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The League is over - Who is going to be in the Super 8s?

  • 01-04-2018 9:14pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 10,988 ✭✭✭✭ Flukey


    I won't restrict you to 8, so who will be there are thereabouts? There are the obvious ones: Dublin, Kerry, Mayo and Tyrone. You have a few very strong ones who could go in there too: Galway, Monaghan are just behind them and probably Donegal. Roscommon are in with a good chance, as are Tipperary. You could probably add a few more, like Armagh, and there could be a wild card or two. What do you think?


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,541 ✭✭✭✭ dxhound2005


    It would be as well for people to refresh their memory on how the system works, before nominating teams. Only the four provincial winners are guaranteed a place. Since Tyrone are playing Monaghan and Mayo are playing Galway in the first round, the chances of all four getting there will be low.

    https://www.independent.ie/sport/gaelic-games/gaelic-football/explained-how-the-football-championships-new-super-8-quarterfinal-stage-will-work-in-2018-35482000.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,337 ✭✭✭✭ DDC1990


    Hard to pick due to qualifier draws etc.

    I think the provincial finals will look like this:

    Munster:
    Kerry v Tipperary

    Connacht:
    Roscommon v Galway

    Ulster:
    Tyrone v Donegal

    Leinster:
    Dublin v Kildare

    I think Kerry, Galway, Tyrone and Dublin win.

    So you'll have Tipperary, Roscommon, Donegal and Kildare vs 4 Qualifiers.
    The best 4 Qualifiers I'd expect would be: Mayo, Monaghan, Cork and Cavan probably.

    A random draw:

    Tipp v Mayo - Mayo
    Roscommon v Monaghan - Monaghan
    Donegal v Cork - Donegal
    Kildare v Cavan - Kildare

    It would leave the groups like this:

    Group A:
    Kerry
    Galway
    Kildare
    Donegal

    Group B:
    Dublin
    Tyrone
    Mayo
    Monaghan

    Obviously its total guesswork but Group B looks very tasty.


  • Registered Users Posts: 294 ✭✭ TrueGael


    How will the fixtures work for this?

    Who will get 2 Home/Away Fixtures etc?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,665 ✭✭✭ Bonniedog


    Galway/Mayo will be crucial game. Winner almost guaranteed - no harm to Rossies - to win Connacht and be favourites to win A. Losers have huge task to make B through the backdoor.

    Reckon Tipp will beat Cork so some interesting possibilities. From Dublin perspective, the injuries etc may not mean that the 8s are as well set up for us to advance as thought.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,665 ✭✭✭ Bonniedog


    TrueGael wrote: »
    How will the fixtures work for this?

    Who will get 2 Home/Away Fixtures etc?

    Draw when it is known who is in them/


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,304 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Bonniedog wrote: »
    Galway/Mayo will be crucial game. Winner almost guaranteed - no harm to Rossies - to win Connacht and be favourites to win A. Losers have huge task to make B through the backdoor.

    Reckon Tipp will beat Cork so some interesting possibilities. From Dublin perspective, the injuries etc may not mean that the 8s are as well set up for us to advance as thought.

    The loser of Mayo v Galway does no necissarily end up in B, they could still end up in A.

    The loser of the Connacht final (and Munster final for that matter) will however end up in B if they win their fourth round game.

    And that could be OK, for two reasons.
    It means you play Dublin early and get a look at them, and you avoid them in the SF.
    You obviously have to beat the Ulster champions to second place in B to get to the SF, but Ulster has hardly been brilliant the last few years now has it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,304 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    TrueGael wrote: »
    How will the fixtures work for this?

    Who will get 2 Home/Away Fixtures etc?

    Teams will play
    1 game in Croke Park (provincial champs v provincial champs and qualifier v qualifier)

    1 home

    1 away.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26,661 ✭✭✭✭ OldMrBrennan83


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,759 ✭✭✭ blowitupref


    Dublin,Kerry,Mayo,Tyrone are certs for the last 8. Monghan,Galway should be there also unless the NFL has taken too much out of them. That leaves two spots open and it could be any number of teams.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,199 ✭✭✭✭ rossie1977


    I don't think anyone outside Dublin and Kerry should feel they have an automatic right to be in the final 8 this year.

