The League is over - Who is going to be in the Super 8s?

Flukey · 01-04-2018 10:14pm #1

I won't restrict you to 8, so who will be there are thereabouts? There are the obvious ones: Dublin, Kerry, Mayo and Tyrone. You have a few very strong ones who could go in there too: Galway, Monaghan are just behind them and probably Donegal. Roscommon are in with a good chance, as are Tipperary. You could probably add a few more, like Armagh, and there could be a wild card or two. What do you think?

dxhound2005 · 01-04-2018 10:31pm

It would be as well for people to refresh their memory on how the system works, before nominating teams. Only the four provincial winners are guaranteed a place. Since Tyrone are playing Monaghan and Mayo are playing Galway in the first round, the chances of all four getting there will be low.

https://www.independent.ie/sport/gaelic-games/gaelic-football/explained-how-the-football-championships-new-super-8-quarterfinal-stage-will-work-in-2018-35482000.html

DDC1990 · 01-04-2018 10:39pm

Hard to pick due to qualifier draws etc.

I think the provincial finals will look like this:

Munster:
Kerry v Tipperary

Connacht:
Roscommon v Galway

Ulster:
Tyrone v Donegal

Leinster:
Dublin v Kildare

I think Kerry, Galway, Tyrone and Dublin win.

So you'll have Tipperary, Roscommon, Donegal and Kildare vs 4 Qualifiers.
The best 4 Qualifiers I'd expect would be: Mayo, Monaghan, Cork and Cavan probably.

A random draw:

Tipp v Mayo - Mayo
Roscommon v Monaghan - Monaghan
Donegal v Cork - Donegal
Kildare v Cavan - Kildare

It would leave the groups like this:

Group A:
Kerry
Galway
Kildare
Donegal

Group B:
Dublin
Tyrone
Mayo
Monaghan

Obviously its total guesswork but Group B looks very tasty.

TrueGael · 01-04-2018 10:45pm

How will the fixtures work for this?

Who will get 2 Home/Away Fixtures etc?

Bonniedog · 01-04-2018 10:49pm

Galway/Mayo will be crucial game. Winner almost guaranteed - no harm to Rossies - to win Connacht and be favourites to win A. Losers have huge task to make B through the backdoor.

Reckon Tipp will beat Cork so some interesting possibilities. From Dublin perspective, the injuries etc may not mean that the 8s are as well set up for us to advance as thought.

Bonniedog · 01-04-2018 10:49pm

TrueGael wrote: »

How will the fixtures work for this?

Who will get 2 Home/Away Fixtures etc?

Draw when it is known who is in them/

Fr Tod Umptious · 02-04-2018 10:44am

Bonniedog wrote: »

Galway/Mayo will be crucial game. Winner almost guaranteed - no harm to Rossies - to win Connacht and be favourites to win A. Losers have huge task to make B through the backdoor.

Reckon Tipp will beat Cork so some interesting possibilities. From Dublin perspective, the injuries etc may not mean that the 8s are as well set up for us to advance as thought.

The loser of Mayo v Galway does no necissarily end up in B, they could still end up in A.

The loser of the Connacht final (and Munster final for that matter) will however end up in B if they win their fourth round game.

And that could be OK, for two reasons.
It means you play Dublin early and get a look at them, and you avoid them in the SF.
You obviously have to beat the Ulster champions to second place in B to get to the SF, but Ulster has hardly been brilliant the last few years now has it.

Fr Tod Umptious · 02-04-2018 10:46am

TrueGael wrote: »

How will the fixtures work for this?

Who will get 2 Home/Away Fixtures etc?

Teams will play
1 game in Croke Park (provincial champs v provincial champs and qualifier v qualifier)

1 home

1 away.

OldMrBrennan83 · 02-04-2018 10:47am

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blowitupref · 02-04-2018 12:03pm

Dublin,Kerry,Mayo,Tyrone are certs for the last 8. Monghan,Galway should be there also unless the NFL has taken too much out of them. That leaves two spots open and it could be any number of teams.

rossie1977 · 02-04-2018 12:19pm

I don't think anyone outside Dublin and Kerry should feel they have an automatic right to be in the final 8 this year.

