Longshot Value Aintree and Punchestown

longshotvalue

irish_major wrote: »

I love following your threads Aidan, you're some man to pick them!
I'm going to do the thing I hate most though and bash you, there's no way, for tipping/staking purposes you can include some free bet offer that bet365 are doing.

This is s long standing free place bet offer with the biggest online bookie in the market . I'll include it because I think 90% of people can use it. If you don't have it I would suggest reducing stakes to half the points I have included and get the best price and also only back 2 of the 4 selections. . Also everyone knows it's coming and it's easy to both use and take advantage of .

I find it a good experiment every year to see if I can profit with the max use of this .

longshotvalue

Plus in fairness I only post prices where mostly 3 bookies have best price for the rest of the year . Unlike 95% of other people tipping horses .

Graham1978

Paul Jacobs is reading your tips Aidan

Francie Barrett

Very surprised you didn't have a dig on Identity Thief in the stayers hurdle race Aidan. 20/1 with only 1/4 the odds e/w with Bet365 is a cracking bet in my opinion.

longshotvalue

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Very surprised you didn't have a dig on Identity Thief in the stayers hurdle race Aidan. 20/1 with only 1/4 the odds e/w with Bet365 is a cracking bet in my opinion.

Its not to late, i didn't looks at the orthe races at all yet.

longshotvalue

I’m hard pressed to narrow down for my last selection betweenas few and I’ve decided to go with my initial selection Saint Are . When I watched a replay of the 2016 national he travelled and jumped well in the soft ground and got tired from being right up with the pace all the time. I think he will be ridden here with far more patience and can see him finishing well at a huge price. Ill also go for the extra place in his case


2 Points EW 50/1 6 Places Bet365 costing 2 points

longshotvalue

3:40
Clondaw Cian appeals here of a workable mark in soft ground . 22/1 is worth a small win bet .
1 point win 22/1 generally

longshotvalue

Fairyhouse 5:50
Abbyssial could easily come back to form here over the right trip. He looked decent after a long break from racing in the Redmills hurdle in gorwan, and that race could hardly have worked out better. He did bomb out on his second run back at Cheltenham where he was too keen and possibly bounced. We can easily give him another shout here at a huge price in a funny looking race where I don’t fancy many. If his 7lbs claimer can ride he will get competitive of his weight today. 33/1 looks huge
Points EW 5 places Paddy/Betfair/Sky

longshotvalue

Newmarket 5:55
Move in time shouldn't be far away here and i wasn't expecting to be a decent price after his last eye-catching run. He can perform of this mark
1 Point win 12/1 hills/betfair/paddy

longshotvalue

Cheltenham 2:40
I spent a fair bit of the build up to Cheltenham assuming Traffic Fluide would win a handicap and it didn’t work out. Fear of missing out is necessitating a bet here. He has been reduced again in mark and on better ground he should be able to stay the trip here. He had a non-too impressive win in a novice hurdle since, but I’m hopeful that will have got him right for this.
2 Points win 14/1 365/hills 12/1 elsewhere

RivetingRoger

Deise des Bieffes / SFP double today

(oh, and 18 and 12 in the daily millions )

passremarkable

aidankkk wrote: »

Cheltenham 2:40
I spent a fair bit of the build up to Cheltenham assuming Traffic Fluide would win a handicap and it didn’t work out. Fear of missing out is necessitating a bet here. He has been reduced again in mark and on better ground he should be able to stay the trip here. He had a non-too impressive win in a novice hurdle since, but I’m hopeful that will have got him right for this.
2 Points win 14/1 365/hills 12/1 elsewhere

Well done Aidan

00benski

aidankkk wrote: »

Cheltenham 2:40
I spent a fair bit of the build up to Cheltenham assuming Traffic Fluide would win a handicap and it didn’t work out. Fear of missing out is necessitating a bet here. He has been reduced again in mark and on better ground he should be able to stay the trip here. He had a non-too impressive win in a novice hurdle since, but I’m hopeful that will have got him right for this.
2 Points win 14/1 365/hills 12/1 elsewhere

Genius again Aidan thanks ðŸ‘

The Mig

Hit 999/1 in running :eek:

Super picking Aidan

hurler97

What a finish! Thanks Aidan

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Cheltenham 2:40
I spent a fair bit of the build up to Cheltenham assuming Traffic Fluide would win a handicap and it didn’t work out. Fear of missing out is necessitating a bet here. He has been reduced again in mark and on better ground he should be able to stay the trip here. He had a non-too impressive win in a novice hurdle since, but I’m hopeful that will have got him right for this.
2 Points win 14/1 365/hills 12/1 elsewhere

Went to paddys to watch it and couldnt believe he got back up. I mean he was jumping so well, before the 2nd last i though he looked a certainty and he just downed tools. He had some amount in hand after that.

laguacamaya

Ridiculous. Docket had to be, oh so delicately, uncrumpled from my sweaty fingers...Tip of the hat (once again) to you young man.

