Summer 2018 - General Discussion

Gonzo

White Clover wrote: »

Is there any signs of high pressure building again? I wouldn't say no to a fine week, it's been a month since the hot weather ended!

next 7 to 10 days look mostly unsettled, the Jetstream is all fired up after several months of hibernation.

Meteorite58

The LE Orla blending into the greyness out in Fenit, Co. Kerry this evening at 21.00

Misty and humid conditions with low cloud, breezy. Currently 15.9C

mg1982

Weather forum has been quiet lately, might be down to the uneventful weather we been having.

It was another mainly dull but dry day but felt warm in any bright spells.

SleetAndSnow

Was a nice day in cork city. Warm with temps around 22/23 degree and sunny at times

Although the countryside has definitely greened up a bit here in the SE we are still very much in drought mode. We have only had 5.3mm of rain since the beginning of August and no sign of anything significant coming our way for the moment. Rivers are very low and it's impossible to judge what's in our well so we're still conserving water. Hard to believe such a small country can have such variation in rainfall between East and West!

irishgeo

whats the reason for this rain drizzle low cloud along the west coast, its quite depressing.

sryanbruen

irishgeo wrote: »

whats the reason for this rain drizzle low cloud along the west coast, its quite depressing.

Southwesterly winds.

Gonzo

feeling pleasantly warm today compared to the past few days, currently 19C with some sunny glimpses but mostly cloudy.

km79

Dull
Damp
Depressing

SleetAndSnow

overcast, warm and humid in Cork but dry

Mobhi1

It's warm and breezy here in Glasnevin today. There was 0.2mm rain recorded earlier and it's been mostly cloudy with sunny spells ever since.

Graces7

sryanbruen wrote: »

Southwesterly winds.

Yep. This is the wind direction that cuts us off from the mainland...wild and wet out there and my new hens are moaning

DOCARCH

Sunny with some decent blue skies in Dublin 16. 22.1c atm.

irishgeo

id rather it rain for a few hours and piss off than have this damp dreary low cloud all day.

Xenji

16.2C in Castlebar, overcast with 6.8mm of rain so far today, looks like it could be a similar pattern here for the rest of the week.

Mobhi1

Mobhi1 wrote: »

It's warm and breezy here in Glasnevin today. There was 0.2mm rain recorded earlier and it's been mostly cloudy with sunny spells ever since.

21.2C now.

Elmer Blooker

The unpleasant, muggy and gloomy theme that has dominated this month goes on and on and on ....
I can't wait for a fresh and sunny Pm day on Thursday but it looking like we're back in the Tm rubbish for Friday and the weekend.

Kutebride

I got sunburnt yesterday. :eek::mad: Dope.
I wont get sunburnt today as it is very overcast and dark.

sryanbruen

We're almost at the point where I produce preliminary analogues for the Autumn 2018. If you do not know what this is, it's when I bring every analogue together, find the years that came up most frequently and then look at the Autumns of those years.

For this post, we're going to be looking at Autumns that followed on from positive NAO Junes. June 2018's NAO figure of 1.41 was one of the most positive values on record showing just how ridgey the Azores High was in June 2018 along with how deep the low pressure was over Greenland as shown by the reanalysis below. I looked at Junes that had a mean monthly NAO of at least 0.50 on my blog. We'll be cutting this down to Junes that had at least 1.00 for this post because they're the more important ones.



The 500mb height anomaly reanalysis of these Autumns overall looks very mild and rather settled but perhaps some invasions from the jet stream at times as the high is centred over central Europe. Let's look at the month to month variation of these Autumns overall.



The Septembers of these Autumns look unsettled and cool to very cool perhaps. Above average heights to the southeast of Europe and over Greenland (northern blocking) with below average heights over Scandinavia, through the UK and into the Atlantic. The low over Scandinavia could suggest the possibility of northerly winds at times.



The Octobers of these Autumns look anticyclonic but the high pressure is aligned to central Europe much like the Autumn reanalysis. Low pressure is over Greenland in contrast to September. There is another ridge out in the mid-Atlantic. Overall, quite an anticyclonic signal. It would also be perhaps mild to very mild again in contrast to September.



The Novembers look exceptionally mild with a huge area of stubborn above average heights to the south of the UK. Apart from the north of Scotland, it looks very settled too. It'd be interesting to see a November as exceptionally mild and settled as this reanalysis suggests because usually when there is a very mild November, it's wet and windy such as 2015.



One successful signal I have seen in the analogues is for some sort of mild and wet November but whilst this analogue suggests a very mild November, it's most certainly not wet away from the north of Scotland.

km79

In many ways today has been the worst day of summer
So dull and heavy heavy drizzle
Can’t get anything done outside
Lights on

Wasn’t expecting it to be so dreary which is part of it I suppose
Rest of week doesn’t look as wet as it looked a few days ago though

km79

It's getting dark

Mobhi1

Beautiful day here now. It's mostly sunny and 21.1C. Although it is a bit breezy.

ANDREWMUFC

Like a dark winters day in galway

Tigerandahalf

The very south east coastline is basking in sunshine while there appears to be rain in the north west on the radar.

Meteorite58

I wonder will we notice anything over here .

https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1029457750152097792

Xenji

We had 17.1mm of rain today in Castlebar, easily on track to have our 11th 100+mm August in a row.

SleetAndSnow

Not a great start in cork city. Drove up from west cork and misting the entire way.

DOCARCH

Xenji wrote: »

We had 17.1mm of rain today in Castlebar....

That's nuts! Not a drop in (my part of) Dublin yesterday. I see 20.0mm recorded yesterday at Newport.

sryanbruen

Sunny and fairly misty start in Dublin 13. Was not expecting it to be sunny.

sryanbruen

Sunny and fairly misty start in Dublin 13. Was not expecting it to be sunny. I need a holiday after all this forecasting uncertainty.