The League is over - Who is going to be in the Super 8s?

Flukey

I won't restrict you to 8, so who will be there are thereabouts? There are the obvious ones: Dublin, Kerry, Mayo and Tyrone. You have a few very strong ones who could go in there too: Galway, Monaghan are just behind them and probably Donegal. Roscommon are in with a good chance, as are Tipperary. You could probably add a few more, like Armagh, and there could be a wild card or two. What do you think?

dxhound2005

It would be as well for people to refresh their memory on how the system works, before nominating teams. Only the four provincial winners are guaranteed a place. Since Tyrone are playing Monaghan and Mayo are playing Galway in the first round, the chances of all four getting there will be low.

https://www.independent.ie/sport/gaelic-games/gaelic-football/explained-how-the-football-championships-new-super-8-quarterfinal-stage-will-work-in-2018-35482000.html

DDC1990

Hard to pick due to qualifier draws etc.

I think the provincial finals will look like this:

Munster:
Kerry v Tipperary

Connacht:
Roscommon v Galway

Ulster:
Tyrone v Donegal

Leinster:
Dublin v Kildare

I think Kerry, Galway, Tyrone and Dublin win.

So you'll have Tipperary, Roscommon, Donegal and Kildare vs 4 Qualifiers.
The best 4 Qualifiers I'd expect would be: Mayo, Monaghan, Cork and Cavan probably.

A random draw:

Tipp v Mayo - Mayo
Roscommon v Monaghan - Monaghan
Donegal v Cork - Donegal
Kildare v Cavan - Kildare

It would leave the groups like this:

Group A:
Kerry
Galway
Kildare
Donegal

Group B:
Dublin
Tyrone
Mayo
Monaghan

Obviously its total guesswork but Group B looks very tasty.

TrueGael

How will the fixtures work for this?

Who will get 2 Home/Away Fixtures etc?

Bonniedog

Galway/Mayo will be crucial game. Winner almost guaranteed - no harm to Rossies - to win Connacht and be favourites to win A. Losers have huge task to make B through the backdoor.

Reckon Tipp will beat Cork so some interesting possibilities. From Dublin perspective, the injuries etc may not mean that the 8s are as well set up for us to advance as thought.

Bonniedog

TrueGael wrote: »

How will the fixtures work for this?

Who will get 2 Home/Away Fixtures etc?

Draw when it is known who is in them/

Fr Tod Umptious

Bonniedog wrote: »

Galway/Mayo will be crucial game. Winner almost guaranteed - no harm to Rossies - to win Connacht and be favourites to win A. Losers have huge task to make B through the backdoor.

Reckon Tipp will beat Cork so some interesting possibilities. From Dublin perspective, the injuries etc may not mean that the 8s are as well set up for us to advance as thought.

The loser of Mayo v Galway does no necissarily end up in B, they could still end up in A.

The loser of the Connacht final (and Munster final for that matter) will however end up in B if they win their fourth round game.

And that could be OK, for two reasons.
It means you play Dublin early and get a look at them, and you avoid them in the SF.
You obviously have to beat the Ulster champions to second place in B to get to the SF, but Ulster has hardly been brilliant the last few years now has it.

Fr Tod Umptious

TrueGael wrote: »

How will the fixtures work for this?

Who will get 2 Home/Away Fixtures etc?

Teams will play
1 game in Croke Park (provincial champs v provincial champs and qualifier v qualifier)

1 home

1 away.

OldMrBrennan83

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blowitupref

Dublin,Kerry,Mayo,Tyrone are certs for the last 8. Monghan,Galway should be there also unless the NFL has taken too much out of them. That leaves two spots open and it could be any number of teams.

rossie1977

I don't think anyone outside Dublin and Kerry should feel they have an automatic right to be in the final 8 this year.

Obviously Mayo and Tyrone will expect to be there but both have very tough first round games to Galway and Monaghan respectively. Win those and it's pretty much nailed on they reach the last eight, lose them and it's four qualifier games and while both have shown they can traverse that route it only takes one poor performance to be knocked out.

Elsewhere I expect the winner of Cavan and Donegal to get that far, it's a long route for the winner of that game still but Derry and the winner of Down/Antrim shouldn't halt eithers momentum.

After that it's a toss up. Kildare probably only need to win one qualifier game to reach last game, same with winner of Cork and Tipp. Galway look very impressive so far but it's depends on Mayo game, again win it and they should reach that stage comfortably, lose it and it's a long road. If we (Roscommon) win Connacht we will obviously be there but if we lose in Connacht our record in the qualifiers is awful and I think fourth round qualifer is again six days after Connacht final like in 2016.

There is always a dark horse every year that nobody expects it seems. Longford, laois, meath, sligo, clare could spring a surprise or two this year.

dxhound2005

In the last five years the only Leinster team to reach the last 8 apart from Dublin was Kildare in 2015. When they were beaten 7-16 to 0-10 by Kerry. Maybe this year will be different, but the League would not suggest it will.

threeball

blowitupref wrote: »

Dublin,Kerry,Mayo,Tyrone are certs for the last 8. Monghan,Galway should be there also unless the NFL has taken too much out of them. That leaves two spots open and it could be any number of teams.

Wouldn't bank on mayo being absolute certs. If they lose to Galway they're in all sorts of bother. Mountains of games ahead with a bare 15 maybe 17 barring any injuries whatsoever.

danganabu

rossie1977 wrote: »

I don't think anyone outside Dublin and Kerry should feel they have an automatic right to be in the final 8 this year.

