Longshot Value Aintree and Punchestown

longshotvalue

Usual thing.

Just noticed that They have Brain Power Priced up as fav against Petit Mouchir. This will be a load up the wheelbarrow job if it stays like that. He beat him in Cheltenham only because of the way the race was run. Id have him long odds on against Brain Power. Fingers crossed they both get declared and the prices stay the same.

madmoose

I guess they will both run over 2miles on the saturday now wont they and not the opener on Thursday now Footpad is out and he was due for the 2miler. PM fav for the 2m one.

longshotvalue

madmoose wrote: »

I guess they will both run over 2miles on the saturday now wont they and not the opener on Thursday now Footpad is out and he was due for the 2miler. PM fav for the 2m one.

Ha must have been asleep . Had to be a catch .

madmoose

Vision des flos a big price in the 2mile hurdle on the friday 10/1, back in trip after a great run for a long way in the Neptune. I think he will go off 9/2 or less, id take Global citizen on at 2/1 atm.

kfallon

Danny Kirwan in the bumper on Saturday

Slattsy

kfallon wrote: »

Danny Kirwan in the bumper on Saturday

Who is he on?

Slattsy

madmoose wrote: »

Vision des flos a big price in the 2mile hurdle on the friday 10/1, back in trip after a great run for a long way in the Neptune. I think he will go off 9/2 or less, id take Global citizen on at 2/1 atm.

Agree 100%
All over this and probably worth a good e/w bet

kfallon

Slattsy wrote: »

Who is he on?

He'll be hard on the bridle 1f out

Johner

My Tent Or Yours at 6's in the Aintree hurdle. Supasundae is far too short. I'm interested in the horses that have missed Cheltenham.

kfallon

Johner wrote: »

My Tent Or Yours at 6's in the Aintree hurdle. Supasundae is far too short. I'm interested in the horses that have missed Cheltenham.

Not worried about the ground?

Johner

kfallon wrote: »

Not worried about the ground?

Not really unless a lot of rain comes. Which I suppose is possible but unless it's heavy ground I think he will be fine.

handsfree2

madmoose wrote: »

Vision des flos a big price in the 2mile hurdle on the friday 10/1, back in trip after a great run for a long way in the Neptune. I think he will go off 9/2 or less, id take Global citizen on at 2/1 atm.

The other one that could be of interest is impact factor. He has solid form against some good horses. This grade 1 has a grade 2 feel and at that standard he's a good ew chance.

handsfree2

I also think that a flat track would be right up black cordons street. I think he's a big price at 13/2.

danganabu

Johner wrote: »

I'm interested in the horses that have missed Cheltenham.

Any reason for the Cheltenham angle?

Johner

danganabu wrote: »

Any reason for the Cheltenham angle?

I know its been nearly a month but say in the Juvenile I'd much rather back something like We Have A Dream who is going there fresh. The likes of Apple Shakira had a tough race in bad ground.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/grand-national-festival/seven-cheltenham-absentees-who-could-shine-at-aintree/326744

danganabu

Johner wrote: »

I know its been nearly a month but say in the Juvenile I'd much rather back something like We Have A Dream who is going there fresh. The likes of Apple Shakira had a tough race in bad ground.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/grand-national-festival/seven-cheltenham-absentees-who-could-shine-at-aintree/326744

I'm a stats man myself and it may suprise you, it certainly suprised me when I looked at it but 63% of Aintree festival winners over the last 10 years had their last run at the festival and thats from just 36% of the runners.

My natural inclination would have been the same as yourself but the figures say otherwise.

BumperD

Festival form is generally bomb proof. 1-2 home at the festival are the ones I focus on

Slattsy

BumperD wrote: »

Festival form is generally bomb proof. 1-2 home at the festival are the ones I focus on

Bit more of a slog this year though and Aintree ground potentially softer than other years. Avoiding Cheltenham horses could be a good angle into races.

RivetingRoger

Funnily I think the opposite re festival form
In recent years we have seen Vautour beaten by Gods Own over 2m (ok not his distance) and Yorkhill beaten off the back of an imperious festival performance
When an also ran like Gods Own beats one of the classiest chasers in a lifetime like vautour, u know the festival left its mark

Fairyhouse also showed that horses who hadn't run at the festival or those who hadn't ran hard were a step ahead

I love UDS, but I wont touch it at Punchestown
Similarly, I couldnt back Might Bite tomorrow. That GC must have absolutely destroyed him.

At the end of the day, these are animals, not machines.

madmoose

Vautour fell that day at Aintree though Roger, i’m sure he would have won if stood up.

Johner

Slattsy wrote: »

Bit more of a slog this year though and Aintree ground potentially softer than other years. Avoiding Cheltenham horses could be a good angle into races.

