Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

JohnnyFlash

FFVII wrote: »

Will people lose out??

Almost certainly.

grindle

FFVII wrote: »

Will people lose out??

A very good reference to look at here would be Oyster Pearl.

Big hype, hitting $100m+ cap at one point. Dev falls out with rest of team through 2018, tweaks contract to give himself 3m tokens, sells into crowd.

Remaining Oyster Pearl team changes name to Opacity, hopes that faith can be rebuilt and previous heights can be reached again. Current market cap is $636k.

Not saying that'll definitely happen again, but there are many more stories like Oyster Pearl than there are stories where a project tanks and makes it back.

rapul

Think coinbase has just crashed?! Usual shenanigans is it

grindle

There is approx. one month's worth of people who bought at these levels in 2017 when they were newbies and might want to gtfo right now - if they were smart enough to hold.

Or just CB doing it's thang, you can't sell the peak if it's down.

Lex Luthor

grindle wrote: »

There is approx. one month's worth of people who bought at these levels in 2017 when they were newbies and might want to gtfo right now - if they were smart enough to hold.

Or just CB doing it's thang, you can't sell the peak if it's down.

I would imagine a small minority sold back out and made small profits back then, less than 10% I'd say

and the rest, well I'd say most sold up at a loss and there is only about 10% still holding

KilOit

Lex Luthor wrote: »

I would imagine a small minority sold back out and made small profits back then, less than 10% I'd say

and the rest, well I'd say most sold up at a loss and there is only about 10% still holding

Sold my initial investment back at the jan 2018 peak but kicking myself I didn't sell more. Would of took years off my mortgage

Bob24

KilOit wrote: »

Sold my initial investment back at the jan 2018 peak but kicking myself I didn't sell more. Would of took years off my mortgage

Problem with large disposals which would make a massive dent on a mortgage is CGT.

Lets say someone with great foresight bought 10k euros worth of BTC at the beginning of 2017, and wants to sell at the end of the year when their holdings have turned into 150k which will clear their mortgage. The idea of gifting almost 50k to Revenue as part of the transaction kind of makes you think twice about something which might otherwise be a no-brainer :-/

Lex Luthor

Bob24 wrote: »

Problem with large disposals which would make a massive dent on a mortgage is CGT.

Lets say someone with great foresight bought 10k euros worth of BTC at the beginning of 2017, and wants to sell at the end of the year when their holdings have turned into 150k which will clear their mortgage. The idea of gifting almost 50k to Revenue as part of the transaction kind of makes you think twice about something which might otherwise be a no-brainer :-/

I hear you but profit of that much from a 10k investment is unheard of in such a short period

Bob24

Lex Luthor wrote: »

I hear you but profit of that much from a 10k investment is unheard of in such a short period

As I said, definitely agreed that one would have needed great foresight to buy and sell a full allocation exactly at those times. But the figures I am giving are based on the real world exemple of the profits one would have gotten for buying BTC in the first quarter of 2017 and selling their holdings at the beginning of December the same year.

cnocbui

I didn't sell and still have what I bought in 2016 and early '17. Current theoretical profit is around 970%

seannash

What I cant reconcile is massive unemployment worldwide yet people are buying bitcoin.
Its not a phenomenon only prevalent in crypto. The company I'm working for has smashed all sales targets this year. Do people not realize that their jobs may not be returning after Covid?


Is truely a strange time.
I know people will say institutions are now investing, but haven't we always suspected they were anyway.

makeorbrake

seannash wrote: »

What I cant reconcile is massive unemployment worldwide yet people are buying bitcoin.
Its not a phenomenon only prevalent in crypto. The company I'm working for has smashed all sales targets this year. Do people not realize that their jobs may not be returning after Covid?

I came across some stat earlier in the year which demonstrated that there's more disposable income in circulation this year that there was last year. Makes sense - those money printers are red hot!

seannash wrote: »

Is truely a strange time.
I know people will say institutions are now investing, but haven't we always suspected they were anyway.

I'm not sure if they're fully in yet. We've been waiting on them for a few years. I think it's more well heeled renegades that have come over from that world for the moment. The rest will follow.

Bob24

makeorbrake wrote: »

I'm not sure if they're fully in yet. We've been waiting on them for a few years. I think it's more well heeled renegades that have come over from that world for the moment. The rest will follow.

Yes, I believe for now it is only the institutions which are the most agile and not restricted by regulations or prudential rules in terms of what assets they can buy (i.e. we are talking the likes of family offices and some hedge funds). Things like pension funds are a lot more restricted and conservative in their allocations, and probably won’t be jumping in for quite a while.

Whelo79

People who have not lost their jobs have WAY more savings than they had previously, therefore way more money to play around with.

People are unable to go out and blow a few hundred euros weekly on dinners and drinks. People are not friviously spending money on clothes and gadgets that they don't really need.