longshotvalue

Cheltenham 3:15
Midnight Jazz looks to be underestimated here. She ran well in the Grade 1 mares hurdle and could be a few pounds well in here of a mark she was won of before. She looks a better horse on decent ground judging by her runs last year as well and I think she is around a 12/1 shot so the 20/1 on offer has to be taken.
1 Point win 20/1 365 22/1 sporting 18/1 various

gscully

aidankkk wrote: »

Cheltenham 3:15
Midnight Jazz looks to be underestimated here. She ran well in the Grade 1 mares hurdle and could be a few pounds well in here of a mark she was won of before. She looks a better horse on decent ground judging by her runs last year as well and I think she is around a 12/1 shot so the 20/1 on offer has to be taken.
1 Point win 20/1 365 22/1 sporting 18/1 various

Snipped

Bozo Skeleton

gscully wrote: »

Snipped

Currently 20-1 generally, with PP paying 5 places.

longshotvalue

Bozo Skeleton wrote: »

Currently 20-1 generally, with PP paying 5 places.

Gone 22/1. Probably go down the road myself for an ew bet on those terms..

longshotvalue

Ayr 4:05
I’ve had West Approach on my mind for this all week, and I just haven’t been able to talk myself out of it. He looks a much better horse last time out in the JLT with much better jumping, and he really should improve for a big step up in trip. He looked to be going flat out at Cheltenham and this should be more his style. There really isn’t a lot between him and the likes of Ballyoptic who is a far shorted price. The stable is really getting into form as well so it’s a lot of positives for a 40/1 shot.
2 Points EW 40/1 6 places paddy/sky
In addition Beware the Bear looks a near certainty to get placed if he gets around here and 25/1 with 6 places giving 5/1 to place is far too big. This trip should be exactly what he wants and he can perform of this mark.
2 Points EW 25/1 6 places paddy/lads/sky

longshotvalue

Newbury 3:45

Gabrials record in big field handicaps is remarkable really for a horse that is always underestimated . He was as good as ever in the Lincoln and at 33/1 with 5 places here he just had to be bet.

2 points ew 33/1 6 places sky 5 places generally .

I think it's worthwhile going for a small ew double on Gabriel and Beware the Bear due to their place chances being very good .

1 point ew double beware the bear & Gabriel

sdoc13

Ur a money making machine aidan. Thought he was going to win it when 1f out.

longshotvalue

Punchestown 5:30

Fairly easy pick here in a race I hope Douvan wins, Special Tiara was better than ever last year but hasn't been as good so far this year on soft ground in every run. He will definitely be better today with conditions in his favour. There is enough doubt about the top of the market here to make the 28/1 available about him look very big. I think he goes off at best 16/1 possibly shorter so we'll take the value now.

1 Point EW 28/1 paddy / betfair 25/1 boyles

Punchestown 4:55

We've missed the 33/1 but I'm not going to change my mind now. Housesofparliment will certainly appreciate the better ground and back here after a break he could well get involved. His form as a novice reads well for a horse of this mark and should the expected improvement come he won't be far away. He jumps well enough as well. I'm hoping he goes from the front here.

1 Point ew 25/1 6 places paddy/sky

longshotvalue

Punchestown 6:40

I've been saying all year that there isn't much between Monalee and Rathvinden and we've a bit unlucky with Rathvinden being brought down. I'm not going to change my mind here given on collateral form, his win in the 4 miler could well be better than Monalee's 2nd in the rsa. He should also be suited by the drop in trip and good ground. 11/1 is too big

1 Point win 11/1 Generally

clevtrev

aidankkk wrote: »

Punchestown 5:30

Fairly easy pick here in a race I hope Douvan wins, Special Tiara was better than ever last year but hasn't been as good so far this year on soft ground in every run. He will definitely be better today with conditions in his favour. There is enough doubt about the top of the market here to make the 28/1 available about him look very big. I think he goes off at best 16/1 possibly shorter so we'll take the value now.

1 Point EW 28/1 paddy / betfair 25/1 boyles

Punchestown 4:55

We've missed the 33/1 but I'm not going to change my mind now. Housesofparliment will certainly appreciate the better ground and back here after a break he could well get involved. His form as a novice reads well for a horse of this mark and should the expected improvement come he won't be far away. He jumps well enough as well. I'm hoping he goes from the front here.

1 Point ew 25/1 6 places paddy/sky

Housesofparliament is a NR now

FatRat

aidankkk wrote: »

Punchestown 6:40

I've been saying all year that there isn't much between Monalee and Rathvinden and we've a bit unlucky with Rathvinden being brought down. I'm not going to change my mind here given on collateral form, his win in the 4 miler could well be better than Monalee's 2nd in the rsa. He should also be suited by the drop in trip and good ground. 11/1 is too big

1 Point win 11/1 Generally

Love seeing this. His win against Ms. Parfois is not to be ignored after Ms Parfois game effort ahead of Elegant Escape and Black Corton when close behind Terrefort. Granted Terrefort lost to Shattered Love at Chelt, I think he needed the step up in trip and a bit more experience to show his true ability. Rathvinden is my pick of the day.

Daraa

Special Tiara is out as well

longshotvalue

Daraa wrote: »

Special Tiara is out as well

Probably just as well as the ground is gone softer and neither would stand a chance on soft ground.