Yeah I usually wouldn't avoid Cheltenham horses but I just think this year might be different because of how testing it was.

Mr321

Slattsy wrote: »

Bit more of a slog this year though and Aintree ground potentially softer than other years. Avoiding Cheltenham horses could be a good angle into races.

Agree here totally. Fairyhouse was proof enough of that and were only a week on from it. Aintree is looking heavy also even though I seen Good to Soft, soft in places.
Won't be long changing the going after a race or 2 tomorrow.
At most the runners of the first day of the festival might be OK but I'd be happy to look elsewhere .

danganabu

Mr321 wrote: »

Agree here totally. Fairyhouse was proof enough of that and were only a week on from it. Aintree is looking heavy also even though I seen Good to Soft, soft in places.
Won't be long changing the going after a race or 2 tomorrow.
At most the runners of the first day of the festival might be OK but I'd be happy to look elsewhere .

Was it? Withour going through the full results I thought there were a good few winners that came from Cheltenham - off the top of my head Getabird, UDS, Laurina and probably a few others that escape me.

RivetingRoger

madmoose wrote: »

Vautour fell that day at Aintree though Roger, i’m sure he would have won if stood up.

No Punchestown Moose, about 2 weeks later!
He fell at Aintree when looking like he was gonna piss all over them, as WPM was trying to win the british trainers, then he ran in Ptown over the shorter distance 2m and was beaten by Gods Own! Gods Own like....

Cheltenham took its toll that day, I expect it will again this week and at Punchestown

RivetingRoger

My Tent 9/2 in the hurdle is a GREAT bet tomorrow
Fresh as a daisy compared to Supasundae etc
All over that

Will back might bite even tho I said I wouldn't, but only cos nothing in that race beats it, ever.....
Definitely Red for the forecast

Mr321

danganabu wrote: »

Was it? Withour going through the full results I thought there were a good few winners that came from Cheltenham - off the top of my head Getabird, UDS, Laurina and probably a few others that escape me.

Al Boomn was the only other but also but was a faller at Cheltenham, Getabird finished 9th. Laurina and UDS only had themselves to beat in their races at Fhouse at unbackable odds? (All 4 ran the first 2 days)
Any other year id be definitely looking at the Cheltenham 1-3 home but think with the conditions this year it will have taken a lot more out of them.

RivetingRoger

Also, UDS was losing that race if both stood up

danganabu

Mr321 wrote: »

Al Boomn was the only other but also but was a faller at Cheltenham, Getabird finished 9th. Laurina and UDS only had themselves to beat in their races at Fhouse at unbackable odds? (All 4 ran the first 2 days)
Any other year id be definitely looking at the Cheltenham 1-3 home but think with the conditions this year it will have taken a lot more out of them.

Yeah its certainly something to consider given the ground at the festival, but I dont think I would ever take a blanket approach of dismissing everything that ran in Cheltenham or on the other side blindly backing everything with festival form, take each race on its own merits but also just remember and ask hte question, why didnt the horse go to Cheltenham.

As it goes my fancy of the week for Aintree ran in Cheltenham and is currently a massive price for Aintree, undfortunately he currently holds three entries but as soon as his target is confirmed its a wheelbarrow job for me!

danganabu

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Also, UDS was losing that race if both stood up

You must give me a loan of that crystal ball must come in very handy for the in running betting Absolutely no way of telling how it woul dhave panned out, the faller looked to be travelling powerfully but Townend hadnt asked UDS for an effort at that stage and he is a horse that well find plenty when pressed.

longshotvalue

Aintree Day 1
2:20
If we can forgive Les Arceaux his poor run last time out at Gowran, his first 2 runs over hurdles make interesting reading. He was a close 2nd to Sayo (3rd in the Triumph) and also a close second to Veneer of Charm (Fred Winter Winner). He obviously has a fair bit to find here but 40/1 is simple to big to ignore when the Irish form is so much better than uk 4 yo form.
1 Point EW 40/1 Paddy/Betfair
2:50
If Sub Lieutenant does improve form his run at Cheltenham, where he was back after a 3 month break he could get involved here. The Fav will be near impossible to beat here but I think some of the other horses are overrated. HE ran well enough here in the Melling last year and I just wouldn’t be surprises if he ran well above his price here.
1 Point EW 40/1 Betfair Paddy
4:05
Bears Affair was a bit of an eye catcher in last year’s race and looks to have been kept for another go at this judging by his light season so far. He should be suited by this being a bigger test of stamina this year and given that this race is certainly not as strong as last year 25/1 with 4 places looks great value.
2 Points ew 4 place’s Lads 25/1 22/1 4 places paddy and others
4:40
On the face of it, 12 years old is too old for a 2 mile handicap chase such as this one but older horses have a surprisingly good record in these top 2 miles handicaps. I’m going to give old favorite Savello a small chance at an outrageous price. He traveled well enough until a mistake last time out and has been given a huge chance by the handicapper here if he is able to recover any form. It’s a long time to keep him in training with a top trainer at this age after he was of the course for near 14 months.
1 Point EW 50/1 paddy/betfair/lads

James Bond Junior

50c ew accum on all four for the craic. €989,858 potential return. Come on Aidan, we know you can do it.....

djPSB

Would give Sizing Codelco an e/w squeak at 100/1. Winner at Aintree last year.

deiseman17

I think Finians Oscar has a bit to prove in the Novices' chase and think he will go very close today.

