Prelude to Cold Weather/Snow - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards)

JCX BXC

Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »

Are people loosing hope now? Will this be another damp squib

No they're not!

As has been said several times, its entirely normal to see a spanner in the works, and we've to wait a few days for clarification on what's to come. Some posters are naturally positive, some are naturally negative. Try take everything on board.

Jumpinjames

gabeeg wrote: »

The GFS is looking fantastic again, but if it's right then we'll all be going to work on Monday

I’m in Dublin and was thinking of going to Mayo on Saturday for 2 or 3 days to see the parents but was putting it off as I didn’t want to miss the action in Dublin. Has the potential snow been pushed out further into next week? If so I might go so on Saturday and be back in Dublin Tuesday afternoon

sryanbruen

Youngpensioner wrote: »

Actually it is. And every other winter. Like I said, facts over sentiments.

Actually it's not and everybody who has been model watching this season will tell you so.

ECM is the one that showed an easterly in early January with bitter temperatures as one example. Others like the GFS never went on it.

Have a look through the FI Charts thread yourself as proof: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057782713

You still have yet to show any good addition to the discussion. I am getting sick and tired of it now that I should put you on ignore.

Gaoth Laidir

Youngpensioner wrote: »

As you said yourself recently "The GFS isn't worth a shíte"

I posted the GFS because it's the coldest (best-case scenario), as usual. If it's losing some slight ground then the chances go down.

JCX BXC

Fairly big delay actually in the latest run, bringing the -10 uppers to late Monday Night again as it was a few days ago. Falling more in line with the ECM though so perhaps it should be welcomed?

gabeeg

Jumpinjames wrote: »

I’m in Dublin and was thinking of going to Mayo on Saturday for 2 or 3 days to see the parents but was putting it off as I didn’t want to miss the action in Dublin. Has the potential snow been pushed out further into next week? If so I might go so on Saturday and be back in Dublin Tuesday afternoon

From what we're seeing from the big two models, that plan you just outlined might be alright.

If some of the lesser models are right though, you could have a bloody nightmare getting back.

Gaoth Laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

Actually it's not and everybody who has been model watching this season will tell you so.

ECM is the one that showed an easterly in early January with bitter temperatures as one example. Others like the GFS never went on it.

Have a look through the FI Charts thread yourself as proof: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057782713

You still have yet to show any good addition to the discussion. I am getting sick and tired of it now that I should put you on ignore.

Sryan, one swallow does not a summer make. In 8 out of 10 cases, cats (and stats) prefer the ECM.

lawred2

gabeeg wrote: »

kudos on the correct spelling of squib.

Absolutely not. We're seeing possibly the best charts of the internet age.

Where are they?

sryanbruen

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Sryan, one swallow does not a summer make. In 8 out of 10 cases, cats (and stats) prefer the ECM.

Think you're missing the point that I'm talking specifically this Winter alone, not any other.

Plus I do think some people are taking this whole thing or event out of proportion, including MT.

Youngpensioner

sryanbruen wrote: »

Actually it's not and everybody who has been model watching this season will tell you so.

ECM is the one that showed an easterly in early January with bitter temperatures as one example. Others like the GFS never went on it.

Have a look through the FI Charts thread yourself as proof:

You still have yet to show any good addition to the discussion. I am getting sick and tired of it now that I should put you on ignore.

It has the highest verification score above all the models GFS UKMO GEM ETC. It's just a fact the ECM is top dog weather model, cherry picking one example doesn't change that fact. It is best this Winter again, I haven't shown anything good to the discussion because I stated a fact you don't like, facts over sentiments.

gabeeg

JCX BXC wrote: »

Fairly big delay actually in the latest run, bringing the -10 uppers to late Monday Night again as it was a few days ago. Falling more in line with the ECM though so perhaps it should be welcomed?

It looks absolutely monstrous though as it looms over us at 162

Saganist

JCX BXC wrote: »

Fairly big delay actually in the latest run, bringing the -10 uppers to late Monday Night again as it was a few days ago. Falling more in line with the ECM though so perhaps it should be welcomed?

Although delayed. Am I missing something ? The massive cold pool that was in Russia/Siberia on the last run has shifted West right into Scandi Europe ? Layman reading of the charts

Gaoth Laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

Think you're missing the point that I'm talking specifically this Winter alone, not any other.

You're talking about one event this winter. Taken as a whole, I think you'll find the verification stats for the ECM top all of the others.

Donegal Storm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Actually it's not and everybody who has been model watching this season will tell you so.

