Longshot Value Aintree and Punchestown

djPSB

Would give Sizing Codelco an e/w squeak at 100/1. Winner at Aintree last year.

deiseman17

I think Finians Oscar has a bit to prove in the Novices' chase and think he will go very close today.

Mc Love

My ew picks

2:20 Et Moi Alors ew
4:05 Bear's Affair
5:15 Buildmeupbuttercup

finglashoop

Renes girl
Tea for two
MTOY
Wells de lune
Gino trail

circadian

finglashoop wrote: »

Renes girl
Tea for two
MTOY
Wells de lune
Gino trail

Good start for you. Lost out by picking modus myself. Alas!

Gavin "shels"

Created a new Aintree Day 1 gents - let Aidan have his thread back

Widdensushi

Well done with bears affair, it looked like he might have it for a little while but a clear second

longshotvalue

Bears affair got us out of jail today after a payout on a last place lucky 15 would have been huge.


4:05
Clarcam is a horse I always thought had a big handicap in him. He seemed to love jumping the fences last year and I think the softer ground this year will really suit him. Last year’s race came at the end of a very long season and he is one of the freshest horses in the field this year with only 2 runs. He also has run well here a few times in the past. For and Elliot trained Russell Ridden horse with some course form 40/1 seems very big.
2 Points EW 6 places lads 40/1 33/1 6 places paddy/sky/coral
Rogue Angel really loved the national test last year and lead for a lot of the way, until he got tired late on. He is certainly on a workable mark here and is on his 3rd run after a 3 month break. If I had him after watching last year’s national I’d have to target him at another race over those fences. I’m going to gamble that today is the plan. The soft ground 2m5 might be a bit shorted than ideal but the soft ground will certainly be in his favour. If he gets near the front and jumps as well as he did last year he’ll be in the first 6 here.
1 Point EW 33/1 6 places paddy/boyles 28/1 6 places sky/lads/coral

longshotvalue

1:45
Project Bluebook is a horse I’ve been keeping an eye on. He was a very good 6th in the Galway Hurdle this year and that race is about as competitive as its gets. He did get bogged down in the Betfair hurdle this year as well, but has looked as if a step up in trip would be an advantage to him. He is on a very nice mark here and I think he is worth a shot at 28/1
1 Point EW 28/1 5 places paddy

Cherry_Cola

aidankkk wrote: »

1:45
Project Bluebook is a horse I’ve been keeping an eye on. He was a very good 6th in the Galway Hurdle this year and that race is about as competitive as its gets. He did get bogged down in the Betfair hurdle this year as well, but has looked as if a step up in trip would be an advantage to him. He is on a very nice mark here and I think he is worth a shot at 28/1
1 Point EW 28/1 5 places paddy

Good call, a good 6th again unfortunately!

prettyboy81

aidankkk wrote: »

1:45
Project Bluebook is a horse I’ve been keeping an eye on. He was a very good 6th in the Galway Hurdle this year and that race is about as competitive as its gets. He did get bogged down in the Betfair hurdle this year as well, but has looked as if a step up in trip would be an advantage to him. He is on a very nice mark here and I think he is worth a shot at 28/1
1 Point EW 28/1 5 places paddy

Crossbar with that one 6th

longshotvalue

prettyboy81 wrote: »

Crossbar with that one 6th

That's the way it goes. Funny looking ride once win chance was gone all the same. Might give him a spin again at punchestown.

prettyboy81

aidankkk wrote: »

That's the way it goes. Funny looking ride once win chance was gone all the same. Might give him a spin again at punchestown.

Totally agree didn't seem over keen to win some place money in those silks.

4068ac1elhodqr

Sky paid 6places 1/5 in the 1.45 for Project Bluebook (@29) but with R4, always worth whoring around for that additional place.

longshotvalue

Frida Fat Banking wrote: »

Sky paid 6places 1/5 in the 1.45 for Project Bluebook (@29) but with R4, always worth whoring around for that additional place.