Obviously Mayo and Tyrone will expect to be there but both have very tough first round games to Galway and Monaghan respectively. Win those and it's pretty much nailed on they reach the last eight, lose them and it's four qualifier games and while both have shown they can traverse that route it only takes one poor performance to be knocked out.

Elsewhere I expect the winner of Cavan and Donegal to get that far, it's a long route for the winner of that game still but Derry and the winner of Down/Antrim shouldn't halt eithers momentum.

After that it's a toss up. Kildare probably only need to win one qualifier game to reach last game, same with winner of Cork and Tipp. Galway look very impressive so far but it's depends on Mayo game, again win it and they should reach that stage comfortably, lose it and it's a long road. If we (Roscommon) win Connacht we will obviously be there but if we lose in Connacht our record in the qualifiers is awful and I think fourth round qualifer is again six days after Connacht final like in 2016.

There is always a dark horse every year that nobody expects it seems. Longford, laois, meath, sligo, clare could spring a surprise or two this year.

dxhound2005 · 02-04-2018 1:29pm

In the last five years the only Leinster team to reach the last 8 apart from Dublin was Kildare in 2015. When they were beaten 7-16 to 0-10 by Kerry. Maybe this year will be different, but the League would not suggest it will.

threeball · 02-04-2018 3:41pm

blowitupref wrote: »

Dublin,Kerry,Mayo,Tyrone are certs for the last 8. Monghan,Galway should be there also unless the NFL has taken too much out of them. That leaves two spots open and it could be any number of teams.

Wouldn't bank on mayo being absolute certs. If they lose to Galway they're in all sorts of bother. Mountains of games ahead with a bare 15 maybe 17 barring any injuries whatsoever.

danganabu · 02-04-2018 3:50pm

rossie1977 wrote: »

I don't think anyone outside Dublin and Kerry should feel they have an automatic right to be in the final 8 this year.

Really think that Tipp could cause Kerry problems if they meet in the Munster Final, while they are still somewhat naive with regard to their game management, I think they have a much stronger panel this year and have forwards that will cause anyone problems, have a feeing that Kerry might be caught cold this year and maybe in a bit of a transitional phase.

doc_17 · 02-04-2018 4:02pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Teams will play
1 game in Croke Park (provincial champs v provincial champs and qualifier v qualifier)

1 home

1 away.

I hope we get Dublin away. Would be great to finally get a look at Parnell Park.

s8n · 02-04-2018 4:04pm

Laois are the dark horses to watch

OldMrBrennan83 · 02-04-2018 4:06pm

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OldMrBrennan83 · 02-04-2018 4:08pm

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dok_golf · 02-04-2018 4:10pm

Bonniedog wrote: »

Galway/Mayo will be crucial game. Winner almost guaranteed - no harm to Rossies - to win Connacht and be favourites to win A. Losers have huge task to make B through the backdoor.

Reckon Tipp will beat Cork so some interesting possibilities. From Dublin perspective, the injuries etc may not mean that the 8s are as well set up for us to advance as thought.

Funny, cos thats what people were saying last year as well. Think Roscommon managed to scrape a win in SALTHILL against Galway in the final. They justed about managed to get through by NINE points.

;)

manofwisdom · 02-04-2018 6:17pm

threeball wrote: »

Wouldn't bank on mayo being absolute certs. If they lose to Galway they're in all sorts of bother. Mountains of games ahead with a bare 15 maybe 17 barring any injuries whatsoever.

I for one don't see that Galway game as important as its made out to be. Mayo are one of the most seasoned and experienced teams around i will be shocked if they don't reach the last 8 via the front or back door this summer.

OldMrBrennan83 · 02-04-2018 6:26pm

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threeball · 02-04-2018 6:32pm

manofwisdom wrote: »

I for one don't see that Galway game as important as its made out to be. Mayo are one of the most seasoned and experienced teams around i will be shocked if they don't reach the last 8 via the front or back door this summer.