ECM is the one that showed an easterly in early January with bitter temperatures as one example. Others like the GFS never went on it.

Have a look through the FI Charts thread yourself as proof: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057782713

You still have yet to show any good addition to the discussion. I am getting sick and tired of it now that I should put you on ignore.

ECMWF has always had the top verification stats, UKMO generally second with GFS and GEM alternating for third. While for isolated events the GFS might have done better, overall there's no denying that ECMWF is and always has been vastly superior

gabeeg

Oooh it's gonna topple down over Scotland in this run rather than hit from the south east

Youngpensioner

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I posted the GFS because it's the coldest (best-case scenario), as usual. If it's losing some slight ground then the chances go down.

Can't disagree with that.

Rougies

JCX BXC wrote: »

Fairly big delay actually in the latest run, bringing the -10 uppers to late Monday Night again as it was a few days ago. Falling more in line with the ECM though so perhaps it should be welcomed?

My thoughts exactly. I'd much rather 2 slightly watered down runs in agreement from the GFS and ECM than 2 different mega extreme ones. Get them in agreement with timing and good safe level of cold at 48hrs and then they can go nuts all they want with doomsday scenarios!

Snowbiee21

gabeeg wrote: »

Oooh it's gonna topple down over Scotland in this run rather than hit from the south east

Respect all your posts and time gabeeg, but with the delays do you know think this is leading over somewhat like we’ve seen some cross model agreement on a very snow picture Monday now it has changed .

Cork981

I’m no expert but has the 18z gfs brought the colder -20 a lot closer to Scotland at +174h.



https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018022018/gfs-1-174.png?18

JCX BXC

Looking much colder in this run from Wednesday onwards.

BLIZZARD7

It's being said 100's of times already but this is just run to run variation guys, ignore details beyond +96hrs. Extremely cold and possibly snowy week still very much on the cards.

United road

sryanbruen wrote: »

I do think some people are taking this whole thing or event out of proportion, including MT.

Big statement, if i want confirmation on what weather was like in past tense then you are the man!
But for what might happen in to the future then i am following MT.

Jumpinjames

gabeeg wrote: »

From what we're seeing from the big two models, that plan you just outlined might be alright.

If some of the lesser models are right though, you could have a bloody nightmare getting back.

I hope folk don’t think I’m mad but the thoughts of battling heavy snow trying to get back to Clondalkin would be epic. I remember being In Greystones one evening during the December 2010 and it belted heavy snow for about 2 hours and the M50 was littered with abandoned cars but my little Golf made it through albeit a bit of a struggle at times. Good times. 2 hours to get home that night.

gabeeg

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Respect all your posts and time gabeeg, but with the delays do you know think this is leading over somewhat like we’ve seen some cross model agreement on a very snow picture Monday now it has changed .

It seems less and less likely that we'll see any snow on Monday.
First sign on the GFS is early Tuesday morning for the East cost. You can't take snow predictions seriously in these instances though. Not from this model anyway.

sryanbruen

United road wrote: »

Big statement, if i want confirmation on what weather was like in past tense then you are the man!
But for what might happen in to the future then i am following MT.

Like 40cm of snow, in Dublin? Come on.

nacho libre

Is the high heading toward Greenland on this run? I don't understand why people are being so negative when we are seeing stellar charts for cold and snow.
Ok. We probably won't get a foot and a half of snow out of it(we knew deep down there would be downgrades from the dream charts), but there will be decent accumulations if charts don't downgrade massively in the next few days.

Rougies

Jumpinjames wrote: »

I hope folk don’t think I’m mad but the thoughts of battling heavy snow trying to get back to Clondalkin would be epic. I remember being In Greystones one evening during the December 2010 and it belted heavy snow for about 2 hours and the M50 was littered with abandoned cars but my little Golf made it through albeit a bit of a struggle at times. Good times. 2 hours to get home that night.

Most folk would probably think you're mad, but this is the right place for you :pac:

I want to get stuck on the M50, get lost in a blizzard trying to walk home and end up in the Wicklow mountains hunting rats for survival.

barney 20v

sryanbruen wrote: »

Like 40cm of snow, in Dublin? Come on.

Any chance of a link to where MT forecast that?

TheMilkyPirate

Somebody please post the 18Z GFS +192 chart so we can all get carried away again. Wow

Rougies

sryanbruen wrote: »

Like 40cm of snow, in Dublin? Come on.

It's perfectly plausible. We got about 30cm twice in South Dublin in Dec 2010, in fact the second big fall was probably about 35cm. Get under a decent streamer for hours and 40cm is easily done.