    Obviously Mayo and Tyrone will expect to be there but both have very tough first round games to Galway and Monaghan respectively. Win those and it's pretty much nailed on they reach the last eight, lose them and it's four qualifier games and while both have shown they can traverse that route it only takes one poor performance to be knocked out.

    Elsewhere I expect the winner of Cavan and Donegal to get that far, it's a long route for the winner of that game still but Derry and the winner of Down/Antrim shouldn't halt eithers momentum.

    After that it's a toss up. Kildare probably only need to win one qualifier game to reach last game, same with winner of Cork and Tipp. Galway look very impressive so far but it's depends on Mayo game, again win it and they should reach that stage comfortably, lose it and it's a long road. If we (Roscommon) win Connacht we will obviously be there but if we lose in Connacht our record in the qualifiers is awful and I think fourth round qualifer is again six days after Connacht final like in 2016.

    There is always a dark horse every year that nobody expects it seems. Longford, laois, meath, sligo, clare could spring a surprise or two this year.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,541 ✭✭✭✭ dxhound2005


    In the last five years the only Leinster team to reach the last 8 apart from Dublin was Kildare in 2015. When they were beaten 7-16 to 0-10 by Kerry. Maybe this year will be different, but the League would not suggest it will.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,351 ✭✭✭ threeball


    Dublin,Kerry,Mayo,Tyrone are certs for the last 8. Monghan,Galway should be there also unless the NFL has taken too much out of them. That leaves two spots open and it could be any number of teams.

    Wouldn't bank on mayo being absolute certs. If they lose to Galway they're in all sorts of bother. Mountains of games ahead with a bare 15 maybe 17 barring any injuries whatsoever.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 danganabu


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    I don't think anyone outside Dublin and Kerry should feel they have an automatic right to be in the final 8 this year.

    Really think that Tipp could cause Kerry problems if they meet in the Munster Final, while they are still somewhat naive with regard to their game management, I think they have a much stronger panel this year and have forwards that will cause anyone problems, have a feeing that Kerry might be caught cold this year and maybe in a bit of a transitional phase.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,167 ✭✭✭ doc_17


    Teams will play
    1 game in Croke Park (provincial champs v provincial champs and qualifier v qualifier)

    1 home

    1 away.

    I hope we get Dublin away. Would be great to finally get a look at Parnell Park.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,772 ✭✭✭ s8n


    Laois are the dark horses to watch


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26,661 ✭✭✭✭ OldMrBrennan83


    This post has been deleted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26,661 ✭✭✭✭ OldMrBrennan83


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,090 ✭✭✭ dok_golf


    Bonniedog wrote: »
    Galway/Mayo will be crucial game. Winner almost guaranteed - no harm to Rossies - to win Connacht and be favourites to win A. Losers have huge task to make B through the backdoor.

    Reckon Tipp will beat Cork so some interesting possibilities. From Dublin perspective, the injuries etc may not mean that the 8s are as well set up for us to advance as thought.

    Funny, cos thats what people were saying last year as well. Think Roscommon managed to scrape a win in SALTHILL against Galway in the final. They justed about managed to get through by NINE points. ;);)


  • Registered Users Posts: 984 ✭✭✭ manofwisdom


    threeball wrote: »
    Wouldn't bank on mayo being absolute certs. If they lose to Galway they're in all sorts of bother. Mountains of games ahead with a bare 15 maybe 17 barring any injuries whatsoever.
    I for one don't see that Galway game as important as its made out to be. Mayo are one of the most seasoned and experienced teams around i will be shocked if they don't reach the last 8 via the front or back door this summer.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26,661 ✭✭✭✭ OldMrBrennan83


    This post has been deleted.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,351 ✭✭✭ threeball


    I for one don't see that Galway game as important as its made out to be. Mayo are one of the most seasoned and experienced teams around i will be shocked if they don't reach the last 8 via the front or back door this summer.

