Off Topic Thread 4.0

irishbucsfan

I mean... yes absolutely he should be impeached. Pence is not a nice man but there's nothing to indicate he's dirty. (EDIT: Not that I think its remotely likely he will be impeached)

As for Trump stopping the cold war turning hot... that's the sort of argument Neville Chamberlain was making!

bilston

prawnsambo wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Do we want Trump impeached?

Mike Pence seems a more terrifying prospect than Trump.

The other thing is that given the state of relations between the US and Russia, Trump may be the only thing stopping any new cold war turning hot.

Omorosa agrees with you. :eek:

I have no idea who or what Omorosa is/are...but they sure seem sensible

bilston

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I mean... yes absolutely he should be impeached. Pence is not a nice man but there's nothing to indicate he's dirty. (EDIT: Not that I think its remotely likely he will be impeached)

As for Trump stopping the cold war turning hot... that's the sort of argument Neville Chamberlain was making!

Yeah but Neville Chamberlain didn't have a nuclear holocaust to worry about. To be rather NIMBYish about it IBF I'd rather my kids weren't incinerated by a Russian ICBM because of some bother thousands of miles away in Syria or Ukraine.

stephen_n

bilston wrote: »

The other thing is that given the state of relations between the US and Russia, Trump may be the only thing stopping any new cold war turning hot.

I don’t think this has or ever will be an issue. Neither side would allow it to happen, no matter what posturing goes on.

irishbucsfan

bilston wrote: »

Yeah but Neville Chamberlain didn't have a nuclear holocaust to worry about. To be rather NIMBYish about it IBF I'd rather my kids weren't incinerated by a Russian ICBM because of some bother thousands of miles away in Syria or Ukraine.

Pence as President would absolutely not lead to a nuclear holocaust. That's not remotely plausible.

I'm far, far more concerned about the rise of a deeply connected right-wing political class across the UK and the US. While the centre crumbles.

As has been pointed out, Steve Bannon's recent appearances in British media are very concerning. Especially his comments on Tommy Robinson. That has me very concerned. UKIP took a bounce in those latest polls as well, there's potential for disaster there if they manage to convert anti-EU sentiment to ethno-nationalism, and recent scenes suggest they're well on their way.

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

I have no idea who or what Omorosa is/are...but they sure seem sensible

She was a contestant on Trump's 'Apprentice' show and later became a kind of PA to him. She had a nebulous enough job at the WH, from which she was fired when John Kelly came in.

irishbucsfan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Pence as President would absolutely not lead to a nuclear holocaust. That's not remotely plausible.

I'm far, far more concerned about the rise of a deeply connected right-wing political class across the UK and the US. While the centre crumbles.

As has been pointed out, Steve Bannon's recent appearances in British media are very concerning. Especially his comments on Tommy Robinson. That has me very concerned. UKIP took a bounce in those latest polls as well, there's potential for disaster there if they manage to convert anti-EU sentiment to ethno-nationalism, and recent scenes suggest they're well on their way.

The US ambassador formally making requests in relation to Tommy Robinson is far more concerning to me. Bannon is in the UK because he's lost his powerbase in the US (not his supporters, but his enablers in the GOP after the failure of Roy Moore).

Things are getting precarious now all over. US is in a bit of a state of shock over the press conference yesterday. Republicans and even fox news are using strong language to condemn Trump and he doesn't react well to criticism. I think if he doesn't react at all it's probably the strongest evidence that he is in some way tied to Russian influence because any other even remote slight against him has been met with massive over reactions.

It's no better here, the commons vote yesterday means that a border can now only be in Ireland and we will veto that no matter what. It's now clearly no deal brexit or no brexit - they are the two options. The right wing press in a timely fashion is saying today that a no deal brexit wouldn't be that bad.

On the plus side Phil Hogan seems to have done a good deal for our agri business in the massive EU - Japan deal that will offset some of the damage of Brexit particularly for dairy farmers and whey producers.

Very little makes sense at the moment.

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Pence as President would absolutely not lead to a nuclear holocaust. .

Evangelicals have a fond perspective of the end of the world and he would be the greatest zealot to sit in the oval office. If Trump was ousted over Russia with damage to the wider GOP in the process, Pence would have to react to that and things could get out of hand.

bilston

It's often been said that Russia couldn't defeat the combined might of the EU in a conventional war. Assuming that is true I wonder if that would be still be the case if you took the Brits out of it.

