell in Dublin in the whole month of June!

MadYaker

This is mad stuff altogether. MetEireann reporting that there’s no change in sight. It’s great and all but how long before we start having serious water supply issues?

sryanbruen

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

only 11 days out of 30 did not go over 20 at phoenix park. Didn't the proper heatwave take place in the 2nd half of June? Still I would think that 19-20 days of over 20 degrees is about on par with the rest of the country. With the exception of maybe Shannon, mout Dillon and a few other locations, surely a lots of Irish locations didn't go over 20 for the whole month of June. From memory it was the 2nd half of June that it ramped up.
What has stood out in Dublin is how dry and warm it has been for over 2 months now (since start of May). Dublin has most certainly been the driest county if you factor in 1st May onwards and quite possibly for June itself too but I could be mistaken there. I seem to recall only 4mm of rain fell in Dublin in the whole month of June!

I posted Dublin Airport's driest May/June combinations in the drought thread and 2018 I can safely say is a new record, see here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=107418680#post107418680

dashoonage

ive a weeks holidays on the 14th...hope it holds!

Gonzo

dashoonage wrote: »

ive a weeks holidays on the 14th...hope it holds!

looks good up to about the 16th July, slight chance of a slight break in conditions around the 17th-18th July then there appears to be another reload building after that.

it is entirely possible that all of July could continue warm, settled and sunny. I reckon we're bound to get a thunder outbreak at some stage tho.