2018-2019 Champions Cup

First 4 weeks for the Irish provinces below, along with my own predictions.

Ulster
R1. Ulster v Leicester (W)
R2. Racing v Ulster (L)
R3. Scarlets v Ulster (L)
R4. Ulster v Scarlets (L)

Munster
R.1 Exeter v Munster (L)
R.2 Munster v Gloucester (W)
R3. Munster v Castres (W)
R4. Castres v Munster (W)

Leinster
R.1 Leinster v Wasps (W)
R2. Toulouse v Leinster (W)
R.3 Bath v Leinster (W)
R.4 Leinster v Bath (W)

Of the results above the ones I'm less confident in are Munster away to Castres, Leinster away to Toulouse and Ulster home to Scarlets. All three could go the other way but on the balance of probabilities I'd go with the above.

Leicester are in disarray and I can't see them applying themselves to the competition. They still can put out a quality 23 so it's not going to be an easy ride for Ulster but I think the home team will have more to offer over 80 minutes. I don't think Ulster will pick up another win within the first four rounds as I think the two away games to Racing and Scarlets will go the other way and Ulster will be effectively out of the running. It's a tough enough pool and with a relatively young inexperienced side Ulster will be focusing on the pro14 by round 4 so Scarlets may pick up the away win. If Ulster are still in with a sniff or if they get a bad beating the previous week it might be a different game.

I'm fairly confident Exeter will win at the weekend, I just hope it's a narrow win as a heavy defeat would be damaging for the Munster project this early in the season. I think if Munster can keep it to a 1 score game they've a decent chance of turning that result around at home and a top spot in the pool will still be on the cards. Castres home form will be a deciding factor on the pool and if they target Europe this year all bets are off. It's a punishing pool to be honest, probably only 1 team makes it out.

Leinster should turn Wasps over on Friday. Wasps who just took a beating at home from Gloucester have injury worries across the board and although a few front liners are set to return you would wonder where the type of continuity and fluency in attack will come from to get around Leinster's defence. If Leinster can pick up a win away to Toulouse in round 2 then they'll be comfortably in the driving seat going into the double header against a poor Bath side.

tldr: By round 4 I expect the points to look like:

Leinster 19
Munster 13
Ulster 5

Digifriendly

Excellent summary. Hard to disagree with your predictions. Exeter/Munster/Gloucester/ Castres group looks like the tightest to me. Bonus points could well be crucial as all 4 teams are capable of qualifying. Exeter on current form are the slight favourites while other 3 teams will be hard to beat at home although Gloucester have lost there already in Premiership.

Former Former

Odds with Paddy Power before we kick off:

Leinster 15/8
Saracens 3/1
Exeter 15/2
Montpellier 8/1
Munster, Racing 12/1
Toulon 16/1
....
Ulster 150/1

I think Saracens are the best placed to win it but it's quite open. 15/8 for Leinster are ridiculous odds.

troyzer

Former Former wrote: »

Odds with Paddy Power before we kick off:

Leinster 15/8
Saracens 3/1
Exeter 15/2
Montpellier 8/1
Munster, Racing 12/1
Toulon 16/1
....
Ulster 150/1

I think Saracens are the best placed to win it but it's quite open. 15/8 for Leinster are ridiculous odds.

Why? Leinster have the strongest squad in Europe and given the group they're in, are likely to get home advantage throughout.

Buer

troyzer wrote: »

Why? Leinster have the strongest squad in Europe and given the group they're in, are likely to get home advantage throughout.

There's very little between Leinster and Saracens. With Billy V back, they're a better team too. Saracens without him is like Leinster without Sexton.

Their pool is also a complete doddle. They should really be aiming for six wins and top seed. I wouldn't say there's anything between Leinster and Saracens in a neutral venue if both have full teams.

troyzer

troyzer wrote: »

Why? Leinster have the strongest squad in Europe and given the group they're in, are likely to get home advantage throughout.

On top of which they beat the previous winners of every major European competition on the way to the title last season (including the previous winners) and then went and beat two of the semi finalists on the way to the pro14 title.

You can't deliver a perfect season like that against so many quality teams without having machine like consistency and that's what Leo and Stuart have managed to deliver with this group of players.

It's going to be very hard to stop Leinster, but the great thing about rugby is that on a given day there are plenty of teams that can do it.

Burkie1203

[Deleted User] wrote: »

On top of which they beat the previous winners of every major European competition on the way to the title last season (including the previous winners) and then went and beat two of the semi finalists on the way to the pro14 title.

You can't deliver a perfect season like that against so many quality teams without having machine like consistency and that's what Leo and Stuart have managed to deliver with this group of players.

It's going to be very hard to stop Leinster, but the great thing about rugby is that on a given day there are plenty of teams that can do it.

More importantly, have you checked in on Joey in the high performance showers in Munster to see if he is remembering his lines.....

Boscoirl

First time in years that I have had all the games at home on TV. That’s my weekend sorted

Dilemma of the weekend watch Ulster V Leicester or Scarlets v Racing.

sydthebeat

Boscoirl wrote: »

First time in years that I have had all the games at home on TV. That’s my weekend sorted

Dilemma of the weekend watch Ulster V Leicester or Scarlets v Racing.

no question which game will be the better quality .....

thomond2006

Toulon at 16/1 is based on reputation. They are tied with Agen at second bottom in the Top14. While there are still some foreign stars there (Webb, Fekitoa and Savea come to mind), they are in a rebuilding phase with a lot of young/French players. I can't see them threatening this season.

Tigerandahalf

Scarlets Racing should be a cracker. Scarlets have struggled a bit this year and their backrow is weaker with departures and injuries. Racing might run them close.

