Longshot Value Aintree and Punchestown

James Bond Junior

That was the most insane end of a race I've ever seen!? Jaw is still on the floor.

longshotvalue

Punchestown 6:40
There is a fair few cliff horses of mine in this race but Viconte Du Noyer stands out here as the value on his 2nd last year I the same race with a very similar looking preparation. He finished his race well last year of a higher mark and surly he’ll go close enough again this year. There stable is back in form and 25/1 is certainly value.
1 Point EW 25/1 4 places 365, 20/1 5 places Paddy & sky
Punchestown 5:30
This doesn’t look a deep race and is full of horses that might struggle after their last runs. However although I’m going for another probably disappointing horse in general he is at least priced to make the risk worthwhile. There isn’t a hell of a lot between Alpha Des Obeaux and a lot of these behind the favorite, and I think he travelled like he was getting back to form last time in the National, before he fell at the Chair. The form of him clonmel oil win this year and his second to Total Recall earlier this year puts him in the frame here and he may well be more of a 25/1 shot than the 50/1 available.
1 Point EW 50/1 Paddy/Betfair

Nothingbutbets

Alpha Des Obeaux is a NR

longshotvalue

Nothingbutbets wrote: »

Alpha Des Obeaux is a NR

Feck thats the 3rd out of 5 sections NR. Probably just as well. Cant see the value in that race now.

James Bond Junior

Did anybody else not get a refund on alpha with PP?

longshotvalue

Punchestown 5:30

Samcro’s form simply doesn’t really stand up to any great degree. This first horse he beat to win a race afterwards was Black Ops just about winning a sub-standard Grade 1 at Aintree. No real explanation is needed here as Melon is just too big for what he has done already. The Champion Hurdle could hardly have worked out any better and 10/3 is far too big. I’m going to add in a 1 pt place lay on Samcro as well as it follows that he is far too short. Don’t get me wrong he may well be a very likely winner, its just the odds are wrong by a huge margin on known form

3 Points win Melon 10/3 betfair/paddy and others

1 Point Lay Liability at 1.12 -1.15 Betfair.

longshotvalue

4:20 Punch
Ask Nile, has a fair bit of form that would suggest he is capable of getting involved here at a huge price. He ran better than his finishing position indicates last time out after a break and has a big turnaround in weights with the winner. 33/1 with 5 places looks a bit of value
1 Point EW 33/1 6 place's Sky 5 places paddy/betfair/boyles and others

longshotvalue

Last Minute Selection:
Punch 6:40
On The Fringe has been gradually improving and this longer trip on soft ground will suit 16/1 is value
1 Point win 16/1 betfair/Paddy/Exchanges

longshotvalue

Sandown 3:35
I can’t split the 2 Tizzard runners Theatre Guide and Royal Vacation here. They have both had light a season, with a fair amount of disappointment, but I’m guessing that today’s race may well be the target for both. The stable is in fine form and it looks reasonable to me that both will get involved here at huge prices.
1 Point EW 33/1 365 5 places ¼ Theatre Guide and Royal Vacation

longshotvalue

Punchestown 5:35
Abbyssial wasn't put into the race at all last time out and I just get the feeling he will run a lot better today. He has plenty of class and ran well after a very long break first time out this year. This is a pure gut feeling selection at 50/1
1 Point EW 50/1 6 places Paddy

longshotvalue

Punchestown 3:50
Apples Jade looks a near certain winner here, so I’m going with one at a big price in the without market. Asthuria looks significantly underestimated here. She has run well here before and wasn’t far behind Benie Des Dieux when they met over fences. She has run already this week but that was a very good run behind Footpad and it seems to me that she is in very good form. If she can run to form again in a week she won’t be too far away here at 33/1 w/o the fav is a huge price.
2 Points EW 33/1 w/o FAV paddy 25/1 w/o fav generally.

longshotvalue

3:10 Punchestown
Last year's race looked much stronger than this renewal and Heron Heights was a very good 3rd of 2lbs higher. He has had just 1 run this year when midfield around Leopardstown and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the plan and he will improve significantly. 25/1 is certainly value
1 Point EW 25/1 4 places Paddy

tinpib

Asthuria a non runner now, that's a shame. DEeided to go with Let's Dance without Apple Jade and Benie des Deaux at 9/2

tinpib

Brilliant stuff Aidan. Heron Heights supported into 16/1 and won well.

Nulty

I bet you would have been sick to see Rogue Angel beat Heron Heights....I know I would. Nice pick

Bozo Skeleton

aidankkk wrote: »

3:10 Punchestown
Last year's race looked much stronger than this renewal and Heron Heights was a very good 3rd of 2lbs higher. He has had just 1 run this year when midfield around Leopardstown and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the plan and he will improve significantly. 25/1 is certainly value
1 Point EW 25/1 4 places Paddy

Lovely. Brilliant stuff again Aidan!

The Jman

Jesus I'd love to ride Aidan at times!!

FLOOPER

Brilliant stiff aris Aidan. Saved my week.

Thank you.

Sultan of Bling

Nulty wrote:

I bet you would have been sick to see Rogue Angel beat Heron Heights....I know I would. Nice pick

Was thinking the same. I think aidan tipped him at Aintree. Would have been a tasty forecast.

Great picking

carq

Nice one aidan!
Saved the week, was having a horrible few days punting.

Got 18/1 minus the rule 4 deduction

Cherry_Cola

Thanks Aidan. Now do I cash out on my two doubles or not? Eek!

circadian

Aidan you glorious bastard you.

aidankkk

aidankkk wrote: »

3:10 Punchestown
Last year's race looked much stronger than this renewal and Heron Heights was a very good 3rd of 2lbs higher. He has had just 1 run this year when midfield around Leopardstown and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the plan and he will improve significantly. 25/1 is certainly value
1 Point EW 25/1 4 places Paddy

Fantastic stuff. Well done, and many thanks.