In other words we see NATO divided with it's biggest contributor making ominous noises about its future and we see the EU splitting with arguably (maybe it's France??) its biggest or second biggest military power leaving.

It's all working out rather well for Putin at the moment.

irishbucsfan

Deleted User wrote: »

The US ambassador formally making requests in relation to Tommy Robinson is far more concerning to me. Bannon is in the UK because he's lost his powerbase in the US (not his supporters, but his enablers in the GOP after the failure of Roy Moore).

Things are getting precarious now all over. US is in a bit of a state of shock over the press conference yesterday. Republicans and even fox news are using strong language to condemn Trump and he doesn't react well to criticism. I think if he doesn't react at all it's probably the strongest evidence that he is in some way tied to Russian influence because any other even remote slight against him has been met with massive over reactions.

It's no better here, the commons vote yesterday means that a border can now only be in Ireland and we will veto that no matter what. It's now clearly no deal brexit or no brexit - they are the two options. The right wing press in a timely fashion is saying today that a no deal brexit wouldn't be that bad.

On the plus side Phil Hogan seems to have done a good deal for our agri business in the massive EU - Japan deal that will offset some of the damage of Brexit particularly for dairy farmers and whey producers.

Very little makes sense at the moment.



Evangelicals have a fond perspective of the end of the world and he would be the greatest zealot to sit in the oval office. If Trump was ousted over Russia with damage to the wider GOP in the process, Pence would have to react to that and things could get out of hand.

Bannon is still deeply, deeply connected to the White House. It's his people in there. He fell out with Trump so they hide his involvement, but he's extremely influential still. And that's exactly where the State Department's intervention with Robinson is coming from, the GOP have no skin in that game whatsoever while Bannon absolutely does. Which is why at the same time he's in London doing this

If Pence ever got near the oval office (and he won't), the first thing that would happen is the establishment GOP would descend on him like vultures and they'd quickly get him on a tight leash.

irishbucsfan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Bannon is still deeply, deeply connected to the White House. It's his people in there. He fell out with Trump so they hide his involvement, but he's extremely influential still. And that's exactly where the State Department's intervention with Robinson is coming from, the GOP have no skin in that game whatsoever while Bannon absolutely does. Which is why at the same time he's in London doing this

If Pence ever got near the oval office (and he won't), the first thing that would happen is the establishment GOP would descend on him like vultures and they'd quickly get him on a tight leash.

Pence is an empty suit so I'd tend to agree, but the people I fear most in this world are the religious fanatics because there is no logic at the core of most of their beliefs and misadventures.

I agree that Bannon still has influence on Trump and the white house and it's reported that they still talk. Stephen Miller is still front and centre within the white house and I don't know if they even need Bannon's influence with that modern day Goebbels around.

But while Miller is still within the GOP 'family' in the sense that the likes of Fox News will make excuses when he let's slip some of the crazy, Bannon is persona non grata with the political party of the White House and is in no way supported by them.

irishbucsfan

Deleted User wrote: »

Pence is an empty suit so I'd tend to agree, but the people I fear most in this world are the religious fanatics because there is no logic at the core of most of their beliefs and misadventures.

I agree that Bannon still has influence on Trump and the white house and it's reported that they still talk. Stephen Miller is still front and centre within the white house and I don't know if they even need Bannon's influence with that modern day Goebbels around.

But while Miller is still within the GOP 'family' in the sense that the likes of Fox News will make excuses when he let's slip some of the crazy, Bannon is persona non grata with the political party of the White House and is in no way supported by them.

Bannon doesn't need the support of the White House. He isn't looking for it either.

He's put Miller into the most desirable position possible. He's shifted the entire conversation to the right by several orders of magnitude and the people left behind are holding it there (and shifting it ever further to the right).

Now it very, very much looks like he's starting to do the same in Britain. Gerard Batten's antics and sudden interest in online alt-right trolls (who all announced in a big co-ordinated campaign that they had joined UKIP) is a massive change of focus for them (along with Nigel Farage's sudden coincidentally timed interest in returning). If Tommy Robinson announces he's joining UKIP on his emergence from jail, I reckon there's a big problem on the horizon for the UK and I don't think any of the major parties have the ability to fight against it.

Last week, Bannon hosted this event in London: https://www.politico.eu/article/steve-bannon-donald-trump-europopulists-london-ahead-of-trumps-visit/ - I'd love to see the full guest list of that.

irishbucsfan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Bannon doesn't need the support of the White House. He isn't looking for it either.