Mayo didn't get going until the roscommon replay last year. This year has a similar pattern. Can they survive another route through the qualifiers this year. Even if they do, can they then face 3 tough teams, come top two in group and face a semi and final afterwords. Far too attritional for a team with that mileage imo. Even direct will be a stretch.

rossie1977 · 02-04-2018 6:36pm

Mayo struggled against Derry and Cork for large parts of the qualifer games last year so it's not a foregone conclusion. This year you potentially could have Monaghan/Tyrone, Donegal and Galway/Mayo in the first round of the qualifers and it's an open draw.

danganabu wrote: »

Really think that Tipp could cause Kerry problems if they meet in the Munster Final, while they are still somewhat naive with regard to their game management, I think they have a much stronger panel this year and have forwards that will cause anyone problems, have a feeing that Kerry might be caught cold this year and maybe in a bit of a transitional phase.

It's always best to get Kerry early. If Kerry had Tipp in Thurles first game I would be more cautious re: Kerry. As it stands Kerry have Clare in Killarney. Clare are a decent side but Kerry should win that by a couple of points. Tipp and Cork is toss up. However if Donaghy and O'Donoghue are back for the championship you would have to fancy Kerry for Munster given the forwards they have at their disposal.

danganabu · 02-04-2018 6:39pm

rossie1977 wrote: »

It's always best to get Kerry early. If Kerry had Tipp in Thurles first game I would be more cautious re: Kerry. As it stands Kerry have Clare in Killarney. Clare are a decent side but Kerry should win that by a couple of points. Tipp and Cork is toss up. However if Donaghy and O'Donoghue are back for the championship you would have to fancy Kerry for Munster given the forwards they have at their disposal.

Oh fully agree they are rghtful favourites but the assertion that they are certainties I wouldnt fully agree with.

Stoner · 02-04-2018 6:42pm

danganabu wrote:

Oh fully agree they are rghtful favourites but the assertion that they are certainties I wouldnt fully agree with.

I think Kerry are in better shape this year than last.

VonZan · 02-04-2018 6:48pm

Dublin
Galway
Donegal
Kerry

Out of the rest I would fancy: Tipperary, Mayo, Tyrone and Monaghan. Obviously that depends on how the draw falls.

OldMrBrennan83 · 02-04-2018 6:52pm

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TrueGael · 02-04-2018 7:05pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Teams will play
1 game in Croke Park (provincial champs v provincial champs and qualifier v qualifier)

1 home

1 away.

SO let me get this straight Dublin are guaranteed 2 Home Games to everyone elses 1 and also whoever plays them in their 'Croke Park' fixture will have 2 away matches which nobody else will have

And people who dare question Dublin's preferred status within the GAA bitter culchies:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Might as well call it the Dublin Juggernaut Invitational

threeball · 02-04-2018 7:11pm

TrueGael wrote: »

SO let me get this straight Dublin are guaranteed 2 Home Games to everyone elses 1 and also whoever plays them in their 'Croke Park' fixture will have 2 away matches which nobody else will have

And people who dare question Dublin's preferred status within the GAA bitter culchies:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Might as well call it the Dublin Juggernaut Invitational

Dublin should have to play 2 away games every second year they qualify to bring some bit of fairness to the structure.

TCDStudent1 · 02-04-2018 9:59pm

Galway Mayo match is huge. If Mayo lose, they will basically know they won't be winning an all Ireland this year. They are losing to a team that is definitely not the best in the country and losing to them in a year where they've not taken them for granted and gave it everything for Galway. It would be seriously hard to pick themselves up for the qualifiers after such a defeat. I actually think a win in the game would mean much more for Mayo which is why I suspect they will prevail.

I've been going to Galway Mayo matches for a long time. I think this is the most anticipated one since late 90's. Going to be some crowd in Castlebar that day.

Fr Tod Umptious · 03-04-2018 12:34am

Patww79 wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I'd agrue the opposite.

The group quarter finals have made early round provincial games very important.

Teams like Mayo, Galway, Tyrone and Monaghan would rather avoid playing 8 games to get to an All Ireland semi final.

But I think the group quarter finals they might take a bit away from the provincial final itself.

At that point a team would have a fair idea what's in front of them with reagrds to round 4 qualifier matchups were they to lose the provincial final, plus it may be an advantage to play a heavyweight like Dublin in the quartets and thus avoid them for the semi final.