Great to have all the games on one platform. I presume BT will still show games broadcasted by c4.

Cookiemunster

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Scarlets Racing should be a cracker. Scarlets have struggled a bit this year and their backrow is weaker with departures and injuries. Racing might run them close.

Great to have all the games on one platform. I presume BT will still show games broadcasted by c4.

Yeah all games are on BT, including the game that C4 and Virgin have.

thomond2006

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Yeah all games are on BT, including the game that C4 and Virgin have.

Fantastic, since I have Eir Sports via the broadband and Virgin is not in HD on Saorview.

Heymans

Glasgow Saracens should be a cracker on Sunday.

I have to say I do think Sarries will go on a run this year and will be in contention.

sydthebeat

i havent seen any superbru predictor for boards.ie

is there one?

Was thinking about a fantasy pool alright - happy to take part if anyone wants to set up a thread.

sydthebeat

alright, i created a predictor game on superbru:

Join boards.ie, my European Rugby Champions Cup league on @Superbru! You can find my pool here:

https://www.superbru.com/erchampionscup/pool.php?p=11946090

or by downloading the Superbru app and searching for the pool with code:

jiltlure

ive invited as many as i could through my usual super rugby pools, but there are loads that do the pro14 one that i dont have access too...
so anyone who has created pools invite away !
and of course always welcome to new players

errlloyd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Was thinking about a fantasy pool alright - happy to take part if anyone wants to set up a thread.

I set up an official fantasy team. The prizes are great and hardly anyone plays it.

The Lost Sheep

sydthebeat wrote: »

alright, i created a predictor game on superbru:

Join boards.ie, my European Rugby Champions Cup league on @Superbru! You can find my pool here:

https://www.superbru.com/erchampionscup/pool.php?p=11946090

or by downloading the Superbru app and searching for the pool with code:

jiltlure

ive invited as many as i could through my usual super rugby pools, but there are loads that do the pro14 one that i dont have access too...
so anyone who has created pools invite away !
and of course always welcome to new players

There is a boards.ie club/group on superbru and a pool through that club as well with invites sent to all 70+ in club already.
pugstuba is code

sydthebeat

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

There is a boards.ie club/group on superbru and a pool through that club as well with invites sent to all 70+ in club already.
pugstuba is code

There was no pool when i searched for "boards" earlier today so i set one up...


i see theres 2 now, another set up this morning as well

Buer

Lewis Ludlow cops a 4 week ban for stamping so will miss Gloucester's trip to Thomond.

I'll need to brush up on the letter of the law to see how on earth he managed to get away with only 4 weeks. He made DRM's stamp on VDF look like a tickle. Nasty stamp and should be looking at 8-10 weeks.

https://twitter.com/Smallclone/status/1050338418708885507

Squidgy Black

Buer wrote: »

Lewis Ludlow cops a 4 week ban for stamping so will miss Gloucester's trip to Thomond.

I'll need to brush up on the letter of the law to see how on earth he managed to get away with only 4 weeks. He made DRM's stamp on VDF look like a tickle. Nasty stamp and should be looking at 8-10 weeks.

Am I the only person who thinks the whole deal of getting sentences reduced because of "previous records" should be excluded for incidents like this?

Ludlow didn't accept the charge, and also didn't have a clean record (granted it was 4 years since his last citing) but still had it reduced by two weeks.

Neil3030

Buer wrote: »

Lewis Ludlow cops a 4 week ban for stamping so will miss Gloucester's trip to Thomond.

I'll need to brush up on the letter of the law to see how on earth he managed to get away with only 4 weeks. He made DRM's stamp on VDF look like a tickle. Nasty stamp and should be looking at 8-10 weeks.

https://twitter.com/Smallclone/status/1050338418708885507

Looking at that GIF you could say he was clearing out the player, trying to drive from the legs, and was careless with his foot placement, rather than an intentional stamp.

stephen_n

Neil3030 wrote: »

Looking at that GIF you could say he was clearing out the player, trying to drive from the legs, and was careless with his foot placement, rather than an intentional stamp.

Yeah it didn’t look to me like he was attempting to hit him, just got him by accident. Very different to the one on VDF IMO.

Eod100

Neil3030 wrote: »

Looking at that GIF you could say he was clearing out the player, trying to drive from the legs, and was careless with his foot placement, rather than an intentional stamp.

Do rules differentiate between intent and reckless say? Or does it come in in terms of mitigation?

Buer

Neil3030 wrote: »

Looking at that GIF you could say he was clearing out the player, trying to drive from the legs, and was careless with his foot placement, rather than an intentional stamp.

I can only imagine that was the interpretation of it although I'm not convinced. His movement appears somewhat more aggressive than looking to get a foot placement, to my eyes. He was acting the maggot throughout. Ludlow was the guy who pinned Hughes on the ground too, resulting in the punch later on.

I think he's fortunate to be given the benefit of the doubt and allowed any mitigation, to be honest. It was reckless in the extreme.

Podge_irl

DRM's stamp looked a lot worse to me, especially in its brazenness and clear intent

irishbucsfan

Eod100 wrote: »

Do rules differentiate between intent and reckless say? Or does it come in in terms of mitigation?

Yes, intent is considered when determining the level of sanction.

prawnsambo

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Yes, intent is considered when determining the level of sanction.

Is intent considered in the laws? I was sure it only appeared in disciplinary hearings.

irishbucsfan

prawnsambo wrote: »

Is intent considered in the laws? I was sure it only appeared in disciplinary hearings.

The guidelines that govern hearings, yes.