He's put Miller into the most desirable position possible. He's shifted the entire conversation to the right by several orders of magnitude and the people left behind are holding it there (and shifting it ever further to the right).

Now it very, very much looks like he's starting to do the same in Britain. Gerard Batten's antics and sudden interest in online alt-right trolls (who all announced in a big co-ordinated campaign that they had joined UKIP) is a massive change of focus for them (along with Nigel Farage's sudden coincidentally timed interest in returning). If Tommy Robinson announces he's joining UKIP on his emergence from jail, I reckon there's a big problem on the horizon for the UK and I don't think any of the major parties have the ability to fight against it.

Last week, Bannon hosted this event in London: https://www.politico.eu/article/steve-bannon-donald-trump-europopulists-london-ahead-of-trumps-visit/ - I'd love to see the full guest list of that.

That's interesting and worrying. Worrying again that the Tories have shown that their strategy against a political movement to their right is to move to the right with them.

On a slightly more positive note at least the right is divided in the UK for now. Tories probably hate UKIP more than they hate labour.

molloyjh

Isn't this all just further evidence of how badly major politicians and political parties have become disconnected from huge swathes of the people they govern? It's the gap between the "haves" and "have nots" (a term which is only ever relative to the "haves"). It's hardly the first time in history we've seen this sort of thing. People feel disenfranchised and downtrodden and look for someone to blame. If someone can provide a target for that then those people will begin to rally behind it. Ensuring the targets are "different" always works. Once enough people feel that way there's a shift in social attitudes and bad things start to happen. Those in control leading up to that, regardless of ability or motive, struggle to or can't stem the tide.

I could easily be talking about Brexit, Trump, Nazi Germany, the rise of communism etc etc. We're at the early stages of it all now, and the only real way to tackle it is to re-balance the playing field. Give people less to complain about and more to lose. But that's not exactly an easy thing to accomplish. The inherent imbalance in how we structure our societies inevitably leads to conflict like this. Might as well just pop down to the pub and have a pint. Because this stuff is circular. It'll pass and then come around again.

stephen_n

Yes but some of those cycles have far more violent outcomes than others. Though the advent of nuclear weapons means we will probably never see another world war. The rise of ultra nationalism can and will have devastating economic effects. The reality is though that capitalism like imperialism before it doesn’t work and is not sustainable, what it takes for things to change and what that change will look like is the real issue.

Dubinusa

Socialism does not work. Communism does not work. Imo, capitalism is better.
I think Trump will cut funding to the U.N. NATO will also be cut.
It should be noted that a lot yanks look at the U.N as an anti west pantomime.
NATO is not a big issue to America as Russia is not as powerful as it was in the past. Had lunch with some friends yesterday who all think the E.U should defend itself. The rise of nationalism over here is due to the "intolerant" left, according to my pal.
My friends don't see a world without borders or a nation (U.S.A) that defends "left wing Euros". They all agree that the Republicans are white and that the left is deranged.
Update from central Massachusetts.

molloyjh

Dubinusa wrote: »

Socialism does not work. Communism does not work. Imo, capitalism is better.
I think Trump will cut funding to the U.N. NATO will also be cut.
It should be noted that a lot yanks look at the U.N as an anti west pantomime.
NATO is not a big issue to America as Russia is not as powerful as it was in the past. Had lunch with some friends yesterday who all think the E.U should defend itself. The rise of nationalism over here is due to the "intolerant" left, according to my pal.
My friends don't see a world without borders or a nation (U.S.A) that defends "left wing Euros". They all agree that the Republicans are white and that the left is deranged.
Update from central Massachusetts.

Europe should defend itself from what exactly though? And how is the UN "anti-west" exactly?

The rise of nationalism has been caused by a few things I'd wager, not any 1 thing. The intolerance of "the left" is certainly a factor though. There is a smugness to a lot of the Democrat base where they simply see themselves as being better, more enlightened human beings. And anyone who doesn't agree with them is just a stupid hick. But it's no more prevalent than the blinkered and often irrational views held by many Republicans on Democrats. The amount of times I've seen the term Communist thrown around by Republicans is frightening. Frightening because it shows a clear lack of understanding about what Communism is and how vastly different it is from anything in mainstream American politics.

The global recession has played a massive part, but the sheer gulf between the top and the bottom, particularly in American society, ensured that this was always going to happen. A huge issue with the education system over there doesn't help either. The 2 party system also ensures a "your side or mine" type mindset. There's a host of reasons why things have gone as bad as they have. Anyone trying to boil it down to any 1 thing is massively oversimplifying things. But that's another issue. Most people would prefer a simple lie to a complex truth. There's less effort in the simple stuff, and there's limited time in the day for most.