Really think that Tipp could cause Kerry problems if they meet in the Munster Final, while they are still somewhat naive with regard to their game management, I think they have a much stronger panel this year and have forwards that will cause anyone problems, have a feeing that Kerry might be caught cold this year and maybe in a bit of a transitional phase.

doc_17

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Teams will play
1 game in Croke Park (provincial champs v provincial champs and qualifier v qualifier)

1 home

1 away.

I hope we get Dublin away. Would be great to finally get a look at Parnell Park.

s8n

Laois are the dark horses to watch

OldMrBrennan83

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OldMrBrennan83

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dok_golf

Bonniedog wrote: »

Galway/Mayo will be crucial game. Winner almost guaranteed - no harm to Rossies - to win Connacht and be favourites to win A. Losers have huge task to make B through the backdoor.

Reckon Tipp will beat Cork so some interesting possibilities. From Dublin perspective, the injuries etc may not mean that the 8s are as well set up for us to advance as thought.

Funny, cos thats what people were saying last year as well. Think Roscommon managed to scrape a win in SALTHILL against Galway in the final. They justed about managed to get through by NINE points. ;)

manofwisdom

threeball wrote: »

Wouldn't bank on mayo being absolute certs. If they lose to Galway they're in all sorts of bother. Mountains of games ahead with a bare 15 maybe 17 barring any injuries whatsoever.

I for one don't see that Galway game as important as its made out to be. Mayo are one of the most seasoned and experienced teams around i will be shocked if they don't reach the last 8 via the front or back door this summer.

OldMrBrennan83

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threeball

manofwisdom wrote: »

I for one don't see that Galway game as important as its made out to be. Mayo are one of the most seasoned and experienced teams around i will be shocked if they don't reach the last 8 via the front or back door this summer.

Mayo didn't get going until the roscommon replay last year. This year has a similar pattern. Can they survive another route through the qualifiers this year. Even if they do, can they then face 3 tough teams, come top two in group and face a semi and final afterwords. Far too attritional for a team with that mileage imo. Even direct will be a stretch.

rossie1977

Mayo struggled against Derry and Cork for large parts of the qualifer games last year so it's not a foregone conclusion. This year you potentially could have Monaghan/Tyrone, Donegal and Galway/Mayo in the first round of the qualifers and it's an open draw.

danganabu wrote: »

Really think that Tipp could cause Kerry problems if they meet in the Munster Final, while they are still somewhat naive with regard to their game management, I think they have a much stronger panel this year and have forwards that will cause anyone problems, have a feeing that Kerry might be caught cold this year and maybe in a bit of a transitional phase.

It's always best to get Kerry early. If Kerry had Tipp in Thurles first game I would be more cautious re: Kerry. As it stands Kerry have Clare in Killarney. Clare are a decent side but Kerry should win that by a couple of points. Tipp and Cork is toss up. However if Donaghy and O'Donoghue are back for the championship you would have to fancy Kerry for Munster given the forwards they have at their disposal.

danganabu

rossie1977 wrote: »

It's always best to get Kerry early. If Kerry had Tipp in Thurles first game I would be more cautious re: Kerry. As it stands Kerry have Clare in Killarney. Clare are a decent side but Kerry should win that by a couple of points. Tipp and Cork is toss up. However if Donaghy and O'Donoghue are back for the championship you would have to fancy Kerry for Munster given the forwards they have at their disposal.

Oh fully agree they are rghtful favourites but the assertion that they are certainties I wouldnt fully agree with.

Stoner

danganabu wrote:

Oh fully agree they are rghtful favourites but the assertion that they are certainties I wouldnt fully agree with.

I think Kerry are in better shape this year than last.

VonZan

Dublin
Galway
Donegal
Kerry

Out of the rest I would fancy: Tipperary, Mayo, Tyrone and Monaghan. Obviously that depends on how the draw falls.

OldMrBrennan83

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TrueGael

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Teams will play
1 game in Croke Park (provincial champs v provincial champs and qualifier v qualifier)

1 home

1 away.

SO let me get this straight Dublin are guaranteed 2 Home Games to everyone elses 1 and also whoever plays them in their 'Croke Park' fixture will have 2 away matches which nobody else will have

And people who dare question Dublin's preferred status within the GAA bitter culchies:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Might as well call it the Dublin Juggernaut Invitational

threeball

TrueGael wrote: »

SO let me get this straight Dublin are guaranteed 2 Home Games to everyone elses 1 and also whoever plays them in their 'Croke Park' fixture will have 2 away matches which nobody else will have

And people who dare question Dublin's preferred status within the GAA bitter culchies:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Might as well call it the Dublin Juggernaut Invitational

Dublin should have to play 2 away games every second year they qualify to bring some bit of fairness to the structure.

TCDStudent1

Galway Mayo match is huge. If Mayo lose, they will basically know they won't be winning an all Ireland this year. They are losing to a team that is definitely not the best in the country and losing to them in a year where they've not taken them for granted and gave it everything for Galway. It would be seriously hard to pick themselves up for the qualifiers after such a defeat. I actually think a win in the game would mean much more for Mayo which is why I suspect they will prevail.

I've been going to Galway Mayo matches for a long time. I think this is the most anticipated one since late 90's. Going to be some crowd in Castlebar that day.

Fr Tod Umptious

Patww79 wrote: »

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I'd agrue the opposite.

The group quarter finals have made early round provincial games very important.

Teams like Mayo, Galway, Tyrone and Monaghan would rather avoid playing 8 games to get to an All Ireland semi final.

But I think the group quarter finals they might take a bit away from the provincial final itself.

At that point a team would have a fair idea what's in front of them with reagrds to round 4 qualifier matchups were they to lose the provincial final, plus it may be an advantage to play a heavyweight like Dublin in the quartets and thus avoid them for the semi final.