Fr Tod Umptious · 03-04-2018 12:36am

TrueGael wrote: »

SO let me get this straight Dublin are guaranteed 2 Home Games to everyone elses 1 and also whoever plays them in their 'Croke Park' fixture will have 2 away matches which nobody else will have

And people who dare question Dublin's preferred status within the GAA bitter culchies:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Might as well call it the Dublin Juggernaut Invitational

Let's not turn it into a anti Dublin whinge fest please.

Fr Tod Umptious · 03-04-2018 12:49am

rossie1977 wrote: »

I don't think anyone outside Dublin and Kerry should feel they have an automatic right to be in the final 8 this year.

Obviously Mayo and Tyrone will expect to be there but both have very tough first round games to Galway and Monaghan respectively. Win those and it's pretty much nailed on they reach the last eight, lose them and it's four qualifier games and while both have shown they can traverse that route it only takes one poor performance to be knocked out.

Elsewhere I expect the winner of Cavan and Donegal to get that far, it's a long route for the winner of that game still but Derry and the winner of Down/Antrim shouldn't halt eithers momentum.

After that it's a toss up. Kildare probably only need to win one qualifier game to reach last game, same with winner of Cork and Tipp. Galway look very impressive so far but it's depends on Mayo game, again win it and they should reach that stage comfortably, lose it and it's a long road. If we (Roscommon) win Connacht we will obviously be there but if we lose in Connacht our record in the qualifiers is awful and I think fourth round qualifer is again six days after Connacht final like in 2016.

There is always a dark horse every year that nobody expects it seems. Longford, laois, meath, sligo, clare could spring a surprise or two this year.

No it's not

The round 4 qualifier (7th July) is 3 weeks after the Connacht final (17th June)

aidan24326 · 03-04-2018 1:08am

manofwisdom wrote: »

I for one don't see that Galway game as important as its made out to be. Mayo are one of the most seasoned and experienced teams around i will be shocked if they don't reach the last 8 via the front or back door this summer.

The point people are making is that this is an ageing Mayo team with a serious amount of mileage, and that they were very lucky to come through the qualifiers in one piece last year.

You could never write this Mayo team off but I think the game on May 13th is even more important for Mayo than for Galway, as they won't fancy another slog through the qualifiers with an ageing and not overly deep squad.

Galway on the other hand are a young team with lots of options off the bench who are well equipped to go the backdoor route if that's how it plays out. But right now I think that game in Castlebar is a hard one to call. Mayo at their very best are still a better team than Galway in terms of proven big-match results but with Lee Keegan and Cillian O'Connor missing and facing a much-improved Galway team, Mayo are up against it.

I still think they'll probably be knocking around later in the Summer but I've no doubt they'd rather go the direct route, which makes the Galway game a crucial one.

corny · 03-04-2018 8:11am

TrueGael wrote: »

SO let me get this straight Dublin are guaranteed 2 Home Games to everyone elses 1 and also whoever plays them in their 'Croke Park' fixture will have 2 away matches which nobody else will have

And people who dare question Dublin's preferred status within the GAA bitter culchies:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Might as well call it the Dublin Juggernaut Invitational

Its the 'bitter culchies' putting Dublin in Croke Park so you kind of forfeit on the sympathy vote.

largepants · 03-04-2018 8:22am

TrueGael wrote: »

SO let me get this straight Dublin are guaranteed 2 Home Games to everyone elses 1 and also whoever plays them in their 'Croke Park' fixture will have 2 away matches which nobody else will have

And people who dare question Dublin's preferred status within the GAA bitter culchies:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Might as well call it the Dublin Juggernaut Invitational

Careful now.

You'll either be accused of being bitter or begrudging or both. You dare not bring any of the above up in any thread because it's not to be discussed under any circumstances.

You simply bow down to the powers that be and hand over your hard earned money to ensure that it continues.

C__MC · 03-04-2018 8:26am

I think the rossies could well win Connacht again. They have a stronger panel then last year and will have a home final plus an easy semi final. There panel also stronger than last year.