Podge_irl

Dubinusa wrote: »

NATO will also be cut.

This doesn't make any sense in the context of what NATO actually is. Countries aren't paying into NATO.

molloyjh

Podge_irl wrote: »

This doesn't make any sense in the context of what NATO actually is. Countries aren't paying into NATO.

Someone ought to tell Trump that.

Dubinusa

Just relaying opinions. That's the boys opinions. I'll see a couple of guys 2morrow and get their input.
I will say that the U.N is a popular punching bag for most of my pals. There is one friend who's from Liverpool who absolutely loves Farage and despises the E.U. He flew home to support Brexit.

prawnsambo

Dubinusa wrote: »

Just relaying opinions. That's the boys opinions. I'll see a couple of guys 2morrow and get their input.
I will say that the U.N is a popular punching bag for most of my pals. There is one friend who's from Liverpool who absolutely loves Farage and despises the E.U. He flew home to support Brexit.

Well he won't have to suffer the consequences.

The one message I think doesn't get through strong enough is that there is no 'left' in the USA. Yet. But that could change as Democrats and Republicans continue to fight for essentially the same middle ground.

It's actually laughable that the Democrats could be described as the left. A smidgin left of the GOP perhaps, but it's a massive joke.

Squidgy Black

I honestly don't think Trump has any idea when it comes to budgeting and GDP figures.

He's come out and demanded that other nations up their contribution towards NATO to 4% much faster than the 2024 suggested deadline that was agreed a couple years ago.

I'm not sure if he's just attempting to run the country like he ran his companies (ie into millions of dollars of debt and declaring bankruptcy to just start again from scratch, but funnelling money into other projects where it couldn't be touched), or is genuinely just clueless.

stephen_n

Dubinusa wrote: »

Socialism does not work. Communism does not work. Imo, capitalism is better.
I think Trump will cut funding to the U.N. NATO will also be cut.
It should be noted that a lot yanks look at the U.N as an anti west pantomime.
NATO is not a big issue to America as Russia is not as powerful as it was in the past. Had lunch with some friends yesterday who all think the E.U should defend itself. The rise of nationalism over here is due to the "intolerant" left, according to my pal.
My friends don't see a world without borders or a nation (U.S.A) that defends "left wing Euros". They all agree that the Republicans are white and that the left is deranged.
Update from central Massachusetts.

Capitalism doesn’t work, nor do we actually live in capitalist societies. If we did the banks, insurance companies, car manufacturers etc who were bailed out with tax payers money, would have been allowed to fail. Because after all that’s how capitalism works. Please explain to me though why you think capitalism is better? When 1% of the worlds population own 75% of the worlds wealth and 80% of the worlds population live in poverty on less than $10 a day? If that’s success I’d hate to see what failure looks like.

Europe doesn’t need America to defend it from Russia. The posturing by the US about defense budgets is purely driven by the American arms industry. Like most things that come from America, it’s rich people trying to get richer. Russia is never going to invade a member state of the EU anymore than it would invade America. There is a far greater chance of the US invading Europe given the amount of conflicts they start around the world.

molloyjh

stephen_n wrote: »

Capitalism doesn’t work, nor do we actually live in capitalist societies. If we did the banks, insurance companies, car manufacturers etc who were bailed out with tax payers money, would have been allowed to fail. Because after all that’s how capitalism works. Please explain to me though why you think capitalism is better? When 1% of the worlds population own 75% of the worlds wealth and 80% of the worlds population live in poverty on less than $10 a day? If that’s success I’d hate to see what failure looks like.

Europe doesn’t need America to defend it from Russia. The posturing by the US about defense budgets is purely driven by the American arms industry. Like most things that come from America, it’s rich people trying to get richer. Russia is never going to invade a member state of the EU anymore than it would invade America. There is a far greater chance of the US invading Europe given the amount of conflicts they start around the world.

Capitalism is a flawed system, but it's flawed in the same way that people are. Hence it's probably the least worst model to follow. So long as, like anything else, it is properly overseen. Capitalism is an economic model, not a social one. And it has to fit within a social set-up. That social set-up needs to be able to curb the excesses of capitalism for the whole thing to work. Unfortunately, the soclal set-up we have cedes a lot of power to the wealthy. Particularly in the US. IMO the problem isn't capitalism at all. It's how we manage capitalism. After all, no citizen is perfect. And using laws etc we try to curb what we deem to be anti-social behaviour. The same principle should apply to capitalism.