I do whore around but unfortunately they were the only ones doing it so i wont put if up if its not available with a few bookies.

prettyboy81

Clarcam get 6th?

longshotvalue

prettyboy81 wrote: »

Clarcam get 6th?

i Think we got nutted for 6th :-((

4068ac1elhodqr

Yes, Clarcam 6th.

Mc Love

Ohhhh

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

i Think we got nutted for 6th :-((

Scratch that got paid ;-))

hots

Nice one, cheers Aidan.

Widdensushi

The four pointers return on both days, well done

longshotvalue

Widdensushi wrote: »

The four pointers return on both days, well done

There is definitely a lesson in that.

longshotvalue

Grand National
Waiting for the bet365 offer has cost me on my main selection. Houblon Des Obeaux was a fair bit better than his 10th place finish last year having finished well to pass lot of horses after getting outpaced. He is unlikely to get outpaced as much here on the soft ground. He has a fair few good runs this year and if he gets around hell be finishing better than anything. Bet365 has 40/1 5 places and 33/1 6 places. I think with him it’s important to get the extra place, especially as the place part is free which essentially means it’s double the odds which makes him 66/1 with 6 places ¼ the odds and that is a cracking bet
2.5 Points EW 33/1 ¼ 6 place Bet365. 5 Points 2.5 returned

longshotvalue

Carlingford Lough is my second selection, he is a strong stayer and certainly goes on the ground, has enough class to get involved here at a huge price. He has had a light season but looks to retain a fair bit of ability when close enough in a very strong John Durkan earlier this year over a trip a long way short of his best. The way he runs his races could be well suited to this test and at 50/1 with the bet365 offer which makes him effectively 100/1 he looks great value.
2 Points EW 50/1 5 places 365 offer costing 2 points

akelly02

aidankkk wrote: »

Carlingford Lough is my second selection, he is a strong stayer and certainly goes on the ground, has enough class to get involved here at a huge price. He has had a light season but looks to retain a fair bit of ability when close enough in a very strong John Durkan earlier this year over a trip a long way short of his best. The way he runs his races could be well suited to this test and at 50/1 with the bet365 offer which makes him effectively 100/1 he looks great value.
2 Points EW 50/1 5 places 365 offer costing 2 points

Certainly goes on the ground? Not as far as his record or his trainer says, but best of luck either way

longshotvalue

Alpha Des Obeaux, has been good this year and has plenty of class for a race like this. He has run well above this mark a few times this year in grade 1s and given that he is over a stone better off with Total Recall for their limerick meeting I think he can get involved here at the price I was looking for. He has had a nice break to prepare for this and usually runs well of a break. 40/1 5 places with 365 is a great price given it’s really 80/1
2 Points EW 40/1 5 places 365 costing 2 points

00benski

aidankkk wrote: »

Alpha Des Obeaux, has been good this year and has plenty of class for a race like this. He has run well above this mark a few times this year in grade 1s and given that he is over a stone better off with Total Recall for their limerick meeting I think he can get involved here at the price I was looking for. He has had a nice break to prepare for this and usually runs well of a break. 40/1 5 places with 365 is a great price given it’s really 80/1
2 Points EW 40/1 5 places 365 costing 2 points

Hey Aidan. What's that offer on 365 your speking of, is it a sign up bonus or how do you claim it?
Cheers
Ben

irish_major

I love following your threads Aidan, you're some man to pick them!
I'm going to do the thing I hate most though and bash you, there's no way, for tipping/staking purposes you can include some free bet offer that bet365 are doing.

The Jman

irish_major wrote:

I love following your threads Aidan, you're some man to pick them! I'm going to do the thing I hate most though and bash you, there's no way, for tipping/staking purposes you can include some free bet offer that bet365 are doing.

Surely staking is all about taking advantage of bookies offers?? This offer is one of the best racing offers you'll see all year!