Kerry will win Munster at a canter as will Dublin in Leinster

Donegal have a great chance in ulster. They are improving despite relegation and have an easy side to draw.

My bets
Dublin
Kerry
Roscommon
Donegal

Tyrone
Mayo
Galway
Armagh/Tipperary

Are the qualifiers based on two seperate draws again this year?

munsterlegend · 03-04-2018 9:46am

C__MC wrote: »

I think the rossies could well win Connacht again. They have a stronger panel then last year and will have a home final plus an easy semi final. There panel also stronger than last year.

Kerry will win Munster at a canter as will Dublin in Leinster

Donegal have a great chance in ulster. They are improving despite relegation and have an easy side to draw.

My bets
Dublin
Kerry
Roscommon
Donegal

Tyrone
Mayo
Galway
Armagh/Tipperary

Are the qualifiers based on two seperate draws again this year?

I'd agree with most of your selections. If Cork can get everyone fit and the nemo players back I think they will beat tipp and get the last spot.

Fr Tod Umptious · 03-04-2018 10:20am

C__MC wrote: »

I think the rossies could well win Connacht again. They have a stronger panel then last year and will have a home final plus an easy semi final. There panel also stronger than last year.

Kerry will win Munster at a canter as will Dublin in Leinster

Donegal have a great chance in ulster. They are improving despite relegation and have an easy side to draw.

My bets
Dublin
Kerry
Roscommon
Donegal

Tyrone
Mayo
Galway
Armagh/Tipperary

Are the qualifiers based on two seperate draws again this year?

They are playing Cavan in the preliminary, nothing easy about that.

Qualifiers this year are in a single draw, no A or B side.

EICVD · 03-04-2018 12:39pm

threeball wrote: »

Dublin should have to play 2 away games every second year they qualify to bring some bit of fairness to the structure.

& not one Dub would disagree, we wouldn’t even complain if we play our ‘home’ one away every year

RayVaughan1984 · 03-04-2018 12:47pm

Hopefully Tipp can make it.It would really cement their progress.

blanch152 · 03-04-2018 1:09pm

EICVD wrote: »

& not one Dub would disagree, we wouldn’t even complain if we play our ‘home’ one away every year

This Croke Park thing is a myth.

In the League, where we have to play as many games away as at home, we have reached the last 6 finals, winning 5 of them. That is better than our record in the Championship where we play all but one at home.

How do the Dublin-haters explain that?

munsterlegend · 03-04-2018 1:31pm

blanch152 wrote: »

This Croke Park thing is a myth.

In the League, where we have to play as many games away as at home, we have reached the last 6 finals, winning 5 of them. That is better than our record in the Championship where we play all but one at home.

How do the Dublin-haters explain that?

There is an advantage playing on the same pitch all the time. What's debatable is how much difference it makes. In Leinster not much but if dublin had to go to say Killarney to play kerry in an all Ireland quarter final onwards it would definitely narrow the gap.

Bonniedog · 03-04-2018 1:47pm

As EICVD said above, no-one in Dublin would object to playing two games away from CP - one being a neutral venue. It is of course an advantage. Leinster is irrelevant - only lost I think one game away out of 35 going back to 70s, 80s and 90s when away games in Leinster were common, depending on the draw.

Would be interesting to see a group game between say Dublin and one of the Ulster teams at a neutral venue other than Croke Park.

Decision is not Dublin's. It is based on GAA's thinking regarding attendances, as was consistent policy of Leinster council - made up of all Leinster counties - to play all Dublin games since late 90s in Croke Park.

Thurles, Limerick, Cork would be adequate for travelling support from Dublin and whoever they played. GAA will also be crossing fingers that Dublin and Mayo are not drawn away against a county with a capacity that would not hold season and county board pass holders from either, never mind club members!

StupidLikeAFox · 03-04-2018 1:51pm

Think this is going to be great. Each of the last 4 games before super 8s (provincial losers vs qualifiers) are going to be like a final for the teams involved. Then you are going to have proper, meaningful football being played all over the country in August.

TrueGael · 03-04-2018 5:28pm

blanch152 wrote: »

This Croke Park thing is a myth.