    Mayo didn't get going until the roscommon replay last year. This year has a similar pattern. Can they survive another route through the qualifiers this year. Even if they do, can they then face 3 tough teams, come top two in group and face a semi and final afterwords. Far too attritional for a team with that mileage imo. Even direct will be a stretch.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,199 ✭✭✭✭ rossie1977


    Mayo struggled against Derry and Cork for large parts of the qualifer games last year so it's not a foregone conclusion. This year you potentially could have Monaghan/Tyrone, Donegal and Galway/Mayo in the first round of the qualifers and it's an open draw.
    danganabu wrote: »
    Really think that Tipp could cause Kerry problems if they meet in the Munster Final, while they are still somewhat naive with regard to their game management, I think they have a much stronger panel this year and have forwards that will cause anyone problems, have a feeing that Kerry might be caught cold this year and maybe in a bit of a transitional phase.

    It's always best to get Kerry early. If Kerry had Tipp in Thurles first game I would be more cautious re: Kerry. As it stands Kerry have Clare in Killarney. Clare are a decent side but Kerry should win that by a couple of points. Tipp and Cork is toss up. However if Donaghy and O'Donoghue are back for the championship you would have to fancy Kerry for Munster given the forwards they have at their disposal.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 danganabu


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    It's always best to get Kerry early. If Kerry had Tipp in Thurles first game I would be more cautious re: Kerry. As it stands Kerry have Clare in Killarney. Clare are a decent side but Kerry should win that by a couple of points. Tipp and Cork is toss up. However if Donaghy and O'Donoghue are back for the championship you would have to fancy Kerry for Munster given the forwards they have at their disposal.

    Oh fully agree they are rghtful favourites but the assertion that they are certainties I wouldnt fully agree with.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 10,934 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Stoner


    danganabu wrote:
    Oh fully agree they are rghtful favourites but the assertion that they are certainties I wouldnt fully agree with.
    I think Kerry are in better shape this year than last.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 320 ✭✭ VonZan


    Dublin
    Galway
    Donegal
    Kerry

    Out of the rest I would fancy: Tipperary, Mayo, Tyrone and Monaghan. Obviously that depends on how the draw falls.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26,661 ✭✭✭✭ OldMrBrennan83


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 294 ✭✭ TrueGael


    Teams will play
    1 game in Croke Park (provincial champs v provincial champs and qualifier v qualifier)

    1 home

    1 away.

    SO let me get this straight Dublin are guaranteed 2 Home Games to everyone elses 1 and also whoever plays them in their 'Croke Park' fixture will have 2 away matches which nobody else will have

    And people who dare question Dublin's preferred status within the GAA bitter culchies:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

    Might as well call it the Dublin Juggernaut Invitational


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,351 ✭✭✭ threeball


    TrueGael wrote: »
    SO let me get this straight Dublin are guaranteed 2 Home Games to everyone elses 1 and also whoever plays them in their 'Croke Park' fixture will have 2 away matches which nobody else will have

    And people who dare question Dublin's preferred status within the GAA bitter culchies:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

    Might as well call it the Dublin Juggernaut Invitational

    Dublin should have to play 2 away games every second year they qualify to bring some bit of fairness to the structure.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,965 ✭✭✭ TCDStudent1


    Galway Mayo match is huge. If Mayo lose, they will basically know they won't be winning an all Ireland this year. They are losing to a team that is definitely not the best in the country and losing to them in a year where they've not taken them for granted and gave it everything for Galway. It would be seriously hard to pick themselves up for the qualifiers after such a defeat. I actually think a win in the game would mean much more for Mayo which is why I suspect they will prevail.

    I've been going to Galway Mayo matches for a long time. I think this is the most anticipated one since late 90's. Going to be some crowd in Castlebar that day.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,304 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Patww79 wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    I'd agrue the opposite.

    The group quarter finals have made early round provincial games very important.

    Teams like Mayo, Galway, Tyrone and Monaghan would rather avoid playing 8 games to get to an All Ireland semi final.

    But I think the group quarter finals they might take a bit away from the provincial final itself.

    At that point a team would have a fair idea what's in front of them with reagrds to round 4 qualifier matchups were they to lose the provincial final, plus it may be an advantage to play a heavyweight like Dublin in the quartets and thus avoid them for the semi final.


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