It's about finding the right balance between regulation and freedom to trade etc. If a country can find, or get close to, that sweet spot then it can function very well. But that takes a lot of effort, not just from those at the top, but from everyone in society. The people are the checks and balances of the people managing the checks and balances. If we slack off, the whole thing goes to pot. And we've been slacking off in that regard for a long time.

Dubinusa

Well Cuba and Venezuela are the glories of socialism today. Venezuela is in freefall and Cuba is a ****box.
Capitalism is not perfect, but where else can people get a chance to improve their lot in life? DDR?, CCCP? They've all collapsed and the people suffered. There is a 1% in socialist society's and there always will be. I'll take capitalism all the time.

Squidgy Black

Dubinusa wrote: »

Well Cuba and Venezuela are the glories of socialism today. Venezuela is in freefall and Cuba is a ****box.
Capitalism is not perfect, but where else can people get a chance to improve their lot in life? DDR?, CCCP? They've all collapsed and the people suffered. There is a 1% in socialist society's and there always will be. I'll take capitalism all the time.

Cuba has suffered from an embargo with the US for the past century almost. Venezuela isn't a democratic society at all.

They're not exactly fair comparisons when you take countries that were essentially third world countries before socialism took place.

The Nordic model is probably the idealist version of a compromise between capitalism and socialism.

stephen_n

Dubinusa wrote: »

Well Cuba and Venezuela are the glories of socialism today. Venezuela is in freefall and Cuba is a ****box.
Capitalism is not perfect, but where else can people get a chance to improve their lot in life? DDR?, CCCP? They've all collapsed and the people suffered. There is a 1% in socialist society's and there always will be. I'll take capitalism all the time.

Funny that you pick two countries that the US both overtly and covertly has done everything in its power to destroy. Between multiple assasination attempts on their leaders, to crippling economic sanctions. Why don’t you use France or Norway as models? DDR and CCCP were not socialist states, they were an attempt at communism, which is quite different.

irishbucsfan

Dubinusa wrote: »

Well Cuba and Venezuela are the glories of socialism today. Venezuela is in freefall and Cuba is a ****box.
Capitalism is not perfect, but where else can people get a chance to improve their lot in life? DDR?, CCCP? They've all collapsed and the people suffered. There is a 1% in socialist society's and there always will be. I'll take capitalism all the time.

This is hilarious propaganda.

No one is arguing for autocracy. But the American right wing elite have managed to convince the electorate that the only alternative to their current system is Venezuela.

Meanwhile Northern Europe trot along happily as the obvious blatant example of why this is total scutter.

It’s a wonderful thing to be able to convince people if you are already rich and you want to stay that way though. An incredible job being done by the American establishment to convince people to vote against their own interests.

stephen_n

stephen_n wrote: »

Capitalism doesn’t work, nor do we actually live in capitalist societies. If we did the banks, insurance companies, car manufacturers etc who were bailed out with tax payers money, would have been allowed to fail. Because after all that’s how capitalism works. Please explain to me though why you think capitalism is better? When 1% of the worlds population own 75% of the worlds wealth and 80% of the worlds population live in poverty on less than $10 a day? If that’s success I’d hate to see what failure looks like.

Europe doesn’t need America to defend it from Russia. The posturing by the US about defense budgets is purely driven by the American arms industry. Like most things that come from America, it’s rich people trying to get richer. Russia is never going to invade a member state of the EU anymore than it would invade America. There is a far greater chance of the US invading Europe given the amount of conflicts they start around the world.

How about every second previous to the one you're reading this in having a worse expected quality of life for the average human?

By every objective measure conceivable the human race is progressing and life is getting better for us all.

A strong, strong recommendation for this book - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Factfulness-Reasons-Wrong-Things-Better/dp/1473637465

The author (RIP unfortunately) may be known to you and others as the genius behind GapMinder, Hans Rosling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo

https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen#t-290974

stephen_n

stephen_n wrote: »

Funny that you pick too countries that the US both overtly and covertly has done everything in its power to destroy. Between multiple assasination attempts on their leaders, to crippling economic sanctions. Why don’t you use France or Norway as models? DDR and CCCP were not socialist states, they were an attempt at communism, which is quite different.

No True Scotsman

Neil3030

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No True Scotsman

This isn't a fallacy. It's highlighting a core weakness of a socialist democracy. Namely, a more powerful neighbour systematically destabilizing it.