In the League, where we have to play as many games away as at home, we have reached the last 6 finals, winning 5 of them. That is better than our record in the Championship where we play all but one at home.

How do the Dublin-haters explain that?

“I honestly believe Croke Park must be worth an eight-point advantage to Dublin,”

https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/gaa/how-big-is-dublins-croker-shadow-468882.html

You and your cohorts are fooling nobody that home advantage doesn't exist big time for Dublin. Every one of those finals and semi finals were at home regardless of how where ye finished in the league table.

Galway finished 1st in the table yet their reward was an away final(what other sport in the world would that happen?) which by the way could easily have been played at Salthill given the pitiful attendance (even Dublin fans are well bored now and not willing to fork out money and who could blame them)

In the 'Super 8' if ye draw Tyrone, Mayo and Tipperary it doesn't take a genius to work out which game they will 'force' ye to play away now does it?

Its bad enough that the 2 Home Games is another advantage to be added to the long list but this years Ulster Champions will have to play 2 games AWAY from home which means whoever gets to the Ulster Final would be much much better off losing which is all because of the GAA's obsession with pandering to the Juggernaut

Bonniedog · 03-04-2018 5:46pm

127 posts all whinging about Dublin!

Do you not have your own county to be talking about?

Mushy · 03-04-2018 5:46pm

StupidLikeAFox wrote: »

Think this is going to be great. Each of the last 4 games before super 8s (provincial losers vs qualifiers) are going to be like a final for the teams involved. Then you are going to have proper, meaningful football being played all over the country in August.

Couldnt agree more, its making me excited for the football championship more than ever id say. Having competitive games in neutral grounds will make for great encounters, look at Kerry-mayo in Limerick. Should be great atmosphere at them, the towns will be busy which will help it. Better than half empty Croker week in week out.

Fr Tod Umptious · 03-04-2018 5:56pm

Mushy wrote: »

Couldnt agree more, its making me excited for the football championship more than ever id say. Having competitive games in neutral grounds will make for great encounters, look at Kerry-mayo in Limerick. Should be great atmosphere at them, the towns will be busy which will help it. Better than half empty Croker week in week out.

They won't be in neutral grounds other than CP.
For example
Mayo v Kerry will be in CP

Mayo v Qualifier will be in Mayo

Qualifier v Mayo will be at qualifiers venue.

Provincial champ v Provincial champ and Qualifier v Qualifier = Croke Park

Provincial champ v qualifier = home/away.

blanch152 · 03-04-2018 6:13pm

TrueGael wrote: »

“I honestly believe Croke Park must be worth an eight-point advantage to Dublin,”

https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/gaa/how-big-is-dublins-croker-shadow-468882.html

You and your cohorts are fooling nobody that home advantage doesn't exist big time for Dublin. Every one of those finals and semi finals were at home regardless of how where ye finished in the league table.

Galway finished 1st in the table yet their reward was an away final(what other sport in the world would that happen?) which by the way could easily have been played at Salthill given the pitiful attendance (even Dublin fans are well bored now and not willing to fork out money and who could blame them)

In the 'Super 8' if ye draw Tyrone, Mayo and Tipperary it doesn't take a genius to work out which game they will 'force' ye to play away now does it?

Its bad enough that the 2 Home Games is another advantage to be added to the long list but this years Ulster Champions will have to play 2 games AWAY from home which means whoever gets to the Ulster Final would be much much better off losing which is all because of the GAA's obsession with pandering to the Juggernaut

You haven't addressed my main point. Why have Dublin done better in the League than in the Championship over the last six seasons, given they play a higher proportion of away games in the League?

danganabu · 03-04-2018 6:23pm

blanch152 wrote: »

This Croke Park thing is a myth.

In the League, where we have to play as many games away as at home, we have reached the last 6 finals, winning 5 of them. That is better than our record in the Championship where we play all but one at home.

How do the Dublin-haters explain that?

So we finally have you admitting that Croke Park is a home game for Dublin, not hiding behind this facade of Parnell Park? Some of your fellow jacks not going to be best pleased

:D

The League is over - Who is going to be in the Super 8s?

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