A lot of people are spending money on new cars, house renovations and others I guess are pumping some money into the crypto market.

There's definitely way more institutional money going into this market than there was in 2017 also.

seannash

Whelo79 wrote: »

People who have not lost their jobs have WAY more savings than they had previously, therefore way more money to play around with.

People are unable to go out and blow a few hundred euros weekly on dinners and drinks. People are not friviously spending money on clothes and gadgets that they don't really need.

A lot of people are spending money on new cars, house renovations and others I guess are pumping some money into the crypto market.

There's definitely way more institutional money going into this market than there was in 2017 also.

I get that but surely with so many being furloughed and made unemployed it would stand to reason people aren't so optimistic about coming out the other side and not going straight into a massive recession

q85dw7osi4lebg

A massive recession right now would be too predictable and there would be too much money to be made IMO.

seannash

Gerald Obedient Manicurist wrote: »

A massive recession right now would be too predictable and there would be too much money to be made IMO.

I'm not sure hat you mean by too predictable

q85dw7osi4lebg

seannash wrote: »

I'm not sure hat you mean by too predictable

By too predictable I mean everyone is somewhat expecting one given Covid and lockdowns. But the stockmarket is doing great, the property market is doing well, vast majority of my acquaintances are also saving more than ever, so when lockdown ends there's money to be spent. Celtic tiger 2.0 on the way (bar for those who lost their jobs obviously - whom I sympathise with).

dxhound2005

The figures do show that savings are increasing during the pandemic. And they doubled between 2014 and 2019. But I wouldn't have a clue how much any of my acquaintances are saving.

seannash

Gerald Obedient Manicurist wrote: »

By too predictable I mean everyone is somewhat expecting one given Covid and lockdowns. But the stockmarket is doing great, the property market is doing well, vast majority of my acquaintances are also saving more than ever, so when lockdown ends there's money to be spent. Celtic tiger 2.0 on the way (bar for those who lost their jobs obviously - whom I sympathise with).

I thought it was widely believed to be on the cards before covid.
I sincerely hope we dont but most economists are saying we are headed or already in an economic recession despite what you say above.
I guess I'm wondering if all this spending is wise due to whats generally considered to be looming on the horizon.


I might be veering off topic here

Lux23

I was watching Bloomberg a couple of days ago, and one analyst said - 'it is clear in the US there will be a lot of people suffering this Christmas financially, but the markets don't really seem to care'. Which is probably one of the most honest things, I have ever heard one of those people say.

Lex Luthor

Average joe is not buying Bitcoin right now
When you hear your granny telling you that she heard from the woman sitting next to her at the hairdresser is buying them it’s time to sell

Stormington

Lex Luthor wrote: »

Average joe is not buying Bitcoin right now
When you hear your granny telling you that she heard from the woman sitting next to her at the hairdresser is buying them it’s time to sell

There's an easier barometer in Ireland: RTE. When the Late Late or Radio 1 mention it, sell up.

Lex Luthor

Stormington wrote: »

There's an easier barometer in Ireland: RTE. When the Late Late or Radio 1 mention it, sell up.

all well & good them mentioning it, its getting the audience to buy in

at $17k people wont even look at it and they wont understand you can only buy a fraction

now we have a different breed of investors.....its billionaires, large companies, etc cos they see further ahead than the avg joe
inflation is coming so they are planning ahead, not selling and supply is decreasing with more demand which will cause price to go up

I think we will see a much bigger price this time around than 2017, strap yourselves in for this one

Stormington

Lex Luthor wrote: »

all well & good them mentioning it, its getting the audience to buy in

at $17k people wont even look at it and they wont understand you can only buy a fraction

If they can get Eddie Hobbs in to flog apartments near the mountains in Bulgarian, they'll be able to get some gombeen in to explain buying BTC.

If it does happen, I'll be tearing the mickey off myself watching it at the thought of flogging my overpriced BTC to the innocents in the audience.

daheff

Stormington wrote: »

If they can get Eddie Hobbs in to flog apartments near the mountains in Bulgarian, they'll be able to get some gombeen in to explain buying BTC.

If it does happen, I'll be tearing the mickey off myself watching it at the thought of flogging my overpriced BTC to the innocents in the audience.

What do you see as fair value for BTC?

Stormington

daheff wrote: »

What do you see as fair value for BTC?

Any amount more than I have bought if for

Lex Luthor

daheff wrote: »

What do you see as fair value for BTC?

1btc = 1btc

makeorbrake

Stormington wrote: »

Any amount more than I have bought if for

You've been hodling for a while, correct?

I'll give you $1 above your buy price. That's fair value, right?

Stormington

You've been hodling for a while, correct?

I'll give you $1 above your buy price. That's fair value, right?

That's not value. BTC has become more scarce since I started, for a start.

I've also sold chunks off to buy alts and shares.
BTC -> ETH -> Alts -> BTC is the wheel.