Mc Love

My ew picks

2:20 Et Moi Alors ew
4:05 Bear's Affair
5:15 Buildmeupbuttercup

finglashoop

Renes girl
Tea for two
MTOY
Wells de lune
Gino trail

circadian

finglashoop wrote: »

Renes girl
Tea for two
MTOY
Wells de lune
Gino trail

Good start for you. Lost out by picking modus myself. Alas!

Gavin "shels"

Created a new Aintree Day 1 gents - let Aidan have his thread back

Widdensushi

Well done with bears affair, it looked like he might have it for a little while but a clear second

longshotvalue

Bears affair got us out of jail today after a payout on a last place lucky 15 would have been huge.


4:05
Clarcam is a horse I always thought had a big handicap in him. He seemed to love jumping the fences last year and I think the softer ground this year will really suit him. Last year’s race came at the end of a very long season and he is one of the freshest horses in the field this year with only 2 runs. He also has run well here a few times in the past. For and Elliot trained Russell Ridden horse with some course form 40/1 seems very big.
2 Points EW 6 places lads 40/1 33/1 6 places paddy/sky/coral
Rogue Angel really loved the national test last year and lead for a lot of the way, until he got tired late on. He is certainly on a workable mark here and is on his 3rd run after a 3 month break. If I had him after watching last year’s national I’d have to target him at another race over those fences. I’m going to gamble that today is the plan. The soft ground 2m5 might be a bit shorted than ideal but the soft ground will certainly be in his favour. If he gets near the front and jumps as well as he did last year he’ll be in the first 6 here.
1 Point EW 33/1 6 places paddy/boyles 28/1 6 places sky/lads/coral

longshotvalue

1:45
Project Bluebook is a horse I’ve been keeping an eye on. He was a very good 6th in the Galway Hurdle this year and that race is about as competitive as its gets. He did get bogged down in the Betfair hurdle this year as well, but has looked as if a step up in trip would be an advantage to him. He is on a very nice mark here and I think he is worth a shot at 28/1
1 Point EW 28/1 5 places paddy

Cherry_Cola

aidankkk wrote: »

1:45
Project Bluebook is a horse I’ve been keeping an eye on. He was a very good 6th in the Galway Hurdle this year and that race is about as competitive as its gets. He did get bogged down in the Betfair hurdle this year as well, but has looked as if a step up in trip would be an advantage to him. He is on a very nice mark here and I think he is worth a shot at 28/1
1 Point EW 28/1 5 places paddy

Good call, a good 6th again unfortunately!

prettyboy81

aidankkk wrote: »

1:45
Project Bluebook is a horse I’ve been keeping an eye on. He was a very good 6th in the Galway Hurdle this year and that race is about as competitive as its gets. He did get bogged down in the Betfair hurdle this year as well, but has looked as if a step up in trip would be an advantage to him. He is on a very nice mark here and I think he is worth a shot at 28/1
1 Point EW 28/1 5 places paddy

Crossbar with that one 6th

longshotvalue

prettyboy81 wrote: »

Crossbar with that one 6th

That's the way it goes. Funny looking ride once win chance was gone all the same. Might give him a spin again at punchestown.

prettyboy81

aidankkk wrote: »

That's the way it goes. Funny looking ride once win chance was gone all the same. Might give him a spin again at punchestown.

Totally agree didn't seem over keen to win some place money in those silks.

4068ac1elhodqr

Sky paid 6places 1/5 in the 1.45 for Project Bluebook (@29) but with R4, always worth whoring around for that additional place.

longshotvalue

Frida Fat Banking wrote: »

Sky paid 6places 1/5 in the 1.45 for Project Bluebook (@29) but with R4, always worth whoring around for that additional place.

I do whore around but unfortunately they were the only ones doing it so i wont put if up if its not available with a few bookies.

prettyboy81

Clarcam get 6th?

longshotvalue

prettyboy81 wrote: »

Clarcam get 6th?

i Think we got nutted for 6th :-((

4068ac1elhodqr

Yes, Clarcam 6th.

Mc Love

Ohhhh

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

i Think we got nutted for 6th :-((

Scratch that got paid ;-))